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[Display omitted] • Establishes an integrated dynamic emission assessment model by coupling end-use energy model and system dynamics model. • Explores the dynamic interaction mechanism between macrolevel and microlevel factors as well as technical options. • Commercial buildings will probably hit the emission peak at 1.28Gt CO 2 in 2037 under the BAU scenario. • Lighting and cooling will contribute over 70% to the carbon emission growth. • Technological progress, clean energy, and electrification rate play significant roles in boosting emission peak and peaking time. Carbon-mitigation in the commercial building sector is critical to carbon peaking and carbon neutral commitment. However, there has been little scientific focus on long-term evolutionary trajectories and peak path in this sector. This study innovatively develops an integrated dynamic emission assessment model (IDEAM) by combining the system dynamics model with the bottom-up end-use energy model. Moreover, the IDEAM is combined with the scenario analysis approach to model the dynamic evolution of Chinese commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060. The results show that commercial building carbon emissions will peak at 1.28 Gigatons (Gt) of CO 2 in 2037 under the baseline scenario and will advance toward 2029 with an emissions peak of 0.98 Gt CO 2 under the low-carbon scenario. Cooling and lighting are the two end-uses that contribute most to the growth of carbon emissions at over 70%. These two end-uses indicate different carbon-abatement potentials across climate zones. Sensitivity analysis reveals that promoting technological progress, increasing the share of clean energy, and improving low-carbon awareness are major ways to facilitate the early realization of carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. This study provides a deeper understanding of possible emission pathways and could assist policy-makers in devising scientific carbon mitigation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contributions of different end-use activities to carbon intensity changes in global commercial building operations in (a) 2000–2010 and (c) 2010–2019; (b) impacts of different end-use activities on decarbonizing the operational carbon intensity across different countries in 2000–2019. [Display omitted] • The carbon intensity of commercial building operations in 16 economies declined 1.9 % yr−1 in 2000–2019. • Emission factors and industrial structure were the key to decarbonizing the building operations. • Energy intensity (e.g., heating: −14.3 kgCO 2 /m2/yr) has pushed global decarbonization since the 2010 s. • Decarbonization level in 16 economies was 230.3 MtCO 2 /yr with a decarbonization efficiency of 10.1%; • Electricity decarbonization will be critical to achieving global carbon neutrality in commercial buildings. Building operations will be the most critical step in completing the "last mile" of global carbon neutrality. To seek the best practical path to decarbonize commercial building operations, this study assesses the decarbonization progress of commercial building operations in 16 countries over the last two decades considering socioeconomic, technical, climatic and end-use factors through the decomposing structural decomposition method. The results reveal that (1) the average carbon intensity of commercial building operations in 16 countries has maintained an annual decline of 1.94% throughout the period 2000–2019, and emission factors and industrial structures were generally the key to decarbonizing commercial building operations; (2) energy intensity effects have started to promote global decarbonization in commercial building operations since 2010, with contributions from space heating [-14.33 kg of carbon dioxide per square meter per year (kgCO 2 /m2/yr)], service lighting (-5.29 kgCO 2 /m2/yr), appliances and others (-2.85 kgCO 2 /m2/yr), and space cooling (-1.24 kgCO 2 /m2/yr); and (3) the total decarbonization of commercial building operations worldwide was 230.28 mega-tons of carbon dioxide per yr, with a decarbonization efficiency of 10.05% in 2001–2019. Moreover, the robustness of this decarbonization assessment is tested using the typical index decomposition analysis and the decarbonization strategies of global commercial building operations are reviewed. Overall, this study assesses the global historical progress in decarbonizing commercial building operations and closes the relevant gap, and it helps plan the stepwise carbon neutral pathway of future global buildings by the mid-century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(a–f) Changes of carbon reductions of commercial building operations at the provincial level and (g) the difference with the nation-based results (2001–2016). [Display omitted] • Provincial carbon intensity of commercial building operations grew 2.88 % yr−1 in 2001–2016. • Northeast and north China mitigated the most in carbon intensity and emissions, respectively. • Southwest China showed the highest ratio of carbon reductions to carbon emissions at 29.53%. • The total reduction of China's commercial building operation was 1.38 GtCO 2 in 2001–2016. • Annual provincial reductions peaked in 2013, one year earlier than the national result. The growing energy consumption in commercial building operations has slowed the pace of carbon reduction in the building sector, which has hindered China's movement towards peaking emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by mid-century. Considering the technical, socio-economic, climatic, and behavioral factors, this study evaluates the carbon reduction changes of commercial building operations in China's 30 provinces during the period 2001–2016. An assessment framework of the reduction intensity, amount, and efficiency has been built by carbon intensity decomposition. It shows that (1) the average provincial carbon intensity of commercial building operations kept rising by 2.88% per year from 2000 to 2016; (2) provinces of northeast and north China, respectively, took the lead in reduction intensity and amount at 17.09 kg of carbon dioxide per square meter and 73.79 megatonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO 2) from 2001 to 2016. Meanwhile, the greatest efficiency of carbon reduction was seen in provinces of southwest China with the highest reductions-emissions ratio being 29.53%; (3) compared to the national level results, the annual carbon reductions based on provincial units hit their peak one year earlier at 167.35 MtCO 2 in 2013, although similar emission drivers have been observed. Moreover, effective practices by local governments have been summarized for energy efficiency promotion in commercial building operations. Overall, this study makes a reference for other economies to assess the historical carbon reduction in the building operation, which provides policymakers with insights into balanced and targeted emission reduction strategies towards a low-carbon transition in commercial building sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]