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AbstractThis paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia – both regions being predominantly characterised by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities – spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability and dynamics of the Asian monsoon (AM, hereafter indicates both of the summer and winter monsoons.) at orbital and millennial timescales has attracted wide interest. Chinese loess deposits, covering an area of ~500 × 103 km2 and with a thickness of several tens to more than three hundred meters, is an ideal continental archive to reconstruct AM variations during the Quaternary epoch. Over the past thirty years, since the earliest paper published in an international journal that linked the Asian monsoon and Chinese loess deposits, many studies have been undertaken focusing on this research topic. These results have greatly deepened our understanding of the variations of the AM climate and their driving mechanisms during the past ~2.6 Myr. In this paper, we emphasize recent progress on the AM variability and dynamics revealed by Chinese loess records; in particular, we discuss the reliability and precision of the timescale and the monsoon proxy indicators for the loess-paleosol sequences, which are two fundamental aspects for understanding AM behavior. We analyze what we know and discuss what we do not know about the AM. We refine the timescale for the typical loess-paleosol sequence in the central Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), which can be used as a new timescale to study palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental changes in the monsoonal Asia. We conclude that low-latitude insolation changes induced by precession, and global ice volume, temperature at high-latitudes, as well as sea-level changes forced variations of the AM at orbital time scales. High-latitude cooling events and low-latitude hydroclimate process at millennial time scales, such as climate changes associated with Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in Northern Atlantic and Greenland, have also modulated AM variability. We suggest that high-latitude forcing of AM variations occurs through ocean and atmospheric circulation linkages, although the roles of atmospheric CO 2 , ocean and vegetation feedbacks need further investigation. In future study, high-resolution independent dating, novel proxy indices and transient numerical simulations are still basic tools to understand the loess deposition and AM variations that require considerably more work. Issues such as reliable spatial comparison and regional linkages of records (dependent on precise and accurate numerical chronologies), and quantitative reconstruction of the AM variations, should be given priority in the study the past climate change in Asia, and low-latitude hydroclimate process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high mountain regions of Asia contain more glacial ice than anywhere on the planet outside of the polar regions. Because of the large population living in the Indus watershed region who are reliant on melt from these glaciers for fresh water, understanding the factors that affect glacial melt along with the impacts of climate change on the region is important for managing these natural resources. While there are multiple climate data products (e.g., reanalysis and global climate models) available to study the impact of climate change on this region, each product will have a different amount of skill in projecting a given climate variable, such as precipitation. In this research, we develop a spatially varying mixture model to compare the distribution of precipitation in the High Mountain Asia region as produced by climate models with the corresponding distribution from in situ observations from the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) data product. Parameter estimation is carried out via a computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Each of the estimated climate distributions from each climate data product is then validated against APHRODITE using a spatially varying Kullback–Leibler divergence measure. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a systematic literature review was conducted to synthesize understanding on farmers' perception on climate change. Farmers' perception of climate change is conceptualized as comprising of three dimensions—first, as farmers' "awareness"; second, "conceptual understanding"; and third, the "experience" of climate change. The review included 162 papers published during the period January 2000 to July 2019. The highest number of studies was conducted in Africa, followed by Asia. A large majority of farmers report being aware of climate change. However, only a few studies elicit the difference between climate variability and climate change from farmers. A negligible number of studies attempt to identify the role of agricultural activities in greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Furthermore, authors compare farmers' perception with meteorological evidence, which is more aligned in terms of change in "temperature" rather than "precipitation." The insights from the review provide guidance on conceptualization and operationalization of the variable "farmers' perception of climate change" for future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health. • Frequency of hot-dry events and hot-humidity events will increase and decrease, respectively, in the future. • There are abrupt points and periodicity in the future time series of compound temperature and precipitation extremes. • Asia is projected to have the greatest exposure and climate change contributes the most to exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Food- and water-borne diseases (FWBD) are among climate and environmental sensitive infectious diseases. Climate change can highly exacerbate FWBD through vulnerable water systems. Highlights • Food- and water-borne diseases (FWBD) are a major cause of mortality and morbidity. • Africa counts 91 million people falling ill and 137,000 dying per year by FWBD. • Climate change could increase FWBD through bad water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). • Floods' vulnerability maps of drinking water systems are important for prevention. • Appropriate WASH interventions can significantly contribute in reducing FWBD under climate change. Abstract This paper provides a view of the major facts and figures related to infectious diseases with a focus on food-borne and water-borne diseases and their link with environmental factors and climate change. The global burden of food-borne diseases for 31 selected hazards was estimated by the World Health Organization at 33 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2010 with 40% of this burden concentrated among children under 5 years of age. The highest burden per population of food-borne diseases is found in Africa, followed by Southeast Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean sub-regions. Unsafe water used for the cleaning and processing of food is a key risk factors contributing to food-borne diseases. The role of quality and quantity of water to the general burden of infectious diseases deserves attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, as its effects go beyond the food chain. Water-related infectious diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and climate change effects will exacerbate the challenges for the public health sector for both food-borne and water-borne diseases. Selected case studies from Africa and Asia show that (i) climate change extreme events, such as floods, may exacerbate the risks for infectious diseases spreading through water systems, and (ii) improvements related to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene could result in a significant reduction of intestinal parasitic infections among school-aged children. There is a need to better anticipate the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases and fostering multi-stakeholder engagement and multi-sectoral collaborations for integrated interventions at schools, community and household levels. The paper calls for giving priority to improving the environmental conditions affecting food-borne and water-borne infectious diseases under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The westerly jet (WJ) is an important component of atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by prominent seasonal variations in intensity and position. However, the response of the WJ over Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is still not clear. Using general circulation model experiments, the seasonal behaviors of the WJ over central Asia and Japan are analyzed in this paper. The results show that, compared to the present day (PD), the WJ presents a complicated response during the LGM, both in intensity and position. Over central Asia, it becomes weaker in both summer and winter. But over Japan, it is enhanced in summer but becomes diminished in winter. In terms of position, the WJ over central Asia shifts southward in both summer and winter, whereas the WJ over Japan moves southward in summer but does not change obviously relative to PD in winter. Such WJ changes are well explained by meridional temperature gradients in high troposphere, which is closely linked to seasonal thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Despite cooler LGM conditions, the anomalous warming center over the TP becomes stronger in summer. Derived from the heat budget equation, the stronger heating center is mainly caused by the weaker adiabatic cooling generated from ascending motion over the area south of the TP. In winter, the cooling over the TP is also strengthened, mostly owing to the subsidence-induced weaker adiabatic heating. Due to the importance of the WJ, the potential role of TP thermal effects should be a focus when explaining the East Asian climate change during the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of global temperature during Holocene is crucial for understanding the mechanisms of climate change and future climate trends. However, there is a discrepancy between the temperature trends reconstructed from proxy and model, which is attributed to the seasonal biases and the appearance of the Holocene thermal maximum was dominated by the temperature of the warm season. In this paper, fossil charcoal assemblages from the southern Chinese Loess Plateau were analysed to provide quantitative mean annual temperatures (MAT) and four-season temperature records during 6.55–3.45 cal ka BP. The results indicate that both the seasonal temperatures and MAT during the middle Holocene reached warm peaks between 5.55 and 5.35 cal ka BP. The similar trend between the winter temperature (WIT) and MAT denotes the highest contribution of WIT changes to the MAT in the study area since the mid-Holocene. • Flowering functional group was used to reconstruct spring-autumn temperature. • Nonhardy plants were used to reconstruct winter temperature. • Winter temperature contributed the most to the annual temperature since mid-Holocene. • Middle-Holocene temperature was not showing a long-term warming trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying and explaining changes in the prehistoric material and social world is one of the greatest research interests in archaeology, palaeoclimate and environmental science. In the last two decades or so, a considerable number of studies have made significant contributions to the associated disciplines in eastern Asian archaeology. However, due to the more specialised scientific approaches and the rapid accumulation of new excavation materials, it becomes increasingly difficult for scholars to examine and correlate research outputs from different areas and achieve a holistic picture of the past. Using eastern Asian archaeology as an example, this Special Issue aims to break down the disciplinary boundaries and present the current research debate on how to correlate different climate, environmental and social changes and explain human past. One of the fundamental issues is the lack of adequate chronological resolution to order various archaeological events. To tackle this, a large number of radiocarbon dates, primarily derived from short- lived materials, are provided in the Special Issue. A great variety of changes in local environment, agricultural practice, animal husbandry, technologies, migration, demography and social organisations are revealed in the following papers but there are two profound drivers to all of these changes. One is the broad climate change since the start of the Holocene and the other is the communication between the West and the East. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil erosion is part of the erosion-sedimentation cycle and a type of land degradation that can be caused by poor land management. This is expected to be exacerbated by climate change. The rainfall erosivity factor (R) of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) family of soil erosion models is one of the most important parameters being studied because it is heavily influenced by climate change. The determination of the R factor necessitates high-frequency precipitation data, which are unavailable for a significant portion of the globe. For decades, researchers in data-sparse regions have estimated the R factor using empirical equations that required only monthly or annual rainfall data. Unfortunately, many of these equations are outdated and susceptible to misuse. This study presents an empirical R equation based on the Modified Fournier Index (MFI) that has caused probably one of the most widespread and unnoticed errors in soil erosion research for at least 33 years. Our exhaustive literature search and analysis uncovered 125 papers with 28 incorrect R equation formulations. We discovered that the earliest incorrect publication dates back to 1989, and most of the studies were conducted in Asia (China and India). The 125 published papers have similar citation characteristics (three citations per year per paper) as other papers in the field of soil erosion modelling, and many of the 125 papers were published in well-known scientific journals. Together, they have been cited over 3300 times by international researchers. In addition, the number of incorrect papers has increased dramatically over the past few years (2015–2021), indicating that the equation is spreading more frequently than the general publication trend. Since using an incorrect R equation can result in a significant bias in estimating the R factor and, consequently, soil erosion, the incorrect use could significantly bias numerous studies. The inaccuracy also hinders global efforts like the "Global Applications of Soil Erosion Modelling Tracker (GASEMT)" to synthesize soil erosion studies worldwide to shed light on the global problem of soil erosion and to promote environmental education. Consequently, the primary objective of this paper is to contribute to the recognition of the use of incorrect R equations, thereby reducing or even preventing their further spread and thus limiting the number of studies publishing biased results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the possible influence of external forcings on observed changes in precipitation extremes in the mid-to-high latitudes of Asia during 1958–2012 and attempts to identify particular extreme precipitation indices on which there are better chances to detect the influence of external forcings. We compare a recently compiled dataset of observed extreme indices with those from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations using an optimal fingerprinting method. We consider six indices that characterize different aspects of extreme precipitation, including annual maximum amount of precipitation falling in 1 day (Rx1day) or 5 days (Rx5day), the total amount of precipitation from the top 5% or top 1% daily amount on wet days, and the fraction of the annual total precipitation from these events. For single-signal analysis, the fingerprints of external forcings including anthropogenic agents are robustly detected in most studied extreme indices over all Asia and for midlatitude Asia but not for high-latitude Asia. For two-signal analysis, anthropogenic influence is detectable in these indices over Asia at 5% or slightly less than 5% significance level, whereas natural influence is not detectable. In high-latitude Asia, anthropogenic influence is detected only in a fractional index, representing a stark contrast to the midlatitude and full Asia results. We find relatively smaller internal variability and thus higher signal-to-noise ratio in the fractional indices when compared with the other ones. Our results point to the need for studying precipitation extreme indices that are less affected by internal variability while still representing the relevant nature of precipitation extremes to improve the possibility of detecting a forced signal if one is present in the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Production, transport and deposition of aeolian dust from land to sea closely interact with regional environment and global climate. This Special Issue addresses transport of aeolian dust from the Asian inland to the Loess Plateau and North Pacific Ocean and their possible links to oceanic ecosystem, global climate and even human activity, over various timescales. The papers in this volume are multidisciplinary in nature and include sedimentology, mineralogy, geochemistry, environmental magnetism and climate modelling on multi-timescales from interannual, glacial–interglacial to tectonic timescales. Based on modern observation, geological records and modelling, this Special Issue offers new insights especially into aeolian provenance, dynamics controls on dust production, a novel marine aeolian proxy, as well as long-term aeolian input to the marginal basins of NE Asia and its influence on oceanic productivity. This issue provides a good example for future comprehensive studies of source-to-sink processes of Asian dust from land to sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy–water–land nexus represents a critical leverage future policies must draw upon to reduce trade-offs between sustainable development objectives. Yet, existing long-term planning tools do not provide the scope or level of integration across the nexus to unravel important development constraints. Moreover, existing tools and data are not always made openly available or are implemented across disparate modeling platforms that can be difficult to link directly with modern scientific computing tools and databases. In this paper, we present the NExus Solutions Tool (NEST): a new open modeling platform that integrates multi-scale energy–water–land resource optimization with distributed hydrological modeling. The new approach provides insights into the vulnerability of water, energy and land resources to future socioeconomic and climatic change and how multi-sectoral policies, technological solutions and investments can improve the resilience and sustainability of transformation pathways while avoiding counterproductive interactions among sectors. NEST can be applied at different spatial and temporal resolutions, and is designed specifically to tap into the growing body of open-access geospatial data available through national inventories and the Earth system modeling community. A case study analysis of the Indus River basin in south Asia demonstrates the capability of the model to capture important interlinkages across system transformation pathways towards the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, including the intersections between local and regional transboundary policies and incremental investment costs from rapidly increasing regional consumption projected over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews recent advances regarding land–atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its climatic impacts. Thermal forcing over the TP interacts strongly with that over the Iranian Plateau, forming a coupled heating system that elevates the tropopause, generates a monsoonal meridional circulation over South Asia and creates conditions of large-scale ascent favorable for Asian summer monsoon development. TP heating leads to intensification and westward extension (northward movement) of the South Asian High (Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone), and exerts strong impacts on upstream climate variations from North Atlantic to West Asia. It also affects oceanic circulation and buoyancy fields via atmospheric stationary wave trains and air–sea interaction processes, contributing to formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The TP thermal state and atmospheric–oceanic conditions are highly interactive and Asian summer monsoon variability is controlled synergistically by internal TP variability and external forcing factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of climate change, it is essential to rethink how we build to reduce the environmental impact of the construction industry. Timber construction can be a solution to reduce the use of concrete or steel, whose manufacture emits much CO 2. This paper proposes a method to reinterpret tenon and mortise joints for construction. Friction-based assemblies, particularly mortise and tenon wooden joints, have been studied for centuries in Asia and Europe and may offer promising constructive solutions, such as allowing disassembling rather than demolishing a structure. These assemblies can be complex; they initially required a great deal of craftsmanship, which robotics can now replace to manufacture and assemble them. Nevertheless, it is necessary to develop methods to produce these robotic joints. Our method uses non-sequential assemblies, which are by definition, opposed to sequential assemblies. An assembly is said to be sequential when the elements that compose it are assembled one after the other, in a defined order or not. For a non-sequential assembly, all the elements that compose it are in motion and assembled simultaneously. This assembly method has the particularity of being locked only by its kinematics, which makes it possible to easily (dis)assemble the elements by only knowing their motion. After an introduction and defining the terms and hypotheses of our research, we discuss the related word. In the fourth section, the developed method is explained. Then, we introduce the different parameters to control the assembly's design and kinematics. After that, we extend the previous method to the third dimension. Finally, a construction prototype demonstrates the method's efficiency. [Display omitted] • Generality: our method works for pure translation, in 2D or 3D. • Exhaustivity: any kinematic can be generate thanks to parallel transformation. • Control: calculations and parameters are given to choose the kinematics according to external factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ancient irrigation systems (AISs) have been providing a multitude of ecosystem services to rural farming and urban communities in Asia and Africa, especially in arid and semi-arid climatic areas with low rainfall. Many AISs, however have now been degraded. A systematic analysis of AISs on their typologies, causes of degradation, and their ecosystem services is lacking. The objective of this review was to synthesize the knowledge on AISs on their typologies, status and causes of degradation, ecosystem services and functions, and identify gaps in research in Asia and Africa. A critical review of peer-reviewed journal papers, conference and workshop proceedings, book chapters, grey literature, and country reports was conducted. Qualitative and quantitative information from journal papers were used to conceptualize the typologies and analyze the status and causes of degradation, and ecosystems services and functions provided by the AISs. Based on the review, we classified AISs into three groups by source of irrigation water: Rainwater harvesting system (RHS) with small reservoirs, ground water based system, and floodwater based system. The RHSs, which used to receive reliable rainfall and managed by well cohesive social organizations for their maintenance and functioning in past, have now been silting due to extreme rainfall pattern and breakdown of the cohesive organizations in recent decades. In ground water based systems, indiscriminate development of deep tube wells causing siltation of channels has been a major challenge. In floodwater irrigation systems, irregular rainfall in the highlands and the breakage of irrigation structures by destructive floods were the main causes of degradation. Lack of maintenance and increased soil erosion, inadequate skilled manpower, and declining support from the government for repair and maintenance were the main causes of degradation of all AISs. The main ecosystem service provided by all AISs is water for agriculture. In tank- and pond-based systems, fish farming is also practiced. Tank irrigation systems provide various types of provisioning, regulatory, cultural and supporting services, especially in India and Sri Lanka. Ground water based systems provide water for domestic purposes and various cultural services. Floodwater based systems provide water for power generation and wildlife habitat maintenance and help in flood control. The knowledge generated through the review provide evidence-based information, and help aware governments, private sectors and development agencies for improved policy planning and decision making, and prioritizing the restoration, rehabilitation, and management of various AISs. Community Managed Ancient Irrigation Systems in Asia and Africa: Typologies, Degradation and Ecosystem services. [Display omitted] • Ancient irrigation systems (AISs) in Asia and Africa provide a multitude of benefits to mankind but are at a threat of degradation. • A systematic review conducted to identify typologies, status and causes of degradation of, and ecosystems services provided by, AISs. • Three typologies (rainwater harvesting, groundwater, and surface water based) and four ecosystems services identified. • Cascade tanks in Sri Lanka and India provide irrigation water for farming communities and ecosystem services for local communities and societies. • Rehabilitation of AISs needs urgent attention by governments, private sector, and development partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As reported in previous studies, global warming has caused a clear uptick in dryland areas since the 1950s. Meanwhile, the accelerated expansion of drylands has become particularly evident over the past 40 years, with dry/wet patterns showing significant differences prior to and after 1980. This paper uses the Precipitation/Potential evaporation (P/PET) index to analyze changes occurring in the dry/wet structure of various spatial and temporal scales during 1948–2008. The results show the emergence of complex aridity changes on a regional scale. While aridity generally decreased in the drylands of Asia during 1948–2008, the change in aridity was opposite in the drylands of the American and African continents between 1948 and 1979 and 1980–2008. Specifically, drylands in the American continent showed a wetting tendency during 1948–1979 and a drying tendency during 1980–2008, whereas drylands in the African continent underwent significant drying during 1948–1979 followed by subtle wetting in 1980–2008. Even though rapid warming since the 1980s has become an increasingly important cause of the recent global drying trend, especially in East and Central Asia, the changes in aridity in the American and African drylands is attributable to natural variabilities in precipitation associated with multi-decadal surface sea temperature changes, along with large-scale circulation patterns. • Dry/wet patterns in dryland areas show significant differences in the decades prior to and after 1980. • The change in aridity was opposite in American and African drylands between 1948–1979 and 1980–2008. • Aridity changes in American and African drylands are closely related to multi-decadal changes in surface sea temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Fluctuations in glacier mass and volume are indicative of changes in the climate system. They also strongly affect regional climate and hydrology. In this paper, we explore possible relationships between the radial growth of Schrenk spruce (Picea schren kiana Fisch. et Mey) and the mass balance of the Tsentralniy Tuyuksuyskiy (TS. Tuyuksuyskiy) Glacier, which is located on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in arid central Asia. We attempt to reconstruct the historical mass balance variability of the TS. Tuyuksuyskiy glacier using tree-ring widths and stable carbon isotope chronologies. The reconstruction is able to explain 62.1% of the variance in the annual glacier mass balance record over the 1965–2014 calibration period. We also analyzed centennial mass balance variability and its linkages to climate change. The TS.Tuyuksuyskiy glacier has a negative annual mass balance in most years and, since 1968, has undergone the most rapid and longest melting process in the past 166 years. The mass balance change of the glacier is controlled by the combination of temperature and precipitation conditions. This study could be useful for more detailed glaciological, hydrological, and climatological assessments in this portion of the Tianshan Mountains. Highlights • The reconstruction of glacial changes using tree ring widths and stable carbon isotopes is reliable in arid central Asia. • The TS.Tuyuksuyskiy glacier has had a negative annual mass balance for most of the past 166 years. • The mass balance change of the glacier is controlled by the combination of temperature and precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The critical nature of a seaport is a connection point. In addition to the effect on port operations, a port disruption will be a strain on trade flows and the various parties concerned. Climate change, oil spill, security, social and political instability are increasing concerns over the years which would lead to higher risks. With significant growing trade volume in Asia, there is a pressing need for comprehensive studies to prepare ports for disruptions. This paper aims to analyse and categorise the disruptions that have occurred in Asian ports and estimate the likelihood of recurrence based on the data since the year 1900. Results reveal a rising trend of disruptive events. Natural disasters and labour strikes are the two main causes of port disruptions, while natural disasters lead to the highest severity in terms of cargo tons affected. Mitigation strategies proposed in terms of both preventive and reactive measures are specifically designed to reduce the likelihood and severity of the various types of port disruptions. The paper provides recommendations on risk mitigation for relevant parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that to understand the relevance of developmental states in East Asia and elsewhere, we need to focus on the changing development agenda in the early twenty-first century, especially how this connects with the global challenge of climate change and thereby sustainable, low-carbon development. It combines theories on state capacity and ecological modernisation to form the 'new developmentalism' concept. This is applied to study revitalised and refocused forms of state capacity aimed at realising the transformative economic objectives associated with sustainable development. New developmentalism helps us understand not only current state capacity practice in a climate challenged world but also how we have moved beyond original conceptions of developmental statism. It may be understood in the wider context of the sustainable development agenda and climate interventionism. As is argued, new developmentalism is most clearly evident in East Asia but can be applied in a wider geographic sense where strong forms of developmental state capacity are exercised towards meeting transformative sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive and integrative view of East Asian monsoon evolution during the Holocene is still under debate, and additional high-resolution proxy records from climatically sensitive locations are requisite to solve this complex issue. In this paper, we present three well-dated mud/peat cores from a paleo-pingo depression in the Sanjiang Plain, a climatically sensitive region to monsoon variation, to reveal the paleoenvironmental history of the wetland and discuss the regional impacts from monsoon evolution. A paleolake developed in the study area before 5.5 ka BP, and a peatland initiated thereafter consequent upon the gradual shrinking of the paleolake. This transition lasted until 4.5 ka BP, when the paleolake changed entirely to a wetland. Considering the prevalent monsoon climate in the Sanjiang Plain, we suggest that the lake-to-wetland transition from 5.5 to 4.5 ka BP indicates a rapid decline of the East Asian summer monsoon in addition to autogenic basin infilling processes. Such a remarkable monsoon weakening event has been documented across northern China, and we associate this with ocean–atmosphere interactions throughout low-latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The growing cities in developing Asia require a massive provision of infrastructure, public transportation, housing and jobs for their population, as well as a healthy environment. On the other hand, urban Asia contributes increasingly to climate change, and suffers its impacts. The climate co-benefits approach in this paper refers to the development and implementation of policies and strategies that simultaneously contribute to addressing climate change and solving local environmental problems, which also have other development impacts. The co-benefits approach is important especially for developing countries, which have to overcome many challenges simultaneously with limited capacities and resources. Thus, the objective of this paper is to examine the main obstacles, opportunities and challenges to implementation of environmental co-benefit related policies in urban areas. The paper focuses primarily upon sub-national processes, particularly in cities in developing countries, but the research also looked into the links of sub-national processes to national and international processes. The paper relies on the results of research done in China, Indonesia and India. It offers a series of lessons for understanding initiatives that generated co-benefits and the factors that influence them. This paper provides insight on successful ways to promote, design and implement the urban co-benefits approach in urban areas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The initial collision between Indian and Asian continents marked the starting point for transformation of land-sea thermal contrast, uplift of the Tibet-Himalaya orogen, and climate change in Asia. In this paper, we review the published literatures from the past 30 years in order to draw consensus on the processes of initial collision and suturing that took place between the Indian and Asian plates. Following a comparison of the different methods that have been used to constrain the initial timing of collision, we propose that the tectono-sedimentary response in the peripheral foreland basin provides the most sensitive index of this event, and that paleomagnetism presents independent evidence as an alternative, reliable, and quantitative research method. In contrast to previous studies that have suggested collision between India and Asia started in Pakistan between ca. 55 Ma and 50 Ma and progressively closed eastwards, more recent researches have indicated that this major event first occurred in the center of the Yarlung Tsangpo suture zone (YTSZ) between ca. 65 Ma and 63 Ma and then spreading both eastwards and westwards. While continental collision is a complicated process, including the processes of deformation, sedimentation, metamorphism, and magmatism, different researchers have tended to define the nature of this event based on their own understanding, an intuitive bias that has meant that its initial timing has remained controversial for decades. Here, we recommend the use of reconstructions of each geological event within the orogenic evolution sequence as this will allow interpretation of collision timing on the basis of multidisciplinary methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As many water related disasters occur frequently around the world, proper assessment of future climate change impact on floods and droughts is essential. In this study, we focused on basin-scale climate change impact assessment as necessary information for studying adaptation measures on the basis of integrated water resources management. We used Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) 3.2S (20 km grid super high resolution model) and a series of simulation methods for climate change analysis. We conducted a comparative study on changes in precipitation, flood discharge and inundation in the future during the wet and dry seasons for five target river basins in the Asian monsoon area. We found that regional precipitation outputs from the high resolution model in this study were in good agreement in the point of tendency of their changes in wet and dry monsoon seasons with the regional precipitation analysis in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group 1 (WG1) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013). This study illustrated that the proposed methodology can make more detailed descriptions of climate change possible. The study also found the importance of basin-scale runoff and inundation analysis with downscaling especially for basins where floods occur for a short period, suggesting potential differences between flood change and precipitation change from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs such as maximum 5-day precipitation index in a basin. As a result, this paper confirms the importance of basin-scale discharge and inundation analysis for climate change considering basin characteristics from the viewpoint of river management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses Chinese sub-national governments' implementation strategies to meet national energy efficiency targets in the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010). Previous research has focused on the ways governance practices and decision-making structures shape implementation outcomes, yet very little attention has been given to what strategies local leaders actually employ to bridge national priorities with local interests. To illustrate how local leaders work politically, this paper highlights specific implementation methods officials use to strengthen formal incentives and create effective informal incentives to comply with energy efficiency mandates. The analysis is drawn from 53 interviews conducted in June and July of 2010 in Shanxi, a major coal-producing and energy-intensive province. Findings suggest that local government leaders conform to national directives by "bundling" the energy efficiency policy with policies of more pressing local importance or by "bundling" their energy efficiency objectives with the interests of groups with significant political influence. Ultimately, sub-national government officials frame policies in ways that give them legitimacy at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For well over a century, scholars from across the social and biological sciences have been trying to understand the origins and spread of agriculture. This debate is often intertwined with discussions of climate change and human environmental impact. Over the past decade, this debate has spread into Central Eurasia, from western China to Ukraine and southern Russia to Turkmenistan, a part of the world often thought to have been largely dominated by pastoralists. A growing interest in the prehistory of Central Eurasia has spurred a new chapter in the origins of agriculture debate; archaeobotanical research is showing how important farming practices in this region were in regard to the spread of crops across the Old World. While early people living in Central Eurasia played an influential role in shaping human history, there is still limited understanding of the trajectories of social evolution among these populations. In March 2015, 30 leading scholars from around the globe came together in Berlin, Germany, to discuss the introduction and intensification of agriculture in Central Eurasia and adjacent regions. At the German Archaeological Institute in Berlin (Deutsches Archäologisches Institut, DAI), these scholars presented novel data on topics covering East, South, and Central Asia, spanning a wide realm of methodological approaches. The present special edition volume deals with a selection of the papers given at this conference, and it marks a significant step toward recognizing the contribution of Central Eurasian populations in the spread and development of agricultural systems over the course of the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finance has become a crucial agenda in climate change negotiations in recent years. Meanwhile, multilateral negotiations on climate change as a whole are making meager progress, and increasingly observed are activities by national governments and transnational non-state actors. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how investment towards low-carbon development could be materialized in Asia. A thorough review of current financial assistance for developing countries in Asia was conducted, and the amount of funding proved to be relatively modest to achieve the aim. We then examined financial policy instruments that could be implemented in the region. We estimated that USD125–149 billion per year would be needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the region by 2035. We also estimated that more than a half of this amount of funding could be achieved by public sector if several key policy instruments were agreed upon and enacted at regional and national levels in Asia. The role of private sector investment was also found to be indispensable in fulfilling all the long-term investment needs related to climate mitigation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) strength is probably one of the most challenging and crucial issues for climate prediction over East Asia. In this paper, a statistical method called partial-least square (PLS) regression is utilized to uncover principal sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the winter preceding the EASM. Results show that the SST pattern of the first PLS mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (or cooling) phase of a mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (mega-ENSO) (a leading mode of interannual-to-interdecadal variations of global SST), whereas that of the second PLS mode leads the warming/cooling mega-ENSO by about 1 year, signaling precursory conditions for mega-ENSO. These indicate that mega-ENSO may provide a critical predictability source for the EASM strength. Based on a 40-year training period (1958-1997), a PLS prediction model is constructed using the two leading PLS modes and 3-month-lead hindcasts are performed for the validation period of 1998-2013. A promising skill is obtained, which is comparable to the ensemble mean of versions 3 and 4 of the Canadian Community Atmosphere Model (CanCM3/4) hindcasts from the newly developed North American Multi-model Ensemble Prediction System regarding the interannual variations of the EASM strength. How to improve dynamical model simulation of the EASM is also examined through comparing the CanCM3/4 hindcast (1982-2010) with the 106-year historical run (1900-2005) by the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). CanCM3/4 exhibits a high skill in the EASM hindcast period 1982-2010 during which it also has a better performance in capturing the relationship between the EASM and mega-ENSO. By contrast, the simulation skill of CanESM2 is quite low and it is unable to reproduce the linkage between the EASM and mega-ENSO. All these results emphasize importance of mega-ENSO in seasonal prediction and dynamical model simulation of the EASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) records during late Neogene to early Quaternary from the Lantian loess section near the southern margin of the Chinese Loess Plateau. The AMS results for this site are shown to reflect variations in the direction of the paleomonsoon. The Lantian loess sediments are largely aeolian in origin, but also include a thin layer that exhibits secondary aqueous depositional features. The major ellipsoid axis AMS orientations in the loess samples indicate a pervasive Northwest–Southeast directional component since the late Neogene. Since that time, the W–E component gradually overtakes the N–S component, which may explain the trend toward increased aridity during that time. Finally, a local heavy rainfall event seemingly occurred in the Lantian region about 2.6 Ma, which may have been responsible for the aqueous redeposition of sediments observed in L 33 layer in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 is the latest interstadial to be a significant period for paleoclimate research. The mild interstadial climate in MIS 3 can shed light on studies of the current warming period. However, it is uncertain whether or not the humidity in MIS 3 exceeds that in Holocene level, and forcing mechanisms of paleoclimate evolution remains controversial. In this paper, we use pollen and AMS 14C dating data of a sediment core Ailike-2019 (4.49 m) recovered from Lake Ailike, Xinjiang in arid central Asia, to reconstruct the vegetation and climate changes in Lake Ailike over the last 40,000 years. The results show that Lake Ailike region has been dominated by desert vegetation since the middle MIS 3. The vegetation coverage shows that climate was arid in the middle MIS 3 (40.2-33.2 cal kyr BP), ameliorated during the late MIS 3 (33.2-26.7 cal kyr BP) but still dry, extremely dry during MIS 2 (26.7-12 cal kyr BP), and relatively wet during Holocene (12-0 cal kyr BP). The climate in the Holocene was wetter than in the mid-late MIS 3 in Lake Ailike, which is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records from arid central Asia and Europe. This climate pattern might be attributed to amounts of vapor transported by the westerlies and Siberian high pressure. Low/high Northern Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) induced by decreased/increased Northern Hemisphere summer insolation resulted in westerlies transporting less/more amount of vapor to the arid central Asia during MIS 3/Holocene. Meanwhile, intensified/weakened Siberian high pressure resulting from the expanding/melting of ice sheet might induce dry/wet climate conditions in the mid-late MIS 3/the Holocene. • Fossil pollen records from Lake Ailike reveal vegetation and climate history since the middle MIS 3. • The climate was significantly wetter in the Holocene than in the mid-late MIS 3 in Lake Ailike. • This climate pattern is in general agreement with that in arid central Asia and Europe. • Eurasian ice volume and Northern Atlantic SSTs might be the driving factors of effective moisture in arid central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth's history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds (EASWs) strengthened in monsoonal China, and that East Asian winter winds (EAWWs) weakened in northern monsoonal China during this period, as compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the corresponding mechanisms are still unclear. In this paper, the results of a set of numerical simulations are reported to analyze the effects of changed boundary conditions on the mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate, based on PRISM3 (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. The model results showed that the combined changes of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric CO concentration, and ice sheet extent were necessary to generate an overall warm climate on a large scale, and that these factors exerted the greatest effects on the strengthening of EASWs in monsoonal China. The orographic change produced significant local warming and had the greatest effect on the weakening of EAWWs in northern monsoonal China in the mid-Pliocene. Thus, these two factors both had important but different effects on the monsoon change. In comparison, the effects of vegetational change on the strengthened EASWs and weakened EAWWs were relatively weak. The changed monsoon winds can be explained by a reorganization of the meridional temperature gradient and zonal thermal contrast. Moreover, the effect of orbital parameters cannot be ignored. Results showed that changes in orbital parameters could have markedly affected the EASWs and EAWWs, and caused significant short-term oscillations in the mid-Pliocene monsoon climate in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate on the Tibetan Plateau is often considered sensitive to global changes, yet the degree of sensitivity in different spaces and seasons prior to instrumental records is not clear. In this paper, we studied tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) to examine the late-summer (August–September) temperature variation over the past two and half centuries on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The MXD regional chronology was established from 109 tree-ring samples of Balfour spruce [ Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana (Rehd. et Wils.)] at four high elevation sites. The chronology exhibited a high correlation ( r = 0.82, n = 56, p < 0.001) with the mean August–September temperature. Using the tree-ring data, we reconstructed the late-summer temperature for the period A.D. 1765–2009. The reconstruction accounted for 71.4% of the variance in instrumental temperature in the period 1954–2009. The reconstructed temperature did not show a warming trend in the past 250 years, suggesting a unique characteristic of late-summer temperature variability in the study region of the Tibetan Plateau. Our tree-ring data are useful for further understanding of the plateau's thermal condition in late summer and its role in regulating southward retreat of the Southwest Asian monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southeast Asian countries have the possibility to have rainfall and number of extreme rainfall event change due to future climate variation. This paper proposed three extreme rainfall indices as a modification of climate extremes indices from CLIMDEX Project by researchers at the Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), the University of New South Wales (UNSW). The proposed indices aim to be used as a parameter for observing extreme rainfall events in tropical monsoon countries. Eleven extreme precipitation indices from CLIMDEX Project and the three proposed extreme precipitation for tropical monsoon countries are systematically analyzed based on data of daily rainfall from meteorological stations in Bangkok and Jakarta. Mann-Kendall test was used to observe the trend of extreme rainfall. In general, the analysis of a total of 14 extreme indices show both Bangkok and Jakarta received more rainfall during rainy season and less rainfall during dry season. Specifically, a significant increasing trend of extreme rainfall indices (R60 and R80) was revealed using the proposed indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amid growing alarm over the rising atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, increasing attention is being given to ‘geo-engineering’ technologies that could counteract some of the impacts of global warming by either reducing absorption of solar energy (solar radiation management (SRM)) or removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Geo-engineering has the potential to dramatically alter the dynamics of global climate change negotiations because it might cool the climate without constraining fossil fuel use. Some scholars have expressed concern that certain states may be tempted to act unilaterally. This paper assesses the approach that China is likely to adopt towards governance of SRM and the implications this holds for broader international climate negotiations. We survey Chinese public discourse, examine the policy factors that will influence China's position, and assess the likelihood of certain future scenarios. While Chinese climate scientists are keenly aware of the potential benefits of geo-engineering as well as its risks, we find that no significant constituency is currently promoting unilateral implementation of SRM. China will probably play a broadly cooperative role in negotiations toward a multilaterally governed geo-engineering programme but will seek to promote a distinctive developing world perspective that reflects concerns over sovereignty, Western imperialism and maintenance of a strict interpretation of the norm of common but differentiated responsibility. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A large intraseasonal variation in geopotential height over the Central Asia region, where the Asian subtropical jet is located, occurs between May and June, and the most dominant variation has a wave-like distribution. This variation in geopotential height influences precipitation across South and Southeast Asia. In this paper, we use composite analysis to determine the causes of this intraseasonal variation over Central Asia. The wave train propagates from the northern Atlantic Ocean to Central Asia over a period of a week, and generates an anomaly in geopotential height over the region. The tropical disturbance, which is similar to the Madden-Julian oscillation, appears a few days before the maximum of the anticyclonic anomaly over Central Asia, and is accompanied by active convection over the Indian Ocean and suppressed convection over Central America. Results of numerical experiments using a linear baroclinic model show that the active convection over the northern Indian Ocean causes the anticyclonic anomaly over Central Asia. The wave train that extends from the northern Atlantic Ocean to Central Asia is generated by negative thermal forcing over Central America, and the phase distribution of this wave train is similar to that observed in the composite analysis. Central Asia is the region where the effects of the tropics and middle latitudes overlap, and it is an important connection point between the Asian monsoon and middle latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Holocene climate records obtained from the Asian summer monsoon domain suggest a regionally-delineated response to changing summer monsoon. The interaction between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), two subsystems of the Asian summer monsoon, has been considered as a factor that explains those inconsistent Holocene climate records. However, this assumption is not valid when the relationship between the two subsystems is not clear. This paper presents a literature review regarding climate simulation of the Asian summer monsoon for testing the long-term relationship. The absolutely-dated Holocene speleothem records in the EASM domain and the ISM domain were compared to verify the simulation results. In addition, a unified monsoon index, which has a unified solid dynamic basis and is appropriate for different monsoon regions, was used in order to identify the modern relationship between the two subsystems. The speleothem records show more synchronous than asynchronous on the Holocene millennial-scale monsoon evolution, furthermore the two subsystems respond to the Younger Dryas (YD) and 8.2ka events in a similar way. However, these monsoon simulations roughly suggest that the two subsystems respond to Holocene climate change in different ways. While the simulations were mostly performed in a certain period of the Holocene, the speleothem records provided a relatively continuous Asian summer monsoon history. Therefore, time scales could affect the comparison between simulations and speleothem records. Then, we further discussed the interaction between the Asian monsoon subsystems according to simulations and modern monsoon indices. Overall, the relationship between the two subsystems is more complicated than synchronous or asynchronous, which is a dynamic relationship and related to the atmosphere–land–ocean–vegetation interaction. In addition, the relationship can vary over different time scales, and the links between time scales should be paid more attention to. Besides, the interaction between the westerly winds and the Asian summer monsoon in the mid-latitudes of East Asia will profoundly affect those areas in response to Holocene climate change. It is recommended that further research should be emphasized in dynamic mechanisms between the Asian summer monsoon subsystems and between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century changes in global mean surface air temperature from previous work with the IGSM. Because the IGSM-CAM framework only considers one particular climate model, it cannot be used to assess the structural modeling uncertainty arising from differences in the parameterization suites of climate models. However, comparison of the IGSM-CAM projections with simulations of 31 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show that the range of warming at the continental scale shows very good agreement between the two ensemble simulations, except over Antarctica, where the IGSM-CAM overestimates the warming. This demonstrates that by sampling the climate system response, the IGSM-CAM, even though it relies on one single climate model, can essentially reproduce the range of future continental warming simulated by more than 30 different models. Precipitation changes projected in the IGSM-CAM simulations and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble both display a large uncertainty at the continental scale. The two ensemble simulations show good agreement over Asia and Europe. However, the ranges of precipitation changes do not overlap - but display similar size - over Africa and South America, two continents where models generally show little agreement in the sign of precipitation changes and where CCSM3 tends to be an outlier. Overall, the IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and consistent framework to explore the large uncertainty in future projections of global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Backcasting is not a new concept for scientists dealing with carbon mitigation or climate change mitigation issues around the world, but could be an innovative idea for public, local, and national policy planners as they are so far only familiar with forecast scenarios for different issues and sectors. Defining a roadmap to achieving low carbon targets and explaining these targets in quantitative form as much as possible is known as backcasting. Plenty of computer-based quantitative models and tools are used to outline low carbon society scenarios in the Asia-Pacific region and implementations of such models are underway. This paper spotlights these quantitative models and tools which are used to achieve backcasting benchmarks. These models are critically reviewed for their functioning and real possibilities on ground levels and suggestions have been made to improve practical implementation in developing Asia. The study found that all these models are highly acceptable and applicable in Asian countries but actual applications are rare, with Japan as the leading country in implementing such applications, followed by Malaysia. Estimation of CO2 sinks, open availability, and energy service demands (built-in option) are major weaknesses of the models. We also concluded that these computer-based quantitative models are helpful for almost all of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region facing such issues as data limitation, fewer resources, and lack of government participation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper investigates the impact of different ocean initialization strategies on the forecast skill of decadal prediction experiments performed with the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) coupled model. The ocean initializations assimilate three-dimensional temperature and salinity anomalies from two different ocean state estimates, the ocean reanalysis of the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) and an ensemble of MPI-OM ocean experiments forced with the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalysis. The results show that North Atlantic and Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) variations can be skillfully predicted up to a decade ahead and with greater skill than by both uninitialized simulations and persistence forecasts. The regional distribution of SST predictive skill is similar in both initialization approaches; however, higher skill is found for the NCEP hindcasts than for the GECCO hindcasts when a combination of predictive skill measures is used. Skillful predictions of surface air temperature are obtained over northwestern Europe, northern Africa, and central-eastern Asia. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre region stands out as the region with the highest predictive skill beyond the warming trend, in both SST and upper-ocean heat-content predictions. Here the NCEP hindcasts deliver the best results due to a more accurate initialization of the observed variability. The dominant mechanism for North Atlantic climate predictability is of dynamical origin and can be attributed to the initialization of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thus explaining the reoccurrence of high predictive skill within the second pentad of the hindcasts experiments. The results herein demonstrate that ocean experiments forced with the observed history of the atmospheric state constitute a simple but successful alternative strategy for the initialization of skillful climate predictions over the next decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Multi-proxy records (geochemistry, clay mineralogy and paleontology) from three sediment cores from Lake Hovsgol, northwest Mongolia, provide paleoenvironmental changes in continental Asia from the last glacial to the present (during the last 29calka BP). This paper presents the first continuous δ13C and δ18O dataset for ostracod shells (Cytherissa lacustris) from Lake Hovsgol sediments. A positive shift in ostracod δ13C values (from +0.5‰ to +3.2‰) began at ca. 21calka BP, and was associated with a decrease in δ13C values of total organic carbon (from −24.7‰ to −27.3‰) and an increase in the mass accumulation rate of total organic carbon (MAR-TOC). These results suggest that increased lake productivity led to the 13C-enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon in Lake Hovsgol. In addition, decreases in clay content and the illite crystallinity index (full width at half maximum of the 10Å peak) began at ca. 21calka BP, indicating an increase in surface runoff and a change in sources of clastic materials in the watershed. The highest δ18Oostracod values (up to −4.8‰) at 16–15calka BP indicate the increases in precipitation from the East Asian monsoon. The total pollen amount increased, and Betula, Alnus, and Salix were dominant (up to 53%, 30%, and 6%, respectively) after 16–15calka BP. These findings indicate that broad-leaved trees expanded around Lake Hovsgol. In addition, fossil diatom valves appeared after 16–15calka BP, suggesting climate amelioration, and increased input of soil-derived nutrients and dissolved silica. Between 10 and 5calka BP (Holocene climate optimum), productivity was high in and around the lake (MAR-TOC, up to 47.3mg/cm2 kyr; MAR-diatoms, up to 14.4×108 valves/cm2 kyr; total pollen concentration, up to 9.0×105 grains/cm3). Environmental changes during the last 29kyr in and around Lake Hovsgol are clearly associated with fluctuations in summer insolation and East Asian monsoon intensity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Sustainable development has always been a compromise formulation that papered over real conflict between environment and development. Twenty years after Rio, the geopolitical climate is far less conducive to easy compromises. Given an embattled North and a rising South, particularly Asia, the language of zero sum conflict rather than positive sum cooperation is likely to prevail. Green growth offers one way to paper over these conflicts yet again, but it would be prudent to resist this temptation. There is incomplete buy-in to the green growth story, and some in the South are also concerned that this narrative will downgrade poverty alleviation and equity considerations from the sustainable development triad of environment, growth and distribution. In this context, Rio+20 can play a positive role by focusing on national and sub-national institutions and embracing a diversity of national political, institutional and legal contexts; seeking to impose uniformity is likely to chafe. Global efforts can play a supporting role by inducing normative change, stimulate national processes, and provide hooks for domestic policy actors. In addition, Rio+20 should ensure that inclusion of the weakest should remain firmly on the agenda. While the conversations may be difficult, Rio+20 will be most productive if it leads to engagement with fraught geopolitical issues than if, once again, these are papered over. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geological climatic records and model simulations on the Asian summer monsoon climate change induced by insolation forcing of the Earth's precession are systematically reviewed in this paper. The presentation of the questions on the mechanism of the Asian monsoon evolution at the precession band, currently existing debates and future research directions are discussed. Since the early 1980s, more and more observed evidence and simulated results, especially the absolute-dated stalagmite records and orbital-scale transient model runs in the last few years, have indicated that the quasi-20ka period in the Quaternary monsoon climate change is caused by precession. However, debates still exist on the dynamic mechanism how precession affects the Asian monsoon. The "zero phase" hypothesis says that the Asian monsoon is merely controlled by summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) while the "latent heat" hypothesis emphasizes the dominant effect of latent heat transport from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) besides the role of the northern insolation. The two hypotheses have separately been supported by some evidence. Although we are cognizant of the importance of northern solar radiation and the remote effect of southern insolation, it has still a long way to go before comprehensively understanding the evolutionary mechanism of the Asian monsoon. In view of the problems existing in present researches of monsoon-dominated climate change at the precession scale, we propose that studies on the environmental significance of geological monsoon proxies, feedback processes in the long-term transient simulations and intercomparisons between observations and modeling results should be strengthened in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological monitoring of solar UV radiation using spore dosimeters has been undertaken since the year 1999 at more than 20 sites in Asia, Europe and South America. The monthly-cumulative data to the end of the year 2004 have been presented before. In this paper, successive data to the end of the year 2007 are compiled and the trends and correlation analyses with yearly and monthly average amounts of columnar ozone are presented. Mean yearly doses at 10 northern and 6 southern hemisphere sites exhibited exponential latitudinal gradients with similar slopes indicating a doubling of the dose with the decline of about 14 degrees. Among 12 sites where continual data for more than 6 years were available, increasing trends in yearly UV doses were observed at 11 sites. At one European (Brussels), two tropical Asian (Padang and Denpasar), and two South American (São Martinho and Punta Arenas) sites, decreasing trends of ozone amounts were noted, whereas at the remaining 6 sites (five sites in Japan and Thessaloniki), increasing trends of the UV doses were observed without notable changes, or with an increase at one site (Kiyotake), of the average ozone amounts. At one site (Taipei), the UV doses and the ozone amounts stayed constant. In the monsoon areas, climatic variations and changes, particularly in the extent of cloudiness and frequency of rainfall in summer months, might have been largely responsible for the trends of the UV doses. However, even at these sites, the decreases in the ozone amounts in summer months were frequently observed and might have contributed to the increasing trends of the UV doses. Since each region and locality is unique in climatic and atmospheric conditions, it is not easy to generalize the global trends. However, at many sites involved in this monitoring project, the increases in the biological UV doses during this period seemed to be linked to the decreases in the ozone amounts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The role of ocean feedback on monsoon variations at 6 and 9.5kyr Before Present (BP) compared to present-day is investigated by using sets of simulations computed with the IPSL–CM4 ocean–atmosphere coupled model and simulations with the atmospheric model only with the SST prescribed to the present-day simulation for the coupled model. This work is complementary to the study by Marzin and Braconnot (2009) who have analyzed in detail the response of Indian and African monsoons to changes in insolation at 6 and 9.5kyr BP using the IPSL–CM4 coupled model. The monsoon rainfall was intensified at 6 and 9.5kyr BP compared to 0kyr BP as a result of the intensified seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, the impact of the ocean feedback is analysed for the Indian, East-Asian and African monsoons. The response of the ocean to the 6 and 9.5kyr BP insolation forcing shares similarities between the two periods, but we highlight local differences and a delay in the response of the surface ocean between 6 and 9.5kyr BP. The ocean feedback is shown to be positive for the early stage of the African monsoon. A dipole of SST in the tropical Atlantic favouring the earlier build-up of the monsoon in the 6 and 9.5kyr BP coupled simulations. However, it is strongly negative for the Indian and East Asian monsoons, and of stronger amplitude at 9.5 than at 6kyr BP over India. In these Asian regions, the convection is more active over the ocean than over the continent during the late monsoon season due to the ocean feedback. The results are consistent with previous studies about 6kyr BP climate. In addition, it is shown that the ocean feedback is not sufficient to explain the relative amplifications of the different monsoon systems within the three periods of the Holocene, but that the mechanisms such as the effect of the precession on the seasonal cycle of monsoons as discussed in Marzin and Braconnot (2009) are more plausible. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, the long-term trends in surface temperature in several large Asian cities (Seoul, Tokyo, Osaka, Taipei, Manila, Bangkok, and Jakarta) have been analyzed for estimating the effects of urban warming. A new index, E-HII, is proposed: it is the value obtained by subtracting the temperature data of the four grids around the city from the observational temperature data in the city. Osaka shows the largest E-HII, increasing from approximately 2.4 °C in 1901 to almost 3 °C after 1981. The E-HIIs of Seoul, Tokyo, and Taipei, have increased by 1 °C to 2 °C. Jakarta and Bangkok exhibited a lower E-HII. E-HIIs of Manila and Bangkok have been increasing rapidly after 1961. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The papers in this special issue are derived from a selection of presentations given at the RACHAD workshop titled “Pattern of Holocene Climate Change in Central Asia: Data Synthesis” held at Lanzhou University, People''s Republic of China, from 25th to 27th July 2006. RACHAD is INQUA Palaeoclimate Commission (PALCOMM) Project (#0502), concerned with ‘rapid climate change in Central Asia''s drylands’, and the 2006 workshop was its fourth gathering. The RACHAD project was established in 2000 and has been led by Prof Fahu Chen from Lanzhou University. RACHAD''s initial objectives were to stimulate the reconstruction of Holocene climatic and environmental changes in arid Central Asia at high resolution, to intensify international research collaboration, and to develop and refine techniques for environmental reconstruction and dating. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climatic hazards such as floods and droughts have always been a primary matter of concern for human populations. Severe floods damage settlements, transport networks, and arable land. Although devastating droughts are harmful primarily for agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems, they can also lead to local water supply shortages. Despite significant achievements in science and technology and success stories in environmental management in the 20th century, people still continue to suffer the consequences of climate hazards worldwide. This paper provides an overview of existing practices for coping with floods and droughts, compares strategies in different river basins, and outlines the areas that need improvement. First, the existing protection measures and response strategies against floods and droughts are briefly described. An overview is given of expected climate change and existing coping strategies for floods and droughts in seven case study basins. Four of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, Rhine, and Tisza, are located in Europe the Nile and the Orange are in Africa; and the Amudarya is in Central Asia. Analysis of the coping strategies shows that structural measures exist in all seven river basins, but that nonstructural measures are generally not very extensive and/or advanced. Finally, the success stories in dealing with climatic hazards and lessons learned, taken partly from the seven case study basins and partly from literature, are summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The RIHN project “Human impacts on urban subsurface environments” aims to suggest improved development plans of urban centers for human well-being. This will be done by examining reconstructed past changes in urban environments, and by developing integrated nature-social models. Subsurface environmental indicators are developed from the points of view of: (1) human activities; (2) climate change; and (3) character of urban development and social policies. Water, heat, and material environments and transport vectors are being evaluated by a number of different approaches. Some of these include investigating changes in groundwater resources using satellite observations, reconstructing effects of climate change and urbanization using subsurface thermal regimes, and evaluating past contamination patterns from preserved subsurface records. In this overview paper, we describe the current status of urbanization in Asia, subsurface water conditions, material and contaminant transport to surface waters by groundwater, and subsurface thermal anomalies due to the heat island effect. The rapid pace of urbanization in Asia requires that we develop a better understanding of how to deal with environmental impacts, both above and below ground. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper investigates regional sources and transport routes of Asian dust observed in Korea over the past 40 years, that is from 1965 to 2004. These long-term changes were studied in relation to climatic changes and causes. About 87% of dust events in Korea occur in the spring and have been increasing steadily since the 1980s. These trends can be attributed to regional changes in dust sources to windward and the resultant transport pathways of dust storms. This study establishes that dust events have greatly increased during the 3 years from 2000 to 2002. It may be the result of not only an eastward shift in the regional source of dust but also changes in upper-level synoptic transport patterns. Intensified atmospheric circulation and an associated increase in wind speed as well as changes in snow cover, surface wetness and potential evaporation rates throughout Inner Mongolia and Manchuria are likely to be the main causes of the steadily increasing number of dusty days in Korea. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Understanding the climate change processes requires application of special methodologies for revealing a ground surface temperature history (GSTH). It was proved by different authors that the GSTH may be determined on the basis of analysis of the temperature field observed in short boreholes. In this paper, the authors analyze four mathematical models describing the GSTH: (1) sudden change, (2) linear increase, (3) square root of time increase and (4) exponential increase. Fifteen borehole temperature profiles from Europe, Asia and North America were selected in three groups based on their geographical proximity. After careful analysis of temperature-depth profiles in these boreholes it was found out that two models (linear increase and square root of time increase) provide the best fit with field data. The calculated warming rates in the 20th century were compared with those obtained by a few parameters estimation (FPE) technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]