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Abstract: Freshwater is the essential resource element to support and ensure human life and regional sustainable development. On the basis of the concept of ecosystem service footprint proposed by Burkhard, in this paper, we introduce a new methodological approach that addresses the sustainability and capability of regional freshwater provision and consumption, which we have coined freshwater ecosystem service footprint model (FESF model). The FESF model enhances the accuracy of water provision and consumption calculations and reveals a spatial-pattern of freshwater ecosystem service footprint at the watershed scale, overcoming the shortcomings of the traditional water footprint model, which was first introduced by Rees and Wackernagel in 1992. The proposed model is tested in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) freshwater supply area in China, where water use restrictions are regularly imposed on the population and economic activities. The results of the physical process and theoretical analysis reveal that FESF model is a reliable and helpful model for researchers to understand the regional freshwater situation. The average FESF is 0.94hectare per capita in BTH, with a maximum of 2.52hectare per capita and a minimum of 0.36hectare per capita. Approximately 16.8% of the considered region, primarily parts of the mid-northern region and the surrounding eastern and southern low-lying regions, is under high freshwater resource pressure. In conclusion, this model can be used by researchers and policymakers for promoting sustainable human–ecology interactions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

[Display omitted] • Accurate assessment of China's ecological environment changes in the past 20 years is important. • We used time-series NDVI data (1998–2018) to evaluate China's ecological environment change. • In one-third of China the ecological environment has improved, and in 10%, the ecological environment has deteriorated. • The Yellow River Basin is an area where the ecological environment has significantly improved. • The main reason for the deterioration in the ecological environment of the eastern coastal areas is urban expansion. The ecological environment is the foundation of human survival and development. China's ecological environment has undergone a historic transition from partial improvement to overall improvement. In this paper, long time series NDVI data (1998–2018) are used to evaluate the ecological environment change and spatiotemporal change that has taken place in China over the last 20 years, at different scales (regional, provincial, county, and grid scales). Combined with typical areas, the causes of ecological environment change are revealed. The results show that in about one-third of China, the ecological environment improved, and in 10%, the ecological environment deteriorated. Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Guizhou, and Guangxi are the provinces in which the improvement of the ecological environment is most pronounced. However, the ecological environments with vegetation as the core in Shanghai and Jiangsu Province have deteriorated significantly. The areas with the fastest improvement in their ecological environment are those with precipitation of 200–600 mm. The Yellow River Basin is an area where the ecological environment has significantly improved. Forestry projects and the development of oasis agriculture effectively promote the improvement of the ecological environment. In the past 20 years, the main reason for the degradation of the ecological environment in eastern coastal areas is urban expansion. China should continue to strengthen its overall layout of forestry projects and improve its ecological environment. When planning its ecological construction, China should fully consider the associated physical and geographical conditions, and adjust measures to local conditions accordingly. China should coordinate the relationship between development and protection and avoid the "pie spread" expansion witnessed in eastern coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a "strange phenomenon", which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional "possible future"-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. • Latest CMIP6 climate models and seven SSP-RCP scenarios are used to analyze the possible changes in droughts over China. • More robust projections will be presented by CMIP6 than CMIP5, due to the better representations in physical processes. • The higher emission signifies shorter drought duration, lower precipitation and PET in mid-21st century over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]