Search

• Higher fertility rate induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. • The three-child policy slightly increases fertility intention. • The three-child policy increases emission abatement of the designed emission trading scheme. • In emission trading scheme, technological progress increases GDP and decreases total emissions. • The three-child policy strengthens technological impacts on GDP but weakens technological impacts on emissions. Although population growth plays a vital role in driving anthropogenic climate change, fertility impact on achieving mitigation target is usually overlooked in literature. This paper attempts to narrow the research gap by employing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the interrelations among fertility rate, fertility policy, and climate policy in China. The model results show that fertility rate negatively correlates with GDP and emissions because higher fertility induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. The three-child policy raises fertility intention; it does not unidirectionally influence the effects of the emission trading scheme (ETS) on employment and GDP, but it increases ETS emission abatement. Technological progress increases GDP and decreases emissions; the three-child policy strengthens technological impact on GDP but weakens technological impact on emissions. Hence, technological progress benefits emission mitigation; the three-child policy enhances economic benefits but impairs emission abatement of technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security plays an important role in maintaining national stability and sustainable development of human society, and its research has become a hot issue at present. Shandong is the main grain producing area in China, and its grain production plays an important role in national food security. Accordingly, this paper is based on the county climate change, grain yield, sown area, fertilizer use, total power of rural machinery, and total population data in Shandong Province from 1995 to 2020. The evolution process of the food security pattern was studied by the methods of spatial analysis and comprehensive evaluation, the influencing factors of food security were quantitatively analyzed, and the adaptive countermeasures to alleviate the food security risks in this region were discussed. The results show that: Grain production increased by 30.62% from 1995 to 2020. The total population and per capita food availability also increased. Since 2000, more than a quarter of counties have experienced a high risk of food insecurity. The spatial agglomeration of grain production was enhanced, and the local agglomeration characteristics were significantly different. The average temperature in the growing season, the sown area, and the total power of agricultural machinery had a significant positive impact on grain production, while the annual average temperature had a significant negative impact on grain production. Improving the food supply system, strengthening the protection of cultivated land, improving the efficiency of fertilizer utilization, and increasing investment in agricultural science and technology can effectively alleviate food security risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Transition zones are the hotspots of bioclimatic changes under global warming. • Global warming extends growing season lengths but increases heat and water stresses. • Sustainable grasslands in China shrink and shift northwestward with global warming. Bioclimatic response to global warming is a key linkage between anthropogenic climate change and ecosystem sustainability, particularly for the impact-prone climate transition zones. This paper examines changes in heat-water conditions from 2006 to 2100 across China, using the fifth generation climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) and bias-adjusted climate projections by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We then assess the effects of these changes on habitat suitability for responsive ecosystems using a species distribution model. The results reveal significant changes in bioclimatic environments across dry–wet climate transition zones under the present-day climate and the RCP8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, local growing season length (GSL) could extend by 60 days and 30 % of the GSL could be under heat stress. Water conditions worsen overall in both the air and the soil, despite some improvements in the middle parts of transition zones. With altered heat-water conditions, sustainable grasslands shift northwestward, with a reduction of approximately 131 million km2 (46.6 % relative to 2006–2010) in total area. These changes primarily arise from alterations in winter and spring heat-water conditions. Our findings highlight the climate transition zones as hotspots of ecosystem vulnerability demanding particular attention in impact assessment and adaptation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the relative influences of anthropogenic activities and climate change on soil erosion and deposition during the Holocene, when both forces have been interacting is a complex problem. Analysis of long-term patterns in soil erosion and lake deposition in a basin can provide the basis for untangling the complexities of climate and anthropogenic forcings. In this paper, sedimentary sequences from Xingyun Lake are compared with simulated soil erosion rates in the basin to explore the relationship between river basin soil erosion and lake deposition during the Holocene in Yunnan, China. Modern soil erosion rates are calculated using RUSLE, while Holocene soil erosion rates are estimated using modern rates with reconstructed precipitation and vegetation cover sequences. Through this investigation, we found the following results. First, Holocene vegetation in the lake basin was mainly affected by climate change, and the vegetation experienced the same pattern of changes as the climate. Soil erosion and lake deposition rates, along with changes to vegetation cover, were synchronous with precipitation trends during the Holocene. Second, soil erosion and lake deposition have been exacerbated by human activities, such as deforestation and land reclamation in the Xingyun Lake basin. Finally, this study provides new insights into the effects by anthropogenic impacts and climate forcing on the processes of soil erosion and lake deposition on the millennium scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper conducts the assessment of CO2 storage capacity of offshore saline aquifers including Bohai Bay Basin in northern China, also Beibu Gulf Basin and Yinggehai Basin in southern China. • Different assessment methodologies are applied, and the mechanism and results are compared to analyze the applicability. • Results show that the CSLF and CO2BLOCK methods take into the account the storage mechanisms such as geological structure storage, residual gas storage and dissolution storage, the results seem more reasonable. Also different storage time interval could results in various capacity potential under safe injection in CO2BLOCK method. • In summary, the CO2 storage potential of Bohai Bay Basin, Beibu Gulf Basin, and Yinggehai Basin are 39.98, 53.22, and 13.37 Gt, respectively. Saline Aquifer CO 2 Storage (SACS) has become a vitally important technology for mitigating climate change brought on by anthropogenic and fossil fuel emissions. Application of SACS projects in offshore saline aquifers in China is quite promising, and the CO 2 storage technical and economic potential are considerable. However, the storage capacities achieved from different analytical and numerical methods varies a lot from each other since the main factors taken into account are variable. In this paper, different methodologies are applied to conduct the assessment of CO 2 storage capacity of offshore saline aquifers including Bohai Bay Basin in northern China, also Beibu Gulf Basin and Yinggehai Basin in southern China. Results show that the storage capacity obtained from European Commission's method is much less than that determined by the other three methods (i.e., USDOE, CSLF and CO2BLOCK method) since it mainly effected by the area of the saline aquifers. Since both of the CSLF and CO2BLOCK methods take into the account the storage mechanisms such as geological structure storage, residual gas storage and dissolution storage, the results seem more reasonable. In addition, the CO2BLOCK method considers the formation stability during injection as well, which is more in accordance with the reality. In summary, the CO 2 storage potential of Bohai Bay Basin, Beibu Gulf Basin, and Yinggehai Basin are 39.98, 53.22, and 13.37 Gt, respectively. This further verifies the great potential of industrial-scale pilot and demonstration CO 2 storage projects in offshore deep saline aquifers in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under climate change and anthropogenic activities, the homogenization of fish communities shows spatial and temporal shifts and threatens biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but little effort has been made to assess the seasonal shift of spatial homogenization in marine demersal fish, which hinders effective management. In the present study, we investigated the spatial patterns of demersal fish communities and their seasonal changes in the shelf sea of Shandong Peninsula in northeast China based on the four seasonal surveys. Our findings showed that both season and region were important factors in the distributions of biodiversity and the community structure of demersal fish. Spatial homogenization of taxonomic structure and functional structure exhibited inconsistent changes with season. Compared with taxonomic structure, functional structure exhibited relatively lower spatial homogenization in all seasons. Our results suggest that the density of survey stations for demersal fish resource investigation in the study area should be conducted in at least four regions and considering seasonality. This study highlights a need to understand spatial homogenization and its seasonal changes in demersal fish in both taxonomic and functional approaches, which could give insight into biodiversity and resource state and be conducive to improving the efficiency of resource investigation and management. • This paper investigated spatial homogenization of fish communities in the shelf sea of Shandong Peninsula. • A trait-based approach was used to measure functional structure of fish community. • Spatial homogenization of taxonomic and functional structures have different seasonal patterns. • The findings provide reference in optimization of survey station and determination of protected area scope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to deal with anthropogenic environmental impacts are focussed predominantly on cities. This paper applies metafrontier-data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate the capacity of 286 Chinese cities of different sizes and in different regions towards green growth development and assesses gaps in their efficiencies. The determinants of efficiency, including regional and population size effects, were estimated using logistic regression model. Results show that the state of green growth efficiency was different for cities of different sizes and from different regions, and gaps existed compared to the best production frontier. The paper suggests that more endeavours are required for environmental and social dimensions, and a short-term target can include achievement of group frontier efficiency and significant reduction in technology gap ratios. Owing to significant population size effect, policy programs should have target plans for cities of different sizes as they differ in performance and capacity building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological civilization construction has become one of the key strategies to address China's serious resource and environmental issues. However, how to define and how to assess ecological civilization ( EC ) are worth further exploring. This paper constructed a people-oriented EC indicator system, composed of a set of indicators, viz. Degree of Physiological Equilibrium ( DPE ), Degree of Psychological Imbalance ( DPI ), Degree of Imbalance of Human and Environment ( DIHE ), Degree of Human Development ( DHP ), Disharmony Degree of Economy and Environment ( DDEE ), and a composite index-Ecological Civilization Index (ECI), and then the indicator system was used to investigate the trends of China's EC construction during 1980–2010. Based on the reference year 1980, the study revealed that: (1) Physiological equilibrium of Chinese people has been slightly disturbed; (2) Psychological balance of Chinese people has been broken seriously; (3) The balance between human and environment has been destroyed greatly; (4) China has achieved great progress in promoting human development; (5) this country has improved the relationship between economy and environment obviously, despite that this improvement pace still falls behind speed of economic growth; and (6) China's EC level has declined during this study period. Therein, psychological problem and conflict between human and environment are the key obstacles to China's EC progress. China's government should further emphasize reform of its income distribution system and transformation of its economic development mode in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Seasonal sampling of heavy metals in the groundwater was conducted in a subtropical mangrove wetland. • The enrichment trend of heavy metals exhibited seasonal variations along the intertidal transect. • COVID-19-induced attenuation of anthropogenic activity reduced terrestrial input of heavy metals to the sea. • The intertidal aquifer served as a buffer zone for the transport of heavy metals to the sea. Mangrove wetlands connecting the land and sea are critical and dynamic ecosystems which act as biogeochemical reactors that influence the concentrations and distributions of heavy metals in the groundwater and adjacent seawater. In this paper, a subtropical mangrove wetland in China was selected to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater heavy metals and the driving mechanism along an intertidal transect with distinct undulated topography and vegetation zonation. Along the transect, five groundwater observation wells (W1-5) were set to collect groundwater samples at three different sediment depths (0.5, 1.2, and 2.0 m) and the advective flux between groundwater and surface water were calculated during four seasonal sampling campaigns from 2019 to 2020. The results showed that the seaward W1-3 acted as the groundwater discharge area while the landward W4-5 served as the surface water recharge area. The results of single-factor contamination index showed that a potential pollution risk of Hg existed at the study sites. The distribution of other heavy metals in the mangrove groundwater exhibited a seasonal variability along the transect during the sampling campaigns. For example, the relative high concentrations of Fe, Pb, Cu, Cr, and Zn focused in the landward zones in the dry seasons (autumn and winter 2019), whereas they changed to the seaward zones in the wet seasons (summer and autumn 2020). Moreover, the intertidal aquifer can act as a sink to enrich heavy metals in winter 2019 and autumn 2020 but become a source to discharge heavy metals to the sea in summer 2020. The above migration patterns of heavy metals were ascribed to the multiple complex factors including the seawater-groundwater interactions, vegetation zonation, biogeochemical reactions, and anthropogenic activities. This study contributed to the better understanding of heavy metal behaviors in mangrove groundwater so as to improve the sustainable management of mangrove wetlands under the pressure of anthropogenic activities and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Seasonal sampling of heavy metals in the groundwater was conducted in a subtropical mangrove wetland. • The enrichment trend of heavy metals exhibited seasonal variations along the intertidal transect. • COVID-19-induced attenuation of anthropogenic activity reduced terrestrial input of heavy metals to the sea. • The intertidal aquifer served as a buffer zone for the transport of heavy metals to the sea. Mangrove wetlands connecting the land and sea are critical and dynamic ecosystems which act as biogeochemical reactors that influence the concentrations and distributions of heavy metals in the groundwater and adjacent seawater. In this paper, a subtropical mangrove wetland in China was selected to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater heavy metals and the driving mechanism along an intertidal transect with distinct undulated topography and vegetation zonation. Along the transect, five groundwater observation wells (W1-5) were set to collect groundwater samples at three different sediment depths (0.5, 1.2, and 2.0 m) and the advective flux between groundwater and surface water were calculated during four seasonal sampling campaigns from 2019 to 2020. The results showed that the seaward W1-3 acted as the groundwater discharge area while the landward W4-5 served as the surface water recharge area. The results of single-factor contamination index showed that a potential pollution risk of Hg existed at the study sites. The distribution of other heavy metals in the mangrove groundwater exhibited a seasonal variability along the transect during the sampling campaigns. For example, the relative high concentrations of Fe, Pb, Cu, Cr, and Zn focused in the landward zones in the dry seasons (autumn and winter 2019), whereas they changed to the seaward zones in the wet seasons (summer and autumn 2020). Moreover, the intertidal aquifer can act as a sink to enrich heavy metals in winter 2019 and autumn 2020 but become a source to discharge heavy metals to the sea in summer 2020. The above migration patterns of heavy metals were ascribed to the multiple complex factors including the seawater-groundwater interactions, vegetation zonation, biogeochemical reactions, and anthropogenic activities. This study contributed to the better understanding of heavy metal behaviors in mangrove groundwater so as to improve the sustainable management of mangrove wetlands under the pressure of anthropogenic activities and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities (including greenhouse gases (GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols (AAs), and land use (LU)) and external natural forcings (Nat) to climate changes in China over the past 50 years were quantified. Both anthropogenic and external natural forcings account for 95%-99% of the observed temperature change from 1951-1975 to 1981-2005. In particular, the temperature changes induced by GHGs are approximately 2-3 times stronger than the observed changes, and AAs impose a significant cooling effect. The total external forcings can explain 65%-78% of the observed precipitation changes over the past 50 years, in which AAs and GHGs are the primary external forcings leading to the precipitation changes; in particular, AAs dominate the main spatial features of precipitation changes in eastern China. Human activities also dominate the long-term non-linear trends in observed temperature during the past several decades, and, in particular, GHGs, the primary warming contributor, have produced significant warming since the 1960s. Compared to the long-term non-linear trends in observed precipitation, GHGs have largely caused the wetting changes in the arid-semiarid region since the 1970s, whereas AAs have led to the drying changes in the humid-semihumid region; both LU and Nat can impose certain impacts on the long-term non-linear trends in precipitation. Using the optimal fingerprinting detection approach, the effects of human activities on the temperature changes can be detected and attributed in China, and the effect of GHGs can be clearly detected from the observations in humid-semihumid areas. However, the anthropogenic effects cannot be detected in the observed precipitation changes, which may be due to the uncertainties in the model simulations and to other issues. Although some results in this paper still need improvement due to uncertainties in the coupled models, this study is expected to provide the background and scientific basis for climate changes to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments of the ecological systems and water resources in the arid-semiarid region of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model) and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods) are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface water provides a basic resource for life and is vital for maintaining climate stability, hydrological cycles, and natural ecosystems. Lakes, which are an important part of surface water, play a crucial role in sustaining the hydrological balance and maintaining a healthy environment. The onset of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on lakes and the environment, however, have drastically changed the morphological characteristics of lakes, leading to undesirable negative effects on the ecological environment. In recent years, many lakes around the world are undergoing phenomenal changes due to climate change and human activities. These changes have greatly affected the availability of freshwater resources, leading to a series of regional ecological and environmental problems, which constrain the regional sustainable development. Changes in lake parameters often indicate environmental change. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to extract lake water information to reflect the water quantity changes in the lake, understand its implications, and come up with timely solutions. This paper summarizes the existing research methods of lake water estimation in China and abroad and draws the following conclusions: (1) In the study of lake water volume estimation, it can be roughly divided into with topographic data and without topographic data. The most representative methods are the estimation methods based on topographic parameters and the Triangle Irregular Network (TIN) model method. In the actual research process, most of the scarce data that are difficult to obtain are lake topographic data, prompting researchers to constantly put forward new methods; (2) From the perspective of research methods, estimation of lake water volume can be divided into remote sensing-based and non-remote sensing-based research. With the continuous improvement of scientific and technological levels, current geographical researchers tend to use remote sensing to monitor lake water volume; (3) Although researchers have proposed a series of models for lake water volume estimation for the long-time process. However, many models are based on the ideal static estimation process, which poses challenges for researchers to make a long-term dynamic estimation of lake storage capacity in the future. At the same time, the accuracy of the model can be a problem that researchers need to work out solutions in the future. Finally, combined with the current development of remote sensing technology, the application potential and the future prospect of remote sensing in lake monitoring are briefly discussed. • Lake water volume estimation, it can roughly be divided into with topographic data and without topographic data. • Estimation of lake water volume can be divided into remote sensing-based and non-remote sensing research. • The application potential and the future prospect of remote sensing in lake monitoring are briefly discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contrasting landscape and climate settings generate different catenas for alpine steppe grasslands at Maduo (4200 m asl) and alpine meadow grasslands at Maqin (3750 m asl) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. These place-based catenal models can be used as transferable archetypes in environmental management. [Display omitted] • Catenal models are developed for alpine steppe and alpine meadow grasslands on the QTP. • Implications for the generalised use of place-based catenal models are explored. • Research needs and management applications of the catenal models are scoped. Careful development of place-based catenal models and their application as transferable archetypes provides an integrative and generalisable framework for scientifically-informed approaches to environmental management. A workshop and field excursion to the Source Zone of the Yellow River in western China in July 2019 brought together local experts and a team of international researchers to co-develop cross-disciplinary, process-based catenal models that summarise controls on the character and behaviour of grassland environments in alpine meadow (3800 m asl) and alpine steppe (4200 m asl) landscapes. Water, sediment and nutrient fluxes, soil material properties, ground cover (especially percentage bare ground) and the role of small mammals (especially pika) are critical drivers of process linkages in the catenal models. Geologic, climatic and anthropogenic controls on these drivers vary in alpine steppe and alpine meadow settings. While these process interactions have supported grazing adapted ecosystems and sustained biodiversity values in this area for millennia, anthropogenic and climate change disturbances threaten the integrity of these landscapes and their capacity to provide ecosystem services and sustain livelihoods into the future. The place-based catenal models presented in this paper can be used to support applications that appropriately target key attributes, linkages and fluxes that may require conservation, maintenance or treatment in the management of alpine steppe and alpine meadow landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Optimal GAMLSS models were selected by meteorological and anthropogenic covariates. • A nonstationary SRI was proposed for a coupled human-water system. • NSRI excels in accuracy and recall, showing an advantage in drought recognition. Significant nonstationarity of hydrological sequences, driven by the coupled influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities, has challenged traditional hydrological drought analysis under the stationarity assumption in some regions, and has questioned regional hydrological drought analysis under the changing environment. To evaluate hydrological drought characteristics, the novelty of this paper is the proposition of a GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape)-based nonstationary standardized runoff index (NSRI), considering climate change and anthropogenic influence, for investigating the hydrological drought regime in the Wuding River basin. To that end, nonstationary test methods were performed on hydrological sequences, and data was segmented into three parts according to the results of the Pettitt test. A nonstationary probability distribution was fitted to runoff data with meteorological covariates (precipitation, temperature) and anthropogenic covariates (water consumption for social development demand, and water consumption triggered by water impounding by check dams). After selecting an optimal combination of covariates, the NSRI was calculated utilizing the GAMLSS model. A newly constructed evaluation threshold was proposed, based on the traditional SRI threshold. The performance of SRI and NSRI were compared at the Dingjiagou station in the Wuding River basin. Results of comparison between index identification and recorded drought events demonstrated that the NSRI better performed in drought event identification. Moreover, the NSRI identified more frequent severe droughts and extreme droughts. Therefore, the proposed NSRI provided a more accurate basis for the identification of drought events, which can offer valuable information for drought planning, preparedness, and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The effect of urban expansion on transportation in growing megacities has become a key issue in the context of global climate change as motorized mobility is a major source of domestic greenhouse gas emissions. The management of forms of urban development on the city fringe in order to encourage a sustainable transport system is usually overlooked in China, although it is increasingly attracting attention in developed countries. Examining the case of Beijing, this paper aims to reveal the policy implications of urban growth management for sustainable transportation in China''s megacities. The analysis shows that in the rapid urban expansion process there has been obvious urban sprawl on the fringe of Beijing, characterized by low density and dispersed development in its physical aspect and a low degree of local mixed land use in its functional aspect. Trip distance and car use for travel on the city fringe have increased greatly due to urban sprawl. The results of the analysis suggest that urban growth management designed to curb urban sprawl would contribute to containing the growth in vehicle miles travelled in the suburbs. In addition, since urban sprawl has been greatly fuelled by increasing local government autonomy and fiscal responsibility, the negative effects of sprawling development on transportation certainly reflect the government''s failure to manage growth in the current transformation process. To achieve sustainable urban expansion, stronger metropolitan development management measures should be enforced to control local development on the city fringe and promote sustainable transportation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Discharge from the largest karst spring in north China, the Niangziguan Springs, has been declining since the 1950s. This paper examines the response of these springs to climatic change and anthropogenic influence by attempting a model-based discrimination between phases in the stream discharge record. In Niangziguan Springs Basin, the exploitation of karst groundwater began in 1979. Accordingly, the spring discharge data were divided into two phases: pre-1979 and post-1979. In the first phase (1957-78) the spring discharge was believed to be affected solely by climate change, and in the second phase (1979-2007) the spring discharge was influenced by both climate change and human activities. Using grey system theory, a discharge model was estimated for the first phase. Extrapolating the model, we obtained a projection of the spring discharge during the second phase. Using a water balance calculation, we discerned the respective effects of climate change and human activities on depletion of spring discharge for the second phase. The results show that the contribution of climate change to depletion of Niangziguan Springs is 2.30m3/s and the contribution of anthropogenic activities ranges from 1.89 to 2.90 m3/s, although this assumes a constant for the climate change effect. Accordingly, the anthropogenic effects have been approaching and surpassing the effects of climate change during the second phase. With respect to the impact of human activities on spring discharge, groundwater abstraction accounts for only about 34-52% of the declines; 48-66% of the declines are related to other human activities, such as dewatering from coal mining, dam building and deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns over anthropogenic climate change and sustainable development motivate rapid expansion of renewable energy in China. This paper explores metal demand caused by projected wind power developments in China up to 2050. Dynamic material flow analysis is combined with explorative energy scenarios to evaluate induced demand of base metals (copper, steel, aluminum, nickel) and rare earth elements (neodymium and dysprosium). The results indicate that annual demand of base metals for Chinese wind power is up to 12 times larger in 2050 than in 2018, and the cumulative demand is up to 23 times larger. Copper and nickel show greater supply pressure than aluminum and steel in the wind power sector. Cumulative copper and nickel demand of wind power sector are 9–11.9 Mt and 2.1–2.8 Mt respectively, which corresponds to 35–45.9% of copper reserves and 74–101% of nickel reserves in China. For rare earth elements demand, more than 18-fold increases are expected for annual demand in 2050 compared with 2020, and cumulative demand of neodymium and dysprosium are 1.6–3.3% and 1.4–2.8% of their reserves respectively. Recycling will play an important role after 2050 as a secondary supply of metal for Chinese wind power, and lacks noteworthy impacts on short-term future outlooks. • Technology uncertainties determine metal demand and influence metal supply risks. • Nickel, copper and REEs play critical role in Chinese wind power deployment. • EoL recycling enables increase of China's long-term secondary supply of metal. • To achieve energy-metal system's co-benefits needs system nexus thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]