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Carbon mitigation effectiveness in the building sector profoundly determines the achievement of the "Dual carbon" target. However, the timetable and roadmap for the building sector to achieve such a target are still lacking. This study constructs a STIRPAT-PLS model framework to clarify the impact of the key factors from various dimensions on building carbon emissions across sub-sectors. Then, a dynamic scenario simulation model is established and applied in China to explore the dynamic evolutionary paths, and the timetable and roadmap are ultimately formulated. The results show that building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). Rural residential buildings will peak earliest in 2026 (± 1), followed by urban residential and commercial buildings: in 2036 (± 2) and 2038 (± 1). Achieving carbon neutrality will require the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. The remaining 0.56–0.81 Gt CO 2 by 2060 will be offset by negative carbon technologies. Dynamic sensitivity analysis shows that building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks, and population and building floor space per capita markedly impact the peaking times. This study can promote the development of the theory and model for carbon emissions prediction. It can also offer a scientific basis for governments to set effective carbon-reduction targets and paths. [Display omitted] • Constructing a STIRPAT-PLS model to clarify the impact of critical factors on building carbon emissions. • Establishing a dynamic scenario simulation model by combining the Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis. • Building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). • Achieving carbon neutrality requires the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. • Building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization has an important impact on building energy consumption. Unfortunately, whether the later-urbanized provincial regions are more energy-efficient than those early-urbanized regions in the building sector is still unclear. This study innovatively adopts the difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the event effect of urbanization on building energy intensity with China's provincial evidence from 2000–2015. Moreover, its influence mechanism is identified with the mediating effect model. Results demonstrate that: (1) The building energy intensity is higher in provincial regions where the urbanization rate reached 45% earlier, indicating that the later-urbanized regions are more energy-efficient. (2) Considering heterogeneity, the event of urbanization rate reaching 45% contributes positively to building energy intensity in the eastern and central regions, but the effect in the western region is insignificant. This can further validate the later-mover advantage of the urbanization. (3) Regarding influence mechanism, urbanization can drive building energy intensity by increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry and population density or reducing the proportion of building coal consumption and the plot ratio of the urban area. This study can facilitate the related theoretical and practical exploration of the event effect of urbanization on energy consumption, which is conducive to formulating differentiated energy-conservation strategies. [Display omitted] • The DID model is applied to explore the event effect of urbanization on the building energy intensity. • The effect of urbanization on building energy intensity is explored considering regional heterogeneity. • The influence mechanism of urbanization on building energy consumption is investigated. • Later-urbanized regions are more energy-efficient in the building sector. • Urbanization can improve building energy intensity by potential mediating variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon-reduction effect of the urban residential building sector is crucial to the carbon neutrality target. This study aims to explore the interaction mechanism among influencing factors and simulate the future evolutionary trajectories of urban residential building carbon emissions (URBCE). An integrated dynamic emission assessment (IDEA) model is innovatively established by coupling the system dynamics (SD) model and a bottom-up end-use decomposition model. Combining with the scenario analysis approach, this IDEA model is applied in China's urban residential building sector from 2000 to 2060. Results show that under the baseline scenario, the URBCE will fail to peak before 2030 but will peak at 1.19 Bt CO 2 in 2037. In comparison, it will peak at 0.79 Bt CO 2 in 2025 and decline to 0.17 Bt CO 2 in 2060 under carbon-neutral scenario, which can be neutralized by negative carbon technologies. Different end-uses and climate zones show marked discrepancies in emission-reduction potential, with the contribution of heating and appliances being over 50%. Sensitivity analyses shows that the low-carbon awareness, electrification rate, proportion of clean energy generation and technological progress contribute positively to the early peak of URBCE. This study provides a deeper understanding of China's potential peaking paths and can assist policy-makers in better evaluating emission paths for other nations and regions. [Display omitted] • Develops an IDEA model by combining system dynamics model and LEAP model. • Explores the interaction and feedback mechanism among different levels of factors. • Simulates the URBCE by combining the IDEA model and scenario analysis approach. • Urban residential buildings will peak at 1.19 Bt CO 2 in 2037 under the BAU scenario. • Different end-uses and climate zones show marked discrepancies in emission-reduction potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]