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Contributions of different end-use activities to carbon intensity changes in global commercial building operations in (a) 2000–2010 and (c) 2010–2019; (b) impacts of different end-use activities on decarbonizing the operational carbon intensity across different countries in 2000–2019. [Display omitted] • The carbon intensity of commercial building operations in 16 economies declined 1.9 % yr−1 in 2000–2019. • Emission factors and industrial structure were the key to decarbonizing the building operations. • Energy intensity (e.g., heating: −14.3 kgCO 2 /m2/yr) has pushed global decarbonization since the 2010 s. • Decarbonization level in 16 economies was 230.3 MtCO 2 /yr with a decarbonization efficiency of 10.1%; • Electricity decarbonization will be critical to achieving global carbon neutrality in commercial buildings. Building operations will be the most critical step in completing the "last mile" of global carbon neutrality. To seek the best practical path to decarbonize commercial building operations, this study assesses the decarbonization progress of commercial building operations in 16 countries over the last two decades considering socioeconomic, technical, climatic and end-use factors through the decomposing structural decomposition method. The results reveal that (1) the average carbon intensity of commercial building operations in 16 countries has maintained an annual decline of 1.94% throughout the period 2000–2019, and emission factors and industrial structures were generally the key to decarbonizing commercial building operations; (2) energy intensity effects have started to promote global decarbonization in commercial building operations since 2010, with contributions from space heating [-14.33 kg of carbon dioxide per square meter per year (kgCO 2 /m2/yr)], service lighting (-5.29 kgCO 2 /m2/yr), appliances and others (-2.85 kgCO 2 /m2/yr), and space cooling (-1.24 kgCO 2 /m2/yr); and (3) the total decarbonization of commercial building operations worldwide was 230.28 mega-tons of carbon dioxide per yr, with a decarbonization efficiency of 10.05% in 2001–2019. Moreover, the robustness of this decarbonization assessment is tested using the typical index decomposition analysis and the decarbonization strategies of global commercial building operations are reviewed. Overall, this study assesses the global historical progress in decarbonizing commercial building operations and closes the relevant gap, and it helps plan the stepwise carbon neutral pathway of future global buildings by the mid-century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(a) Historical carbon emission mitigation of the residential building sector and (b) emission benchmarks of the future residential building sector in China. • Carbon mitigation of the residential building sector in 2000–2015 is 1.817 (±0.643) BtCO 2. • Residential building will achieve its emission peak in 2037 (±4) at 1.419 (±0.081) BtCO 2. • Floor space per capita and energy intensity are determining in the uncertainty of emission peak. • Future residential building energy benchmark should be controlled at 0.703 (±0.042) Btce. • A benchmark of 1.258 BtCO 2 can achieve the residential buildings' 2030 emission peak goal. Fast-growing carbon emissions from the residential building sector are a hindrance for China to achieve its 2030 emission peak goal. To identify future low carbon roadmaps of residential buildings, this study is the first to assess the historical carbon mitigation and simulate the energy and emission peaks of China's residential building sector using a dynamic emission scenario. It shows that the emission mitigation of the residential building sector during 2000–2015 is 1.817 (±0.643) billion tons of carbon dioxide (BtCO 2), and the normal distribution-based scenario simulation demonstrates that the residential building sector will achieve its carbon emission peak in 2037 (±4) with a peak value of 1.419 (±0.081) BtCO 2. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the impacts of floor space per capita and energy intensity of urban residential buildings are the most significant for the uncertainty of emission peaks. A strict energy demand benchmark of the residential building sector suggests a control at 0.661 billion tons of standard coal equivalent (Btce), and its peaking time is estimated for 2035, which is 5 years ahead of the business-as-usual scenario, with energy savings of 0.042 Btce. For the earliest peaking time, if the residential building sector aims to achieve its emission peak before 2030, the emission peak should be controlled at 1.258 BtCO 2. Overall, this paper can assist the government in more accurate and feasible building emission mitigation strategies. Moreover, the results provide a more powerful decision-making reference in issuing targeted and feasible strategies for future residential building emission mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]