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Understanding the impact of climate change on terrestrial wet and dry changes and the relationship between the two is of great significance to the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems. The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC) is an area that is sensitive to climate change, suffering from perennial drought and a clear aridification trend. Unlike previous single-factor, single-timescale studies, we identified aridification in the region based on a dataset established by remote sensing and ground-based monitoring stations from a combination of two perspectives: climate and soil. The results show that, in terms of climate, the period from 2000 to 2019 was the driest in the region during the last 120 years , and the summer drought was the most severe and shifted from a summer to spring drought; in terms of soil, the soil aridification trend in the region was severe, with 16.1% of the areas becoming significantly drier (P < 0.1) among the years and 41.6% in spring, respectively. Similar to climate change, soils exhibited recessive aridification due to the counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons within the year. Then the coupling relationship between climate change and soil aridification was established in time and space. Moreover, the spatiotemporal response patterns of both were obtained. The results showed that the frequency of soil drought under meteorological drought conditions showed an increasing trend and that the sensitivity of soil drought occurrence increased. Among them, the effect of precipitation on relative soil moisture (RSM) was immediate, and the effect of prolonged warming on RSM is greater. The area of soil aridification that was caused by climatic aridification in spring accounted for 13.7% of the entire area. The regional aridification research mode proposed in this paper can provide ideas for subsequent studies. [Display omitted] • A comprehensive judgment mode of the regional aridification combining climate elements, soil moisture was established. • Over the last 20 years, the central part of the FPENC showed overall warming and wetting of the climate. • Over the last 20 years, the trend of the soil aridification in the central part of the FPENC remained severe. • The counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons leads to recessive aridification. • The sensitivity of the occurrences of soil drought to the climate drought anomalies continuously became stronger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emissions play a crucial role in inducing global warming and climate change. Accurate and stable carbon emissions forecasting is beneficial for formulating emissions reduction schemes and achieving carbon neutrality as early as possible. Although previous studies have concentrated on employing one or several methods for carbon emissions forecasting, the improvement in forecasting performance is limited because they ignore the importance of objectively selecting the models and the necessity of interval forecasting. In this paper, a novel ensemble prediction system, composed of data decomposition, model selection, phase space reconstruction, ensemble point prediction, and interval prediction, is proposed to conduct both point and interval predictions, which has been proven to be effective in prompting carbon emissions forecasting accuracy and stability. According to the empirical results, the mean MAPE results of our proposed forecasting strategy in point prediction are 1.1102% (in Dataset A) and 1.1382% (in Dataset B), and the mean CWC values in the interval forecasting are 0.3512 and 0.1572, respectively. Thus, the proposed forecasting system improves the forecasting performance relative to other models considerably, which can provide meaningful references for policymakers. • An ensemble forecasting system is developed for carbon management. • Comprehensive indicator is proposed to determine the best predictor adaptively. • Optimal distribution and reduction coefficient are used for interval forecasting. • Multi-objective tangent search algorithm is proposed for interval forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new framework to evaluate the resilience of lakes under climatic and anthropogenic droughts. The proposed hierarchical structure of criteria for assessing lake's resilience has four levels. The first level includes several indices such as long-term resilience, reliability, and implementation cost. In the second to fourth levels, four main resilience-based criteria (i.e. robustness, resourcefulness, redundancy, and rapidity) and some qualitative and quantitative sub-criteria are defined considering the factors affecting the ecological condition of lakes. To quantify the time series of the sub-criteria, a coupled SWAT-MODSIM-based simulation model has been applied. Also, the values of criteria and sub-criteria have been aggregated using the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach. After estimating the annual resilience time series, three resilience indices, namely the recovery time (Tr), loss of resilience (LOR), and final resilience (Res f), have been calculated. The normalized values of these indices and reliability criteria have been aggregated to evaluate the overall performance of lake restoration scenarios. To show the applicability of the proposed methodology, the Zarrinehrud river basin and Lake Urmia have been selected as the case study. As one of the largest hypersaline lakes globally, Lake Urmia suffers from drastic changes in its water body and a high level of salinization. Also, the Zarrinehrud river basin, located in the southeastern of Urmia Lake, is the most significant sub-basin of the lake and is responsible for supplying 41% of the total annual inflow of the lake. The restoration scenarios of Lake Urmia have been assessed from 2019 to 2049. Eventually, the most effective scenario, which has an average overall performance of 0.72, the implementation cost of 17.1 million dollars, and the uncertainty band of 0.05, has been selected. • A new methodology is proposed for evaluating resilience of lakes under drought. • Some new criteria are proposed for assessing the lake's ecological condition. • The evidential reasoning approach is utilized for combining resilience sub-criteria. • Three new resilience indices have been proposed for evaluating management scenarios. • The methodology has been applied to Lake Urmia and Zarrinehrud river basin in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decreasing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation is crucial to tackle climate change. Empirically, however, little is known about the effectiveness of existing economic instruments in the power sector. This paper examines the impact of the UK Carbon Price Support (CPS), a carbon tax implemented in the UK power sector in 2013. Relative to a synthetic control unit built from other European countries, I find that emissions from the UK power sector declined by 20 to 26 percent per year on average between 2013 and 2017. The tax operated via three mechanisms: a decrease in emissions at the intensive margin; the closure of some high-emission plants at the extensive margin; and a higher probability of closure for plants already at risk due to European air quality regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the frequency and severity of wildfires escalates in many regions, the study of fire-resilient forestry practices becomes crucial. While forest owners may employ several silvicultural practices to mitigate fire damage, the analytical study of optimal forest management has been reduced to the effects of fire on optimal rotation only. The fundamental result of this literature date back to the early 1980s and has remained virtually uncontested since then. This paper develops an infinite rotation cycle forest model in which landowners optimally choose rotation age, volume, and timing of partial harvesting in the presence of fire risk. We show that this setting fundamentally changes earlier results. In particular, more frequent fires imply beginning commercial thinning sooner but not necessarily shortening the rotation age. Two numerical applications highlight the empirical relevance of our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies how extreme weather and natural disasters affect campaign contributions and elections. Weather events associated with climate change may influence these outcomes by leading voters to re-evaluate the incumbent politician's environmental position. In a short-run analysis, we find that the number of online contributions to the Democratic Party increases in response to higher weekly temperature, with a larger effect in counties with more anti-environment incumbent politicians. In a medium-run analysis, we find that, when a natural disaster strikes, the election becomes more competitive if the incumbent leans more anti-environment: total campaign contributions increase for both candidates and the increase is skewed toward the challenger, the race is more likely to be contested, and the incumbent is less likely to be re-elected. These results suggest that extreme weather events carry a moderate electoral penalty for anti-environment incumbents during 1990–2012. This mechanism will likely play a more important role as the public awareness of climate change continues to increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2015 there has been a surge of academic publications and citations focused on consumer food waste. To introduce a special issue of Appetite focused on the drivers of consumer food waste we perform a transdisciplinary and historical review of the literature through a co-citation network analysis and topic modelling approach. We show that the rapid increase in publications is largely attributable to an urgency caused by the Sustainable Development Goals and climate change. Topic modelling reveals that the dramatic quantitative increase of publications has also produced a variety of evolving themes, and that a metaphorical Cambrian Explosion is occurring after decades of academic inactivity. Network analysis results show that consumer food waste features in thousands of articles and hundreds of journals, but that the citation practices of academics are becoming highly concentrated, as 20% of journals attract over 80% of citations. Finally, by examining the burstiness and transdisciplinary structure of citation networks we show that though the field has historically been dominated by empirical articles, it is now starting to show signs of maturity as a flurry of review papers help to consolidate knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the structural aspects of climate vulnerabilities in the context of monsoon failures. The paper is based on a unique household survey, conducted in Tamil Nadu, India. The study uses a rural differentiation framework to interrogate unequal vulnerabilities to monsoon failures, based on measures such as Gini coefficients and Lorenz curves of monetary losses. Results show that negative consequences of climate change in general, and monsoon failures in particular, intensify pre-existing socio-economic disparities. When the rural differentiation theory is applied in a broader sense, the analysis shows that landed and farming households have greater exposure and losses. When we move beyond these aggregate categories, the revelation is that households with pre-existing disadvantages such as marginal landholders, subsistence farmers and agricultural workers are more vulnerable. • Global warming affects agriculture in South Asia in a major way through monsoon failures. • Vulnerability to monsoon failures can be measured by associated monetary losses. • These losses are highly unevenly distributed, pointing to significant inequality in impacts. • Landless households, marginal holders and subsistence farmers have higher losses. • Climate change intensifies existing structural disadvantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A multiproxy-approach is key to understanding regional demography. • Demography and mobility changed throughout the Mesolithic. • Possibly triggered by environmental and climate events. • The Middle Mesolithic is characterized by increased mobility and a population shift. • The Late Mesolithic testifies a reduction in population and mobility. This paper explores the impact of environmental, e.g. sea level rise, and climatic events, e.g. abrupt cooling events, on Mesolithic populations (ca. 11,350 to 6600 cal BP) living in the western Scheldt basin of Belgium and Northern France. The Mesolithic in this study-area has been extensively studied during the last few decades, leading to an extensive database of radiocarbon dates (n = 418), sites (n = 157) and excavated loci (n = 145). A multi-proxy analysis of this database reveals important changes both chronologically and geographically, which are interpreted in terms of population dynamics and changing mobility and land-use. The results suggest a population peak and high residential mobility in the Early Mesolithic, followed by a population shift and increased intra-basin mobility in the Middle Mesolithic, possibly triggered by the rapid inundation of the North Sea basin. The situation during the Late Mesolithic remains less clear but a possible reduction in the mobility seems likely. Currently there is little evidence supporting a causal link between these diachronic changes in human behavior and the 9.3 and 8.2 ka cooling events. Most of the observed changes seem more in response to long-term climatic and environmental changes during the Early and Middle Holocene, hinting at considerable resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is broad theoretical consensus that one way to promote climate-friendly behavior is to increase people's belief that their actions can make a difference (individual response efficacy). However, attempts to increase individual efficacy beliefs about climate change through explicit instruction have generally failed. In the current paper, two experiments tested an intervention designed to convince people that their individual actions spread and multiply, causing larger changes in interconnected systems (also known as ripple or butterfly effects). Participants were presented with four principles which explain how individual actions can have aggregate effects at the collective level: social norms, consumer pressure, political pressure, and snowball effects. Although Study 1 (N = 491) revealed promising effects of the intervention in terms of individual efficacy and pro-environmental intentions, the intervention did not influence actual behavior (i.e., donations to an environmental campaign). Further, when changes were made to the design to reduce social desirability processes, the interventions had no significant effects (Study 2; N = 801). We draw on these data – as well as previous failed attempts to promote individual efficacy – to extract theoretical implications for our understanding of how people internalize individual control over broad collective threats such as climate change. • Strong correlations exist between climate efficacy and pro-environmental behavior. • There is limited evidence that individual efficacy can be increased via instruction. • Instruction about ripple effects had inconsistent effects on individual efficacy. • Instruction about ripple effects had no effects on pro-environmental behavior. • Results guide those trying to promote climate action via efficacy interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is a major determinant of the world's distribution of biodiversity and species ranges are expected to shift as the climate changes. For conservation policies to be cost-effective in the long run these changes need to be taken into account. To some extent, policies can be adapted over time, but transaction costs, lock-in effects and path dependence limit the extent to which such adaptation is possible. Thus it is desirable that conservation policies be designed so that they are cost-effective in the long run even without future adaptations. Given that the future climate change is highly uncertain, the policies need to be robust to climatic uncertainty. In this paper we present an approach for the robustness analysis with regard to the cost-effectiveness of conservation policies in the face of uncertain climate change. The approach is applied to the conservation of a grasshopper species in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein. For the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of considered policies we develop a climate-ecological-economic model. We show that in the near future all considered policies have a similar level of robustness, while in the more distant future the policies differ substantially in their robustness and a trade-off emerges between the expected performance and robustness of a policy. • Uncertainty in climate change requires robust biodiversity conservation policies. • Biodiversity conservation policies should be cost-effective. • We determine robust cost-effective policies for conservation of a grasshopper species. • There is a trade-off between expected policy performance and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A vicious cycle exists between agricultural production and climate change, where agriculture is both a driver and a victim of the changing climate. While new and ambitious environmental and climate change-oriented goals are being introduced in Europe, the monitoring of these objectives is often jeopardized by a lack of technological means and a reliance on heavy administrative procedures. In particular, remote sensing technologies have the potential to significantly improve the monitoring of such goals but the characteristics of such missions should take into consideration the needs of users to guarantee return on investments and effective policy implementation. This study aims at identifying gaps in the current offer of Copernicus products for the monitoring of the agricultural sector through the elicitation of stakeholder requirements. The methodology is applied to the case study of Italy while the approach is scalable at European level. The elicitation process associates user needs to the European and national legislative framework to create a policy-oriented demand of Copernicus Earth Observation services. Results show the limitations faced by environmental managers in relation to the use of Remote Sensing technologies and the shortcomings associated with a purely technology driven approach to the development of satellite missions. Through the introduction of this flexible and user centred approach instead, this paper provides a clear overview of agro-environmental user requirements and represents the basis for the definition of an integrated agricultural service. •Eliciting user requirements provides guidance for the improvement of the offer of European Earth Observation products. •The methodology used improves the institutional market pull for the development of the EO upstream offer •Aligning technological development to operational needs can enhance agro-environmental and climate goals. •Investing in synergies between missions can improve the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy post 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, regions in the Mediterranean area share common characteristics in terms of high sensitivity to climate change impacts. Does this translate into specificities regarding climate action that could arise from these Mediterranean characteristics? This paper sheds light on regional and local climate mitigation actions of the Mediterranean Europe, focusing on the plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in a representative sample of 51 regions and 73 cities across 9 Mediterranean countries (Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain). The study investigates: (i) the availability of local and regional mitigation plans, (ii) their goals in term of greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets on the short and medium-long term, and (iii) the impact of transnational climate networks on such local and regional climate mitigation planning. Results of this study indicate an uneven and fragmented planning, that shows a Mediterranean West-East divide, and a link with population size. However, overall, both regional and city action seem insufficiently ambitious with regards to meeting the Paris Agreement, at least at city level. While national frameworks are currently weak in influencing regional and local actions, transnational networks seem to be engaging factors for commitment (at city level) and ambitiousness (at regional level). The uneven and fragmented progress revealed by this study, does not align with the characteristics shared by investigated regions and cities in terms of environmental, socio-political, climatic and economic conditions. The results support the call of a common green deal at the Mediterranean level to further address specific Mediterranean challenges and related needs. This will allow to capitalise on available resources, generate local-specific knowledge, build capacities, and support Mediterranean regions and cities in preparing the next generation of more ambitious mitigation plans. [Display omitted] • Analysis of mitigation plans of 51 regions and 73 cities in Mediterranean Europe. • Uneven progress, with West-East divide and a generally modest short-term ambition. • Bigger size Mediterranean regions and cities show higher climate action. • Mitigation planning is affected by national regulation and transnational networks. • There is a case for cross-border cooperation among Mediterranean regions and cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between temperature and hospitalization in China. Using inpatient visit claims of two major public insurance schemes covering 47 cities in 28 provinces for three years, we see a 7.3% increase in hospital admissions on days on which the average temperature is above 27 °C, and a 2% increase in 31-day cumulative hospital admissions relative to a benchmark-temperature day in the subsequent weeks. Such an effect is much larger than evidence from developed economies. Using detailed information on medical bills, we calculate that an additional hot day nationwide is associated with approximately 2 billion yuan (roughly equivalent to 0.3 billion US dollars) increase in medical expenses that are related to inpatient services, 1.9 billion yuan (roughly equivalent to 0.29 billion US dollars) of which is borne by the public insurance system, and 0.2 billion yuan (roughly equivalent to 0.01 billion US dollars) of which is borne by the insured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We review the state of research on human-environment interaction in Holocene China. • We demonstrate the benefits of a multidisciplinary, regionally focused approach. • We conclude datasets must be local and specific, and integrate data on multiple scales. • China is large, well-documented, and critical for understanding social-natural systems. This paper reviews recent archaeological research on human-environment interaction in the Holocene, taking continental China as its geographic focus. As China is large, geographically diverse, and exceptionally archaeologically and historically well-documented, research here provides critical insight into the functioning of social-natural systems. Based on a broad review of the field as well as recent advances and discoveries, the authors reflect on research themes including climate change and adaptive systems theory, spatial and temporal scale, anthropogenic environmental change, risk management and resilience, and integration of subdisciplines. These converge on three overarching conclusions. First, datasets relevant to climate change and ancient human-environment interaction must be as local and specific as possible, as the timing of environmental change differs locally, and the human response is highly dependent on local social and technological conditions. Second, the field still needs more robust theoretical frameworks for analyzing complex social-natural systems, and especially for integrating data on multiple scales. Third, for this work to contribute meaningfully to contemporary climate change research, effective communication of research findings to the public and to scientists in other disciplines should be incorporated into publication plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diffusion of renewable energy sources (RES) is a fundamental objective of the worldwide policy actions for sustainable development, at the UN level with the sustainable development goals (SDG) recommendations, to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all (SDG 7). Also, primary attention to RES has been given at the EU level with the new Green Deal and the new objectives of the Next Generation EU after the Covid pandemic, and at the level of national Governments worldwide. So far, there has not been an analysis of the RES convergence process across countries worldwide, given that the issue of climate change is a global externality. Previous analyses have focused on specific regions, such as EU, OECD, provinces of China. This paper fills this gap, providing new evidence on the convergence process of RES for the 176 countries that account for more than 98% of the world population, from 1990 to 2018. A common panel data set has been used to take into account countries' specific effects. Several socio-economics and political variables are introduced to test conditional convergence such as openness to trade, developments in financial markets, income distribution, level of education. The results of this new contribution reveal that there is evidence of sigma-absolute and conditional beta-convergence process for several groups of countries. Moreover, the conditional convergence analysis shows that spatial spillover effects exert rich and complex impact on convergence speed. Finally, we provide policy recommendations, highlighting that the decarbonization target in 2050 needs additional mobilization of public and private resources to pursue a common, convergence path worldwide. • We analyze the renewable energy convergence process across countries worldwide. • We analyses the catching-up measuring the gap between benchmark and non-benchmark. • We use variables RES as percentage of electricity production and energy consumption. • We find that heterogeneity exists in the worldwide RES convergence process. • A possible line for future research could be to disaggregate renewable sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As recognized by the Paris Climate Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), local and subnational regions are crucial actors to achieve international mitigation and adaptation commitments. Scientific literature and empirical evidence point at multi-level climate governance as a crucial factor to engage subnational levels in the achievement of national and international objectives. This work focuses on the multi-level climate governance arrangements in Italy to investigate how Italian regions/provinces/cities are contributing to the achievement of national commitments. To this purpose, the paper undertakes a review of the climate policies of different tiers of government adopted to date and of the interrelationships among them. The results of the analysis show that the effective coordination between the different government levels should be strengthened to further incentivize and support initiatives at the local level. Results also show the relevant role played by international regional and city climate networks in boosting local and regional climate planning in Italy. • Climate plans of 21 Italian regions, 32 provinces, and 32 cities were assessed. • 57% of the Italian regions; 13% of provinces and 78% of cities set a carbon target. • 10% of regions, no province, and 2% of municipalities have an adaptation plan. • Cities are more active than provinces and regions in defining mitigation policies. • Active multilevel governance is effective for implementing climate plans in cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]