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Power grid damage and blackouts are increasing with climate change. Load forecasting methods that integrate climate resilience are therefore essential to facilitate timely and accurate network reconfiguration during periods of extreme stress. Our paper proposes a generalised Wildfire Resilient Load Forecasting Model (WRLFM) to predict electricity load based on operational data of a Distribution Network (DN) in Australia during wildfire seasons in 2015–2020. We demonstrate that load forecasting during wildfire seasons is more challenging than during non-wildfire seasons, motivating an imperative need to improve forecast performance during wildfire seasons. To develop the robust WRLFM, comprehensive comparative analyses were conducted to determine proper Machine Learning (ML) forecast structures and methods for incorporating multiple factors. Bi-directional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU) and Vision Transformer (ViT) were selected as they performed the best among all 13 recently trending ML methods. Multi-factors were incorporated to contribute to forecast performance, including input sequence structures, calendar information, flexible correlation-based temperature conditions, and categorical Fire Weather Index (FWI). High-resolution categorical FWI was used to build a forecasting model with climate resilience for the first time, significantly enhancing the average stability of forecast performances by 42%. A sensitivity analysis compared data set patterns and model performances during wildfire and non-wildfire seasons. The improvement rate of load forecasting performance during wildfire seasons was more than two times greater than in non-wildfire seasons. This indicates the significance and effectiveness of applying the WRLFM to improve forecast accuracy under extreme weather risks. Overall, the WRLFM reduces the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the forecast by 14.37% and 20.86% for Bi-GRU and ViT-based models, respectively, achieving an average forecast MAPE of around 3%. • Novel climate-resilient load forecast model for use during extreme wildfire seasons. • Bi-GRU and ViT outperform 11 recently trending machine learning models. • Categorical FWI with high resolution enhances forecast stability by 42%. • Optimised calendar, temperature and FWI input reduce errors by 17.6%. • Forecast improvement during wildfires is twice that in non-wildfire seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel data driven framework for detecting topology transitions in a distribution network. The framework analyzes data from phasor measurement units (PMUs) and relies on the fact that changes in network topology results in changes in the structure and admittance of the network. Using voltage and current phasors recorded by PMUs, the proposed method approximates network parameters using an ensemble-based deep learning model and thus, it does not require any knowledge of network parameters and load models. Using the prediction error of the proposed model, a connectivity matrix which shows the status of switches is constructed. In contrast to other methods, this proposed framework does not require a library of voltage and current transients associated with possible network transitions. It can also detect simultaneous switching actions and is robust to noise and load variations. The model yields a lower error detection rate, and its performance is validated using a modified version of the IEEE 33 bus network and a real feeder located in Queensland, Australia, under full and partial observability conditions. The proposed model has also been compared with another data driven method in terms of inference time and error detection rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Operational performance in the low-voltage distribution network (LVDN) can be undermined by its inherent unbalances, which may become worse as the penetration of rooftop solar continuously increases. To address this issue, load balancing via phase-reconfiguration devices (PRDs), which can change phase positions of residential customers as required, provides a cost-efficient option. However, most reported approaches to control PRDs require that demands of all residential customers are available, which are not viable for many LVDNs without smart meters or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) installed. To bridging the gap in this field, this paper proposes a novel method to control PRDs purely based on measurable data from PRDs, and its controller. Based on limited information, sensitivity analysis in the network with PRDs is studied, followed by the optimization model that comprehensively considers operational requirements in the network. Moreover, slack variables are introduced to the model, and penalized in the objective function to assure either a strategy that is secure or with minimized violations can always be provided. The model is a challenging mixed-integer non-convex programming (MINCP) problem, which is reformulated as an efficient solvable mixed-integer second-order cone programming (MISOCP) based on exact reformulations or accurate linear approximations. Simulations based on two modified IEEE systems, and a real system in Australia demonstrate that an efficient strategy can be provided to mitigate unbalances in the network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]