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The literature on the risk of conflict between the US and China is incomplete in a major aspect: Few studies pay sufficient attention to how a war could occur between these states. Available analyses propose speculative scenarios for a Sino-American war without grounding their arguments in historical evidence. This state of scholarship is problematic, since understanding the mechanisms through which China's rise could lead to war with the US is essential to estimating the risk of war and uncovering the conditions that would prompt a conflict. And a major obstacle to discovering the pathways for war is the absence of research on America's past interactions with rising powers. This paper aims to overcome these shortcomings by providing a systematic historical scrutiny. We investigate how the US came to fight wars with ascending powers in the past. The examined cases include American wars with Imperial Germany (1917-19), Nazi Germany (1941-45), and Imperial Japan (1941-45). Also analyzed is how the US avoided a fight with the ascendant Soviet Union (1946-62). This paper, however, goes beyond a mere historical survey: We apply relevant historical findings to exploring probable pathways for a future conflict between China and the US. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates crises in which the Chinese government requested an apology from the United States, and the official and popular reactions to these incidents. Two contentious episodes are studied: the 2001 EP-3E airplane collision near Hainan Isl ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the past decade, China has been experiencing phenomenal rates of economic growth. Its continuing development, however, is closely tied to its ability to keep its goods competitive in the international market. Thus, China has kept the value of its currency comparatively low by exporting many of its profits to the industrialized world. In particular, China has used some of its excess financial gain to purchase American treasury instruments and other American dollar assets. This has helped to finance the growing American national debt. China is one of the United State?s major creditors. At the same time that China is helping to artificially maintain the American economy, the US is engaging in security policies which seem to cast China as a threat to American hegemonic power. Considerable time and energy has been spent in the US in evaluating China as a potential threat, and a great deal has been written on how and when the US should respond to this perceived threat. The paradoxical relationship between the US and China is the subject of this paper. In particular, the paper evaluates the mutually-reinforcing economic relationship of the two countries and attempts to evaluate how this affects the evolving security relationship. Theoretically, the paper compares realist and liberal approaches to these questions with more complex constructivist arguments. The paper argues that the US perception of itself as the premiere world power is coming into conflict with the China?s perception of itself as a relatively weak country that is only now starting to attain the level of global prominence that it deserves. These self-identities strongly influence the operation of economic and security factors when the two states assess how to deal with each other. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China?s impressive economic growth has led to a surge in energy consumption, increasing Chinese dependence on foreign energy resources. US policy analysts disagree over whether China?s increasing dependence on international energy markets conflicts with US energy security interests. Thus far, these debates are occurring within the policy sphere and are not theoretically informed; this paper will improve on those debates by analyzing the energy issue against the backdrop of international relations theory. We argue that the security dilemma best models the emerging energy situation ? although both China and the United States are defensive status quo actors, uncertainty over one another?s intentions may lead to unwanted conflict. Recognizing the presence of security dilemma dynamics is critical for correctly determining which policy actions are most likely to lead to a cooperative outcome. The US must recognize that China is a status quo actor and follow a strategy of reassurance. If the US mistakenly treats China as a revisionist actor in the energy sphere, this may verify Chinese fears of US intentions and trigger avoidable spirals of Sino-US conflict. Maintaining US-China cooperation in the energy sphere is crucial because both the US and China view energy policy as an issue of national security. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]