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• Multi-modal energy system planning approach to support political decision makers. • Energy sector coupling enables efficient transition pathway to achieve climate goals. • Main drivers: electrification of heat and mobility sectors and use of synthetic fuels. • High impact of the electricity exchange on the operation and costs of the system. In order to reach the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a stepwise reduction of energy related greenhouse gas emissions as well as an increase in the share of renewable energies is necessary. For a successful realization of these changes in energy supply, an integrated view of multiple energy sectors is necessary. The coupling of different energy sectors is seen as an option to achieve the climate goals in a cost-effective way. In this paper, a methodical approach for multi-modal energy system planning and technology impact evaluation is presented. A key feature of the model is a coupled consideration of the sectors electricity, heat, fuel and mobility. The modeling framework enables system planners to optimally plan future investments in a detailed transition pathway of the energy system of a country, considering politically defined climate goals. Based on these calculations, in-depth analyses of energy markets as well as electrical transmission and distribution grids can be performed using the presented optimization models. Energy demands, conversion and storage technologies in households, the Commerce, Trade and Services (CTS) area and the industry are modeled employing a bottom-up modeling approach. The results for the optimal planning of the German energy system until 2050 show that the combination of an increased share of renewable energies and the direct electrification of heat and mobility sectors together with the use of synthetic fuels are the main drivers to achieve the climate goals in a cost-efficient way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the current geopolitical situation, the EU and its Member States are accelerating efforts to reduce their dependency on fossil fuel imports, while simultaneously tackling the climate crisis. With heating in buildings accounting for a large share of the energy consumption in the EU, policies to phase-out fossil fuels for heating and to switch to renewables are key elements. In the context of the proposed actions to phase-out fossil fuels at EU level, this article provides a systematic analysis of current and planned phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers in the EU Member States. The paper quantifies the share of energy consumption for heating that is addressed by such regulations and finds that the current regulations only address about 10% of the total fossil energy consumption for heating in the EU. The share increases to almost 30% when considering the planned regulations, reflecting the fact that large energy consumers such as Germany and the Netherlands have announced such regulations. The analysis shows that several Member States with high energy consumption for heating have neither implemented nor announced plans to introduce phase-out regulations for fossil fuel heating. The study concludes that immediate policy action is needed both at EU and at Member State levels. At EU level, the proposed introduction of an end-date for stand-alone fossil fuel boilers needs to be substantiated and implemented into the legislative framework. At the national level, phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers need to be expanded both in quantity and scope. [Display omitted] • Systematic analysis of phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers in the EU. • Only 10% of the EU fossil energy used for heating is covered by phase-out regulations. • Including planned regulations, the share of heating energy covered by phase-out regulations increases to almost 30%. • Comparison of different approaches for implementing regulations for phasing out fossil fuel boilers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Local public health authorities often lack the capacity to adapt to climate change, despite being on the 'front lines' of climate impacts. Upper-level governments are well positioned to create an enabling environment for adaptation and build local public health authorities' capacity, yet adaptation literature has not specified how upper-level governments can build local-level adaptive capacity. In this paper we examine how federal and regional governments can contribute to enabling and supporting public health adaptation to climate change at the local level in federal systems. We outline the local level's self-assessed adaptive capacity for public health adaptation in Canadian and German comparative case studies, in terms of funding, knowledge and skills, organizations, and prioritization, drawing upon 30 semi-structured interviews. Based on interviewees' recommendations and complemented by scientific literature, we develop a set of practical measures that could enable or support local-level public health adaptation. We find that adaptive capacity varies widely between local public health authorities, but most report having insufficient funding and staff for adaptation activities. We propose 10 specific measures upper-level governments can take to build local public health authorities' capacity for adaptation, under the interrelated target areas of: building financial capital; developing and disseminating usable knowledge; collaborating and coordinating for shared knowledge; and claiming leadership. Federal and regional governments have an important role to play in enabling local-level public health adaptation, and have many instruments available to them to fulfill that role. Selecting and implementing measures to enable local public health authorities' adaptive capacity will require tailoring to, and consideration, of the local context and needs. Highlights • Local public health authorities often lack capacity to adapt to climate change. • National and regional governments can play supportive or enabling role. • We propose 10 concrete measures to enable local public health adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deployment of onshore wind power is an important means to mitigate climate change. However, wind turbines also have negative impacts at the local scale, like disamenities to residents living nearby, changes in landscape quality, or conflicts with nature conservation. Our paper quantifies spatial trade-offs arising between these criteria. For this purpose, we propose a novel approach using Pareto frontiers and a Gini-like potential trade-off indicator. Our analysis builds on a spatial optimization model using geographical information system data for Germany. We show that spatial trade-offs between the criteria under consideration are substantial. The size of the trade-off varies substantially with the criteria under consideration, depending on the spatial heterogeneity of each criterion as well as on the spatial correlation between the criteria. Spatial trade-offs are particularly pronounced between nature conservation (measured by impacts on wind power-sensitive birds) and other criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is considerable research on the climate effects of daily travel, including research on the spatio-temporal and socioeconomic impact factors of daily travel and associated climate change effects. However, this is less true with respect to long-distance trips. This paper uses national transport survey data from Germany to point out differences in GHG emissions related to demographic, socioeconomic and spatial characteristics for daily and long-distance travel. Daily travel and long-distance travel are investigated simultaneously and separately using Logit and OLS regressions. The results show that transport-related GHG emissions from long-distance trips and daily trips are affected by sociodemographics in largely the same direction. In contrast, spatial attributes, like municipality size or density grade of the region, show a different picture. Per capita emissions in rural and suburban areas are higher for daily trips, but lower for long-distance trips than emissions caused by urban residents. While we cannot rule out the possibility of residential self-selection, our findings challenge the idea that compact urban development may help reduce CO 2 emissions once long-distance trips are taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have analysed the environmental impact of vegan, vegetarian, or reduced meat diets. To date, literature has not evaluated how diet shifts affect environmental impacts by utilising portfolios which reflect personal nutrition preferences. Further, changing diets could alter the available land for non-food uses. This paper defines novel diet portfolios to outline alternative diet transitions and choices within the population and finds their effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primary energy use, and land use in Germany. The aim of this study is to capture how these diet shifts affect land availability and increase the options for land-based climate change mitigation strategies. To do so, a contextualisation is made to compare the use of freed-up land for afforestation or biomethane production (with and without carbon capture and storage). The investigated diet portfolios lead to a reduction of the investigated impacts (GHG emissions: 7–67%; energy use: 5–46%; land use: 6–64%). Additionally, afforestation of freed-up land from each diet portfolio leads to further emission removals of 4–37%. In comparison, using the land to produce energy crops for biomethane production could lead to 2–23% further CO2-eq emission reductions when replacing fossil methane. If biomethane production is paired with carbon capture and storage, emission abatement is increased to 3–34%. This research indicates various short-term pathways to reduce GHG emissions with portfolio diet shifts. Utilising freed-up land for climate change mitigation strategies could prove essential to meet climate targets, but trade-offs with, e.g. biodiversity and ecosystem services exist and should be considered. • Diet portfolios are used to represent realistic population diets. • Diet portfolios include a mixture of 12 different diets. • GHG emissions decrease by 67% if the population adopts a Vegan diet. • Afforestation removes almost double the emissions compared to biomethane. • BECCS has similar GHG abatement to afforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of future sea-level rise (SLR) on the tides of the northwest European Continental Shelf. The European shelf tide is dominated by semidiurnal constituents. This study therefore focuses primarily on the changes in the M2 tidal constituent and the spring and neap tidal conditions. The validated operational Dutch Continental Shelf Model is run for the present day sea-level as well as 2 and 10m SLR scenarios. The M2 tidal amplitude responds to SLR in a spatially non-uniform manner, with substantial amplitude increases and decreases in both scenarios. The M2 tidal response is non-linear between 2 and 10m with respect to SLR, particularly in the North Sea. Under the 2m SLR scenario the M2 constituent is particularly responsive in the resonant areas of the Bristol Channel and Gulf of St. Malo (with large amplitude decreases) and in the southeastern German Bight and Dutch Wadden Sea (with large amplitude increases). Changes in the spring tide are generally greater still than those in the M2 or neap tides. With 2m SLR the spring tidal range increases up to 35cm at Cuxhaven and decreases up to −49cm at St. Malo. Additionally the changes in the shallow water tides are larger than expected. With SLR the depth, wave speed and wave length (tidal resonance characteristics) are increased causing changes in near resonant areas. In expansive shallow areas SLR causes reduced energy dissipation by bottom friction. Combined these mechanisms result in the migration of the amphidromes and complex patterns of non-linear change in the tide with SLR. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the rate of SLR over the next century, substantial alterations to tidal characteristics can be expected under a high end SLR scenario. Contrary to existing studies this paper highlights the importance of considering the modification of the tides by future SLR. These substantial future changes in the tides could have wide reaching implications; including for example, correctly calculating design level requirements for flood defences, the availability of tidal renewable energy and dredging requirements. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper addresses the important question of how institutional structures matter to the delivery of climate change policy for urban transport. It examines the strategic goals, policy tools in operation and initial progress towards carbon emission reduction in seven cities across the UK and Germany where different institutional structures exist. The UK has the presence of a strong national carbon target and strong hierarchical national–local government relationships whilst Germany has a more integrated system of local transport provision in a context where local and regional government is stronger. Our findings show that the carbon agenda has made very little difference to what is happening on the ground in the cities. Across all sites, progress is being made but largely through technological improvements which are being almost completely offset by population growth. Even in the more integrated city environments there has not be an additional stimulus to manage the demand for travel. Contrary to previous research therefore, we cannot conclude that institutional structures are paramount in delivering effective carbon reduction policies. The institutional structures in the UK and in Germany are not perfectly aligned to carbon management but, given the cross policy impacts of most transport interventions, this is perhaps inevitable. We can clearly conclude however that “better” structures are not sufficient to achieve the implementation of more effective carbon policies. Whilst institutional structures must matter, it is the broader governance environment and the resources and politics involved in transport policy that currently seem to dominate the importance of the carbon agenda and implementation paths that emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate impact analysis of air transport from Germany. • Scenario dependent forecast of passenger flights from Germany. • Scenario dependent forecast of specific emissions by traffic regions. • Focus on both CO 2 and NO x emissions. • Forecast of climate impact effects for three scenarios up to the year 2100. Transport is considered to be a major contributor to emissions, resulting in a deterioration of local air quality and contributing to global climate change. The present paper focuses on how passenger flights departing from German airports contribute to global climate change. We describe in detail, how traffic forecasts for three scenarios entitled Reference, Free Play and Regulated Shift have been developed and how the resultant emissions have been quantified. Subsequently, we applied a climate model, providing insights into the very long-term climate effects under different assumptions on emissions up to the year 2100. The modelling framework shows that the development of emissions results from complex interactions of demand development and supply decisions, which highly influence the climate impact. With this paper, we show that an integrated, multi-disciplinary analysis can create valuable indicators and advice for transport policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An analytical framework is applied to identify barriers to adaptation. • A case study of the transport sector of Bogotá, Colombia is presented. • The analysis identified information, resources and incentives barriers. • The institutional environment is the most influential underlying factor. • There is potential for this study to be replicated in other parts of the world. The adaptation of transport systems to climate change is crucial for maintaining city functions in the future. Due to the complexity of this process, urban transport planners may not always be aware of all challenges they must face, leading to maladaptation or lack of adaptation of the transport systems of their cities. Recognising this complexity, this paper identifies barriers and opportunities for effective adaptation planning via a socio-technical perspective. An existing analytical framework, previously used in some cities of Latin America and Germany, is adopted and applied to a case study of Bogotá, Colombia. Interviews conducted with local professionals and a review of policy documents and technical reports provided insight into city governance processes and the extent to which climate change adaptation shapes transport sector decisions. The study reveals that incomplete or unusable information about climate change and its effects, reduced availability of economic and human resources, and the lack of adequate incentives are limiting adaptation within the transport planning processes of the city. It also demonstrates the critical influence of the institutional structure in determining which infrastructure options are considered feasible and preferable. The study elucidates what levers are available to transport planners and why some solutions are just not considered. There is potential for this study to be replicated in other parts of the world to help support the development of effective systemic intervention to support adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, the dependence of ozone-forming potential on temperature was analysed based on data from two stations (with an industrial and rural background, respectively) in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, for the period of 1983–2007. After examining the interrelations between ozone, NO x and temperature, a projection of the days with ozone exceedance (over a limit value of a daily maximum 8-h average≥120 μg m−3 for 25 days per year averaged for 3 years) in terms of global climate change was made using probability theory and an autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results show that with a temperature increase of 3 K, the frequency of days when ozone exceeds its limit value will increase by 135% at the industrial station and by 87% at the rural background station. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: New paleoclimatic data for the Lateglacial clarify climatic phases during the Lateglacial. Cold climate played a key role in limiting Magdalenian expansion from southwest and central Europe This paper presents chronological and geographic data for the different climatic phases to map the expansion of the Magdalenian into northwest Europe. Specifically, it can be seen that initial expansion follows a southwest-northeast trajectory into southern Germany, followed by northern expansion into Belgium, central Germany and the Paris Basin at the end of the Oldest Dryas. During the Bølling and Allerød phases, human occupation intensified in the Paris Basin and contacts and/or territorial exploitation between both the Paris Basin and the Rhineland region with Belgian territory is demonstrated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper highlights the distinctive discursive framing of transport policy in Germany and the UK. Using an analysis of the introduction of the ‘scrappage bonus’ in both countries, against the background of the financial crisis, we show how distinct nationally specific discourses and political cultures are expressed within these. The German government was an early adopter of the policy, but the UK government was relatively late in introducing its own scheme. While the German scrappage scheme was introduced officially as an environmental bonus, the UK scheme did not make any reference to environmental concerns. We argue that these differences are important in the context of a wider research aim, to identify nationally specific mobility regimes and to develop an understanding of different possible pathways towards more environmentally friendly transport futures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Within modern society, business organizations have a co-evolutionary relationship with society and ecosystems. Business organizations face highly diverse risks which they have to recognize, reflect on and handle. Climate change and its impacts clarify the need for managing overall system risk. Research has shown that climate vulnerability of business organizations in the German food industry is characterized by impacts that, in particular, affect business organizations indirectly. Indirect climate change caused impacts are complex, uncertain and characterized by a high degree of unpredictability. They focus on the derived social, ecological, economic and cultural consequences of the direct physical impacts from a worldwide perspective. This paper shows that introducing resilience thinking helps to identify strategic risks and opportunities coping with climate change caused impacts in sense of corporate climate adaptation strategies. Furthermore, it is shown from a strategic management perspective that mitigation is a profound element of long term adaptation strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

There is an ongoing scientific debate about how environmental concern develops in a population, and under which circumstances it might decline at some point. In this paper, by analysing thirty years of microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), I investigate the role of socioeconomic factors and political preferences in altering and addressing environmental perceptions in Germany, Europe's green leader. Results from correlated random-effects models reveal, inter alia, that economic insecurity and support for right-wing political parties significantly contribute to lowering environmental concern. Hence, policymakers ought to focus on economic insecurity in order to increase citizens' environmental concern and, eventually, bring an enhancement in pro-environmental behaviour as a result of the voters' political will. • I examine the economic and political factors shaping environmental concern over time. • I analyse 30 years of microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). • I employ Mundlak-type correlated random-effects models and Difference-in-Differences. • Economic insecurity and political choices are key drivers of environmental concern. • The results may be useful to policymakers, marketers, green businesses, and educators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper focuses on green defaults as demand-side policies supporting the uptake of renewable energy in Germany. It sets out to gain a better understanding of whether and for whom green electricity defaults work. The present study is one of the first to use a large-scale data set to investigate this question. We combine micro-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) covering private households (including a wealth of individual information) with macro-level information such as population density of a region and proportion of energy suppliers in a given region that use a green opt-out tariff within their basic supply. We show that in Germany, green defaults, automatically enrolling customers in renewable energy sources, tend to stick, especially but not only among those who are concerned about the problem of climate change. This finding, based on real-world rather than experimental evidence, attests to the power of automatic enrollment in addressing environmental problems in Germany and potentially beyond, including climate change, and also adds to the growing literature on the substantial effects of shifting from opt-in to opt-out strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the effects of framing a polluting activity in different contexts, i.e. different modes of transportation (bus versus plane) and different travel occasions (holiday versus professional training) on the individual willingness to pay (WTP) for carbon offsetting. For both types of framing, we also study additional contributions from the travel provider (i.e. matching). The empirical analyses with mixed logit and latent class logit models are based on data from discrete choice experiments with a representative sample of about 1000 individuals from Germany. The findings suggest substantial and systematic framing effects resulting from varying the mode of transportation, but not the travel occasion. Furthermore, the individual WTP is significantly higher across all four contexts when offsets are matched by the travel provider at a rate of 100%. In contrast, a lower matching rate of 33% is only relevant for one context, i.e. bus trips to a professional training. In addition, our results indicate that re-/afforestation projects are preferred to renewable energies projects or projects to improve energy efficiency. Likewise, projects carried out in a participant's region are preferred to projects implemented in European countries other than Germany or in developing countries. Finally, the WTP for offsets is found to be significantly higher for individuals with higher income, younger age, and stronger environmental and social preferences, as well as for individuals who believe that offsetting is effective in protecting the climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]