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Urban carbon emissions are an important area for addressing climate change, and it is necessary to establish scientific and effective carbon emission prediction models to formulate reasonable emission reduction policies and measures. In this paper, a novel model based on Lasso regression, an ARIMA model, and a BPNN is proposed. Lasso regression is used to screen the key factors affecting carbon emissions, and the ARIMA model is used to extract the linear components of the carbon emission sequences, while the BPNN is used to predict the residuals of the ARIMA model. The final result is the sum of that from the ARIMA model and the BPNN. The carbon peak, carbon neutralization time, and emissions were analyzed under different scenarios. Taking Suzhou City as an example, the results show that the electricity consumption of the whole population is one of the key drivers of carbon emissions; the carbon emission prediction accuracy and stability of the ARIMA-BPNN combined model are better than those of the single model, which improves the reliability as well as the accuracy of the model's prediction. However, under the constraints of the current policies, the goal of achieving carbon peaking by 2030 in Suzhou City may not be realized as scheduled. This novel carbon emission prediction model built was validated to provide a scientific basis for low-carbon urban development. This study presents an important reference value for predicting carbon emissions and formulating emission reduction measures in other cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CO2 emissions from fossil energy have caused global climate problems and threatened human survival. However, there are few studies on the spatiotemporal distribution and driving factors of carbon emissions. This paper takes the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration as the research object and analyzes the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon dioxide emissions and their driving factors from 2000 to 2017. First, a series of preprocessing, such as resample, interpolation, and image clipping, are conducted on the CO2 emission data and nighttime light remote sensing images. Second, the dynamic time wrapping (DTW) and hierarchical clustering algorithms were involved in manipulating the CO2 emission data. Consequently, the cities' and CO2 emissions' time series were classified into four categories and three stages separately. Finally, the geographical detector model (GDM) and geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) are coupled to evaluate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and quantify the driving factors. The results show the following: (1) The spatiotemporal distribution of CO2 emissions has spatial consistency from 2000 to 2017. High-emission areas are concentrated in economically developed areas such as Shanghai, Suzhou, and Wuxi. The results are consistent with previous research. (2) Regional aggregation is a revealed new trend. CO2 emissions in the target urban areas are gradually converging into economic center cities and diverse class cities, e.g., Shanghai and Ningbo. (3) In cities of different economic development levels, the driving factors of CO2 emissions are different. The secondary sector and urban infrastructure dominate in the early stages of developed cities. On top of that, the influence of the tertiary industry is more significant in the later development stages. According to the results, in the urban development process, humans should not only pursue the increase in speed but also pay attention to the negative impact of the economic development process on the ecological environment. Besides, since the spatiotemporal characteristics and dominant factors of urban carbon emissions are different in each stage of development, the formulation of carbon reduction policies should be associated with urban features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between urbanization, economic growth, industrial transformation, technological change, public services, demographical change, urban and natural environmental changes, and carbon emissions using a dataset of 182 prefecture-level cities in China between 2001 and 2010. Specifically, this paper differs from previous studies in two aspects. First, the extant literature has focused on how economic processes accompanying rapid urbanization affect carbon emissions in urban areas but gives little attention to the other dimensions of urbanization, including social and environmental changes, which may have important effects on carbon emissions. We assessed the effects of 17 key processes accompanying urbanization in a full range of economic, social, and environmental dimensions on carbon dioxide emissions in urban areas. The results showed that social processes accompanied with rapid urbanization had distinct effects on carbon emissions, compared to economic and environmental processes. Specifically, improvement in public services, indicated by education and cultural developments, reduces the increase in carbon emissions during urbanization, while economic growth and urban construction reinforces the growth in carbon emissions. Second, we examined the impact of various urbanization processes on carbon dioxide emissions using a unique dataset of 182 prefecture-level cities that covers a wide span of regions in China. The results of our analyses on the city level have important implications for the formulation of comprehensive policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emission in urban areas, focusing on different urbanization processes in economic, social, and environmental phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]