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The Asian monsoon influences the lives of more than a third of the world's population, and understanding its spatial and temporal variability is fundamental to sustainable development. The complex dynamics of this climatic system are therefore of broad scientific and societal interest. In this virtual special issue (VSI), we present 19 papers dealing with the Asian monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21 kyr BP), with a focus on understanding variability and forcing mechanisms. Findings use recently developed quantitative reconstructions combined with numerical simulations, and present novel insights as follows: (1) analyses of comprehensive datasets of pollen, diatom, brGDGTs, oxygen and hydrogen isotopes and frequency magnetic susceptibility, as well as an innovative algorithm model for the lake energy-water balance, improve the reliability of quantitative reconstructions of Asian monsoon climate variations; (2) studies of quantitative climate parameters in central East Asia show that mean annual temperature (MAT) was ∼5 °C (or ∼ 7.9 °C using brGDGTs) lower during the LGM, ∼1.5 °C (±41% using brGDGTs) higher around the Holocene thermal optimum (HO) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) varied between 30 and 150% with marked seasonality during 8–5 ka; (3) dynamical downscaling palaeoclimatic simulations improve the accuracy of past monsoon variations, revealing strong variability in monsoon precipitation across the LGM and HO. The holistic study of Asian monsoon variations at orbital to centennial timescales in these VSI papers presents reliable observations of monsoon variability and its driving mechanisms, providing high-resolution quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions that fill existing gaps in spatial coverage, as well as offering an improved understanding, thorough numerical simulation, of coupled sea-level change and vegetation feedbacks. • An introduction to Asian monsoon variations over the past 21 ka. • Transfer functions, sedimentary records and numerical simulation are developed for studying past Asian monsoon. • Averaged MAP in East Asia varied between 30-150 % over the past 21 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system. In this paper, the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed, with a focus on the past several years. The achievements are summarized into the following topics: (1) the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon; (2) the East Asian summer monsoon; (3) the East Asian winter monsoon; and (4) the Indian summer monsoon. Specifically, new results are highlighted, including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula, and South China Sea; the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020, which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes; the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions, which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability (mostly the Arctic Oscillation); and the accelerated warming over South Asia, which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming, is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999. A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability and dynamics of the Asian monsoon (AM, hereafter indicates both of the summer and winter monsoons.) at orbital and millennial timescales has attracted wide interest. Chinese loess deposits, covering an area of ~500 × 103 km2 and with a thickness of several tens to more than three hundred meters, is an ideal continental archive to reconstruct AM variations during the Quaternary epoch. Over the past thirty years, since the earliest paper published in an international journal that linked the Asian monsoon and Chinese loess deposits, many studies have been undertaken focusing on this research topic. These results have greatly deepened our understanding of the variations of the AM climate and their driving mechanisms during the past ~2.6 Myr. In this paper, we emphasize recent progress on the AM variability and dynamics revealed by Chinese loess records; in particular, we discuss the reliability and precision of the timescale and the monsoon proxy indicators for the loess-paleosol sequences, which are two fundamental aspects for understanding AM behavior. We analyze what we know and discuss what we do not know about the AM. We refine the timescale for the typical loess-paleosol sequence in the central Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), which can be used as a new timescale to study palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental changes in the monsoonal Asia. We conclude that low-latitude insolation changes induced by precession, and global ice volume, temperature at high-latitudes, as well as sea-level changes forced variations of the AM at orbital time scales. High-latitude cooling events and low-latitude hydroclimate process at millennial time scales, such as climate changes associated with Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in Northern Atlantic and Greenland, have also modulated AM variability. We suggest that high-latitude forcing of AM variations occurs through ocean and atmospheric circulation linkages, although the roles of atmospheric CO 2 , ocean and vegetation feedbacks need further investigation. In future study, high-resolution independent dating, novel proxy indices and transient numerical simulations are still basic tools to understand the loess deposition and AM variations that require considerably more work. Issues such as reliable spatial comparison and regional linkages of records (dependent on precise and accurate numerical chronologies), and quantitative reconstruction of the AM variations, should be given priority in the study the past climate change in Asia, and low-latitude hydroclimate process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diatom records in tropical settings have been used to appraise paleomonsoons throughout the Quaternary period due to their ubiquitous presence, rapid response, and preservation in sediments. Despite this, diatoms have been rarely used to assess the Asian monsoonal climate. As the Asian monsoon comprises the Indian and East Asian subsystems, it plays a significant role in global hydrological and energy cycles. Keeping global climate in mind, we reviewed the dynamics and causes of Asian monsoon variability (covering major records exclusive from the tropics) on different spatial and temporal scales using diatoms as a proxy record. The data have been compiled from 50 papers spanning fresh and marine sediment archives, covering entire monsoon regimes, predominantly from Southeast Asia. This study classified the data based on various geological periods ranging from the Pleistocene Epoch to the Holocene Meghalayan age (600 ka −300 a BP). Diatom proxies indicate fluctuating hydrological conditions and varying monsoon intensity throughout the Quaternary period and show regional scale coherence for specific climatic events. Diatom records from both inland and marine sediment archives indicate a wet and warm period during the mid–Pleistocene (590–300 kyr) and a cold climate and weakened East Asian monsoon during 300–140 kyr. Through the late Pleistocene period (75 to 15 kyr), monsoonal conditions were intense, wet and warm during the interglacial stages and weaker and dry during glacial stages across South and East Asia. During the Last Glacial Maximum (24.5–18 kyr), the monsoon significantly weakened with cold climatic conditions in southern Asia, and increased precipitation across East Asia. A majority of the published records witnessed an enhanced Asian monsoon and a warm and humid period towards the early to mid–Holocene, with a decline in the monsoon after the mid–Holocene accompanying intermittent intense wetter conditions. Diatom records from the sediment archives at many geographic locations hold signatures of extreme events such as the Younger Dryas cold event around 13.3–11.3 kyr BP, the Medieval Warm Period around 1.3 to 0.8 kyr, and the Little Ice Age in between 0.6 and 0.3 kyr. Further, we indicate that several sites from different monsoon-dominated geographic-climatic zones should be re-investigated with high resolution across spatial and temporal palaeoclimatic periods (including existing databases) with careful diatom taxonomy to strengthen a climatic reconstruction of this monsoon-dominated region of Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The abrupt weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during Younger Dryas (YD) has been attributed to freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic ocean and resultant Northern Hemisphere cooling. Recent studies have found that sea ice variability in the Nordic Sea during the YD exerted a great influence upon the northern high-latitude climate. However, the influence of sea ice upon EASM evolution during YD event remains unclear. In this paper, we report two precisely-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records from the EASM-dominated region of central China. Our records archive abrupt changes in EASM variability during the YD event. Initially, there was a significant strengthening of the EASM during the mid-YD following the gradually increased Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Later this trend reversed at ∼12.15 ka due to northern high-latitude sea ice fluctuations and a consequent reduction of AMOC. At the YD termination, abrupt intensification of the EASM was synchronous with the rapid decline of sea-ice and recovery of the AMOC indicating that sea ice variability was a significant influence on high latitude climate and EASM variation during the YD. • A new speleothem δ18O record show significant EASM strengthening during mid-YD. • Mid-YD oscillation in EASM linked with NH sea ice variability. • Abrupt EASM intensification at YD termination synchronous with the rapid decline of sea ice. • Drier interval following the YD termination in central China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, correlation between modern leaf physiognomy and climate in China are examined, to optimize the use of leaf characters as a palaeoclimate proxy. A large dataset was compiled, recording the distribution of leaf physiognomic characters among 3166 native dicot trees species across 732 calibration grids on a county level. Grids span a range of ecological environments (tropical rainforests to alpine shrubs) across humid areas. Thirteen climatic parameters were included for each grid and 22 leaf physiognomic characters were scored for each tree species. The correlation between leaf physiognomic characters and climatic parameters were calculated based on single linear regressions (SLR) and multiple linear regressions (MLR). Results indicate clear spatial distribution patterns, linked to latitude, exist for all leaf characters, with temperature (Coldest Month Mean Temperature, CMMT) and precipitation (Growing Season Precipitation, GSP) being the main climate controls. Moreover, because leaf characters are more closely correlated with Precipitation during the Three Wettest Consecutive Months (P3WET), rather than with Precipitation during the Three Driest Consecutive Months (P3DRY), seasonal variations in rainfall associated with the Asian Monsoon might especially influence leaf physiognomic characters. Closer correlations between leaf physiognomy and climate are seen using MLR compared with SLR; therefore Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) and Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) based on MLR equations provide the most promising basis for palaeoclimate reconstructions in China. • Spatial distribution of 21 leaf physiognomic characters in China is established. • Relationships between leaf physiognomic characters and climatic parameters are established. • The seasonal variations in rainfall under the Asian monsoon climate shapes leaf physiognomic characters. • Paleoclimate can be reconstructed based on such large-scale modern dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall in Vietnam is strongly influenced by climate drivers which are caused by anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP) or geopotential height in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. This paper analyses the rainfall records at different sites in various regions of Vietnam to determine the influence of the three major climate drivers, the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), IPO (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) and their interaction on the rainfall at each of these sites. A statistical technique called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to discuss and address the uncertainties problem in model and variable selection when fitting observed rainfall data with climate drivers' indices. The results show that the ENSO, IPO and IOD and their interaction overall have very minor roles in influencing the rainfall in Northern Vietnam but they have some influences on the rainfall in the central and southern parts of Vietnam. Furthermore, seasonality analysis shows the spring rainfall in Vietnam is strongly influenced by the ENSO, IOD and ENSO*IOD interaction, with ENSO*IOD interaction strongest in the north. The situation in summer is similar but the IOD is most dominant compared to the ENSO and ENSO*IOD interaction. In autumn, the IOD and ENSO influences on rainfall are weaker while the IPO has strong influence in the Central and Southern Vietnam and no climate driver has any influence in the north. And during winter, the IPO, ENSO and IPO*ENSO interaction are associated with rainfall variability across Vietnam while the IOD influence is insignificant. The results also confirm the previous studies on the teleconnection roles of SST in the Pacific and Indian Oceans on rainfall variability in Vietnam. Influence scale of climate drivers on spring rainfall at various sites in Vietnam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This special issue provides new studies in the field of Cenozoic climate change in eastern Asia. The papers in this volume are multidisciplinary in nature and examine a range of topics including paleovegetation, sedimentology, clay mineralogy, geochemistry, magnetostratigraphy, and climate modelling. The findings of these studies demonstrate that analysis of terrestrial paleoclimate changes in eastern Asia may offer insights into the effects of Tibetan Plateau uplift, and ultimately the dynamic processes of global change that took hold throughout the Cenozoic. The second part of this special issue, to be published later, will add a paleoecology component, examining how Cenozoic climate change has impacted floras and faunas in eastern Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive and integrative view of East Asian monsoon evolution during the Holocene is still under debate, and additional high-resolution proxy records from climatically sensitive locations are requisite to solve this complex issue. In this paper, we present three well-dated mud/peat cores from a paleo-pingo depression in the Sanjiang Plain, a climatically sensitive region to monsoon variation, to reveal the paleoenvironmental history of the wetland and discuss the regional impacts from monsoon evolution. A paleolake developed in the study area before 5.5 ka BP, and a peatland initiated thereafter consequent upon the gradual shrinking of the paleolake. This transition lasted until 4.5 ka BP, when the paleolake changed entirely to a wetland. Considering the prevalent monsoon climate in the Sanjiang Plain, we suggest that the lake-to-wetland transition from 5.5 to 4.5 ka BP indicates a rapid decline of the East Asian summer monsoon in addition to autogenic basin infilling processes. Such a remarkable monsoon weakening event has been documented across northern China, and we associate this with ocean–atmosphere interactions throughout low-latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is the country with the most population in the world, and its climate is extremely diverse due to tremendous differences in latitude, longitude, and altitude, ranging from tropical in the far south to subarctic in the far north and alpine in the higher elevations of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Accurate assessment of its modern climate change is conductive to addressing global warming threat. Along with the development of Past Global Changes (PAGES) research, the focus has changed from paleo-climate reconstructions to using paleo-data for assessing the present and predicting the future. Previous studies have been devoted to climate change assessment using modern climate observations and simulations. This paper presents a new assessment approach based on the mid-Holocene, which provides a naturally oriented warming that can be compared to modern human-made global warming. A variety of climatic data, including modern observations, paleo-climate records, CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and PMIP3 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3) simulations, as well as lake level models, were applied in this synthesis. Numerical climate classification was introduced to evaluate climate change impacts to Chinese climate zones on various time scales. The results show that winter and summer seasons have different response to the naturally oriented mid-Holocene warming but human-made global warming makes the warming trend appear in all seasons. Temperate and continental dry winter climates expand dramatically during the mid-Holocene warm period; however, the future global warming could have few impacts to Chinese climate zones. Furthermore, the East Asian summer monsoon was strengthened obviously by the mid-Holocene warm climate and strong low-latitude insolation. There is no consistent trend both for the winter and summer monsoon on the background of human-made global warming. In this study, a new benchmark was established based on paleo-climate to evaluate the impacts of human-made global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981-2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system's ability to represent atmosphere-ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Niño events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the reversibility of CO induced climate change and in particular the potential impacts of different rates of CO reduction using a coupled climate model. Atmospheric CO concentration is ramped up by 0.5 %/year from the preindustrial value to 4×CO and then ramped down from 2×CO to 4×CO with different rates. How the response of the climate system is affected by the peak atmospheric CO concentration and the rate of long term decline is vital information for those considering hypothetical geoengineering options to remove CO. Major components of the climate system including global mean surface air temperature and precipitation, contribution of thermal expansion to global sea level rise, loss of the Arctic sea ice, weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the South Asia monsoon are analyzed. We have found no 'tipping points' or thresholds beyond which CO induced climate change in these components become irreversible within this model under the specific scenarios. However, there are strong inertias and path-dependent hysteresis in the climate system linked through oceanic memory. Initially the strengthened global hydrological cycle accelerates further in response to a CO ramp-down before weakening. Thermal expansion of the oceans continues for many decades after CO concentration starts to decrease. A 0.5 %/year reduction from 4×CO could see a further 25 % sea level rise. The weakening of the AMOC is reversible, but the build-up of highly saline subtropical waters during global warming drives an overshoot of the AMOC after the CO ramp-down and extends the warming of the northern high latitudes by many decades. The South Asia monsoon strengthens in response to a CO ramp-up marked by an increase in summer monsoon rainfall. This increase reverses rapidly following a CO ramp-down, displaying an undershoot in monsoon rainfall for rapid CO reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews progress in the study of Tibetan Plateau (TP) climate dynamics over the past decade. Several theoretical frameworks, including thermal adaptation and the TP sensible heat (SH) driving air-pump, have been developed to identify the mechanisms responsible for the circulation anomaly produced by thermal forcing of the TP. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the thermal effects of large-scale orography, including the Tibetan and Iranian Plateaus (TIP), are crucial for the formation of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoons (SASM) because the surface SH of the TIP is the major driver of the water vapor transport required for the genesis of the north branch of the SASM.The large-scale orography of the TP affects the Asian climate through thermal forcing in spring and summer, and mechanical forcing in winter. The TP forcing can also influence the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) onset over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) by enhancing the BOB warm pool at the surface and by modulating the South Asian High (SAH) in the upper troposphere. On intra-seasonal timescales, the TP thermal forcing significantly modulates spring rainfall in southern China and generates the biweekly oscillation of the SAH in summer. Despite climate warming, the atmospheric heat source over the TP, particularly the spring SH, exhibits a clear weakening trend from the 1980s to 2000s. This weakening of the spring SH contributed to the anomalous 'dry in the north' and 'wet in the south' rainfall pattern observed over East China. Also discussed are challenges to further understanding the mechanism of TP forcing on the multi-scale variability of the ASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Oligocene marked the beginning of the present 'icehouse' epoch and witnessed the development and evolution of the Asian monsoon system (AMS). In this paper, the early Oligocene Ningming flora of Guangxi, southern China, is analysed to investigate the AMS based on climate proxies derived from Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP). CLAMP results suggest that the prevailing climate experienced by the Ningming flora was humid subtropical with hot summers and warm winters. Although the record of precipitation seasonality is muted, it is about half as strong as that seen today in monsoon climates of South China, indicating a very weak monsoonal signal. Despite suggesting weak rainfall seasonality, the position of the Ningming flora in physiognomic space indicates that leaves exhibit monsoon-adapted morphologies, comparable to today's vegetation exposed to the Indonesia–Australia monsoon (I-AM) and the transitional monsoon area (influenced by the East Asia monsoon, South Asia monsoon and I-AM). Leaf architectural signatures reveal that the Ningming flora grew under a humid subtropical climate with subtle monsoon signatures. Although it is difficult to distinguish the different domains of the Asian monsoon under such a subtle monsoon influence, based on leaf signatures from southern Asia, it can be inferred that the Ningming Basin during the early Oligocene was exposed to a climate regime similar to that today influenced by the I-AM. In addition, the moist enthalpy method was applied to quantitatively reconstruct the paleoelevation of the Ningming Basin. This approach suggests a paleoelevation estimate of ~1.24–1.35 ± 0.52 km for the early Oligocene, suggesting that a drop in paleoelevation of the Ningming Basin took place after the early Oligocene (Rupelian). The CLAMP results suggest that the early Oligocene Ningming area was at a mid-altitude and experienced a humid subtropical climate with subtle monsoon signatures. • Leaves from the early Oligocene Ningming Basin were subjected to a CLAMP analysis. • The prevailing paleoclimate was humid subtropical with hot summers and warm winters. • Leaf physiognomic spectra shows an adaptation to monsoon climates. • The paleoclimate is similar to a climate regime today influenced by the I-AM. • The early Oligocene Ningming Basin was likely at a height of ~ 1.24–1.35 km. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]