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This paper describes how Senator Molan sees Australia's future unfolding over the next century, including likely opportunities and challenges ahead. While Australia is now the world's 14th most economically powerful nation, it has only been able to focus on its economic development because, heretofore, it has not had to provide for its own defence. With United States' power diminishing and China's power increasing, Australia's historic grand strategy is becoming unsustainable both militarily and economically. To craft a way forward for the next century, Australia needs develop a national security strategy and should do so urgently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political economy impacts and influences a state's military strategy. This article focuses on how the integration of the US political economy in the Indo-Pacific drives US Navy officers and the broader national security state to establish the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). Investigating the strategic thought of senior Naval officers shows that they think far beyond military threats and engage with the United States and the Indo-Pacific political economy. Even as the US Navy competes with China's military, its FOIP strategy benefits corporate elites in both China and the US, whose cooperation creates a mutually supportive economic relationship. This argument leads to the finding that the US hegemony in the region is a strategy that avoids a bipolar 'New Cold War' of an entirely de-coupled US and China. The FOIP supported by the US Navy continues to integrate China into regional and global economies, even as it attempts to push back against China by gathering allies and partners. The emphasis on international political economy highlights how the region is a network of 'patchwork' relations, where states rely on one another for economic prosperity. Through investigating speeches and strategic papers from US Naval officials, this paper demonstrates how the US competes and cooperates with China in the context of relations in the region that are in constant flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the four main military strategies of the People's Republic of China towards the security architecture of East and South China Sea under President Xi Jinping. These strategies cover a region that has been under the US alliance system's security umbrella since the Cold War. This paper demonstrates that the People's Republic of China, under the current leadership, seeks to reorder the regional security architecture to its favour by leveraging military modernisation, influence operations and diplomatic-economic power to remove the influence of the US and its allies over the East and South China Sea. The present study argues that the successful conclusion of the rising power's strategies over the East and South China Sea will translate the current geopolitical rivalry into a power transition to the detriment of the established power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan occupies an elevated role in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and hosts its so-called flagship project, the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Existing literature has often interpreted this project from a geopolitical perspective, as a vehicle through which a rising China projects influence on a peripheral country and advances its own centrality in international affairs. While such motivations certainly played a major role in getting the project off the ground, they are not the sole determinant of its design, or the heated controversies it triggered within Pakistan. This paper seeks to capture both dimensions by analysing the development of CPEC, and the handling of the conflicts it sparked, through a lens of overlapping centre–periphery relations: one between China and Pakistan at the international level, and one between Islamabad and peripheral regions and groups within the country. I argue that this model best captures the pivotal position and resulting agency of national governments in shaping local BRI implementations. It also shows how the BRI is not a straight case of Chinese influence radiating outwards; rather, contestation by local actors in turn forces adaptations in Chinese foreign and security policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's growing focus on African peace and security has generated discussions on its longstanding foreign policy principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of African countries and most of that growing body of research have argued that China is doing away with its foreign policy principle. Drawing its conclusions from a careful analysis of China's security engagement with African countries, this paper argues that, forced to deal with various African crises, China has been pragmatically adaptive. This adaptive pragmatism has allowed Beijing to get involved in Africa's peace and security landscape without overtly compromising its traditional posture on non-interference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the UK's future Indo-Pacific policy by looking into the newly published Integrated Review (IR) and comparing it with the French and German policy papers. The "Indo-Pacific tilt" is one of the most highlighted themes in the IR, but a reading of the review suggests that the UK remains Euro-Atlantic centered when it comes to defense and security policy. It is only after the internal and external security issues are addressed that the UK pursues its "global interest" through diplomacy and trade. Hence, while the geopolitical and economic importance of the Indo-Pacific is acknowledged, and the stance of the UK towards the region appears more ambitious and confident than that of France and Germany, it remains a question as to the degree to which the UK may commit to the Indo-Pacific. The UK defines China as a "systemic competitor" rather than a "threat," suggesting that while the challenges China poses may be comprehensive and profound, they are not taken as immediate and urgent. This designation is peculiar. On the one hand, it differs from the US policy, which sees China (and Russia) as threats to its national security. On the other hand, compared with the European counterparts, the UK is the only one that calls out China, expressing a stronger will to counter China when necessary. Therefore, it is suggested that the post-Brexit UK is likely to side with the US in the US-China-EU triangular relations. Being very much a middle power, however, the UK's space for maneuver is limited. It pledges to compete against China and seek the latter's cooperation simultaneously, but such a stance requires power and will that the country may be lacking. The deployment of HMS Queen Elizabeth to the Indo-Pacific, for instance, has been described as an expression of the UK's commitment to the rules-based international order. Yet Prime Minister Johnson's emphasis on not antagonizing anyone and the decision that the Carrier Strike Group will not sail through the Taiwan Strait indicates a concern about China and consequently difficulty implementing the "co-opetition" strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper seeks to provide an answer to the question which has hitherto not been significantly explored in the relevant academic scholarship: Why did China block India's (and other countries) attempts to designate Masood Azhar – head of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM/Jaish) as terrorist under UN Security Council 1267 committee rules? According to the extant literature, China's actions are explained broadly by India-China rivalry and India-Pakistan rivalry resulting in a strategic and 'all weather partnership between China and Pakistan against their common enemy India. This study argues that China's actions are also explained by its New (Asian) Security Concept and the ensuing China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), domestic (in)stability in Pakistan and China's geo-strategic interests. China is deeply perturbed by the socio-economic-political instability in Pakistan. China was concerned that if Masood Azhar was designated as a terrorist under UNSC 1267 Committee rules, Jaish and other terrorist organizations would take up arms against the Pakistani state (as in the past) which will create further instability in Pakistan and undermine CPEC and China's geo-strategic interests. Thus, the paper provides a more comprehensive and nuanced grasp of China's reluctance to designate Masood Azhar as a terrorist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After being a neutral actor for decades in the complex South China Sea (SCS) territorial disputes, Indonesia has seen itself compelled by China's assertiveness to become firmer about protecting its territorial sovereignty around the Natuna Islands (NI). Jakarta is alarmed by China's claims that it has undeniable historical fishing rights in the NI territorial waters because they undermine Indonesia's territorial sovereignty. Our analysis loosely adopts the securitization conceptual framework proposed by the Copenhagen School to reveal that Jakarta swiftly securitized the NI issue between 2014 and 2016. Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, this paper unpacks how the Indonesian printed mainstream media discussed the NI in recent years. By the end of 2016, the Indonesian media portrayed China's claims that it has historical fishing rights in the NI territorial waters as the most urgent national security threat to Indonesia, i.e. the NI issue was securitized. This analysis shows that the Indonesian people accepted Jakarta's security discourse, i.e. Jakarta had successfully securitized China's claims over the NI territorial waters. This paper makes a new contribution to the securitization literature by simultaneously analysing the Indonesian news and social media outlets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to find the dynamism in Afghanistan's relations with Central Asian states. It is explained that prosperity without security is not possible and ongoing imbroglio in Afghanistan is directly affecting Central Asian states. The Central Asian states are surrounded by China, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. These states (with significant influence of India and Turkey) are the key regional players and their socioeconomic and political interests are converged on various issues. The political conditions in Afghanistan would directly impact the interests of Central Asian states. Drug trafficking, illegal migration, religious extremism, a ramified corrupt network, porous border and terrorism are subverting peace in Afghanistan and its spillover effects are dangerous for Central Asian states. The military and security situation in Afghanistan has a direct impact on the production and transport of energy from Central Asia to the rest of the world. The response of the regional organizations, particularly the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), with certain commonalities, towards these issues often contrasts with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This paper focuses on the efforts of major powers (Russia, China, and the US) along with neighbouring countries in the peacebuilding in Afghanistan to avoid its spillover effects over Central Asian states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the application of the non-interference principle in the context of China’s security policy in Africa, to determine the extent to which we are witnessing an evolution in the application of this principle. Indeed, as seen with the recent opening of the military base in Djibouti or with China’s contribution to peace talks in South Sudan, it would appear that the non-intervention principle is undergoing a course reversal. This paper will argue that, in spite of these apparent shifts, there has been no fundamental change to the application of this principle. To make this point, this article applies Ren’s typology, which characterises three levels of nuance in the forms that the application of non-interference has taken in practice. This typology is then applied in a comparative manner across the four following components of China’s security policy in Africa: peacekeeping operations; military cooperation; naval power projection; and crisis management mediation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan is abandoning its once unidirectional foreign security policy towards the USA, two notable examples of which are its increasingly comprehensive and substantial security relations with the Philippines and Vietnam. Putting these burgeoning Japanese security partnerships front and center, this paper asks the following questions: What are the characteristics of Japan's maturing security partnerships with the Philippines and Vietnam? What factors have driven and enabled their recent emergence? What promotes and constrains their future development? What do these maturing Japanese non-US security partnerships reveal about Japan's direction as a security actor in and beyond East Asia? The paper finds that these two Japanese security bilaterals, which have six basic characteristics in common, are fundamentally driven by the contemporary shift in the balance of power and the strategic challenge that China's emerging maritime power and ambitions present Japan. It moreover argues that the substantiation of these security partnerships have been pursued under American auspices and further invited by Japanese nationalism and security legislative reforms. Notwithstanding these encouraging factors, however, domestic and geo-strategic constraints and counter incentives lead this paper to expect further substantiation, but limited military significance in the future of these security partnerships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrorism being the primary threat to China's national security therefore counter terrorism has turned out to be the main point of China's domestic and foreign policy. The major terrorist threat that China faces is posed by Uyghur separatist fighters of Xinjiang. They claim and fight for a separate independent state called "East Turkistan". The Xinjiang issue is the major anxiety and the focal point of China's war on terror. To stop extremism and terrorism in Xinjiang China has adopted a multi-dimensional approach i.e. Strike Hard Campaign, diplomatic actions to isolate terrorists and get the help of other countries, religious, economic and social antiterrorist policies to eradicate the roots of terrorism from society. China is also cooperating with the countries including US, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asian Republics, and many others in fighting against terrorism. From the platform of Shanghai Cooperation Organization China is also playing important role in counterterrorism. China major interest in war on terror is to stop the spread of extremism and terrorism within her borders particularly in Xinjiang province, as well as to make sure that neighbouring countries not become safe haven and base camp for the Uyghur militants. The main objective of this paper is to analyses the phenomena of terrorism in Xinjiang and China's role in war on terror. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the evolution of Sino-Japanese rivalry in the security sphere concentrating on the Chinese perspective, and placing it within the wider context of complex interstate rivalry between China, Japan and the United States. From a theoretical viewpoint, this research contributes to the literature on interstate rivalry from multiparty perspective, which has been overlooked in existing research. China–Japan–US complex interstate rivalry includes elements of positional, spatial and ideological rivalry simultaneously. When rivalries mix two or more rivalry types, they become more difficult to resolve. The two broad trends of China's military build-up and deepening US–Japan alliance evolve in tandem intensifying rivalry dynamics and increasing positional elements of rivalry. There are many indications on various levels that for China, controlling Japan's international ambitions has become less important and more attention is paid to ways in which Japan helps the United States in reaching its objectives in Asia through their alliance agreement. The cases analysed to display complex interstate rivalry include the Taiwan question, territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, and the North Korean nuclear issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The centrality of conceptual analysis has been underlined and acknowledged by scientists worldwide. This research discusses a new concept of security, identifying the relationship between state security and threats, labelled state security relation. The main emphasis is on a novel notion in the security paradigm, dependent state security, which is grounded by the case study of Chinese state security relationship with the Pakistani terrorism threat. The paper also highlights some of the practices that led to the development of the concept and the threat response strategies implied in the case of dependent state security relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD, hereinafter referred to as Quad), which had come into existence in 2007, ceased following the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the withdrawal of Australia during Kevin Rudd's tenure as Prime Minister. However, on the side lines of the 2017 ASEAN Summit, the subject of a structure that would facilitate peace, stability and development in the Indo-Pacific region which, is supposedly under threat due to China's assertive behaviour, came up for discussions once again between leaders of US, Japan, Australia and India. The revival of the Quad (colloquially termed as "Quad 2.0"), after a hiatus of nearly a decade was viewed with concern by the Chinese media, which termed the grouping as a possible first step towards the formation of an "Asian NATO". The Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, however was more dismissive, comparing the idea of reviving the Quad to "foam in the ocean, destined to dissipate soon". Against the backdrop of a globalised and intertwined economy, where economic interdependence appears to be the norm in deciding national interests, this paper examines the likely future trajectory of this grouping and attempts to determine which of the two assessments is more plausible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses Japan's role in Korean security using the quasi-alliance model. Developed by Professor Victor Cha, the quasi-alliance model to analyze the security relationship between Japan and the Republic of Korea, two states that remain unallied despite sharing a common ally. Cha defined the quasi-alliance model as the triangular relationship between two states that are not allied, but share a third party as a common ally. A key assumption is that the third state serves as the great-power protector of the two states, and therefore exit opportunities for the two are limited. While historical issues affected relations between Tokyo and Seoul, American security policies were the primary determinant of cooperation between Japan and Korea. American policy changes produced distinct abandonment or entrapment responses within the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK security alliances: shared perceptions yielded cooperation, while differing views produced friction. This paper analyzes America's East Asia policies during the Bush and Obama administrations to assess Japanese and Korean reactions. Analyzed through the quasi-alliance model, American policies produced asymmetric responses in Japan and Korea, inhibiting security cooperation between Tokyo and Seoul. Diverging views of China exacerbated inherent friction between Korea and Japan. Thus, Japan will play a limited role in Korean security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Singapore's rude awakening to independence has led to the creation of one of the most important and strategic entrepôts in the Asia-Pacific. The country's limited territorial lands and natural resources, combined with huge per capita income, high population density and sensitive racial mix, make Singapore the quintessential pragmatic trading state of the twenty-first century. This paper examines how Singapore has embedded itself at the centre of regional and global trade systems by exploiting various forms of free trade activities including multilateral, regional and bilateral FTAs that underpin its security and survival. It argues that in order to maintain the city-state's geo-economic and geo-political viability, the Singaporean government has progressively linked its security interests with its multilevel free trade activities. Given the ‘vulnerability fetish’ and siege mentality that confront Singaporean leaders and policymakers, the pursuit of economic development via free trade has become the heart of its national security policy and strategy. The paper concludes by arguing that the enhancement and preservation of Singapore's survival as a sovereign nation-state demands a strategic utilization of FTAs with different trade partners, especially with regional and trans-regional powers such as the United States and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper starts from the assumption that geostrategic and security interests alone are not sufficient to explain China’s foreign policy choices. It argues that ideas about what China’s role as an actor in the increasingly globalised international system should be, and about world order in general, have a deep influence on China’s foreign policy decision-making process. Taking the North Korean issue as a case study, the paper postulates that China is currently engaged in a search for a ‘new’ identity as a global player. China’s actor identity is composed of various partly contradictory role conceptions. National roles derived from China’s internal system structures and its historical past lead to continuity in foreign policy, while the ‘new’ roles resultant from China’s rise to global power require an adaptation of its foreign policy principles. In the case of its relationship with North Korea, China’s foreign policy is oscillating between the two roles of ‘socialist power’ – as thus comrade-in-arms with its socialist neighbour – and ‘responsible great power’, which leads to it being expected to comply with international norms, and thus to condemn North Korea’s nuclear provocations and related actions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The security relations of states have always been conducted and observed through a realist lens, i.e. power politics, military alliances or competitions. The last two decades have changed dimensions of state politics in a profound way. The phenomena of globalization and war on terror with subsequent shifts in economic relations among states of different region are bound to have effect on Chinese security policy as well. This paper aims to understand the nexus between questions of traditional and non-traditional security in Chinese policy of cooperation. The regional relationship of China with its neighbours has been contentious and reserve in past. However, since the 1990s, the dynamics of socio-economic and political environment in East Asia is also changing. It is thus necessary to analyze regional and bilateral security cooperation of China comprehensively. This paper therefore explains it evaluates policy coordination through bilateral and multilateral channels against the background of overall security-political relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the Constitution of China, the Communist Party (CPC) does not merely play a leadership role in the political field, but also in the legal arena. Legislation must reflect the Party's outlook and achieve its policies, including any legal provisions governing particular systems, such as arrangements for the death penalty. After introducing the relationship between the CPC and legislation, this article will discuss the shift in the CPC's approach to human rights and changes to the death penalty system in the Maoist, Deng Xiaoping and post-Deng eras. In the Maoist era, the government rejected human rights, but its policy on execution – at least on paper – was cautious and even stricter than during the other eras; the cpc recognised and accepted human rights in the Deng era, but emphasised national security and stability. As a result, individual human rights were not fully taken into account. Execution was considered an important measure to control crime and the scope of the relevant legislation was expanded. Post-Deng, human rights have developed gradually. Human rights protection has been incorporated into the Constitution and individual human rights have become more valued, but the CPC still focuses on state security, development and stability, and has not valued the right to life to the same extent as the right to subsistence. Although steps to reform the death penalty are being taken, 46 crimes are still punishable by death. The CPC should change its outlook and focus on the right to life, and abolish the death penalty de facto and de jure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid economic growth, China has become its neighbours’ largest trade partner in the twenty-first century. At the same time, the growth of China’s military and its assertiveness are raising concerns among its neighbours that China’s rise will pose a threat to them. In this context, will China’s neighbours—Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and South Korea—view China positively or negatively? By using statistical analysis, this paper aims to explore whether individuals are more affected by their economic position or national security concerns when they view China. The findings in this article suggest that individuals’ security concerns have stronger associations with their attitudes toward China than economic conditions. Specifically, individuals’ views on China’s military growth and territorial disputes had negative effects on their attitudes toward China. On the other hand, economic interests had weaker associations with individuals’ views of China than security concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to understand and explain the evolutions as well as predict the future directions of bilateral relations between the United States and China has become an imperative task for both policy makers and academic scholars. Borrowing insights from neoclassical realism, this paper suggests a three-stage, perceptual model of ‘threat–interest’ to explore the dynamics of Sino–US relations from 1949 to 2015. It argues that the nature of US–China relations, either cooperation or competition, is mainly shaped by the perceptions of leaders regarding security threats and economic interests between the two nations. How to manage their perceptions regarding each other and how to find a balance between cooperation and competition are the key issues for leaders in both the United States and China to manage bilateral relations in the future. The next decade or two may be the best or the worst times for US–China relations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Northeast Asia has traditionally been a region rife with historical and political conflicts that display characteristics that seem to follow a path of development different from other regions. As one goes through the massive inventory of international relations theory, it is still uneasy to find an explanation that befits developments in the region. This paper examines the hegemonic stability and evaluates its effectiveness in explaining developments in Northeast Asia, particularly the rise of China. In addition, this paper seeks to test the hegemonic stability theory by readdressing US role in the region and challenges to the regional status quo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent formation of the field of security demographics has drawn attention to the importance of population as a security issue. For example, Hudson and den Boer argue that the populations of Asia's largest countries are a threat not because of size but because of as unusual composition - excess males. Their argument is based on the observation that, after thirty years of population limitation policies, the Chinese population has a distinct gender bias. There are millions more males than females, creating what has been dubbed a 'bachelor army.' Hudson and den Boer posit that the problems caused by this 'bachelor army' may lead to war. This paper argues that fear about China's population is not new but has shaped the way China has been portrayed since the foundation of the PRC. The large size of the Chinese population was originally seen as a weakness likely to bring down the government. However during the 1950s and 60s the industrious and organized nature of the Chinese population earned the Chinese people the moniker 'blue ants.' It seems more than coincidental that the development of recent fears about China's population coincides with the emergence of China as a major economic power. After analyzing the development of the gender ratio imbalance, this paper concludes that the re-surfacing of fear about China's male population continues a tradition of Orientalist stereotypes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the expansion and deepening of globalization, as well as China's entry into the World Trade Organization, the nexus between economic growth and national security has gained prominence in China since the mid-1990s. How to ensure socio-economic security while maintaining its robust economic growth is now the most serious concern of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Chinese government. This paper addresses three questions: first, it explores why and how the transformation of economic growth and national security as two separate logics to a single domain evolved conceptually over the past two decades in China; second, what kinds of insecurities are generated by China's robust economic growth coupled with the expansion and deepening of globalization, and in which way and to what extent do they challenge China's government: third, what kinds of mechanisms or policy instruments have been adopted by China's government to address emerging economic insecurities while maintaining robust economic growth. The paper concludes that in the case of China, globalization has posed new challenges to economic security, but given that economic insecurity has its particular salience in individual countries, national institutional adjustment or adaptation becomes increasingly important for each country to govern in the interests of economic security while maintaining economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, the territorial dispute over the Diaoyu, or Senkaku, Islands in the East China Sea has flamed up between China and Japan. This conflict deserves further attention because of its potential of being the spark to unleash a Sino-Japanese firefight. However, this was not the first time the two Northeast Asian great power rivals have at least verbally fought over who is the rightful owner to the resource-rich archipelago and surrounding waters. The controversy can be traced from post-World War II, over the 1970s and 1990s, to today. The entire process of this largely verbal fistfight can be best understood through the Copenhagen School's securitization and de-securitization concepts. Japan, being in the role of the administrator, naturally more often desecuritized the issue in the past than did China, while China mostly strategically securitized the dispute. For the current round of escalation over the dispute, interestingly, Japan acted as initial securitizing actor. This paper aims to contextualize the instances in which the territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands has been either securitized or desecuritized by either party. The analysis adds nuances to securitization theory, especially concerning the role of societal uprisings in securitizing a dispute such as the one at hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ebb and flow of coping with Australia’s identity dilemma as a European settler society located on the geographical edge of Asia leads to bouts of agonising, excitement and temporising. This has been given particular cogency with the power shift underway from the trans-Atlantic to the Asia-Pacific. The 2012 White Paper set 25 national objectives to be met by 2025, with targets ranging from improving trade links and increasing scholarships to teaching priority Asian languages. But in this transactional embrace of Asia that highlights economic and trade links, gaps might open up between ambition and delivery, especially amidst continuing evidence of insensitivity to how Asians forge lasting relationships. Ties with China are dominated by trade but security concerns remain. Relations with India should improve with the removal of the nuclear issue as an irritant and growing trade and tourist numbers. Japan remains an important trade and diplomatic partner. And geography and demography ensure that Indonesia is no less important to Australia than Asia’s big three. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes stock of China's evolving presence in the Indian Ocean. It posits that despite various traditional and non-traditional threats, the Indian Ocean is not the foremost concern in China's quest for maritime security. As a result, China's efforts to make foray beyond the Strait of Malacca remain limited. Three patterns in its posturing can be distinguished. First, it seeks to deter India – its main counterweight in South Asia – where it is the weakest, that is along the continental border. Second, it explores ways to reduce its reliance on the long maritime lifelines in the Indian Ocean. Third, it is gradually and modestly increasing its presence in a way that can be described asdiffuse pervasion. There is thus no reason to be overly alarmed. Yet, important uncertainties remain over China's future intentions and the degree to which problems with lesser powers can prompt it to use military means to defend its interests. Future Chinese naval assertiveness in the region will more likely be the outcome of contingency than strategic provision. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]