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There has been a growing focus on uncertainty as a distinct concept in the risk literature. This paper is concerned with how those involved in the design and implementation of climate change policy conceptualize risk and uncertainty. Based on interviews with policy and industry elites in Australia, China and the UK, it finds that participants did not distinguish between "risk" and "uncertainty" in their conceptualization of climate threats. For the majority of them, politics was the most significant source of risk and uncertainty in climate policy, but delegation of otherwise political decisions to the market was seen as the best solution. The conclusion suggests that the conceptual distinction between risk and uncertainty is less important, for policy and industry elites, than the need to develop mechanisms that account for both persistent scientific uncertainties as well as interpretive and moral ambiguities in climate policy design and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Arid and semiarid China have experienced multiple arid phases throughout the Quaternary, and over the past five decades, there have been several periods with relatively high or low rates of desertification and rehabilitation. The causes of these changes and their historical trends have been debated by scientists because of their potentially huge significance for China, as well as for the global ecology and food supply. This paper reviews recent studies of desertification in different regions of arid and semiarid China. In general, the results of systematic monitoring, and analyses of the causes of desertification and the contemporaneous human impacts, suggest that desertification in China has been primarily caused by climate change, and particularly by strong wind regimes (with high sand transport potential) accompanied by decreased spring precipitation. Unfortunately, although numerous scientists have claimed that desertification in China is primarily due to human impacts; there is surprisingly little unassailable evidence to support this claim. The review presented in this paper show that desertification in China is likely to be controlled by climate change and geomorphological processes, even though human impacts have undeniably exacerbated their effects. Our arguments for both climate change and human activity as factors responsible for the observed changes in desertification rely primarily on inferences based on correlations between trends, thus future research must seek stronger and more direct evidence for the causal relationships that we have proposed as possibilities. This improved information is essential to provide a firm basis for future policy decisions on how best to combat desertification. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Previous studies have examined the projected climate types in China by 2100. This study identified the emergence time of climate shifts at a 1◦ scale over China from 1990 to 2100 and investigated the temporal evolution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications computed from CMIP5 multi-model outputs. Climate shifts were detected in transition regions (7%-8% of China's land area) by 2010, including rapid replacement of mixed forest (Dwb) by deciduous forest (Dwa) over Northeast China, strong shrinkage of alpine climate type (ET) on the Tibetan Plateau, weak northward expansion of subtropical winterdry climate (Cwa) over Southeast China, and contraction of oceanic climate (Cwb) in Southwest China. Under all future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, the reduction of Dwb in Northeast China and ET on the Tibetan Plateau was projected to accelerate substantially during 2010-30, and half of the total area occupied by ET in 1990 was projected to be redistributed by 2040. Under the most severe scenario (RCP8.5), sub-polar continental winter dry climate over Northeast China would disappear by 2040-50, ET on the Tibetan Plateau would disappear by 2070, and the climate types in 35.9% and 50.8% of China's land area would change by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The results presented in this paper indicate imperative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China's ecoregions in future decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution (50 km×50 km) over China. This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES. A biogeochemical model "Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model (AVIM2)" was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century. Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production (NPP) of vegetation. Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time. The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts. Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems. Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types. When the extreme events happen, vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest, woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest. Climate change would not always be negative. It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term. However, in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]