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• Nationwide streamflow projections for Australia informed by CMIP5 and CMIP6. • Vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs project less winter rainfall across Australia. • Lower winter rainfall translates to a significant reduction in annual runoff. • Modelled median projection of runoff shows a 50% reduction in far southwest Australia. • Modelled median projection of runoff shows a 20% reduction in far southeast Australia. Projections of streamflow under future climate are essential for developing adaptation strategies in the water and related sectors. This paper presents nationwide streamflow projections for Australia informed by climate change signals in CMIP6 GCMs and compares the projections with those from CMIP5 GCMs. The modelled future runoff projections driven by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs are relatively similar for far southern Australia. The median projection is a 50% reduction in mean annual runoff in far southwest Australia and 20% reduction in far southeast Australia by 2046–2075 relative to 1976–2015 under the high SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5 global warming scenario. The vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs project less winter rainfall across Australia. As most of the runoff in far southern Australia occurs in winter and spring, the lower winter rainfall translates to a significant reduction in annual runoff. It is therefore prudent to plan and manage for a reduction in future water resources, particularly in the densely populated and important agricultural regions in southeast Australia. There is less agreement between GCMs in the summer rainfall projection, with the CMIP6 GCMs generally projecting a wetter future (or smaller decrease in rainfall) than the CMIP5 GCMs. The modelled median projection for mean annual runoff is a 10% reduction in the south-east coast, 5% reduction in the north-east coast and little change in northern Australia. More GCMs project an increase rather than a decrease in the interannual variability of rainfall, and this would further amplify multi-year hydrological droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) systems have the potential to provide simultaneous heating and cooling, allowing for energy exchange between users with different needs. However, their viability in mild climates with a higher share of cooling demand remains unclear. In this paper, we propose a framework for assessing the engineering, economic and environmental performance of a 5GDHC system compared to a state-of-the-art business-as-usual solution and demonstrate it through a practical case study for a university campus in Melbourne, Australia. When accessible heat sources and sinks are available, the 5GDHC system provides a cost-effective solution, with annual cost savings between 9 and 29 % and GHG emissions reduction between 25 and 58 % compared to an already advanced business-as-usual system. Additionally, by using peak off-peak tariffs and an hourly emission factor for the electricity consumed, we demonstrate the 5GDHC operational flexibility in pursuing different objectives, such as minimising cost or emissions, respectively. The results suggest that 5GDHC systems are an economically and environmentally viable solution in milder climates, and a successful implementation of 5GDHC in Australia can create new market opportunities and pave the way for its adoption in other countries with similar climatic conditions and no established history of district heating systems. • 5GDHC systems are analysed in a new context with a milder climate. • A multi-dimensional assessment framework is proposed. • The framework is demonstrated through a practical case study in Melbourne, Australia. • Flexibility is assessed through varying electricity tariffs and emission factors. • The strong performance of the 5GDHC system offers insights into similar contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australians are one of the world’s highest per capita emitters of greenhouse gases, yet the country’s target for emissions reductions by 2030 remains modest. This paper looks at policy options for Australian cities to deliver faster emissions reductions than the national commitment level. The main focus is on an accelerated reduction in emissions from urban road transport, through technological improvements and behaviour changes. Targets are proposed for improved emissions intensities, to bring Australia much closer to US and EU performance expectations. A range of behaviour change measures is then tested on Melbourne and Sydney, the Sydney analysis using MetroScan-TI, an integrated evaluation framework, to explore how behaviour changes might enhance emissions outcomes. The potential contribution of public transport is a particular focus. The paper concludes that, with sufficient political will, Australia could reduce its 2030 road transport emissions to 40% below 2005 levels. This is a much larger reduction than the current 26–28% Australian target but is more consistent with longer term pathways to acceptable carbon budgets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal aquifers provide a source of water for more than one billion people, with island freshwater lenses being some of the most vulnerable coastal groundwater systems due to their susceptibility to saltwater intrusion. Basic hydrogeological and hydrochemical knowledge regarding the recharge and salinisation processes of freshwater lenses is important to ensure sustainable utilisation, especially considering possible climate change effects. This paper makes an assessment of the fate of a freshwater lens in a drying climate through a comparison of current and historic hydrochemical data, which to the author’s knowledge is unique to this study. Fresh groundwater stable isotope signatures (δ 18 O, δ 2 H) reflect local amount weighted rainfall signatures (δ 18 O: −3.8‰; δ 2 H: −15.1‰), and confirm rainfall as the origin of fresh groundwater (δ 18 O: −4.47 to −3.82‰; δ 2 H: −20.0 to −16.6‰). Mixing with seawater was identified through enriched groundwater δ 18 O and δ 2 H signatures (maximum values of −0.36‰ and −1.4‰ respectively) compared to local rainfall and higher salinity (maximum 29,267 mg/L Total Dissolved Solids (TDS)) in a number of monitoring wells around the freshwater lens. Enhanced seawater intrusion detected in the northern section of the lens area was identified through significantly increased TDS values over the last 20–40 years, with increases of up to 3000% observed between 1990 and 2014. A reduction in the extent of freshwater by approximately 1 km 2 was identified since 1977, which was found to be primarily caused by a reduction in recharge to the freshwater lens due to a ∼20% decline in winter rainfall in the south-west Western Australian region since the mid 1960s. Groundwater abstraction was found to equate to between 5% and 9% of the estimated recharge for the island, and is not a significant factor in the reduction of the lens extent compared to the observed decline in rainfall recharge. Interestingly, seawater intrusion into the fresh water lens was found to occur by older seawater (0.03–0.09 TU) in regions of the lens that were previously fresh or slightly brackish, while one sample (0.67 TU) suggests either modern seawater intrusion or mixing of older saline groundwaters (>60 years) with rainfall recharge. The use of tritium dating in this island aquifer was essential in identifying ‘older’ seawater that was previously unidentified until now. The isotopic and hydrochemical tools used in this paper quantify the effects of groundwater abstraction and climate variability on the freshwater lens and have implications for the sustainable management of the groundwater resource on Rottnest Island, and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since its first use in the late 80's, the term chevron has been employed in numerous studies to describe large U- and V-shaped ridges found in or near shorelines worldwide. Most studies have so far focused on Bahamian chevrons that are exclusively of Late Pleistocene age, and on the supposed Holocene chevrons found in S-Madagascar and Australia. In the Bahamas, these deposits have been interpreted as the product of extreme storms at the end of the last interglacial (LIG) warm period. In contrast, the extensive chevrons complex exposed in S-Madagascar and on the western coast of Australia have been associated with a tsunami induced by a meteorite impact. Finally, several authors have also proposed a non-catastrophic (i.e. eolian) origin based on the recognized importance of wind-related processes in these coastal areas, and term such deposits parabolic dunes. In this paper, we collect and synthesize existing data on the morphology, sedimentology and age of these chevrons, and review the different interpretations proposed in the literature with the aim to lay out a consistent database to assist further investigations on these important coastal morphologies. In addition, we generated a synthesis of wind data at the three study areas, which highlights the relationship between present wind regimes and chevrons morphologies. The ubiquity of chevrons (likely actually parabolic dunes) in coastal areas around the globe and their relationship with coastal processes makes them crucial archives for reconstructing past wind regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes a risk analysis of the economic impact of damage to metal roofing of a typical contemporary (new) Australian house subject to extreme wind loading. The failure modes considered are roof cladding and batten-to-truss connection failures, with the effect of defective construction also considered. Monte-Carlo simulation and structural reliability methods are used to stochastically model spatially varying pressure coefficients, roof component failure, and load re-distribution across the roof. This spatial reliability analysis enables fragility curves to be developed that relate likelihood and extent of roof cover loss to gust wind speed. The annual economic risk is up to 0.3% of house replacement value. A typical house with construction defects increases economic risk more than sixfold when compared to the defect-free house. There is a 10% chance that a changing climate will increase expected losses for houses in Brisbane and Melbourne by 6–18% over the next 50 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key criterion of successful adaptation to climate change is that it avoids potential inequalities arising from climate impacts or from adaptation strategies themselves. Recent research on adaptation in developing and developed countries argues that the measures of such fairness cannot be captured by standard metrics of vulnerability and should be situated in the milieu of people’s daily lives and temporalities. Yet there is little empirical evidence to support this theoretical argument. This paper describes a method, and presents findings from research that aimed to understand and classify the lived values of four marginal rural communities at risk of sea-level rise in Australia to inform adaptation planning and implementation. Our research finds that there are at least five types of primary residents and second home-owners attached to these four low-lying coastal communities. Some of these residents are more likely to be amenable to relocation if their needs for affordable living and belonging are met. For others, there may be little that can be done to compensate for the loss of place attachment, and implementing a measured approach that provides them time to adapt to the idea of change and form connections to new places is the best that could be achieved. We discuss the implications of place-specific and people-centric values for achieving fair adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climatic change is driving research and development in low emissions technologies. One such technology is the use of charcoal from biomass in steelmaking. This paper adapts social life cycle assessment methodologies to analyse the social dimensions of energy supply alternatives in steelmaking using regionalised production scenarios in Australia. Three energy supply alternatives are investigated: charcoal produced from Radiata pine plantation forestry; charcoal produced from Mallee eucalypt revegetation on agricultural land; and metallurgical coal. Impact indicators analysed include land-use, employment, workplace health & safety and a qualitative analysis of identified stakeholder issues. The research finds that biomass alternatives are significant generators of direct employment at the regional level; have concomitantly higher rates of workplace injuries and represent a significant change in land-use. Charcoal produced from Mallee biomass planted as a conservation measure on farmland, however, has the benefit of representing a shared land-use that provides an additional farm revenue stream and assists dryland salinity management. The paper finds that full substitution of coal by pine or Mallee charcoal does not provide a unique solution for optimising the social performance of the energy supply alternatives across all indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Monsoonal North West (MNW) region of Australia faces a number of challenges adapting to anthropogenic climate change. These have the potential to impact on a range of industries, including agricultural, pastoral, mining and tourism. However future changes to rainfall regimes remain uncertain due to the inability of Global Climate Models to adequately capture the tropical weather/climate processes that are known to be important for this region. Compounding this is the brevity of the instrumental rainfall record for the MNW, which is unlikely to represent the full range of climatic variability. One avenue for addressing this issue (the focus of this paper) is to identify sources of paleoclimate information that can be used to reconstruct a plausible pre-instrumental rainfall history for the MNW. Adopting this approach we find that, even in the absence of local sources of paleoclimate data at a suitable temporal resolution, remote paleoclimate records can resolve 25% of the annual variability observed in the instrumental rainfall record. Importantly, the 507-year rainfall reconstruction developed using the remote proxies displays longer and more intense wet and dry periods than observed during the most recent ~ 100 years. For example, the maximum number of consecutive years of below (above) average rainfall is 90% (40%) higher in the rainfall reconstruction than during the instrumental period. Further, implications for flood and drought risk are studied via a simple GR1A rainfall runoff model, which again highlights the likelihood of extremes greater than that observed in the limited instrumental record, consistent with previous paleoclimate studies elsewhere in Australia. Importantly, this research can assist in informing climate related risks to infrastructure, agriculture and mining, and the method can readily be applied to other regions in the MNW and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Quantile-quantile rainfall mapping methods are extended to improve streamflow simulations. • Extensions correct rainfall bias at multiple time scales and model rainfall autocorrelation. • Methods reduce bias in rainfall sequencing metrics for downscaled GCM simulations. • Methods reduce bias in streamflow simulations forced by downscaled GCM simulations. Global circulation models (GCMs) provide important insights into future climate change. Bias-correction of downscaled GCM output is integral to any hydrological investigations of climate change due to discrepancies between the statistics of downscaled GCM simulations and observations. Many bias-correction techniques have been developed to support hydrological applications. However, there have been few comparisons of the sensitivity of hydrological simulations to different bias-correction assumptions. This paper investigates the importance of two common assumptions: (i) simultaneously correcting bias at multiple time scales, and (ii) explicitly handling rainfall autocorrelation; in quantile mapping of downscaled GCM rainfall data for hydrological simulation. Four quantile mapping methods are applied to correct bias in dynamically downscaled reanalysis and historical GCM simulations of rainfall for 11 catchments in south-eastern Australia and the performance of bias-corrected rainfall and streamflow simulations is evaluated. All quantile mapping methods investigated can effectively eliminate bias in monthly and annual rainfall totals. Quantile mapping methods that consider differences in the temporal dependence (autocorrelation) structure of downscaled GCM and observed rainfall are most effective in reducing bias in rainfall sequencing statistics, such as probability of consecutive wet or dry days. Streamflow simulations of mean and high streamflow percentiles are underestimated when generated using rainfall that is corrected using quantile mapping methods that do not consider differences in the temporal dependence structure of downscaled GCM and observed rainfall. Future hydrological investigations of climate change should therefore adopt methods that explicitly consider the temporal dependence structures of downscaled GCM and observed rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We modify a method to assess yield of carryover reservoir with environmental flow. • The method can be applied at large scales, under historic and future climates. • We quantify yield declines due to climate change and environmental flow provision. Protecting freshwater systems to ensure sustainability requires diagnosing threats over a broad range of scales, from local to global. There is growing acceptance that environmental flows must be protected to sustain river channels and floodplain ecosystems downstream of reservoirs. Meeting environmental water requirements has proven difficult because they reduce water yield available for human use – a particular challenge in regions already experiencing declining water availability with climate change. A further challenge is the difficulty of assessing the impact of environmental water requirements on water availability for other purposes. This paper provides a modification of the Gould-Dincer method to assess the yield of carry-over reservoirs subject to environmental water requirements. The method characterizes reservoir inflows using readily available flow characteristics (annual mean and C v). We develop and test the method using ten examples with well-understood environmental water requirements and a range of annual flow C v s. We then demonstrate this method at continental scale, to investigate the impact on yield of providing high-reliability supply including environmental water requirements, under a changing climate. According to our results, considering climate change and environmental flow provision simultaneously, the decline in water yield is projected to be about 27% and 18% respectively for Australia and US (based on hypothetical reservoirs capacity of one times mean annual inflow). Adapting environmental flow demands to future hydrological conditions results in a 2% and 3% increase in Australia and US-wide yield for human use respectively. While further testing is needed, the method provides a simple and rapid way to estimate the impact of providing environmental flow on yield, applicable at global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Economic analysis of climate scenarios and alternative water policies is critical for development and implementation of appropriate water policies and programs. Mathematical models have been developed to assess water resources policies due to their ability to explicitly represent the biophysical dynamics of natural systems while integrating these within social and economic constraints. These models have been criticised, however, due to the problems of simplification, overspecialisation, plausibility and lack of empirical validation. This paper introduces a mathematical programming model which uses positive mathematical programming method to calibrate and model agriculture and water use in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. This paper reviews the theoretical and technical details of the model development including the key steps taken in collating and scaling the biophysical and economic data, and to address model parameterisation issues. The paper summarises results of an application of the model for assessing climate change impacts in the form of reduced rainfall and water allocations and increased crop water use for agricultural production. The results show the degree of variability in gross values under different climate scenarios compared to the base case scenario, especially in very dry years. The results also show how on-farm adaptation options and water markets can mitigate these losses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Building adaptive reuse plays a critical role in emissions reduction and supports global climate protection. Thus, the designing of future buildings with embedded adaptive reuse potential is a useful criterion for sustainability. This paper describes the development of a new rating tool known as adaptSTAR, which offers holistic and unified design criteria suitable for assessing the adaptive reuse potential of future buildings. The findings show that criteria can be identified and weighted according to physical, economic, functional, technological, social, legal and political categories to calculate an adaptive reuse star rating. In addition, this paper reports on the first stage of the research methodology used in the initial development of the rating tool and concludes with some preliminary observations from 12 selected successful case studies in New South Wales (NSW) and Melbourne, Australia. The use of adaptSTAR in designing future buildings will lead and help promote low carbon built environments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The last decades have witnessed a rapid development of green building developments at a global scale, as a measure to deal with various challenges related to climate change especially environmental issues. Australia is no exception. It is not unusual that extra resources such as cost are required for developing green buildings compared to conventional buildings. To justify extra upfront resources required for green building developments, a variety of tools have been developed such as life cycle assessment and life cycle costing. These two tools have been used in some projects in order to evaluate the cost and benefits of green buildings from a life cycle perspective. However, the uptake of life cycle assessment and life cycle costing are generally slow in the construction industry. This paper presents a critical review of green building evaluation from life cycle perspective. In particular, the use of life cycle assessment and life cycle costing in green building evaluation in Australia is reviewed. Knowledge gap is presented and future research agenda is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

“Integrated Urban Water Management plans” consider all water services simultaneously to determine optimal infrastructure solutions. They create many benefits, including unlocking opportunities for water reuse. This paper conducts preliminary assessment of nine IUWM plan case studies from Melbourne. It finds inconsistencies between plans in relation to environmental and liveability objectives, and option identification methods, and also that many IUWM options perform worse than conventional water supplies in regards to energy. The most consequential finding is that the plans do not include scenario planning and therefore fail to consider infrastructure performance regarding resilience to future uncertainties around population and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper explores how disclosure is used by key bodies in the Australian mining industry as a means to respond to climate change and ensure their social licence to operate. The study utilises a legitimacy theory framework and a multi-case analysis to examine the environmental disclosure practices via a variety of media of two companies and two industry bodies within Australia''s mining industry. It is revealed that a combination of legitimising strategies is undertaken by key bodies in the Australian mining industry, however to differing degrees depending on the organisation. There is also support for the notion that different media plays a critical role in facilitating the legitimacy seeking behaviours of the companies and industry bodies. This study extends existing literature on legitimacy theory by highlighting the value of utilising this perspective to explore contemporary phenomena such as corporate responses to climate change. The findings of this study have practical significance as they are expected to have important policy ramifications. One of the differentiating features of this paper, compared to prior studies utilising a legitimacy theory framework, is the examination of legitimising disclosure strategies at an industry level, which complements a company level analysis. Moreover, variations in legitimising disclosure strategies and communication media employed may be due to their focus on differing conferring publics and stakeholder groups. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Since the global warming and climate change are recognized as real concerns, attention of power system planners and operators, energy policy makers and regulators as well as developers around the world including Australia is focused on using alternative and low emission energy technologies for electric power production. Renewable energy and energy efficient technologies have many advantages including reducing climate change, increasing sustainability in power sector, and increasing security of power supply. This paper presents an overview on both current electricity grid and future grid. Experts believe that in future more distributed generation (DG) will be integrated into the low to medium electricity grid. This paper will also review the key drivers in relation to integration of increased DG technologies in general and the renewable energy-distributed generation (RE-DG) technologies in particular, into the electric power system and the opportunities and challenges linked to these technologies. This paper also reviews possible connection location of RE-DG into the grid and its impact on system voltage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Increasing global temperatures as a result of climate change are widely considered inevitable for Australia. Despite this, the specific effects of climate change on Australian agriculture are little studied and the effects on agricultural pests and diseases are virtually unknown. In this paper we consider the impact of climate change on the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama [Hemiptera: Psyllidae]); one of two known vectors of huanglongbing (citrus greening); a debilitating disease which is caused in Asia by a phloem-limited bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (α-Proteobacteria). D. citri does not occur in Australia, but if introduced would pose a major threat to the viability of the Australian citrus industry and to native Citrus species. This paper presents an approach developed to understand how climate change may influence the behaviour, distribution and breeding potential of D. citri. Here we developed and describe an initial dynamic point model of D. citri biology in relation to its citrus host and applied it to a scenario of increasing temperatures, as indicators of climate change, on a continental scale. A comparison between model outputs for the three time frames considered (1990, 2030 and 2070) confirms that increasing temperatures projected under climate change will affect the timing and duration of new citrus growth (flush) necessary for psyllid development throughout Australia. Flushing will start progressively earlier as the temperature increases and be of shorter duration. There will also be a gradual southward expansion of shorter durations of the occurrence of flush. Increasing temperatures will impact on D. citri both directly through alteration of its temperature dependant development cycle and indirectly through the impact on the host flushing cycle. For the whole of Australia, a comparison between model outputs for the three scenarios considered indicates the seasonality of D. citri development will change to match changes in citrus flush initiation. Results indicate that the risk of establishment by D. citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures, mainly due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes of the host. However, the spatially heterogeneous results also suggest that regions located on the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures. These results confirm the value of a linked host-pest approach as based on D. citri climatic requirements alone the model would have accounted only for shorter development periods and predicted an increased risk of potential distribution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A rapidly warming planet provides a significant challenge to the design, delivery, and maintenance of habitable housing across Australia. Information on the adequacy of current measures for cooling Indigenous houses in regional and remote communities in relation to climate change and rising energy consumption costs is lacking. Such information is needed to better protect low socio-economic status householders, people with pre-existing health conditions, and people living in climatically exposed regions. This article models the thermal performance of both existing and 'improved' (built to current national construction code standards) housing stock in relation to various occupancy density, cooling system, and ventilation practice scenarios. This modelling was undertaken for housing in Australia's tropical, arid, and hot/mild climate zones, matching the sites where most discrete Indigenous communities are located. Results show that retrofitting existing housing stock and even building new stock to meet recommended standards are not adequate measures for current or future climate changes. This paper challenges current knowledge, policy, and practices regarding Indigenous housing, demonstrating that significant reform is necessary to maintain habitable conditions and improve energy resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 369 recovered a stratigraphically complete, Santonian-aged, pelagic sedimentary sequence at Site U1513 on the Naturaliste Plateau (33°47.6084′S, 112°29.1338′E) at ~2800 m water depth. The site was located at ~60°S paleolatitude in Cretaceous times. A total of 59 samples studied from Holes 1513A and 1513B yielded 140 calcareous and nine agglutinated benthic foraminiferal taxa. Gavelinellids (Notoplanulina, Gavelinella, Anomalinoides) and Gyroidinoides spp., are the most abundant taxa overall and also dominate most samples. We also report 382 foraminiferal stable isotopic measurements and infer cooling [of ~5 °C in surface waters and 2 °C at the seafloor] based on changes in δ18O values for benthic and planktonic taxa through the Santonian at Site U1513. Inferred cooling was accompanied by changes in planktonic and benthic foraminiferal assemblages. At Site U1513, benthic foraminiferal taxonomic richness declines by 15 species (from 20– 25 to 5–10 taxa) towards the upper Santonian. Within this interval, epifaunal, oxic foraminifera diminish in absolute and relative abundance, and there is a parallel relative increase in opportunistic taxa and infaunal foraminifera. Changes in benthic foraminiferal communities indicate a shift from oligotrophic to eutrophic conditions in the bottom water despite the general cooling trend. This paper explores the causes and effects of the paleoenvironmental changes in the bottom waters. • surface and bottom waters were differently affected by the Santonian cooling. • Ecologic groups within benthic and planktonic foraminifera show different reactions to pronounced cooling. • surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera record cooling by ~5 °C. • the seafloor cooled by ~2.5 °C during the onset of the Late Cretaceous cooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a meta-analysis of 689 luminescence age estimates of Australian desert sand dunes. This analysis had two aims: to examine the hypothesis that Quaternary climate changes have forced dune accumulation, and to understand longitudinal dune behaviour from the age-architecture of sand dunes for which stratigraphic information is often absent or poorly known. A novel approach to the analysis of probability density curves of dune age frequency shows that in the Mallee dunefield of southeastern Australia only the period leading up to and including the last glacial maximum (LGM) (18–34 ka) experienced marked dune growth which cannot be explained by random stochastic activity. During the LGM, most, but not all, Mallee longitudinal dunes were accumulating more rapidly than before and after. In the Strzelecki dunefield source-bordering (SBD) longitudinal dune TL ( n = 61) and OSL ( n = 40) ages are more frequent at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition but nearby non-SBD longitudinal dunes ( n = 21 ages) were only active above background levels during the LGM. However, the Strzelecki dune age data set suffers from being drawn from a small number of individual dunes (10 SBD dated using TL; 12 SBD dated by OSL; 7 non-SBD dated by OSL) with a marked bias away from surficial (young) and basal (old) depths. Even during the LGM, many dunes do not record active growth and the dunefield was most likely a mosaic of stable dune surfaces and bare mobile patches, supported by the scant pollen data from the arid zone. Hyper-aridity has not been experienced in these dunefields. These vegetated dunes exhibit conservative behaviour with limited response to the range of climate forcing experienced in the late Pleistocene. A more complete understanding of dunefield response to Quaternary climates would require an intensive and structured dating program to overcome the ‘noise’ from stochastic processes leading to small-scale activity in these dunes and the simultaneous removal of parts of the sedimentary record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and vegetation health can only be undertaken over large areas and on a regular basis using ecological indicators derived from satellite-based sensors. Climate conditions in Mediterranean ecosystems have undergone, and are projected to undergo, significant change in the future with marked impacts on forest and shrubland vegetation. In the southwest of Australia (SWAU), endemic tree species have experienced significant declines in health and mortality since the early 1990s primarily due to these climatic changes. In this paper we examine trends in Net Primary Production (NPP) from 2000 to 2011 as an indicator of productivity and health condition of the woody vegetation across the SWAU region. To do so, we examine NPP estimates derived from satellite imagery and climate data to answer the questions: (1) what is the extent and rate of change in NPP for the SWAU region over the study period, and (2) how important is fire as a contributing factor in the observed trends? Our results suggest that, similar to the global trend in Mediterranean ecosystems, between 2000 and 2011, overall NPP declined across the study region, with the majority of declines occurring in the ecological transition zone between trees and shrubs. Twenty-six percent of the 37,042 square kilometre of woody vegetation that showed a declining NPP trend, was affected by fire. The overall rate of NPP decline for the region was estimated to be −0.38 megaton C per year since 2000, indicating a reduction in the capacity of the region to act as a carbon sink. Under climate change projections, the observed decline trends are likely to continue and our results suggest that the carbon storage potential in this region is gradually decreasing following an ecological shift from tall tree-dominated to lower shrub-dominated vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Wildfires are becoming more severe and frequent and their effects increasingly expose water resources to stress. • Climate, wildfire, streamflow records (1975 to 2018), topography, and landcover data from 92 catchments were combined to quantify the contribution of wildfire to streamflow variability across Australian temperate forests. • On average wildfire regimes relatively results in 8.8% increases in streamflow across Australian temperate forests. • Wildfire effects on regional streamflow varied spatially depending on hydroclimate factors, particularly precipitation. As wildfires become more frequent and severe, there are concerns regarding their impacts on water yield from forested catchments. While there are many studies in Australia about the effects of individual wildfires on streamflow at fine scales (<1 km2) in specific geographic settings, the effects of wildfire regimes on streamflow at broad spatial scales across temperate forests in Australia are not well understood. In this paper, we combined climate, wildfire, streamflow records (1975 to 2018), topographic, and landcover data from 92 catchments (74 – 4740 km2) in the Australian temperate zone to quantify the contribution of wildfire regimes over time to streamflow variability in different hydroclimatic settings (humid, dry sub-humid, and semi-arid) and geographic regions (Southeast Australia (SEA), Southwest Western Australia (SWWA), and Tasmania (TAS)). Wildfire regimes were represented by two metrics: the burnt area to drainage area (BDA) ratio for wildfire events in each year and a spatially averaged metric of Time Since Fire (TSF), which is a spatial average of time since the last wildfire in the catchment. By comparing prefire and postfire runoff ratios our study found that on average there was a short-term increase in runoff ratio (∼3% in year 1 and ∼6% in year 2 post-fire) after wildfires with BDA > 25%. No influence of fire was found in the long-term (15–20 years after the wildfire) runoff ratio. We found that wildfire regime, measured by TSF, explained ∼8.8% of the variation in annual streamflow across the Australian temperate zone, and that with decreasing TSF (i.e., increased wildfire impact), the average streamflow increased. Streamflow variation explained by wildfire regimes varied with hydroclimate. The explained variance of streamflow by wildfire regimes in semi-arid catchments (23%) and dry sub-humid catchments (13%) were higher than humid catchments (5%). Our results provide a broad-scale understanding of how wildfire regimes influence streamflow variability at broad temporal and spatial scales, and provided important context and baseline information for determining the implications of changes in climate and fire regimes for regional water availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia’s agriculture industry, particularly in the north, is characterised by supply chains of long travel distances, often in excess of 2500 km and costing up to 35% of farm gate price. Such travel distances increase the vulnerability of the industry to climatic variability and extreme events. Infrastructure investments in roads, bridges, processors and storage, along with changes in policy, have the potential to substantially reduce costs and increase resilience of the agriculture industries. In this paper, we outline the model, TRAnsport Network Strategic Investment Tool (TRANSIT) which is based on ArcGIS, and utilizes the Origin to Destination Cost Matrix solver within the Network Analyst toolkit. TRANSIT estimates the transport costs for all movements between enterprises, accommodating road conditions, vehicle types, vehicle access restrictions and regulatory requirements. TRANSIT was applied to the northern Australia livestock industry, consisting of 12 million cattle across 10,000 enterprises and 89,000 unique trips between these enterprises. Its ability to estimate the transport benefits from road upgrades, new processing facilities and biosecurity changes are shown using three priority case studies identified by industry and government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities must transform in order to address the challenge of climate change and to achieve societal ambitions such as the sustainable development goals. However, a key impediment to achieving transformation is underdeveloped understandings of how key actors and sectors within the built environment work together to achieve goals. This paper addresses these gaps by developing and visually presenting a process map to describe: the key processes involved in producing the built environment across its life stages; key sectors of the built environment, their key actors, and the activities coordinated between them. The process map was peer reviewed by an expert reference group of built environment professionals active in Australia and the UK. The motivation for developing this process map is to facilitate future research to identify and expedite opportunities for coordinated action to address significant societal challenges such as climate change action, and the sustainable development goals – which require transformative action in cities. • Cities must transform to address climate change • We develop a process map to describe the production of the built environment • Process map describes fundamental activities for producing the built environment • Process map spans built environment life stages; identifying activities and interactions of key sectors and actors • Can be applied to inform transformative action targeted at challenges such as climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The south-west of Australia is being affected by a warming, drying trend in its climate. In response to these changing climatic conditions, as well as changes in farm commodity price relativities, farmers have adjusted their mix of enterprises to favour cereal production. As a result, an increasing potential source of cereal straw for bioenergy production has emerged. This paper examines how temporal and spatial costs of cereal straw accumulation may affect the establishment of a bioenergy plant in the region, with climate change impacts being highlighted. Logistics models based on mathematical programming are constructed for a range of plant sizes. Modelling results identify the cost structures of cereal straw accumulation for these plant sizes. Plant sizes are characterised by different cost structures and levels of volatility in their costs of grain accumulation. The profitability of bioenergy production based on cereal straw in this region of Australia is particularly exposed to climate variability, especially for larger plant sizes. The projected change in climate supports a relatively small reduction in the costs of cereal straw accumulation. These findings will affect decision-making over investment in a long-lived specific asset such as a bioenergy processing plant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 0.2 °C per decade for the next two decades in global temperatures and a rise of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C by the year 2100. Related to the increase in world temperatures is the increase in Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) which are primarily made up of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and fluorinated gases. In 2004, the GHGs from agriculture contributed 14% of the overall global GHGs made up mainly of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. In Australia, the dominant source of CH4 and N2O emissions for the year ending June 2012 was found to be from the agricultural sector. With the recent introduction of the Clean Energy Act 2011, the agricultural sector of Australia is expected to develop appropriate GHG mitigation strategies to maintain and improve its competitiveness in the green commodity market. This paper proposes the use of Integrated Spatial Technologies (IST) framework by linking Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The IST approach also integrates and highlights the use of Cleaner Production (CP) strategies for the formulation and application of cost-effective GHG mitigation options for grain production in Western Australia (WA). In this study, the IST framework was tested using data from an existing study (the baseline study) and two mitigation options. The analysis results revealed production and use of fertiliser as the “hotspot”, and for mitigation purposes was replaced with pig manure in option 1, whereas option 2 emphasised crop rotation system/s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Australia has a very sunny climate, with a very high demand for air conditioning. Relying on electricity to drive, buildings' HVAC systems will cause a significant negative impact on the environment. In this paper, recent developments in solar assisted air conditioning technologies are reviewed and presented. The conceptual basis of the technologies including open and closed cycles cooling technologies, capabilities and limitation are discussed. Energy demand, energy consumption by Australian buildings sector and economic and environmental problems associated with the usage of fossil fuel resources are reported. Second the issue of mould growth and indoor thermal comfort and indoor air quality is highlighted. Finally the technology fundamentals and theories involved with solar energy and solar collector's technologies are summarised and discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper we examine the post-politics of climate change in Australia and discuss an important but otherwise little remarked temporality. First, we note the spatial structuring of Rancière's post-political theorization as it informs geographical research on the governance of social and environmental issues. Second, we identify a post-politics in climate change policy developed by the Australian federal government (under Rudd then Gillard) which culminated in 2011 with its carbon pricing proposals and subsequent clean energy plan. Third, referring to the discursive material associated with these developments, we discuss the critical importance of time in the climate change debate, returning us to comment on the problematic temporality of post-politics with a word of caution about any re-emergence here of the political. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper we synthesise existing palaeoenvironmental data from the arid and semi-arid interior of the Australian continent for the period 40–0 ka. Moisture is the predominant variable controlling environmental change in the arid zone. Landscapes in this region respond more noticeably to changes in precipitation than to temperature. Depending on their location, arid zone records broadly respond to tropical monsoon-influenced climate regimes, the temperate latitude westerly systems, or a combination of both. The timing and extent of relatively arid and humid phases vary across the continent, in particular between the westerly wind-controlled temperate latitudes, and the interior and north which are influenced by tropically sourced precipitation. Relatively humid phases in the Murray-Darling Basin on the semi-arid margins, which were characterised by large rivers most likely fed by snow melt, prevailed from 40 ka to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and from the deglacial to the mid Holocene. By contrast, the Lake Eyre basin in central Australia remained relatively dry throughout the last 40 ka, with lake high stands at Lake Frome around 35–30 ka, and parts of the deglacial period and the mid-Holocene. The LGM was characterised by widespread relative aridity and colder conditions, as evidenced by extensive desert dune activity and dust transport, lake level fall, and reduced but episodic fluvial activity. The climate of the deglacial period was spatially divergent. The southern part of the continent experienced a brief humid phase around ∼17–15 ka, followed by increased dune activity around ∼14–10 ka. This contrasts with the post-LGM persistence of arid conditions in the north, associated with a lapsed monsoon and reflected in lake level lows and reduced fluvial activity, followed by intensification of the monsoon and increasingly effective precipitation from ∼14 ka. Palaeoenvironmental change during the Holocene was also spatially variable. The early to mid-Holocene was, however, generally characterised by moderately humid conditions, demonstrated by lake level rise, source-bordering dune activity, and speleothem growth, persisting at different times across the continent. Increasingly arid conditions developed into the late Holocene, particularly in the central arid zone. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As concerns about rising fossil fuel prices, energy security, and climate change increase, renewable energy can play a key role in producing local, clean, and inexhaustible energy to supply Australia’s growing demand for electricity, heat, and transportation fuel. Renewable energy is an essential part of Australia’s low emissions energy mix and this energy is important to its energy security. Australia has some of the best renewable energy resources in the world. This paper will focus on the impact of these renewable energies in Australia. This study shows that Australia has the potential to secure its long term energy future through focus and encouragement on increasing utilisation of renewable energy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Australia is a major food exporting country. Recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture, with a resulting decline in aggregate agricultural production and exports. This paper analyses the possible impact of increased water scarcity on Australian agricultural production and the magnitude of subsequent impacts on global food security. Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on land and water use coupled with a hydro-economic stochastic modelling approach, the impacts of reduced agricultural production in the southern Murray–Darling Basin, and more generally for Australia, are analysed. Changes in agricultural activity, reduction in agricultural exports and altered composition of products exported attributed to the severe 2000–2009 drought are also analysed to highlight the implications for global food security. The impact of climate change on food production is examined. The analysis shows that climate change, when modelled as the extreme case, along with other factors such as land use, will impact Australian food exports. Despite its relatively small contribution to total global food supply, Australia’s contribution to international trade in wheat, meat and dairy products is substantial and could affect global food prices. Furthermore, Australia’s agricultural exports are of disproportionate importance within the South- and South–East Asian and Oceania region, both in terms of volume and for strategic reasons. Adaptation along with investment in agriculture production is needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change due to greenhouse gases emission from fossil fuels has prompted several governments to channel resources in the commercial utilisation of renewable energy sources. Solar energy is one of the renewable energy sources that is highly untapped and underutilized. Australia has the highest average solar radiation per square metre of any continent in the world. This paper will focus on the need to improve solar energy utilisation in Australia, challenges facing it and the future benefits. This study shows successfully storing and transferring solar energy will ensure that this energy source will make a significant contribution to Australia''s electricity grid supply in the future and Australia will be well positioned to assist in meeting its growing clean energy demand. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Yield plays a central role in the processes, practices, management and operation of urban water supply systems. Improved accuracy of the yield estimate is important and can be obtained by improving knowledge of important variables. Yield is typically estimated via computational simulation using the entire sequence of available historic climate data. Sensitivity analysis provides a framework and many techniques that can identify important variables in a computational model. Using the Morris method, this paper investigates the importance of input variables used in the estimation of yield of urban water supply systems. The Barwon urban water supply system in Australia is used as the case study. Using a number of climate scenarios of various lengths, sensitivity analysis showed that the security criteria of the Barwon system was the most important to the yield estimate. The upper restriction rule curve also showed notable importance. Significantly the results showed that the use of a single climate sequence for estimating yield would produce misrepresentative results for another climate scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The effect of future climate scenarios on surface water and groundwater resources has been shown to have a consequent impact on water-dependent ecosystems. A regional-scale analysis of changes in water resources as a result of changing climate was undertaken in south-western Australia; a region with a large number of nationally and internationally recognised water-dependent ecosystems. The paper examines the potential environmental impacts of a substantial reduction in rainfall and an increase in temperature as projected by global climate models (GCMs) on river and groundwater-dependent terrestrial vegetation by 2030. Climate change effects on environmentally significant flow regimes were evaluated by applying the climate projections from 15 GCMs under three global warming ‘scenarios to rainfall–runoff and groundwater models. It was estimated that under a dry future climate scenario, the frequency of river flow rates important for ecological communities is likely to be reduced by up to 2months per year, which is likely to cause a significant level of stress to ecological communities. Additionally, the duration of no-flow periods may increase by more than 120days in some streams. Under a dry future climate scenario, groundwater-dependent vegetation is projected to be at a high risk in over 19% of its current habitat area. Water-dependent ecosystems are also projected to be affected by an increase in groundwater abstraction. The results indicate that the projected impacts of future climate conditions are not likely to be uniform across the region but overall they could cause a continuing threat to water-dependent ecosystems. The implementation of water management plans should place particular emphasis on the ecological water requirements in 6 of the 13 river catchments in south-western Australia and in areas where groundwater abstraction is high. The climate projections and ecological impacts are a continuation of the trends that have taken place in the past three decades. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper presents the results of computer simulations of runoff from 13 major fresh and brackish river basins in south-western Australia (SWA) under climate projections obtained from 15 GCMs with three future global warming scenarios equivalent to global temperature rises of 0.7°C, 1.0°C and 1.3°C by 2030. The objective was to apply an efficient methodology, consistent across a large region, to examine the implications of the best available projections in climate trends for future surface water resources. An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models was calibrated on stream flow data from 1975 to 2007 from 106 gauged catchments distributed throughout the basins of the study area. The sensitivity of runoff to projected changes in mean annual rainfall is examined using the climate ‘elasticity’ concept. Averaged across the study area, all 15 GCMs project declines in rainfall under all global warming scenarios with a median decline of 8% resulting in a median decline in runoff of 25%. Such uniformity in projections from GCMs is unusual. Over SWA the average annual runoff under the 5th wettest and 5th driest of the 45 projections of the 2030 climate declines by 10 and 42%, respectively. Under the 5th driest projection the runoff decline ranges from 53% in the northern region to 40% in the southern region. Strong regional variations in climate sensitivity are found with the proportional decline in runoff greatest in the northern region and the greatest volumetric declines in the wetter basins in the south. Since the mid 1970s stream flows into the major water supply reservoirs in SWA have declined by more than 50% following a 16% rainfall reduction. This has already had major implications for water resources planning and for the preservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the region. Our results indicate that this reduction in runoff is likely to continue if future climate projections eventuate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Determining evaporation rates is essential for efficient management of reservoirs and water resources, particularly in water-scarce countries such as Australia. Today, it is estimated that open water reservoirs in Australia lose around 40% of their total water storage capacity per year to evaporation. While this loss is of significant concern, the threat of a changing climate has been directing greater focus to how much water will be lost from Australia’s reservoirs in the future. This paper analyses evaporation rates from a large water supply reservoir in South-East Queensland (SEQ), Australia, under current climate and predicted climate change conditions using modelling. Daily meteorological projections from nine global climate models were used in the model DYRESM as the driving forces of the thermodynamics of the reservoir under study. Two future 20-year period simulations were undertaken, one from 2030 to 2050, and the other from 2070 to 2090. The modelled future evaporation rates, as well as water temperatures, were then compared with modelled evaporation rates and temperatures obtained using observed meteorological variables for the period of 1990–2010. The results showed that the evaporation rates from the study reservoir will increase in the future. For the period centred in 2040, the annual evaporation will be approximately 8% higher than the 20-year average annual evaporation estimated for the present climate. A more pronounced increase in evaporation is expected in 2070–2090, with annual evaporation predictions being approximately 15% higher than the baseline evaporation. The main agent behind this increase is higher surface air temperatures in the future. According to the modelling results, the mean annual surface air temperature will grow from the present value of 20.4°C to 21.5°C in 2030–2050, and to 23.2°C in 2070–2090. As a consequence, the mean annual surface water temperatures of the reservoir will increase by 0.9°C and 1.7°C in both timeframes, respectively. This will have a significant impact on the evaporation rates, particularly in spring and summer, when the temperature increases will be more significant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The effect of future climate scenarios on surface water and groundwater resources has been shown to have a consequent impact on water-dependent ecosystems. A regional-scale analysis of changes in water resources as a result of changing climate was undertaken in south-western Australia; a region with a large number of nationally and internationally recognised water-dependent ecosystems. The paper examines the potential environmental impacts of a substantial reduction in rainfall and an increase in temperature as projected by global climate models (GCMs) on river and groundwater-dependent terrestrial vegetation by 2030. Climate change effects on environmentally significant flow regimes were evaluated by applying the climate projections from 15 GCMs under three global warming ‘scenarios to rainfall–runoff and groundwater models. It was estimated that under a dry future climate scenario, the frequency of river flow rates important for ecological communities is likely to be reduced by up to 2months per year, which is likely to cause a significant level of stress to ecological communities. Additionally, the duration of no-flow periods may increase by more than 120days in some streams. Under a dry future climate scenario, groundwater-dependent vegetation is projected to be at a high risk in over 19% of its current habitat area. Water-dependent ecosystems are also projected to be affected by an increase in groundwater abstraction. The results indicate that the projected impacts of future climate conditions are not likely to be uniform across the region but overall they could cause a continuing threat to water-dependent ecosystems. The implementation of water management plans should place particular emphasis on the ecological water requirements in 6 of the 13 river catchments in south-western Australia and in areas where groundwater abstraction is high. The climate projections and ecological impacts are a continuation of the trends that have taken place in the past three decades. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Given the recent increasing public focus on climate change issues, there is a need for robust, sustainable and climate friendly power transmission and distribution systems that are intelligent, reliable, and green. Current power systems create environmental impacts as well as contributing to global warming due to their utilization of fossil fuels, especially coal, as carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. In contrast to fossil fuels, renewable energy is starting to be used as the panacea for solving climate change or global warming problems. This paper describes a feasibility study undertaken to investigate the potentialities of renewable energy including the prospective locations in Australia for renewable energy generation, in particular solar and wind energy. Initially, a hybrid model has been developed to investigate the prospects of wind energy for typical Australian region considering production cost, cost of energy, emission production and contribution from renewable energy using the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER), a computer model developed by the USA’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This model also explores suitable places around Australia for wind energy generation using statistical analysis. Subsequently, the usefulness of solar energy in the Australian context and suitable locations for solar energy generation are also investigated using a similar hybrid model. Finally, the model has been developed to investigate the prospects of renewable energy in particular wind and solar energy including specific locations in Australia that would be suitable for both wind and solar energy generation. From simulation analysis it is clearly observed that Australia has enormous potentialities for substantially increased use of renewable energy; a large penetration of renewable energy sources into the national power system would reduce CO2 emissions significantly, contributing to the reduction of global warming. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Most of the plantation impact studies reported in literature normally use either one of the sensitivity-based approach or a hydrological model with few actually comparing the impact results from these different approaches. This paper investigates the impacts of increase or decrease in plantations and climate variability on streamflow using two approaches: the sensitivity-based approach (including a non-parametric model and six Budyko framework based models) and the hydrological modelling approach (using Xinanjiang and SIMHYD models) for three medium sized catchments in Australia. The results from the nine methods show that both plantation expansion/reduction and climatic differences can have major effects on catchment streamflow. There is a small variability in the reduction or increase in streamflow estimated by the nine methods. The results from this study show that the estimates of plantation impacts from the dynamic hydrological models are similar to those from the commonly used sensitivity-based approaches. The sensitivity-based approaches are only applicable where long term datasets are available and they only provide results at a mean annual time scale. The hydrological models simulate plantation impacted streamflow time series and so they can be used to estimate the relative contributions of land cover changes and climate change/variability at a daily, monthly or annual time-step. The outputs from the hydrological models can also be used to investigate the impacts of plantation expansion or reduction and climate change/variability on different runoff characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The FARMSCAPE Information System emerged in a long-running research program aimed at making simulation models useful to Australian farmers in managing climatic variability. This paper is about how well it has worked. This is reported in relation to two standards: (1) the value to thinking and action expressed by farmers and their consultants, (2) correspondence with theory about learning and judgement in uncertain external environments. The former utilises recorded narrative interviews with participants over many years. The latter uses a cognitive framework drawn from theory of judgment and decision making featuring the relationship between intuition and analysis (). The cognitive theory framework makes sense of several evaluation surprises. The first was high enthusiasm by largely-intuitive farmers for an analytic approach to soil water in conjunction with a newly-appreciated “bucket” metaphor for water balance. The second surprise was the virtual absence of soil water measurement 10years later. This had been replaced by various intuitive estimates, calibrated to maintain a heuristic relationship with regard to the “bucket” as a resource. Farmers and their advisers were facilitated in using simulation for thought experiments and planning under climatic uncertainty. Benchmarking enabled problem solving in documented conditions. Scenario analysis using historical climate records supported thought experiments by providing probability distributions that were valued for shaping expectations as a “history of the future”. In retrospective evaluation interviews, researchers were surprised to find that yield forecasting and tactical decision making, anticipated to be analyses that were both site- and season-specific forecasts, had served farmers as “management gaming” simulations to aid formulating action rules for such conditions, thus reducing the need for an on-going decision-aiding service. Equipped with their soil monitoring techniques and with their heuristic rules, farmers still reserved a place for simulation “when you’ve got a planting situation out of the ordinary.” [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The balance between evapotranspiration (ET) loss and rainfall ingress in treatment wetlands (TWs) can affect their suitability for certain applications. The aim of this paper was to investigate the water balance and seasonal dynamics in ET of subsurface horizontal flow (HF) TWs in a sub-tropical climate. Monthly water balances were compiled for four pilot-scale HF TWs receiving horticultural runoff over a two year period (Sep. 1999–Aug. 2001) on the sub-tropical east-coast of Australia. The mean annual wetland ET rate increased from 7.0 mm/day in the first year to 10.6 mm/day in the second, in response to the development of the reed (Phragmites australis) population. Consequently, the annual crop coefficients (ratio of wetland ET to pan evaporation) increased from 1.9 in the first year to 2.6 in the second. The mean monthly ET rates were generally greater and more variable than the Class-A pan evaporation rates, indicating that transpiration is an important contributor to ET in HF TWs. Evapotranspiration rates were generally highest in the summer and autumn months, and corresponded with the times of peak standing biomass of P. australis. It is likely that ET from the relatively small 1 m wide by 4 m long HF TWs was enhanced by advection through so-called “clothesline” and “oasis” effects, which contributed to the high crop coefficients. For the second year, when the reed population was well established, the annual net loss to the atmosphere (taking into account rainfall inputs) accounted for 6.1–9.6 % of the influent hydraulic load, which is considered negligible. However, the net loss is likely to be higher in arid regions with lower rainfall. The Water Use Efficiency (WUE) of the wetlands in the second year of operation was 1.3 g of above-ground biomass produced per kilogram of water consumed, which is low compared to agricultural crops. It is proposed that system level WUE provides a useful metric for selecting wetland plant species and TW design alternatives to use in arid regions where excessive water loss from constructed wetlands can be problematic. Further research is needed to accrue long-term HF TW water balance data especially in arid climatic zones. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper describes a robust methodology for determining current surface and groundwater availability and use, as well as future changes due to climate and landuse changes. It is based on the methodology developed by CSIRO to deliver on four large-scale water availability assessments conducted in the Murray-Darling Basin, Northern Australia, south-west Western Australia, and Tasmania. It will focus on the application of the technique and results from Tasmania, providing a representative example of the approach used. The genesis of this work was the explicit desire by Australian State and Commonwealth governments to use the outputs of these water availability assessments for assisting the formation of state and federal government water policy. For example, the results of the work have already been utilised as a key technical input to decision making on funding for proposed irrigation projects in Tasmania. Outputs from the other three study areas have been used to assist in developing a water resources plan for the Murray-Darling Basin, to guide infrastructure development in northern Australia, and to plan for reductions in water availability due to climate change in south-west Western Australia. The methodology assesses current water availability through the application of rainfall–runoff and river models, and recharge and groundwater models. These were calibrated to streamflow records and groundwater levels, and parameterised using estimates of current surface and groundwater extractions and use. Having derived an estimate of current water availability, the impacts of future climate change on water availability were determined through deriving projected changes in rainfall and potential evaporation from 15 IPCC AR4 global climate models. The changes in rainfall were then dynamically downscaled using the CSIRO-CCAM model over the study area (50,000km2). The future climate sequence was then derived by modifying the historical 84-year climate sequence based on these changes in rainfall and potential evaporation. This future climate sequence was then run through the rainfall–runoff, river, recharge and groundwater models to give an estimate of water availability under future climate. The impacts of landuse changes were derived by modifying the parameters and inputs/outputs of each of the models as appropriate. Results for Tasmania indicate that historical average surface water availability across the study area is 21,815GL/year. Of this, 636GL/year is currently extracted for use. Historical groundwater development in Tasmania has been largely unregulated and unmetered, however current extraction is estimated to be only 38GL/year. In some intensive irrigation areas, the modelling has demonstrated that current and future groundwater extraction will reduce baseflow in connected streams. By 2030, rainfall is projected to decrease by an average of 3% over the study area. This decrease in rainfall and concurrent increase in potential evaporation leads to a decrease in runoff and, to a lesser extent recharge, leading to a reduction in surface water availability of 5% by 2030. Results from this study are being used by the Tasmanian and Australian governments to guide decisions on the development of a sustainable irrigated agriculture industry in Tasmania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Policy makers in the agricultural sector are confronted with challenges which might drive land use change and ultimately agricultural profitability to a substantial degree. The challenges include questions around climate variability, demographic changes, use of land for bio-fuel production and ensuring an increase in food production. As profitability triggers many agri-business decisions, knowledge about the existing socio-economic landscape and the economic profile of a region as well as potential impacts on profits provides useful contextual information when agricultural policies are designed. Given the upcoming challenges and their associated uncertainties, it is important to ensure that a map of agricultural profit can be reproduced in a scenario and simulation setting which will allow exploring uncertainties around the impacts on agricultural profits as well. There is however currently no flexible system in operation which allows for a consistent update of a map of agricultural profits in Australia or elsewhere. This paper describes a process that has been developed to produce a map of agricultural profit for Australia for the year 2005/2006. The process involves a complex data architecture that accounts for heterogeneous information that is collected by a variety of institutions across different scales. All information can be comfortably queried and query results can be forwarded for immediate processing and subsequent visualisation in a geographic information system (GIS). To facilitate the production of profit maps in the future, the system provides flexibility regarding an update of new economic information but it can also be linked to maps that show an updated distribution of land use. A map of agricultural profit on a large scale and regular updates thereof will help understand profit trends in time and across space. It will help identifying regions that have a lower economic profile and will inform decisions regarding the design of regulatory policies. As these maps are developed using national scale data, we do not recommend using the results at the farm level but we suggest using separate catchment scale profit assessments to calibrate the national scale profit map. The proposed system is well suited to be used in various land use management and economic scenarios and will represent a step forward regarding a scenario impact assessment on agricultural profits. It will also help understand the economic benefit of land use on a large scale. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Transport is Australia’s third largest and second fastest growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The road transport sector makes up 88% of total transport emissions and the projected emissions increase from 1990 to 2020 is 64%. Achieving prospective emission reduction targets will pose major challenges for the road transport sector. This paper investigates two targets for reducing Australian road transport greenhouse gas emissions, and what they might mean for the sector: emissions in 2020 being 20% below 2000 levels; and emissions in 2050 being 80% below 2000 levels. Six ways in which emissions might be reduced to achieve these targets are considered. The analysis suggests that major behavioural and technological changes will be required to deliver significant emission reductions, with very substantial reductions in vehicle emission intensity being absolutely vital to making major inroads in road transport GHG emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Dryland salinity threatens many high-value assets in Australia. Assessing the technical feasibility of intervention requires consideration of spatial and temporal dimensions of land management and associated surface–groundwater interactions. This paper presents results regarding the practicability of protecting assets in a 371,000-ha agriculturally dominated catchment in south-eastern Australia using a physically-based catchment model, the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT). The model links surface land management and hydrology at the paddock scale (daily time step growth and water use, crop rotations and management) with a fully distributed groundwater model enabling the assessment of agronomic versus engineering options for landscape asset protection. Scenarios assessing management options and costs of planting of perennial vegetation or engineering through groundwater pumping are outlined. The impacts of scenarios are reported under future climatic conditions as well as for the ‘steady state’ response. The study demonstrates a linked surface–groundwater modelling approach to estimate groundwater capture zones, response times to equilibrium under current and climate change conditions, as well as groundwater abstraction volumes required to protect landscape features. These factors are important considerations for evidence-based decision making about protecting assets from dryland salinity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the idea that plasticity in farm management introduces resilience to change and allows farm businesses to perform when operating in highly variable environments. We also argue for the need to develop and apply more integrative assessments of farm performance that combine the use of modelling tools with deliberative processes involving farmers and researchers in a co-learning process, to more effectively identify and implement more productive and resilient farm businesses. In a plastic farming system, farm management is highly contingent on environmental conditions. In plastic farming systems farm managers constantly vary crops and inputs based on the availability of limited and variable resources (e.g. land, water, finances, labour, machinery, etc.), and signals from its operating environment (e.g. climate, markets), with the objective of maximising a number of, often competing, objectives (e.g. maximise profits, minimise risks, etc.). In contrast in more rigid farming systems farm management is more calendar driven and relatively fixed sequences of crops are regularly followed over time and across the farm. Here we describe the application of a whole farm simulation model to (i) compare, in silico, the sensitivity of two farming systems designs of contrasting levels of plasticity, operating in two contrasting environments, when exposed to a stressor in the form of climate change scenarios;(ii) investigate the presence of interactions and feedbacks at the field and farm levels capable of modifying the intensity and direction of the responses to climate signals; and (iii) discuss the need for the development and application of more integrative assessments in the analysis of impacts and adaptation options to climate change. In both environments, the more plastic farm management strategy had higher median profits and was less risky for the baseline and less intensive climate change scenarios (2030). However, for the more severe climate change scenarios (2070), the benefit of plastic strategies tended to disappear. These results suggest that, to a point, farming systems having higher levels of plasticity would enable farmers to more effectively respond to climate shifts, thus ensuring the economic viability of the farm business. Though, as the intensity of the stress increases (e.g. 2070 climate change scenario) more significant changes in the farming system might be required to adapt. We also found that in the case studies analysed here, most of the impacts from the climate change scenarios on farm profit and economic risk originated from important reductions in cropping intensity and changes in crop mix rather than from changes in the yields of individual crops. Changes in cropping intensity and crop mix were explained by the combination of reductions in the number of sowing opportunities around critical times in the cropping calendar, and to operational constraints at the whole farm level i.e. limited work capacity in an environment having fewer and more concentrated sowing opportunities. This indicates that indirect impacts from shifts in climate on farm operations can be more important than direct impacts from climate on the yield of individual crops. The results suggest that due to the complexity of farm businesses, impact assessments and opportunities for adaptation to climate change might also need to be pursued at higher integration levels than the crop or the field. We conclude that plasticity can be a desirable characteristic in farming systems operating in highly variable environments, and that integrated whole farm systems analyses of impacts and adaptation to climate change are required to identify important interactions between farm management decision rules, availability of resources, and farmer''s preference. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Atmospheric CO2 is a major cause of reinforcement corrosion in bridges, buildings, wharves, and other concrete infrastructure in Australia, United States, United Kingdom and most other countries. The increase in CO2 levels associated with global warming will increase the likelihood of carbonation-induced corrosion. Moreover, temperature rises will increase corrosion rates. Clearly, the impact of climate change on existing and new infrastructure is considerable, as corrosion damage is disruptive to society and costly to repair. The paper describes a probabilistic and reliability-based approach that predicts the probability of corrosion initiation and damage (severe cracking) for concrete infrastructure subjected to carbonation and chloride-induced corrosion resulting from elevated CO2 levels and temperatures. The atmospheric CO2 concentration and local temperature and relative humidity changes with time over the next 100 years in the Australian cities of Sydney and Darwin are projected based on nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under (i) high CO2 emission scenario, (ii) medium CO2 emission scenario, and (iii) CO2 emission reduction scenario based on policy intervention. The probabilistic analysis included the uncertainty of CO2 concentration, deterioration processes, material properties, dimensions, and predictive models. It was found that carbonation-induced damage risks can increase by over 400% over a time period to 2100 for some regions in Australia. Damage risks for chloride-induced corrosion increase by no more than 15% over the same time period due to temperature increase, but without consideration of ocean acidity change in marine exposure. Corrosion loss of reinforcement is not significant. The results were most sensitive to increases in atmospheric CO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes the species-specific responses recorded from two toxin-producing cyanobacteria Aphanizomenon ovalisporum (Forti) and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Woloszynska) Seenaya and Subba Raju as they approached an overwintering phase in Cobaki Lake (New South Wales, Australia). Each species was examined from samples collected at every metre from a time series of depth profiles and analyzed with respect to growth of specialized cells (heterocytes and akinetes), presence of cylindrospermopsins and the accompanying seasonal dynamics of the water body. Growth and dominance of each species was linked to differing seasonal environmental conditions. Both A. ovalisporum and C. raciborskii produced specialized cells during the bloom. As the water chemistry changed, A. ovalisporum produced akinetes before experiencing a rapid decline in cell numbers. In contrast, C. raciborskii continued to bloom without producing detectable akinetes. Peak C. raciborskii cell concentrations (83,160cellsmL−1) occurred in the late autumn, when surface water temperatures were 19.1°C, and were accompanied by concentrations of total cylindrospermopsins in the hypolimnion exceeding 100μgL−1. These toxin concentrations were highly positively correlated with conductivity, soluble iron, bioavailable nutrient species and heterocyte densities. This is the first field study to provide evidence that C. raciborskii, despite being traditionally considered a tropical species, can be highly toxic in cooler waters especially when accompanied by strong stratification involving an anoxic semi-saline hypolimnion. This has serious implications for both water quality management and human health risks in those subtropical climates where C. raciborskii is present. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]