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Land use change models based on historical behavior have proven useful in predicting and understanding determinants of change. Such approaches are not possible where land use change data are absent. In this paper, we develop a normative spatial model that considers option values associated with land conversion between agriculture and forestry and their differing time scales. The model is applied in a case study regarding the potential for a cellulosic biofuel industry in Alberta. Results indicate the importance of future patterns of prices in influencing decisions to switch from agriculture to bioenergy production, and suggest that cellulosic plantations are not likely to prevail over agricultural land uses. Les modèles de changement d'affectation des terres basés sur les comportements historiques se sont avérés utiles pour la prédiction et la compréhension des facteurs de changements. Ces approches sont impossibles là où les données concernant les changements d'affectation des terres sont absentes. Cet article présente un modèle normatif spatial qui tient compte des valeurs d'option associées à la conversion des terres agricoles en terres forestières et à leurs différentes échelles de temps. L'application du modèle se fait dans une étude de cas au sujet du potentiel pour une industrie du biocarburant cellulosique en Alberta. Les résultats montrent l'importance de l'influence des futures structures de prix sur le choix de passer de l'agriculture à la production de bioénergie, et suggèrent que les plantations cellulosiques ne l'emporteront pas sur les affectations agricoles des terres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we hypothesize that farmers with a stronger valuation of family farming will be more resistant to converting farmland to tree plantations. Our survey data analysis from 106 farmers in northern Alberta reveals that general opposition to trees on farmland is the strongest predictor of farmers' resistance to the establishment of poplar tree plantations on privately-owned land. Valuation of family farming is the strongest determinant of resistance to trees on farmland. Among the potential intervening variables influencing support for tree plantations, including county, age, gender, number of children, and percent of income from farming, number of children and percent of income from farming had significant direct effects on valuation of family farming. This study suggests that economic incentives alone are unlikely to influence farmers' willingness to convert their land to non-traditional uses, and that intergenerational transfer of land, and its relationship to valuation of family farming, deserves further attention in rural sociological scholarship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water quality, environment, agricultural land use, waterfowl, and fish community data were collected from wetlands in four landscapes (West Peace Lowlands, East Peace Lowlands, West Central, and East Central) in the Boreal Transition Zone (BTZ) of Alberta (AB) and with one landscape in British Columbia (East Peace Lowlands, BC) during May and August over three years (2005-2007). This data set is unique in that it provides comprehensive water quality sampling, habitat conditions, and associated breeding and molting waterfowl data over a three-year period, which includes a drought year. Land use in the BTZ has rapidly changed with at least 73% of the BTZ. particularly in Saskatchewan, AB. being converted from forest to agriculture since the early 20th century. The BTZ has experienced a drying trend over the past 60 years with the lowest cumulative effective precipitation since 1943 with a --2323-mm precipitation deficit recorded in 2006. A total of 723 and 489 wetlands were surveyed for waterfowl abundance during the breeding and molting seasons, respectively. A subset of 214 and 213 wetlands in May and August, respectively, was further sampled for habitat, limnology, and agricultural encroachment surrounding the wetland. A subset of 25 wetlands was sampled in 2006 for fish abundance data. This data set has been used in several papers in assessing the impact of drought and agricultural impact on water quality and wetland conditions, as well as drought and land use impacts on habitat associations between breeding and molting waterfowl and wetland condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]