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Air transport has been identified as one of the primary means whereby COVID-19 spread throughout Europe during the early stages of the pandemic. In this paper we analyse two categories of methods – dynamic network markers (DNMs) and network analysis-based methods – as potential early warning signals for detecting and anticipating COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe on the basis of accuracy regarding the daily confirmed cases. The analysis was carried out from 15 February 2020, around two weeks before the first COVID-19 cases appeared in Europe, and 1 May 2020, approximately two weeks after all the air traffic in Europe had been shut down. Daily European COVID-19 information sourced from the World Health Organization was used, whereas air traffic data from Flightradar24 has been incorporated into the analyses by means of four alternative adjacency matrices. Some DNMs have been discarded since they output multiple time series, which makes it very difficult to interpret their results. The only DNM outputting a single time series does not emulate the COVID-19 trend: it does not detect all the main peaks, which means that peak heights do not match up with the increase in the number of infected people. However, many combinations of network analysis based methods and adjacency matrices output good results (with high accuracy and 20-day advance forecasts), with only minor differences from one to another. The number of edges and the network density methods are slightly better when dynamic flight frequency information is used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to summarize activities being undertaken by the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe to prevent and control COVID-19 in and beyond prisons, activities specifically designed to increase information sharing and to support Member States, to comment on potential impacts of these initiatives at country-level responses and to underline the need for a rights-based approach to managing the pandemic, including the right to vaccination. Design/methodology/approach: The Health in Prisons Programme (HIPP) of the WHO Regional Office for Europe worked with partner organizations to review regularly the evidence on best practices in prison health and use it to inform policy recommendations at the global level. HIPP issued overarching guidance and specific tools to support implementation of measures to prevent and control the spread of COVID-19 in prisons and other custodial settings. Moreover, to monitor the emergence of outbreaks, the HIPP developed a minimum data set for countries voluntarily to report COVID-19 cases and identify situations in need of direct support. Findings: Since May 2020, the WHO has periodically received data from Member States, leading to the development of country-specific bulletins to support countries and, whenever appropriate, to organize virtual missions to further support ministries and public health bodies responsible for managing COVID-19 in prisons. Originality/value: The development of a specific set of indicators for prisons enables exploring data in a disaggregated manner. Monitoring response measures developed in prison enables judging their appropriateness to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV2 in prisons and alignment with guidance issued by the WHO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]