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With the occurrence of the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. unconventional monetary policy affected the Chinese market. Based on a monthly data sample from 2008M1 to 2015M12, in this paper we identify U.S. and Chinese monetary policy shocks by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with multi-external instrumental variables along with principal component analysis (PCA) combined with high-frequency financial market data. The empirical results show that the unconventional monetary policies had a negative effect on China's inflation and output due to the signal effect, and China's stock and commodity markets increased in the short term. During the same period, China's monetary policy had a greater impact on the domestic economy and financial markets. The conclusion of this paper provides a significant reference for relevant departments to make decisions amidst the new wave of unconventional U.S. monetary policies due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of fiscal policy over business cycles has been a source of major controversy despite the growing empirical literature and international experience. This paper proposes an analytical framework that allows us to analyze the transmission channels of fiscal policy, updating the most recent findings after the pandemic. In this way, it aims to contribute to a more detailed understanding of some of the main mechanisms by which fiscal policy affects the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce the delayed-advanced Kaldorian business cycle model and consider how time-delay and time-advance affect economic fluctuations. Given the asymptotic stability of the original Kaldor model, we first show that an approximated Kaldor model by a Taylor series expansion can accurately describe the dynamics of the delayed Kaldor model. We also confirm that the delay has a destabilizing effect. When time-delay is replaced with time-advance, we have an advanced Kaldor model. Taking the advanced capital stock formulation, we derive the stability conditions and find that the time-advance has a stabilizing effect. Lastly, we examine these opposite-signed effects in a modified delayed-advanced model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sets up a small open new Keynesian economy model with constrained households and incomplete markets to address the driving forces of business cycles in Korea. It shows that there exists a substantial fraction of constrained households who cannot have access to financial market. Furthermore, the estimated model reveals that a TANK model is better than a RANK model in explaining business cycles in Korea. The effect of domestic productivity shock on Korean economy has dominated in the variations of output, while the contribution of the foreign productivity shock to the variations of output and inflation has increased after the Asian financial crisis. The monetary policy shock has dominated the variation of inflation at short and medium horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current situation of the Romanian economy must be understood beginning from the analysis of the main measures of fiscal-budgetary policy applied over the last years by the public authority. In general, the Romanian fiscal policy (before and after accession) was procyclical. However, we continue by presenting some of its characteristics for the past years when we underwent the last ascending phase of the economic cycle. Actually, Romania's GDP exceeded constantly the potential level, and the demand surplus became predominant, generating inflationary pressures. Maintaining the expansionist level of the fiscal policy, in the conditions of a positive deviation of GDP, as of 2017, and opting-out regarding the structural deficit target contributed to affecting the stability of public finances, on short-and medium-term. Romania entered into an extremely difficult economic context, generated by the pandemic, with an extremely narrow fiscal space which limited a lot the possibilities of combating the effects of the pandemic. In this paper we analyzed a period limited to the year 2020, because we consider this time as marking the end of an economic cycle in a period of peace and economic calm, as another is about to begin based on the new realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly leads to budget and schedule contingencies. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In the literature, a considerable number of papers have tried to determine construction PM challenges, mainly using statistical methods. These methods do not consider the cause-and-effect relationship among variables. To enhance the existing methods, this paper applies social network analysis (SNA) principles in order to rank a group of variables based on cause-and-effect relationships. To demonstrate the proposed idea, a data set is constructed that includes different types of challenges acquired from the literature comprehended with the forward-chaining approach. In total, 49 critical challenges were identified and subsequently categorized into 12 groups. Two questionnaires were designed to assist in ranking the challenges. 108 construction experts and 20 panelists participated in this study, and the acquired data were used to evaluate the proposed SNA-based method. By applying the proposed method to the obtained data, a complex weighted and directed network is constructed and examined by three metrics: weighted in-degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality. The results revealed that poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, and poor decision making are the main challenges that occur in the construction environment. Moreover, it was figured out that considering the cause-and-effect relationship among variables resulted in a highly different ranking of challenges, much closer to the real situation. This model could be used in quantitative-analytical research conducted in the construction project knowledge area in order to obtain more interpretable answers. Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly lead to time and cost overruns. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In this research, comprehensive scientific efforts were made in order to rank the main PMs' challenges in the construction sector, especially in developing countries. For this purpose, cause-and-effect relationships among variables were considered. By using different questionnaires as well as forming different focus groups and interviewing different experts, we found that the main top 10 challenges in the construction sector are: poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, poor decision making, time pressure, rework, stressful atmosphere, design alteration (even after execution), workforce turnover, fluctuation rate and economic instability, and inappropriate and unrealistic scheduling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides pioneering estimates of the impact of loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, also known as leverage, on Bolivia's GDP. The empirical evidence reveals the pro-cyclicality between the economic and financial cycles, which affects the intertemporal resource allocation processes between the financial and real sectors. The findings from the RBC model demonstrate that shocks in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios trigger a rise in housing prices and greater consumption by entrepreneurs, leading to an increase in investment, employment, and output. Additionally, the study confirms that LTV ratios can be a double-edged instrument, as excessive use can potentially destabilize the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between the gross value added (GVA) of Greece's agricultural sector and the GVAs of the other sectors. The research considers both the relationship between value levels and the cycles of GVAs. Dynamic analysis using ARDL modeling shows that there is no cointegration between agricultural GVA and the other GVAs. However, there is an estimated cointegrating relationship between business cycles of agriculture and those of the rest of the economic sectors, with the cycles of services being the significant variable. Moreover, econometric analysis using NARDL modeling shows that there is a cointegrating relationship between the levels of GVAs as well, when asymmetricity—with respect to GVA changes of the services sector—is introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heritage tourism in Egypt, differentiated by its distinctive ancient wonders and cultural prosperity, has faced numerous challenges through its history, with political unrest, economic fluctuations, and, most recently, the global COVID-19 pandemic. This research paper investigates the dynamic interplay between planned and adopted resilience within the hotel sector in Egyptian heritage sites and their consequential effects on both social and economic sustainability. A quantitative research method was employed to empirically explore these dynamics. A structured questionnaire was distributed to 550 top and middle managers in hotels located in heritage sites, capturing insights into their perspectives on planned and adopted resilience. The collected data underwent rigorous analysis utilizing "partial least squares structural equation modeling" (PLS-SEM), providing a robust foundation for drawing meaningful conclusions. Findings from the research underscore the necessity of aligning planned and adopted resilience to generate sustainable social and economic performance. The synthesis of planned and adopted resilience was revealed to be pivotal in generating sustainable social and economic performance for hotels. This synthesis catalyzes the hotels' ability to mitigate uncertainties, adjust to changing environment, and ensure long-term viability. This research might contribute to the current literature by suggesting industry-specific awareness for the reciprocal relationship between planned and adopted resilience in the hotel businesses and their combined influence on both sides of sustainability (social and economic). The findings provide actionable recommendations for hotel management, policymakers, and industry stakeholders to enhance resilience, foster social cohesion, and ensure the economic sustainability of heritage tourism in an everchanging environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Unemployment is a huge topic for policymakers, scholars, and, in general, society. Historically, there have always been a lot of discussions about this phenomenon. It is already acknowledged that unemployment is closely related to economic activity: when the economy is growing, more people are employed, and when economic activity is low, employment decreases, and unemployment rises. This relation is well-researched in the framework of Okun's law. However, it is far less known how this relationship holds if international economic relations are introduced. Thus, the motivation for the research was to examine the role of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growthunemployment nexus. Purpose of the article: To assess how trade and FDI affect growth and gender-, age-, and educational attainment level-specific unemployment relationship and on what scale this effect varies over different business cycle phases. Methods: Scientific literature review, comparative analysis, and panel regression. Findings & value added: Given the lack of research examining what effect FDI and trade have on the growth-unemployment nexus, this paper estimates modified Okun's equation on the European Union (EU) countries (EU-28, by the composition of the EU until 31/01/2020) for the period from 2000 to 2019 while incorporating international aspects that can have an impact on this nexus. Also, this study develops a specification that can be useful to monitor the potentially different effects of FDI and trade on the growth-unemployment nexus during different business cycle phases. The estimations of the panel regression for unemployment disaggregated by age, gender and education level has showed that import, export, inward FDI, and outward FDI have a negative effect on the growth-unemployment nexus. It means that with an increase in the intensity of international economic relations, the influence of gross domestic product (GDP) growth on unemployment becomes less significant. Thus, the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy to reduce unemployment becomes less effective in more open economies, which in the case of the EU are the smallest member states with relatively small domestic markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In financial asset allocation, enterprises adjust their investment in R&D innovation according to their motives and the external environment. Based on a review of the literature related to enterprise financialization and R&D innovation, this paper proposes research hypotheses through theoretical analysis first; then, taking China's A-share non-financial listed companies from 2010 to 2019 as research objects, this paper explores the relationship between enterprise financialization and R&D innovation with a quantile panel data model; further, the heterogeneous relationship between the two under different business cycle phases is empirically analyzed. The following conclusions are drawn. First, there is a dynamic relationship between enterprise financialization and R&D innovation, varying with different financing constraints. Second, the dynamic relationship between enterprise financialization and R&D innovation stems from the motivation difference in enterprise asset allocation. Third, there are significant differences in the dynamic relationship at different business cycle phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic forecasting is crucial since it benefits many different parties, such as governments, businesses, investors, and the general public. This paper presents a novel methodology for forecasting business cycles using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), a popular linear model in time series forecasting, and a neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM) as a forecasting model generator. The study used a dataset that included seven components of the leading composite index, which is used to predict positive or negative trends in several economic sectors before the GDP is compiled. The preprocessed time series data comprising the leading composite index using ARIMA were used as input vectors for the NEWFM to predict comprehensive business fluctuations. The prediction capability significantly improved through the duplicated refining process of the dataset using ARIMA and NEWFM. The combined ARIMA and NEWFM techniques exceeded ARIMA in both classification and prediction, yielding an accuracy of 91.61%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper is to analyze changes and peculiarities of behavior of economic agents with bounded rationality in the New Keynesian model, in which imported equipment and technology are one of the factors of production, and households consume only domestic products. The formation of output gap and inflation expectations by agents is based on stationary values of these variables and on extrapolation of the latest available data on inflation and the output gap. The weight shares of agents applying these rules change endogenously. Histograms of the frequency distribution of the degree of buoyancy and the impulse responses of monetary policy shocks and technology shocks to the variables under study show that a less open economy tends to go through an economic cycle with a smaller amplitude than a more rigid economy. Analyses of the trade-offs between the volatility of inflation and the output gap at different parameter values in the Taylor rule show their non-linear nature (in contrast to standard models with rational expectations). An important result obtained in this analysis is that the rational expectations hypothesis is more consistent with a closed economy than with an open one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Population ageing will bring economic challenges in the future. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether increased educational level could mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability, measured as the gap between labour income and consumption. Design/methodology/approach: Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology, the authors decompose labour income and consumption by age and educational level (low, medium and high) and compare obtained age profiles with those calculated conventionally. In addition, using the population projections by age and educational level, the authors project both profiles to 2060 for selected EU countries and assess future economic sustainability. Findings: The results show that the highly educated have a significantly higher surplus for a longer period then those with lower and medium education. Therefore, the improved educational level of individuals will have a substantially positive impact on labour income in the future—on average by about 32% by 2060 for all EU countries included. However, as the better educated also consume more, higher production does not fully translate into improved economic sustainability, but the resulting net effect is still positive at about 19%. Originality/value: The authors present for the first time an NTA by education for 15 EU countries and show the importance of including education in the analysis of the economic life cycle. The authors also show that increased educational level will mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distributed energy system (DES) represents an innovative approach to energy generation and distribution that promotes decentralization and diversification of energy sources. DESs can offer numerous benefits, including increased resiliency, reduced transmission losses, improved efficiency, and lower carbon emissions. The optimal design of a DES requires careful consideration of various factors such as geographical location, climate conditions, and energy demand patterns. This paper utilizes a multi-objective genetic algorithm to optimize the combination of technologies and their corresponding sizes in a distributed energy system for three types of commercial buildings—hospitals, large offices, and large hotels across eight different climate zones in the U.S. A range of technologies are considered for integration into the DES. These technologies include photovoltaic systems, wind turbines, combined heat and power systems, solar thermal collectors, and electrical and thermal energy storage. The two objectives considered are maximizing the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and minimizing the life cycle costs for the DES. The purpose of this study is to optimize and evaluate the multi-objective design of distributed energy systems aimed at decentralizing and diversifying energy sources. The analysis of optimized DES designs across all 24 case scenarios shows that a balance between cost saving and emission reduction has been achieved. Although this study primarily focuses on specific buildings and climate zones, the methods and findings can be adapted for a wider variety of building types across different geographical locations, thus paving the way for more widespread adoption of optimized distributed energy systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles. Region‐specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a well‐known and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: The globalization trend has inevitably enhanced the connectivity of global financial markets, making the cyclicality of financial activities and the spread of market imbalances have received widespread attention, especially after the global financial crisis. Purpose of the article: To reduce the negative effects of the contagiousness of the financial cycles, it is necessary to study the persistence of financial cycles and carve out the total connectedness, spillover paths, and sources of risks on a global scale. In addition, understanding the relationship between the financial cycle and economic development is an important way to prevent financial crises. Methods: This paper adopts the nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) model to extract cyclical and phase characteristics of financial cycles based on 24 countries during 1971Q1-2015Q4, covering developed and developing countries, the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In addition, the frequency connectedness approach is used to measure the connectedness of financial cycles and the relationship between the global financial cycle and the global economy. Findings & value added: The analysis reveals that aggregate financial cycles persist for 13.3 years for smoothed and 8.7 years for unsmoothed on average. The national financial cycles are asynchronous and exhibit more prolonged expansions and faster contractions. The connectedness of financial cycles is highly correlated with systemic crises and contributes to the persistence and harmfulness of shocks. It is mainly driven by short-term components and exhibits more pronounced interconnectedness within regions than across regions. During the financial crisis, the global financial cycle movements precede and are longer than the business fluctuations. Based on the study, some policy implications are presented. This paper emphasizes the impact of systemic crises on the persistence of financial cycles and their connectedness, which contributes to refining research related to the coping mechanisms of financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural development in Alberta is a long‐standing challenge, with local communities and economies often stuck between economic cycles, fiscal largesse from the Provincial Government, and a historical pattern of conservative leadership that seeks to leave the private sector unimpeded. As a result, many rural communities now face significant economic, social, political, and ecological challenges that, while not unique to Alberta, are marked by only modest innovation and a tendency to return to previous developmental initiatives. This paper is focused upon identifying the common challenges facing municipal government in the province, but also accounting for the inertial dynamics within municipal politics. Drawing from qualitative data collected from rural municipalities, it seeks to situate contemporary adaptive economic strategies and initiatives within the dominant public ideology of the province. This paper argues that while reform initiatives undertaken in the province broadly align with pragmatic municipalism as a necessary response to decades of neoliberal austerity and inertia, that pragmatism is tempered by a provincial rationality that limits, rather than enhances, the likelihood of meaningful change. This rationality, and its effects, are explained through four fallacies: home rule, agency, the Golden Age, and homogeneity. Key Messages: Albertan municipalities are innovative and pragmatic, and not solely embedded in reducing costs due to budgetary constraints.Provincial governments have a long history of limiting institutional, jurisdictional, or legislative changes that could facilitate municipal sustainability.Choices for municipalities are structured by an institutional inertia that rhetorically emphasizes the autonomy, individualism, responsibility, and accountability of rural municipalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the port industry is very important in the Korean economy, there are few literature studies that shed light on the macroeconomic implications of the business cycles in this industry. This paper examines the roles played by foreign economic factors in the business cycle in the Korean port industry. Specifically, it aims to estimate the impulse response of the seaborne freight volume in the port industry due to the shocks of the foreign economy and analyze the contributions of each shock considered on the variation in the freight volume. The structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) model was employed to extract the unobserved foreign economic factors. This paper estimates the four foreign economic factors and the parameters of the model using the one-step Bayesian Gibbs sampling method. The findings of this study show that foreign economic activity statistically affects the freight volume of the Korean ports. Specifically, the shocks to the foreign real economic activity increased freight transportation for nearly one year. Following the world inflation shocks, the freight transportation was enhanced. However, this impact disappeared after a year. Similarly, the rise in global liquidity was shown to encourage transportation activity; nevertheless, this activity declined after five quarters. Moreover, the increase in the world interest rates exerted a negative effect on the volume of transportation. Furthermore, the variance decomposition analysis shows that 49.2% of the variation in the transportation volume could be attributed to foreign economic activity. This analysis can contribute to drawing useful implications in establishing the port industry policy in response to the change in the economic environment such as the foreign economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper advances understanding of multiplier-accelerator interaction in European countries in the 21st century. More than eight decades from the contributions of Keynes and Samuelson, multiplier-accelerator interaction has spawned rich and interesting literature. In this study, we examined the relationship between investment, consumption, and economic growth for European Economic Area (EEA) countries, with data observed between 2000 and 2021. We found evidence for both multiplier and accelerator effects. However, for most European economies, the multiplier effect is stronger than the accelerator effect, helping to explain the profile of economic cycles. These results present two emerging policy implications. First, investment made in Europe reacts to the rates of economic growth observed in recent periods. Investment dynamics have long been highlighted as promoters of economic growth and competitiveness. Economic agents use investments to improve their strategic position as agents of long-term socioeconomic development. Second, the estimated effects are not uniform over time; investments react in the same direction as the economic growth observed in the previous years. This nonlinearity of effects obliges all decision-makers to duly anticipate these reactions as well as obliges the academic community to further study the subject. The existence of spatial competition in the distribution of investments leads to strategic behaviours by which competing countries ensure long term national competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the global semiconductor industry has entered a new round of rapid growth, it has also entered a golden cycle of economic growth. Semiconductor companies increase their intrinsic value through financing, industry mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital searches. At the same time, market investors pay more attention to the intrinsic value of companies when looking for good investment targets. Therefore, the systematic risk assessment of the global semiconductor market has become a common concern of market investors and corporate management. In this context, this paper found a method that can assess the systemic risk of the semiconductor global market, which is to use the K-means algorithm based on deep feature fusion. This paper analyzed the algorithm in depth, analyzed the quantum space of tensors, and used the definition of cluster fusion to obtain the relationship between the projection matrices U and V. Experiments were carried out on the improved algorithm, and market research was conducted on a multinational semiconductor company A, which mainly included the basic statistics of the rate of return and the ACF and PACF coefficients of the rate of return series. Finally, the stock risk comparison of company A and company B in the same period was carried out. The experimental results showed that comparing the three items of compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, and active rate coefficient, the highest compound growth rate was 0.41, which came from Category 2, the highest variation coefficient was 2.31, which came from Category 10, and the highest active rate coefficient was 1.78, which came from Category 9. The experimental content was completed well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty reduction is an important driving force for the global realization of the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and the building of a global community with a shared future for mankind. This paper takes the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the panel data of 134 countries in the world from 2000 to 2018, this paper uses the difference-in-difference (DID) model to examine the impact of the BRI on poverty reduction in countries along the route and to study its internal mechanism from the dual perspectives of trade openness and investment openness. The results show that (1) the BRI can significantly reduce the incidence of poverty with the impact coefficient stable at −0.26, and the empirical conclusion has passed the parallel test, placebo test, and instrumental variable test; (2) the mediating effect test model shows that the BRI can achieve poverty reduction through the dual openness of trade and investment, and the intermediary effect of trade openness is greater than investment openness; and (3) from the perspective of heterogeneity analysis, geographically, the BRI has a slightly higher role in promoting poverty reduction in landlocked countries than in coastal countries. In terms of economic location, the effect of poverty reduction has a certain "pro-poverty" characteristic, that is, the BRI promotes poverty reduction in low- and middle-income countries far more than other types of income countries. Therefore, we believe that the continuous deepening of the BRI high-quality construction and the strengthening of cooperation among countries along the route will play a key role in promoting the international cycle of trade, investment, and other factors, as well as the cause of poverty reduction in the region and the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adopts the method of the random matrix to conduct an in-depth study and analysis of the management of macroeconomic multivariate statistics and regionalization, and to design its management strategy based on a random matrix. A combination of theoretical and applied research, combined with the experience of other cities, is used to study regional economic management using literature analysis, comparative analysis, and deductive induction by summarizing the results achieved in community management, studying its experience, exploring the significance of community management in ETDZs for social development, analyzing the current obstacles and contradictions affecting community management in Suqian ETDZ, and proposing relevant countermeasures for the problems arising therein to enrich the relevant theories and thus promote the level of community management in ETDZs to a higher level. Macroeconomic uncertainty refers to the changes that cannot be accurately observed, analyzed, and foreseen, i.e., the deviation of the expected value of the economy from the actual value. Not all macroeconomic fluctuations belong to the category of macroeconomic uncertainty, only unpredictable economic fluctuations are uncertain. It can be seen from the above that there is a corresponding relationship between the financial income correlation matrix and the random correlation matrix, and both are affected by the same random factors. The importance of uncertainty for macroeconomic policy making is undeniable, and its quantification is a key step. In this paper, we propose an econometric model to eliminate expectations and compare the advantages and disadvantages of different measurement models; we measure a system of fourteen macroeconomic indicators to reflect macroeconomic uncertainty and provide quantitative measurement results for the correct understanding of macroeconomic uncertainty and economic policy making. Factor analysis is used to analyze these six comprehensive aspects to obtain the six-dimensional comprehensive scores of each province and city, and the scores are normalized and visualized. Based on a certain understanding of the economic equilibrium structure of each province and city in China, and a certain control of the overall development of each region itself at this stage, the future economic development trend is studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The short- and long-term volatility of oil and gas prices has a wide-ranging impact on both parties of petroleum contractual agreements, thus affecting the profitability of the project at any stage. Therefore, the government (first party) and the international oil company (second party) set the parameters of their contracts in a way that reduces the uncertainty. The effect of price fluctuations on economic indicators is investigated in this paper. The Taguchi method is used for the first time to find the best-agreement parameters, which are the "A" and "B" factors, in the standard Libyan agreement. There are four "A" components from "A1" to "A4", and four "B" components from "B1" to "B4". The purpose is to reduce the variability in the response variables, which are the company take (the percent of net cash flow for the international company) and average value of the second-party percent share of production (ASPS). The noise factors considered in this paper are oil, liquefied hydrocarbon byproduct (LHP), and gas prices. The method was applied to a case study of oil field development in Libya. The results showed that "A3" and "A4" were the most important control factors that affect the ASPS, while "B2" and "B3" are the most important factors affecting the company take. To obtain robust results, the most important factors to reduce variability were also determined. The effect of control parameters on the average NPV may be worth more than USD 22 MM in the 1-billion-barrel oilfield case study. The results showed that, for a given combination of "A" and "B" factors with a certain company take, the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the NPV of the second party was reduced by 18% if the optimal combinations of the levels were used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important macro-economic issue of developed and developing countries is how best to decompose an economic time series into permanent (trend) and transitory (cycle) components. The issue is vital in empirical macroeconomics since, among other things, it relates to how one can estimate the output gap-the deviation of an economy's output from its potential or trend output. This paper considers how well the unobserved components model and the Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter decomposes real gross domestic product (GDP) in a small island developing state, the state of Barbados. The correlated unobserved components model for Barbados studied in the Agbeyegbe (2020) is modified to allow a second-order Markov trend. The effect of this modification is to make it possible to recover the HP trend as a particular case. The paper then compares several methods useful for trend decomposition of real GDP in Barbados. The competing methods are variants of two widely used trend-cycle decompositions of GDP that give markedly different estimates. Namely, methods based on the unobserved components model (UC) and the HP filter. The correlated unobserved components model produces smaller output gaps in amplitude, whereas the HP filter generates significant and persistent cycles. More specifically, the methods are: (i) the HP filter; (ii) an augmented HP filter (HP-AR), that allows for cyclical components to be serially correlated, introduced by Grant and Chan (2017b); (iii) the correlated unobserved components model (UCUR), without a break; (iv) the correlated unobserved components model (UCUR-t), with a break at time t; and (v) a correlated unobserved components model that allows for a second-order Markov trend process UCUR-2M. The result shows that for Barbados, with data covering the period 1967-2017, the correlated unobserved components model that allows for a break in trend fits the data better than the HP specification. These results are significant from a policy perspective. Knowing the correct duration of the business cycle is essential to providing appropriate recommendations; the result argues against the use of HP-filter in analyzing Barbados' business cycle. The result also finds that for Barbados, it is empirically important to correlate permanent and transitory shocks. By ignoring this correlation, researchers risk providing a misleading analysis of how the Barbadian economy works. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deeply investigating the relationship between governance, financial development, and outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) is beneficial to formulating effective policies to accelerate Chinese firms' pace of overseas expansion. Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of Asian governance and financial development on China's OFDI using the panel data of 37 Asian countries from 2003 to 2017. The results show that the host country governance has a negative and statistically significant impact on China's direct investment in Asia. The conclusion remains valid even after overcoming the interference of endogenous and economic cycle fluctuations. Moreover, using the mediating effect model, we find that financial development is an important channel through which host country governance affects China's OFDI. In further discussion, the findings suggest that with the scale of OFDI expanding, the role of governance takes an inverted "U" shape, and the "Belt and Road" initiative (BRI) weakens the negative impact of governance quality on China's OFDI. Furthermore, governance has shown more remarkable restraint on China's OFDI in neighboring, coastal, and low-income countries in the heterogeneity test. ​From the perspective of host country governance, this paper provides more specific guidance to formulate China's direct investment policy in Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Affected by the fluctuation of the market and economic environment during the epidemic period, the capital pressure of companies has increased sharply, which increases the possibility of risk transmission in the same industry and poses new challenges to the operation and financing of companies. From the perspective of preventive motivation of corporate cash holding, we creatively use the industry working capital shortfall as the explanatory variable to construct an Extended Cash Holding Model and a Cash Holding Value Regression Model. Taking the panel data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen as samples, this paper uses the Classical Linear Regression Model and Fixed Effects Regression Model to study the relationship between industry working capital shortfall and cash holdings in the same industry, as well as the relationship between industry working capital shortfall and cash holding value. The empirical results show that industry working capital shortfall has an important impact on the cash holding level within the same industry, and the cash holding level is significantly and positively correlated with industry working capital shortfall. Moreover, this study also reveals that the industry working capital shortfall has a dual impact on cash holdings. Specifically, the higher the risk of industry working capital shortfall, the lower the value of company cash holdings. The conclusions of this paper not only extend the research on cash holding but also provide support and reference for companies to optimize the cash holding value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Affected by the fluctuation of the market and economic environment during the epidemic period, the capital pressure of companies has increased sharply, which increases the possibility of risk transmission in the same industry and poses new challenges to the operation and financing of companies. From the perspective of preventive motivation of corporate cash holding, we creatively use the industry working capital shortfall as the explanatory variable to construct an Extended Cash Holding Model and a Cash Holding Value Regression Model. Taking the panel data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen as samples, this paper uses the Classical Linear Regression Model and Fixed Effects Regression Model to study the relationship between industry working capital shortfall and cash holdings in the same industry, as well as the relationship between industry working capital shortfall and cash holding value. The empirical results show that industry working capital shortfall has an important impact on the cash holding level within the same industry, and the cash holding level is significantly and positively correlated with industry working capital shortfall. Moreover, this study also reveals that the industry working capital shortfall has a dual impact on cash holdings. Specifically, the higher the risk of industry working capital shortfall, the lower the value of company cash holdings. The conclusions of this paper not only extend the research on cash holding but also provide support and reference for companies to optimize the cash holding value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, the circular economy is emerging as a strategy for sustainable development. What is important in promoting the circular economy is to assess its current level and take measures for assessment. This paper discusses some methodological issues in comparing and assessing the efforts for the circular economy at the international level. To this end, the authors explain the theoretical premise related to the assessment of efforts for the circular economy, establish an indicator system for assessing the efforts for the circular economy, and suggest a method for comprehensively assessing the efforts for the circular economy by country. The conclusions are that (a) the comparative evaluation of activities related to the circular economy by country requires a unified standard or category that can cover these activities, including all factors that meet sustainable development; the outcome, process, and guarantee of the circular economy, and this can be the circular economy effort and (b) the circular economy effort of a given country must synthetically be assessed by using the indicators capable of showing all aspects. These conclusions may contribute to establishing a new theoretical foundation that can include various aspects of the circular economy activities and to setting a practical and methodological foundation for evaluating each country's various activities related to the circular economy at the international level and can serve as a policy basis for identifying the weak and strong aspects of circular economy activities at the domestic or international level and establishing technological and economic measures to strengthen the weak aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global political and economic agenda cycle of the 21st century, interest in the seas has spread rapidly. The security of maritime areas, which are central in issues such as transportation, global trade, natural resource reserves, and transfer, has also become a part of national and international security strategies, especially since the beginning of the 2000s. However, different perspectives on the concept of "maritime security" lead to the lack of a single definition of the concept. Therefore, the factors threatening the security in question should be mentioned differently. The absence of widely agreed upon maritime security threats both complicates global cooperation on maritime security and weakens the fight against these threats. Identifying the most serious and common threats to maritime security is essential for joint action in the fight against them. This study aims to carry out a comprehensive analysis in defining the concept of maritime security and to identify the most serious threats to maritime security in the 21st century. For this purpose, 21st-century maritime security threats have been determined within the scope of academic studies, strategy papers, military documents, and reports published by states and international organizations. Then, the severity levels of these threats were determined through the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) Method. As a result of the study, the three most important factors threatening maritime security in the 21st century are determined as climate change (with a significance level of 0.3169), marine pollution and environmental problems (with a significance level of 0.2104), and sea boundary disputes between states (with a severity level of 0.1783). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The GARCH model is one of the most influential models for characterizing and predicting fluctuations in economic and financial studies. However, most traditional GARCH models commonly use daily frequency data to predict the return, correlation, and risk indicator of financial assets, without taking data with other frequencies into account. Hence, financial market information may not be sufficiently applied to the estimation of GARCH-type models. To partially solve this problem, this paper introduces intraday high-frequency data to improve estimation of the volatility function of a semiparametric GARCH model. To achieve this objective, a semiparametric volatility proxy model was proposed, which includes both symmetric and asymmetric cases. Under mild conditions, the asymptotic normality of estimators was established. Furthermore, we also discuss the impact of different volatility proxies on estimation precision. Both the simulation and empirical results showed that estimation of the volatility function could be improved by the introduction of high-frequency data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Investment Savings-Liquidity preference Money supply (IS-LM) model is represented as a graph depicting the intersection of products and the money market. It elaborates how an equilibrium of money supply versus interest rates may keep the economy in control. In this paper, we combine the basic business cycle IS-LM model with Kaldor's growth model in order to create an augmented model. The IS-LM model, when coupled with a certain economics expansion (in our instance, the Kaldor–Kalecki Business Cycle Model), provides a comprehensive description of a developing but robust economy. Right after the introduction of capital stock into the system, it cannot be employed and also, while making some investment choices, this requires some time in execution, which ultimately alters resources, i.e. capital. Thus, in the capital accumulation, we will be incorporating double time delays in Gross product and Capital Stock. These time delays represent the time periods during which investment decisions were made and executed and the time spent in order for the capital to be put to productive use. After formulating a mathematical model using delayed differential equations, dynamic functioning of the system around equilibrium point is examined where three instances appeared based on time delays. These cases are: when both delays are not in action, when only one delay is in action and when both delays are in action. It is shown that time delay affects the stability of the equilibrium point and, as the delay crosses a critical point, Hopf bifurcation exists. It is observed that by using Kaldor type investment function, the delay residing in capital stock only will destabilize in less time as compared to when both the delays are present in the system. The system is sensitive to certain parameters which is also analyzed in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel developed Sprayed Ultra-High-Performance Cementitious Sandwich Panel (SUHPC-SP) for structural applications. The SUHPC-SP features sprayed UHPC outer layers making it suited for structural load bearing applications, and a foamed concrete core layer offering high thermal properties. With the development of enhanced material properties and novel production methods, the established SUHPC-SP can achieve optimal mechanical performance while minimising the volumes of material required. As such, this study assesses SUHPC-SP potential to increase sustainable outputs over reference Brick and Block (B&B) construction; by quantifying and comparing the whole life cycle environmental and economic impacts of the two methods. A comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) of these types of construction products is presented for the first time in this paper. The study found that integrating SUHPC-SP over typical B&B construction can reduce environmental impacts by as much as 500% and costs by up to 180%. This informs sustainable construction decisions, offering an effective alternative to conventional inefficient building methods and materials. • The study assesses the LCA of sprayed Ultra High-Performance Cementitious Sandwich Panels (SUHPC-SP). • A comparative LCA between SUHPC-SP and brick & block construction was assessed. • Sandwich panels have the potential to reduce costs and environmental impacts. • Using SUHPC-SP over typical brick & block reduces costs by up to 180%. • Using SUHPC-SP over typical brick & block reduces environmental impacts by up to 500%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of business cycles on unemployment rates in EU countries. The relationship between changes in gross domestic product and changes in the unemployment rate is referred to in the academic literature as Okun’s law. This law is of particular importance and the relationship has been extensively investigated in the scientific literature, but there are not many studies that analyse the European Union countries. This paper examines the relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP in the EU-27. The data used for the study cover the period 2007–2019. The results of a correlation regression analysis provide evidence of the inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP as established by theory. The results also show that the relationship between business cycles and unemployment varies from country to country: in Lithuania and the UK, there is a very strong inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP. In Lithuania, the coefficient was –0.9377, and a similar coefficient was found in the United Kingdom (-0.9337). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper examines disemployment effects of minimum wages during the period 2002–2010. Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ the discontinuity design. Findings: The authors find that minimum wages had a significant negative impact on teen employment before the Great Recession. During the Great Recession, the disemployment effects of minimum wages were insignificant. The finding is consistent with the evolution of firms' market power during the business cycle. Originality/value: The authors attempt to reconcile the debate about the effects of minimum wages on US employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examined whether the Wagner's law that represents the long-run relationship between income and public expenditure holds at the subnational level in India. It also examines whether the Wagner's law is revenue expenditure specific or capital expenditure specific in the context of Indian sub-nationals. The paper covers 21 Indian States and a time period of 40 years, from 1980-81 to 2019-20. In this study we have assessed six pairs of relationships among state-level income, public expenditures, revenue expenditure, capital outlay, public expenditure on economic services, public expenditure on social services, and expenditure on the developmental sector. The validity of the law was examined for nine different panels of states broadly under income categories and geographical regions. Unlike first-generation panel techniques, which fail to account for the aspects of cross-sectional independence and heterogeneity, the present study tests the validity of the Wagner's law using the second-generation panel unit root method and cointegration approach. The analysis adopted Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square to test the evidence of Wagner's law hypothesis. The findings reveal that Indian states are heterogeneous in terms of public expenditure, and there exists cross-sectional dependence. There also exists a long-run cointegrating relation between state-level income and state-level public expenditure. For the full sample, while this study finds holding Wagner's law, there is a mixed validity of the law in different panels across income categories and regions. In addition, it is observed that the validity of Wagner's law in the Indian Subnational context is mainly driven by the high-income major states, and it is more capital outlay centric. To conclude, these responsive affiliations comprehend the effectiveness of public expenditure as a fiscal policy instrument in stimulating economic growth and the contribution of economic growth in the budget exercise at the subnational level. Therefore, subnational governments need to be more strategic to ensure growth momentum as the public expenditure indirectly and directly causes the living standard and welfare of the people in the economy. It must be acknowledged that India adopted fiscal rules in 2005, which may limit the procyclical fiscal policy during the swings in the business cycle, and thus have implications for budget exercises at the subnational level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the transmission mechanisms that underlie China's house price fluctuations using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods, which accounts well for business cycle properties of the housing market. Results show that shocks to housing productivity and the government land supply to housing developers are the primary contributors to house price volatility, accounting for 37% of house price volatility in the short run and 32% in the long run. The importance of housing valuation shocks and shocks to migration only increases in models without the supply side of the housing market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper has two objectives, the first is to identify during the period 1993-2022 the economic cycles of Mexico and the USA. The second consists of showing the degree of economic integration of the two countries. Production data was obtained from the FRED database of the Federal Reserve of St. Louis. For the first objective, the growth cycles method was used, while for the second, an integration measure known as LINK was calculated. With the support of the growth cycle method, four cycles with five recessions were found in Mexico and the USA. Regarding integration, the percentage change in the variance of Mexican GDP because of innovations in US GDP, after 16 quarters, was a LINK of 87.48. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a large developing country, China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and its relationship to trade have always been subjects of extensive scrutiny in academic circles. With the continuous advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative (BRI), the pace of overseas expansion by Chinese firms has accelerated. This paper theoretically constructs a firm heterogeneity model of China's OFDI and bilateral trade, and conducts research based on panel data of China's OFDI in countries along the BRI from 2003 to 2019. The results show that China's OFDI can substantially enhance the potential for bilateral trade, and this conclusion remains robust after overcoming endogeneity and economic fluctuations. In a heterogeneity test, China's OFDI in countries along the "Land Silk Road" is shown to have a greater effect on trade potential than in countries along the "Maritime Silk Road." In the controlled test, China's OFDI to BRI countries has a greater role in upgrading trade potential than investment in other trading powerhouses. China's OFDI can promote the economic development of host countries along the BRI by strengthening the potential for bilateral trade. The results of this study are not only conducive to the "going global" of Chinese enterprises but also of practical significance for host countries to achieve high-quality economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence that monetary policies have on the financing decisions of Brazilian corporations. From this purpose, two hypotheses will be derived. The study sample is composed of 220 companies: 84 of consumer goods, 89 of capital assets, and 47 of public utility. The data collected refer to the years from 2009 to 2019, and the methodology used for data analysis is through quantile regressions and panel data models, using the GMM approach. According to the results, it can be concluded--in the light of the market timing theory, in line with the Austrian theory of economic cycles--that the capital structures of firms can be determined by the market moments, as defined by monetary policies, so that such influence is different depending on the sector to which the companies are located in the production chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing economic integration and global synchronization can be key for countries aiming to catch up in GDP per capita terms. Little attention has hitherto been placed in synchronization as determinant of convergence. In this paper we estimate the effect of economic globalization and synchronization on income convergence for a sample of 89 developed and developing countries in the period 1970–2015. We use a dynamic factor model and panel data techniques to undertake the objectives of the paper. We show that synchronized countries (those correlated with the factor) exhibit a higher response on GDP per capita growth with variations on the global business cycle. This implies that synchronization improves growth for that group in global expansionary phases, but also implies risks during global recessions. On the contrary, the effect on growth of an economic globalization index is less relevant for synchronized countries than for asynchronized countries. The latter result implies that asynchronized countries can benefit more increasing their levels of economic globalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The chaotic Rocard relaxation econometric system was proposed earlier than the Lorenz system. In this paper, the fractional-order Rocard system is investigated and its dynamical behaviors are analyzed by bifurcation diagram, Lyapunov exponent and spectral entropy (SE) complexity. The stability analysis is conducted and the conditions for the fractional-order system to maintain chaotic or periodic state are investigated. Compared with the integer-order counterpart, the fractional-order system generates more periodic parameter areas, and they play vital roles in economic cycles and economic chaos control. We also found that the fractional-order oscillator has a larger Lyapunov exponent than its integer-order counterpart. By applying the 0–1 test method, the minimum order for the system for chaotic oscillation is determined. The SE complexity evidence further confirms involving fractional calculus that enriches dynamical behaviors. These results indicate the promising applications in chaos control of the economic system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Springer Nature became a formidable market leader in academic publishing after a 2015 merger. In 2018, Springer Nature made an initial public offering (IPO) attempt to reduce company debt and fortify company value. Three media sources (Reuters, Bloomberg and Nasdaq) indicated that there was a second IPO attempt in 2020, but neither of those IPO attempts reached fruition. This paper summarizes the main events surrounding those IPOs and offers some possible discussion points about them, including economic and market fluctuations. This case also highlights the highly competitive nature of the commercial publishing landscape in a non‐profit academic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and real GDP growth in Brazil, using both aggregate and state-level data. The focus is on distinguishing longer-run trends in this relationship from short-run cyclical fluctuations, and on documenting changes in these relationships over time. We use two different filtering techniques for separating trend and cycle, namely the commonly-used Hodrick-Prescott filter and the newer filter proposed by Hamilton (2018). We find that the long-run or trend elasticity for Brazil is about 0.8, higher than than in the average for advanced countries but below that of other major emerging markets. This elasticity is somewhat higher for consumption-based emissions than for production-based emissions. The direction of these results is not entirely consistent with the pollution haven hypothesis but the quantitative difference between the two elasticities is not large (or statistically different from one another). Consequently, our findings suggest that shifts in the allocation of global production across countries are not a major driver of shifts in the pattern of emissions growth in Brazil. Additional evidence comes from state-level data analysis where one can observe a great deal of heterogeneity, but also some hope as far as decoupling is concerned. Our analysis for 27 states does not reveal any underlying inverted U-shape relationship between the intensity of emissions-GDP relationship and the level of per capita GDP. That is, at the state level, we do not observe that Kuznets elasticity initially increases with provincial per capita real GDP but then declines. In addition to the trend relationship between emissions and output, we find that there does not seem to exist a short-run or cyclical relationship holding in Brazil at the aggregate level (despite having become more procyclical over time), but it does exist in a few individual states. Finally, we further find evidence of asymmetry in the cyclical relationship: the elasticity is higher in booms than during busts, and thus Brazil's emissions go up more when GDP is above trend than they decrease when GDP is below trend. However, this result seems to be mainly driven by a few states. The transition to a low-carbon economy will thus require continued progress not only in bringing down trend emissions, but also in taming the increase in emissions that occurs during the boom phase of the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the implications of idea production and knowledge capital for monetary business cycles. We construct a sticky‐wage model where workers produce goods based on firm‐specific knowledge capital and researchers develop new ideas aided by economywide knowledge. As a quantitatively small group in the economy, researchers are inconsequential for the real effects of monetary shocks when the returns to research are low. However, when the returns to research are high, the result can be overturned. Monetary shocks can have significant real effects, even if wages are perfectly flexible for workers, who are quantitatively dominant in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an inventory problem where the inventory cycle must be an integer multiple of a known basic period is considered. Furthermore, the demand rate in each basic period is a power time-dependent function. Shortages are allowed but, taking necessities or interests of the customers into account, only a fixed proportion of the demand during the stock-out period is satisfied with the arrival of the next replenishment. The costs related to the management of the inventory system are the ordering cost, the purchasing cost, the holding cost, the backordering cost and the lost sale cost. The problem is to determine the best inventory policy that maximizes the profit per unit time, which is the difference between the income obtained from the sales of the product and the sum of the previous costs. The modeling of the inventory problem leads to an integer nonlinear mathematical programming problem. To solve this problem, a new and efficient algorithm to calculate the optimal inventory cycle and the economic order quantity is proposed. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate how the algorithm works to determine the best inventory policies. A sensitivity analysis of the optimal policy with respect to some parameters of the inventory system is developed. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for future research lines are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emission of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels is the main environmental impact of energy resources. Moving toward the use of renewable energy resources is the only solution to tackle these problems. In this paper, a configuration of the hybrid biomass and geothermal energy resource is examined for cooling and electricity generation. In this study, water as a geothermal working fluid is heated up due to combustion of syngas produced in a digester and produce power in a steam turbine. So, the remaining heat of this geofluid runs an absorption chiller for cooling production. The results reveal that the energy and exergy efficiencies of this proposed cycle are 30.8% and 15.5%, respectively. Moreover, the economic analysis of this cycle concludes that the payback period is 2.8 years and the simple payback period for this configuration is 2.6 years. Moreover, the highest exergy destruction rate of 52.4% belongs to the absorption refrigeration cycle. Whereas the lowest exergy destruction of the steam line is the lowest value of 17.4%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Off‐grid renewable energy systems are a solution for power generation in areas where access to the grid is not possible or cost‐effective; in particular, low population rural areas located far away from grid lines or in rugged terrains. Furthermore, over‐reliance on fossil fuels for supplying global energy demand has led to the depletion of nonrenewable resources and environmental issues. This paper presents a feasibility assessment of an off‐grid hybrid renewable energy system for a remote rural area in Kohgiluye and Boyer‐Ahmad Province in Iran. Regarding the available energy resources in the region, a photovoltaic (PV)‐biomass energy system is considered. HOMER Pro software is utilized to find the optimized sizing of the PV‐biomass system to fulfill this load demand. The objective function in this optimization is the system's total net present cost. Due to the rapid fluctuation of economic factors in the country, several rates of inflation and discount rate are considered to investigate their influence on the costs of the system. The optimization result for the current inflation rate of 40% and the discount rate of 18% in the country proposes a hybrid energy system consisting of a 3 kW biogas‐fueled generator, 4.74 kW PV, 10 kWh battery, and 2.07 kW converter to meet the 2.64 kW peak load and 14.53 kWh/day consumption of the community. The total net present cost and cost of energy are $93,057 and 0.0933 $/kWh, respectively. Finally, the environmental assessment of the proposed hybrid system shows an annual CO2 emission of 2.95 kg, which means 99.9% CO2 emissions mitigation compared to a conventional coal‐based electrical plant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores China's endogeneity of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Previous studies have disagreed on the causal relationship between uncertainty and the business cycle. By using shock-based restrictions, we identify structural shocks and investigate the endogeneity of China's EPU index. The findings suggest that an increase in EPUs is more likely to cause fluctuations in the Chinese economy than the reverse. The paper also uncovers spillovers of China's EPU on the US EPU, indicating a national strategy at play. In the long run, EPU shocks in China account for at least 22% of China's economic activity variation and 30% of the US EPU variation. These findings remain consistent when accounting for the COVID-19 period, adopting heteroskedasticity identification schemes, and using alternative EPU indexes. • Comprehending the endogeneity of EPU is essential for economic theory and policy. • China's EPU is closely linked to economic fluctuations and the US EPU. • We employ shock-based restrictions to analyze the endogeneity of China's EPU. • EPU shocks in China are a driver of economic fluctuations and US EPU. • Our results remain consistent under an alternative identification strategy and EPU index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manufacturing organisations must compete with each other while adapting to the ever-changing conditions by building and strengthening their chains of competencies to survive. Therefore, companies are challenged to reform and reconstruct their product, process, and system models as well as to define new goals conforming to evolving complex and dynamic environments. Recent advancements in technologies such as modelling and simulation (M&S), digital twin (DT) and virtual reality (VR) promise new ways for remodelling organisations' resources, processes, and architectures. Moreover, comprehensive concepts like DT-based virtual factory (VF) exploit the potential for utilising such technological concepts in the application domain by enabling the integration of various tools, methods, and processes. There are a variety of empirical studies focusing either on the distinct use of technologies, methods and processes or very generic concepts and approaches. However, studies focusing on both conceptual and practical aspects for such comprehensive and integrated solutions to handle co-evolution in the complex manufacturing domain are limited for defining, designing and utilising novel technologies. In this paper, therefore, we attempt to close this gap by (1) framing and discussing the conceptual and theoretical foundations of DT-based VF, (2) introducing and discussing the extension of the DT-based VF to virtual enterprise and (3) generalising and interpreting the prescriptive knowledge discovered during the previous VF demonstrations performed at Vestas Wind Systems A/S. Systems and complexity theories, concepts of business cycles and competence-based strategic management are discussed to frame descriptive knowledge as a language for depicting the internal and external nature of complex manufacturing enterprise operations. Furthermore, design principles of the DT-based VF concept are examined based on framed concepts and theories as well as its potential implications and deviations into different application contexts to provide managerial guidelines for utilising such a concept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]