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The subtropical forests in China play a pivotal part in the global and regional carbon–water cycle and in regulating the climate. Ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE) is a crucial index for understanding the trade-off between ecosystem carbon gain and water consumption. However, the underlying mechanisms of the WUE in forest ecosystems, especially the different subtropical forests, have remained unclear. In this paper, we developed a simple framework for estimating forest WUE and revealing the underlying mechanisms of forest WUE changes via a series of numerical experiments. Validated by measured WUE, the simulated WUE from our developed WUE framework showed a good performance. In addition, we found that the subtropical forest WUE experienced a significant increasing trend during 2001–2018, especially in evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests where the increasing rate was greatest (0.027 gC kg−1 H2O year−1, p < 0.001). Further analysis indicated that the atmospheric CO2 concentration and vapor pressure deficits (VPD), rather than leaf area index (LAI), were the dominant drivers leading to the subtropical forest WUE changes. When summed for the whole subtropical forests, CO2 and VPD had an almost equal spatial impact on annual WUE change trends and accounted for 45.3% and 49.1% of the whole study area, respectively. This suggests that future forest management aiming to increase forest carbon uptake and protect water resources needs to pay more attention to the long-term impacts of climate change on forest WUE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of "double carbon", ecological water has become one of the significant resources to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the regional ecological environment. And the ecological water consumption prediction is a prerequisite for optimizing water supply structures. Considering the impact of CO 2 emissions on ecological water consumption, the FGM(1,1) model was firstly used to predict CO 2 emissions considered as an impact factor in this paper. Then, an adjacent accumulative grey multivariate convolution model (AGMC(1,N)) was combined with the Average Weakening Buffer Operator (AWBO) to predict the annual ecological water consumption of 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China. The results show that the AGMC(1,N) model combined with the AWBO has better prediction effect. In addition, in the next decade, only six provinces in the northern region will have a decreasing trend in ecological water consumption. However, the other provinces are showing an upward trend. The ecological water consumption trends deviate from the CO 2 emission trends in 12 provinces. The research results are beneficial for the formulation of the ecological water consumption policies and the achievement of the dual carbon goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing conflict between water availability and demand on a global scale, regulating water user behavior from the bottom-up perspective has gained attention from both water managers and researchers. This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the farmer behavior under changing physical and institutional environments in a case study of Miyun Reservoir watershed, China. The ABM model simulates the complex adaptive systems of agricultural water users under an agricultural water-saving compensation policy. The model we developed in this study characterizes agents' sensitivity, learning capability, and information radius, which impacts agricultural income and water consumption of a household. By applying this model to a local 'paddy to dryland' subsidy policy program aiming at reshaping the agricultural water-saving behavior, the results show that this policy program reduces agricultural water consumption while also reducing household agricultural income. The policy depends on administrative intervention and financial subsidies at first to ensure compliance and gradually shape household behavior in the long run. And we also propose a suitable subsidy range of 250–350 yuan for this policy program in the long run. The model we built can help to understand agricultural water use adaptation to both anthropogenic and environmental interventions. This research also contributes to the coupled natural and human systems study with the bottom-up agent-based model, and the empirical case study provides solid policy implications for the agricultural water use allocation and adaptative management at the watershed scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]