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Very little work has been done on the feasibility of Machine Learning (ML) for predicting buildings energy demand right at the design stage. This feasibility, if proven, would help to avoid the construction of inefficient buildings. This paper uses dataset from 7559 buildings, and estimates their energy consumption using nine ML models. Results show that deep neural network (DNN) is the most efficient ML model with MAE, MSD and RMSE of 0.93, 1.12 and 1.06 respectively achieved in less than 7 s despite the huge data size. Its r 2 is also the highest (0.96) which means that the DNN approach manages to explain 96% of the energy consumption in buildings and only 4% remains unexplained certainly due to the limitation of independent variables. Also, this result is not affected by building clusters nor by data from a particular climate zone. As an innovation, this study proposes a model that professionals could use in the design phase of a construction project. This model will allow them to take into account all crucial aspects of the design of an energy efficient building. The model will then serve as a decision-making tool to control and optimise the project and to anticipate energy consumption even before the building is constructed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective and accurate prediction of energy consumption can supply an important reference and advance indicator for government to implement economic policies and energy development strategy. On account of the complexity and uncertainty of the energy system, this paper establishes a novel flexible grey multivariable model by introducing a power exponential term, a linear correct term and a random disturbance term. The novel model has the advantages in capturing the dynamic characteristics of the energy system, also it can be compatible with eight existing grey models when some parameters are assigned certain values. Additionally, to further promote the prediction performance of the novel model, the grey wolf optimizer is employed to determine the power indexes of the model. To demonstrate its performance, the proposed model is utilized to predict the energy consumption of three major provinces in China, and the fitting and prediction results of the novel model are compared with those provided by diversified competing models. The results illustrated that the novel model is superior to other competing models, offering more accurate and better performance. Finally, based on the results, several proposals for energy development are put forward for decision-makers. • The flexible multivariable grey model can adapt to more energy system structures. • The novel model can be flexibly compatible with the eight existing grey models. • A specific solution algorithm for the novel model's power indexes is discussed. • The novel model can be easily used to energy system with higher prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately forecasting energy demand can better predict future changes in energy demand. This study is aimed to develop more accurate clean energy prediction model from two perspectives of the modeling mechanisms and improvements on the model structure. For this purpose, a novel Riccati–Bernoulli differential equation is established through social practice theory, supply–demand relationship, and the preference of consumption in the energy economy. Considering the limited information in observation data, this differential equation is then transformed into a grey Riccati–Bernoulli model (GRBM(1,1)) according to the differential information principle. With the response function solved on the basis of polynomial equation theory and the power exponent optimized combining the modified flower pollination algorithm, the main process of GRBM(1,1) can be summarized. The four validation examples are provided for confirming the effectiveness and reliability of the new model by comparing with other existing models. Finally, the proposed model is employed to estimate and forecast the clean energy consumption in China and India. The results show that the proposed model demonstrates better estimation in all cases and efficiency in short-term clean energy consumption forecasting. Therefore, by using this optimum model, China's preference coefficient in total energy consumption is 0.7103, lower than that of India (0.8799), and China's preference coefficient in clean energy consumption is 0.9665, higher than that of Indian (0.7155), which means China has less interest to increase total energy consumption but more interest in popularizing the clean energy. • This paper proposed a novel grey Riccati–Bernoulli model for energy consumption prediction. • A specific solution algorithm for this Riccati–Bernoulli equation is discussed in this research. • We compared the proposed novel grey model with other 12 exiting prediction models. • The novel model also reveals China's effort in popularizing the use of clean energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]