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Drought is a natural disaster and its occurrence and development can be attributed to a range of driving factors, such as deficient precipitation, wind, temperature, land use/land cover changes, and so on. Therefore, attribution and monitoring of droughts are complicated and challenging. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been widely used in meteorological drought monitoring. Nonstationarity has not been considered in SPEI-based drought monitoring. Here we propose a modified SPEI considering the nonstationarity of hydrometeorological processes, i.e. NSPEI hereafter. We observe nonstationarity SPEI in the Northeast, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The goodness-of-fit can be determined for 76% of the total stations. Under the assumption of nonstationarity, the drought monitoring performance of the NSPEI is more robust than the traditional SPEI. Besides, we evaluate drought conditions across China under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), i.e. SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585. We identify intensifying droughts in southwest China but a wetting tendency in northern China in winter under the SSP126 scenario; but a significant wetting tendency in southwest China and a drying tendency in northeast China under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. This study provides a novel meteorological drought index and highlights a fresh picture of drought conditions across China under different SSPs. • A non-stationary SPEI index is developed. • The drought monitoring performance of the NSPEI is robust than the traditional SPEI. • We reevaluated drought conditions across China in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flow direction algorithms have important application in attracting geomorphic features and topographic attributes, which serve as inputs for some hydrological and topographical models. Evaluating flow direction algorithms is of great significance and often conducted on synthetic surfaces instead of real digital elevation models for free of approximation errors. However, most widely-used synthetic surfaces are too simplified to represent complex topographical relief of real-world terrains. For this, this work applies a complex synthetic surface of modified Himmelblau's function (HF) to simulate sophisticated terrains encountered in real landscapes. HF surface is spatially smooth and continuous with four hilltops and one valley, where plan curvatures are clustered mainly from −0.1 to 0.1. In addition, a slope line-based discretization numerical (SLDN) approach is designed for obtaining numerical solution to theoretical total contributing area (TCA) on synthetic surfaces of non-integrable slope lines (e.g. HF surface). TCAs estimated by several flow direction algorithms are compared with SLDN-derived TCA quantitatively. Results indicate that the largest and smallest mean size errors are obtained by Random eight-node (Rho8) (i.e. 82.6 %) and Freeman multiple flow direction (FMFD) (i.e. 17.9 %), while the largest and smallest mean extent errors by Eight drainage directions (D8) (i.e. 128.2 %) and Eight drainage directions, least transversal deviation (D8-LTD) (i.e.55.4 %). Most mean errors are larger than 20.0 %, which may not be satisfactory in practice. This work can provide a reference for flow direction algorithms application in digital terrain analysis, and therefore improve accuracy of hydrological, geological and geomorphological models. [Display omitted] • Characteristics of the complex HF surface are comprehensively investigated. • An SLDN approach is used to obtain theoretical TCAs on complex synthetic surfaces. • D8-LTD and FMFD are respectively the best SFD and MFD algorithms on HF surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding changes in human water utilization under the policy environment of the national top-down water unified allocation and regulation (TWAR) is crucial for promoting river health, sustainable resource utilization, and high-quality socioeconomic development along the whole Yellow River, a congenitally water-deficient river in China. This study assessed the TWAR policy effects on the total/sectoral/per capita water uses using the canonical difference-in-difference (DID) model, synthetic control method (SCM), and generalized synthetic control method (GSCM). The net effects of TWAR were assumed to be spatially heterogeneous and associated with variations in water-conserving efficiency, described by two indicators: water-conserving irrigation (WCI) and industrial recycled water (IRW). The suitable threshold intervals of WCI and IRW for benefiting decelerating water utilization were analyzed using a linear mediating effect (ME) model and panel smoothing transformation regression (PSTR) model, to explain the rebound effect in water use under the impact of the prevailing TWAR. The results show that TWAR initially had sustained positive effects on curbing water use growth, with the highest contribution to per capita agricultural water use in the lower section and high-quota region of the Yellow River Basin, but these effects decreased after a decade. Only when the WCI shifted within the threshold interval [0.283, 0.771] and the IRW did not exceed 0.962 could TWAR restrain water use. Emphasizing the conservation-oriented improvement of water use efficiency may necessitate extra attention to regions where water-conserving practices already reach high levels beyond the maximum WCI or IRW thresholds. These regions might be inclined to overutilize saved water to boost economic benefits and thereby potentially exacerbate the undesirable rebound effect from new uncontrolled water extraction. • TWAR policy effects on total/sectoral/per capita water uses were assessed. • Three quasi-natural experimental methods were employed: DID, SCM, and GSCM. • Water use initially slowed by TWAR may rebound after decadal periods. • TWAR's causality showed heterogeneity due to sectoral water-conserving efficiency. • Inhibiting role on water use was functional within suitable efficiency thresholds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]