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Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has posed a serious threat to the lives and health of the majority of people worldwide. Since the early days of the outbreak, South Korea's government and citizens have made persistent efforts to provide effective prevention against further spread of the disease. In particular, the participation of individual citizens in complying with the necessary code of conduct to prevent spread of the infection, through measures such as social distancing and mask wearing, is as instrumental as the geographical tracking of the trajectory of the infected. In this paper, we propose an activity recognition method based on a wristband equipped with an IR array and inertial measurement unit (IMU) to detect individual compliance with codes of personal hygiene management, such as mask wearing, which are recommended to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. The results of activity recognition were comparatively analyzed by applying conventional machine learning algorithms and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to the IMU time series and IR array thermal images collected from 25 subjects. When CNN and 24 × 32 thermal images were used, 97.8% accuracy was achieved (best performance), and when 6 × 8 low-resolution thermal images were used, similar performance with 97.1% accuracy was obtained. In the case of using IMU, the performance of activity recognition was lower than that obtained with the IR array, but an accuracy of 93% was achieved even in the case of applying machine learning algorithms, indicating that it is more suitable for wearable devices with low computational capability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Harmonization and quality control of originally heterogenous observational databases. • Large-scale application of machine learning methods in a distributed data network. • Transparent use of open-source software tools and publicly shared analytical code. As a response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, several prediction models in the existing literature were rapidly developed, with the aim of providing evidence-based guidance. However, none of these COVID-19 prediction models have been found to be reliable. Models are commonly assessed to have a risk of bias, often due to insufficient reporting, use of non-representative data, and lack of large-scale external validation. In this paper, we present the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) analytics pipeline for patient-level prediction modeling as a standardized approach for rapid yet reliable development and validation of prediction models. We demonstrate how our analytics pipeline and open-source software tools can be used to answer important prediction questions while limiting potential causes of bias (e.g. , by validating phenotypes, specifying the target population, performing large-scale external validation, and publicly providing all analytical source code). We show step-by-step how to implement the analytics pipeline for the question: 'In patients hospitalized with COVID-19, what is the risk of death 0 to 30 days after hospitalization?'. We develop models using six different machine learning methods in a USA claims database containing over 20,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations and externally validate the models using data containing over 45,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations from South Korea, Spain, and the USA. Our open-source software tools enabled us to efficiently go end-to-end from problem design to reliable Model Development and evaluation. When predicting death in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, AdaBoost, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and decision tree yielded similar or lower internal and external validation discrimination performance compared to L1-regularized logistic regression, whereas the MLP neural network consistently resulted in lower discrimination. L1-regularized logistic regression models were well calibrated. Our results show that following the OHDSI analytics pipeline for patient-level prediction modelling can enable the rapid development towards reliable prediction models. The OHDSI software tools and pipeline are open source and available to researchers from all around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]