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Currently, effective crowd management based on the information provided by crowd monitoring systems is difficult as this information comes in at the moment adverse crowd movements are already occurring. Up to this moment, very little forecasting techniques have been developed that predict crowd flows a longer time period ahead. Moreover, most contemporary state estimation methods apply demanding pre-processing steps, such as map-matching. The objective of this paper is to design, train and benchmark a data-driven procedure to forecast crowd movements, which can in real-time predict crowd movement. This procedure entails two steps. The first step comprises of a cell sequence derivation method that allows the representation of spatially continuous GPS traces in terms of discrete cell sequences. The second step entails the training of a Recursive Neural Network (RNN) with a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and six benchmark models to forecast the next location of pedestrians. The RNN-GRU is found to outperform the other tested models. Some additional tests of the ability of the RNN-GRU to forecast illustrate that the RNN-GRU preserves its predictive power when a limited amount of data is used from the first few hours of a multi-day event and temporal information is incorporated in the cell sequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing the area of planted forests is rather important for compensation the loss of natural forests and slowing down the global warming. Forest growing stem volume (GSV) is a key indicator for monitoring and evaluating the quality of planted forest. To improve the accuracy of planted forest GSV located in south China, four L-band ALOS PALSAR-2 quad-polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images were acquired from June to September with short intervals. Polarimetric characteristics (un-fused and fused) derived by the Yamaguchi decomposition from time series SAR images with different intervals were considered as independent variables for the GSV estimation. Then, the general linear model (GLM) obeyed the exponential distribution were proposed to retrieve the stand-level GSV in plantation. The results show that the un-fused power of double bounce scatters and four fused variables derived from single SAR image is highly sensitive to the GSV, and these polarimeric characteristics derived from the time series images more significantly contribute to improved estimation of GSV. Moreover, compared with the estimated GSV using the semi-exponential model, the employed GLM model with less limitations and simple algorithm has a higher saturation level (nearly to 300 m3/ha) and higher sensitivity to high forest GSV values than the semi-exponential model. Furthermore, by reducing the external disturbance with the help of time average, the accuracy of estimated GSV is improved using fused polarimeric characteristics, and the estimation accuracy of forest GSV was improved as the images increase. Using the fused polarimetric characteristics (Dbl×Vol/Odd) and the GLM, the minimum RRMSE was reduced from 33.87% from single SAR image to 24.42% from the time series SAR images. It is implied that the GLM is more suitable for polarimetric characteristics derived from the time series SAR images and has more potential to improve the planted forest GSV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional ground survey data are very accurate, but expensive. Airborne lidar data can reduce the costs and effort required to conduct large-scale forest surveys. It is critical to improve biomass estimation and evaluate carbon stock when we use lidar data. Bayesian methods integrate prior information about unknown parameters, reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, and improve model performance. This study focused on predicting the independent tree aboveground biomass (AGB) with a hierarchical Bayesian model using airborne LIDAR data and comparing the hierarchical Bayesian model with classical methods (nonlinear mixed effect model, NLME). Firstly, we chose the best diameter at breast height (DBH) model from several widely used models through a hierarchical Bayesian method. Secondly, we used the DBH predictions together with the tree height (LH) and canopy projection area (CPA) derived by airborne lidar as independent variables to develop the AGB model through a hierarchical Bayesian method with parameter priors from the NLME method. We then compared the hierarchical Bayesian method with the NLME method. The results showed that the two methods performed similarly when pooling the data, while for small sample sizes, the Bayesian method was much better than the classical method. The results of this study imply that the Bayesian method has the potential to improve the estimations of both DBH and AGB using LIDAR data, which reduces costs compared with conventional measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]