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Abstract: Snow cover is a common and relatively stable land cover condition in winter for cold north regions in China. Snow cover has significant effects on water and heat transfers in frozen soil; it needs to be considered in the study of frozen soil water–heat coupled movements. On the basis of previous research results and physical process analysis of water and heat movements in snow cover and soil, a snow cover–soil union water–heat coupled movements model is established in this paper. The numerical simulation was conducted by using a finite difference method. The results indicate that the simulated values have a similar trend to the measured values and the numerical simulation had big relative errors. However, the average absolute errors of the total and liquid moisture content in frozen soil were all less than 4%, and that of the frozen soil temperature was 1.37 °C. The errors of the numerical simulation were still within the acceptable range. Thus, the snow cover–soil union water–heat coupled movement model constructed in this paper is rational. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Some forecasting models have been developed, each has its own application condition. The grey model is used for small sample forecasting, but until now there is no reasonable explanation for the reason why it is not used for large sample. Therefore, in this paper, matrix perturbation theory is employed to explain the reason. The results of practical numerical examples from previous works demonstrate that the small sample usually has more accuracy than the large sample when establishing grey model in theory. Furthermore, we used the grey model with small samples to analyse the trend of syphilis incidence in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper describes a simplified analytical method that considers postinstallation normal stress, normal stress due to soil dilation, and grouting pressure when calculating the maximum shear stress of the nail-soil interface. Systematic test results from two previous publications were used to verify the accuracy of the proposed method. The Hong Kong design method was also used to determine the maximum shear stress of the nail-soil interface. These analyses confirmed that the experimental data were more accurately predicted by the proposed analytical method. An extensive parametric study was conducted to examine the effects of several key parameters on the maximum shear stress. It was observed that when there was no grouting pressure, maximum shear stress increased with increasing overburden pressure, failure surface distance, dilation angle, or decreased drill hole radius. Analysis using the proposed model also demonstrates that grouting and overburden pressures share an interactional effect. The larger the grouting pressure, the greater the influence of the overburden pressure; and, consequently, the larger the maximum shear stress at the nail-soil interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the April 9 of 2000, a gigantic rapid rock slide-debris avalanche occurred in Bomi, Tibet. Some 280-300 × 10 m of material travelled 10 km within 10 min and dammed the Yigong River, forming a 2.9 × 10 m³ barrier lake. Wind tunnel testing was undertaken to determine the aerodynamic parameters involved, from the initial rock slide-fall to its point of impact. The paper reports the numerical analyses undertaken and discusses the significance of the air-cushion effect. It is concluded that Yigong rapid rock slide-debris avalanche 'flew' in the air for about 12.9 s from its detachment from the source to its collision with the floor of the Zamunong gully at 3,317 m asl. The velocity of the avalanche mass at the point of detachment was some 81.8 m/s and the collision velocity approximately 117 m/s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical model to simulate morphological changes in alluvial channels due to bank erosion. A method for the simulation of bank erosion is established. This is incorporated into a 3-D mathematical model for turbulent flow and non-uniform, non-equilibrium sediment transport. This model is applied to simulate morphological changes in the Shishou bend of the middle Yangtze River in China, where serious bank erosions occurred during the last two decades. The double-layer sediment structure of the riverbank on the middle Yangtze River is taken into account in the bank erosion module. Both cohesive and non-cohesive bank material in the different layers are considered. The bank erosion module also includes other factors affecting the rate of bank erosion, such as the longitudinal length of failed bank, the thickness of each layer in the double-layer structure, and the erosion-resisting effect of cohesive material from the top layer of failed bank. A locally-adaptive grid system is proposed to efficiently simulate the lateral migration of alluvial channel due to bank erosion. The predictive capability of the 3-D model is examined by laboratory data. Simulated processes of bank erosion agree with field observations in the Shishou bend during the period of October 1996–October 1998, and the bank erosion module plays a significant role in simulating morphological changes of the study reach. In addition, the equivalent channel-forming discharge, which is defined as a constant discharge that can create the same amount of bank erosion in an alluvial channel as that created by natural runoff processes during the same period of time, is proposed to improve calculation efficiency for feasibility studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Rainfall depth (or intensity) of the same frequency should follow a non-decreasing relationship with rainfall duration. However, due to the use of finite samples and sampling error, rainfall frequency analysis could yield rainfall intensity (depth)–frequency (IDF, DDF) curves of different durations that might intersect among them. Results of this kind violate physical reality and it is more likely to occur when rainfall record length gets shorter. To ensure the compliance of the physical reality, this paper applied the scale-invariant approach, in conjunction with constrained regression analysis, to circumvent intersections in rainfall IDF or DDF curves. Rainfall data of various durations at rain gauge in Hong Kong are used to demonstrate the procedure. Numerical investigation indicates that the proposed procedure yields more reasonable results than those based on the conventional frequency analysis, especially when only a small sample of data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]