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• A new hybrid prediction system is proposed to predict wind speed. • Simplex and chaotic mapping optimization cuckoo algorithm are proposed. • An uncertainty prediction model based on Monte Carlo method is proposed. • The energy theory is proposed to optimize the decomposition mode number. • Theories proofs and experiments verify the effectiveness of the model. Wind energy has strong volatility and intermittent. Accurate wind speed prediction can not only improve the safety of the system, but also optimize dispatch and reduce economic losses. However, previous studies tend to ignore the influence of virtual components and lack effective identification of wind speed characteristics and a robust interval prediction scheme, resulting in poor results. To bridge these gaps, this paper proposes an energy theory method to solve the problem of modal over-decomposition. The study also combines effective modal recognition, uses different prediction methods according to modal characteristics and proposes a set of new optimization algorithms to improve nonlinear prediction capabilities. Finally, based on Monte Carlo theory, a set of interval prediction schemes that can adapt to different error characteristics are proposed. Under the verification of wind speed data in Changma, China and Sotavento, Spain. The mean absolute percentage error of wind speed deterministic prediction reaches 4.22% and 5.82%, respectively. The coverage rate of wind speed uncertainty prediction meets different confidence requirements, and the average interval width is still less than 2.5 m/s at 90% confidence. The results show that the forecasting system proposed in this paper is significantly better than all the comparative forecasting schemes, which can reduce the risk of fluctuations and improve the stability and safety of the wind power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents an evolutionary algorithm for wind speed reconstruction from synoptic pressure patterns. The algorithm operates in a search space formed by grids of pressure measures, and must classify the different situations into classes, in such a way that a measure of wind speed in a given point is minimized among patterns assigned to the same class. Then, each class is assigned a mean wind speed and direction, so the wind speed reconstruction is possible for a new grid of synoptic pressures. In this paper we present the problem model and the specific description of the evolutionary algorithm proposed to solve the problem. We also show the good performance of the proposed method in the reconstruction of the average wind speed in six wind towers in Spain. The proposed method is applicable to wind speed reconstruction or reconstruction of wind missing data of wind series, specially when there is no other variable or related measure available. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]