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The popularity of online information generally experiences a rising and falling evolution. This paper considers the “burst”, “peak”, and “fade” key events together as a representative summary of popularity evolution. We propose a novel prediction task—predicting when popularity undergoes these key events. It is of great importance to know when these three key events occur, because doing so helps recommendation systems, online marketing, and containment of rumors. However, it is very challenging to solve this new prediction task due to two issues. First, popularity evolution has high variation and can follow various patterns, so how can we identify “burst”, “peak”, and “fade” in different patterns of popularity evolution? Second, these events usually occur in a very short time, so how can we accurately yet promptly predict them? In this paper we address these two issues. To handle the first one, we use a simple moving average to smooth variation, and then a universal method is presented for different patterns to identify the key events in popularity evolution. To deal with the second one, we extract different types of features that may have an impact on the key events, and then a correlation analysis is conducted in the feature selection step to remove irrelevant and redundant features. The remaining features are used to train a machine learning model. The feature selection step improves prediction accuracy, and in order to emphasize prediction promptness, we design a new evaluation metric which considers both accuracy and promptness to evaluate our prediction task. Experimental and comparative results show the superiority of our prediction solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro-blogging systems have become one of the most important ways for information sharing. Network structure and users’ interactions such as forwarding behaviors have aroused considerable research attention, while mention, as a key feature in micro-blogging platforms which can improve the visibility of a message and direct it to a particular user beyond the underlying social structure, is seldom studied in previous works. In this paper, we empirically study the mention effect in information diffusion, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We find that users with high number of followers would receive much more mentions than others. We further investigate the effect of mention in information diffusion by examining the response probability with respect to the number of mentions in a message and observe a saturation at around 5 mentions. Furthermore, we find that the response probability is the highest when a reciprocal followship exists between users, and one is more likely to receive a target user’s response if they have similar social status. To illustrate these findings, we propose the response prediction task and formulate it as a binary classification problem. Extensive evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of discovered factors. Our results have consequences for the understanding of human dynamics on the social network, and potential implications for viral marketing and public opinion monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, increasing numbers of users have adopted microblogging services as their main information source. However, most of them find themselves drowning in the millions of posts produced by other users every day. To cope with this, identifying a set of the most influential people is paramount. Moreover, finding a set of related influential users to expand the coverage of one particular topic is required in real world scenarios. Most of the existing algorithms in this area focus on topology-related methods such as PageRank. These methods mine link structures to find the expected influential rank of users. However, because they ignore the interaction data, these methods turn out to be less effective in social networks. In reality, a variety of topics exist within the information diffusing through the network. Because they have different interests, users play different roles in the diffusion of information related to different topics. As a result, distinguishing influential leaders according to different topics is also worthy of research. In this paper, we propose a multi-topic influence diffusion model (MTID) based on traces acquired from historic information. We decompose the influential scores of users into two parts: the direct influence determined by information propagation along the link structure and indirect influence that extends beyond the restrictions of direct follower relationships. To model the network from a multi-topical viewpoint, we introduce topic pools, each of which represents a particular topic information source. Then, we extract the topic distributions from the traces of tweets, determining the influence propagation probability and content generation probability. In the network, we adopt multiple ground nodes representing topic pools to connect every user through bidirectional links. Based on this multi-topical view of the network, we further introduce the topic-dependent rank (TD-Rank) algorithm to identify the multi-topic influential users. Our algorithm not only effectively overcomes the shortages of PageRank but also effectively produces a measure of topic-related rank. Extensive experiments on a Weibo dataset show that our model is both effective and robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]