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Urbanization and the release of carbon emission are two significant features of contemporary economic and social progress in China. However, there are few studies that consider how urbanization policy goals affect carbon emission. This paper aims to study the nonlinear effects of urbanization policy goals on carbon emission in 13 cities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In this paper, a multi-dimensional spatial disturbance grey model is proposed. Based on matrix perturbation theory, this paper explores the spatial perturbation bounds of the novel model and verifies that the spatial property of the model is consistent with the viewpoint of the First Law of Geography. Then, the novel model is used to predict the urban carbon emission under different urbanization policy goal scenarios. The results showed that the novel model has spatial regional correlation in spatial region prediction. With the development of urbanization level, carbon emissions show a downward trend in more than 50% of cities from 2022 to 2025. In addition, the improvement of urbanization policy goals will promote the carbon peak time of most cities. The carbon emission intensity will exhibit an inverted U-shaped trend distribution in space. The research results are conducive to providing scientific guidance for the formulation of new-type urbanization policies and helping to achieve the dual carbon goals. • A multi-dimensional spatial disturbance grey model is proposed. • The novel grey model is consistent with the viewpoint of the First Law of Geography. • The spatial distribution of carbon intensity showed an inverted U-shaped pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global warming intensifies, reducing carbon emissions has become a global common mission. Tourism transportation is one of the important sources of carbon emissions, and reducing its carbon emissions is a key part of achieving China's carbon reduction goals. Based on the panel data of various provinces and cities in North China from 2000 to 2022, this paper calculates the carbon emissions of tourism transportation by using the carbon emission coefficients of different transportation modes in different segments. Moreover, the temporal and spatial evolution of the tourism economy is systematically analyzed. The Tapio decoupling model and LMDI addition decomposition model are used to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and tourism economic growth and the effects of 11 influencing factors on carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) The carbon emission of tourism transportation in North China has experienced four stages: a steady growth period, a transitional adaptation period, a stable equilibrium period, and a drastic decline period. The overall carbon emission level of tourism transportation is as follows: Hebei Province > Shanxi Province > Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region > Beijing City > Tianjin City. (2) The decoupling coefficient between tourism traffic carbon emissions and economic development fluctuates but mainly shows a weak decoupling state. (3) In terms of influencing factors, passenger size and passenger density have the greatest impact on the carbon emissions of tourism transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to evaluate the effect of market-oriented environmental management measures on regional carbon emission intensity in the pilot areas better, this paper adopts a quasinatural experiment of energy-use rights trading (EURT) policy by using the difference-in-difference method from the perspective of cities in China from 2006 to 2019. The results show that the policy of EURT can significantly reduce regional carbon emission intensity, which varies in different regions and different scales of cities. The main goal of implementing the policy is to reduce regional carbon emission intensity by improving the energy consumption structure and promoting the improvement of industrial structure and green innovation. In addition, the spatial impact of the EURT pilot project is demonstrated by its ability to not only reduce local carbon emission intensity but also decrease carbon intensity in and around the designated areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Measure carbon emission inequalities (CEIs) of urban agglomerations under rapid urbanization. • Identify the key factors determining CEIs within the three urban agglomerations. • Account for the differences between adjacent or distant urban agglomerations. • The declining CEI is mainly due to changes in industrial structure and economic development. • CEI in the upper reaches of the YREB increases due to the changes in energy intensity. Increasing countries are articulating ambitious goals of carbon neutrality. However, large inequalities in regional emissions within a country may hinder progress toward a carbon–neutral future, as the unequal distribution of reduction responsibilities among regions could impair just transition and exacerbate uneven development, which necessitates an in-depth understanding of the mechanism of multi-scale carbon inequalities within country, region, and city. Yet, the evolution of carbon inequalities within urban agglomerations and the differences between adjacent or distant urban agglomerations have not been well understood, especially in countries undergoing rapid urbanization. Using the data of 89 cities in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) during 2006–2021, this paper quantifies carbon emissions inequality (CEI) at different scales in a systematic regional-urban agglomeration-city hierarchical structure. Then, under the integrated mean logarithmic deviation-logarithmic mean Divisia index (MLD-LMDI) decomposition framework, multi-scale CEIs are perfectly decomposed into six interrelated drivers, i.e., industrial emission structure, energy emission intensity, industrial energy mix, energy intensity, industrial structure, and economic development. The results show that economic development, energy intensity, and industrial energy mix disparities are the main determinants accounting for CEIs at different scales. The decreasing CEI in YREB is mainly due to the changes in industrial structure and economic development, while the energy intensity effect partially hinders the mitigation of CEI. In the upper reaches of the YREB, the energy intensity effect accounts for over 94% growth of CEI during 2006–2021, while the decline in CEIs in middle and lower reaches is primarily caused by the effects of industrial energy mix and industrial structure, respectively. Further spatial decomposition analysis reveals more refined city-level heterogeneous effects and emphasizes the prioritized emission reduction direction for each city. This paper offers implications for reducing carbon inequality and insights into coordinated carbon emissions mitigation at the regional level for a carbon–neutral future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High carbon emissions and population aging are two obstacles to China's development as an emerging economy. It is urgent to scientifically examine the impacts of population aging on carbon emissions to discover new pathways for urban carbon emission reduction. However, existing studies face challenges in terms of focusing on and methodology for accurately capturing the role of industrial production and energy consumption in the environmental effects of population aging. This paper constructs a chain mediation analytical framework and systematically examines the intrinsic linkages between population aging and carbon emissions in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020 using a two-way fixed effects model. This paper has three main findings. (1) The positive correlation between urban population aging and carbon emissions development is generally low, with coupling coordination degree values of 0.4233, 0.4458, 0.4220, 0.4715, and 0.4665 for each yearly cross-section. (2) For every 1% increase in the population aging rate, carbon emissions decrease by 0.3478% on average. The carbon reduction effect of population aging is significantly greater in low-emissions cities and high-income cities than in other cities. (3) The industrial upgrading (IU) path, energy conservation (EC) path and chain mediation (CM) path account for 72.43%, 7.23% and 20.34%, respectively, of the indirect effects. If the causal link between IU and EC is not considered, the EC effect will be overestimated by 281.16%. The results of the study suggest that properly coping with population aging and reducing carbon emissions are not completely opposed to each other, a conclusion that passes both endogeneity exclusion and robustness check. This paper advocates replacing the one-size-fits-all approach in carbon emissions management and investing more in policy preferences to support carbon emission reduction in both high-emissions and low-income cities. [Display omitted] •The synergistic trends of carbon emissions and population aging are not apparent. •Population aging significantly reduces carbon emissions at the city scale. •Linkage effect of industrial upgrading and energy conservation on carbon emission reduction. •Energy conservation effect of population aging amplified by industrial upgrading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the nexus between the efficiency of carbon emission allocation and the efficiency of green development within the context of innovative city construction. Leveraging data from 283 prefecture-level cities and corresponding provincial-level panel data spanning the period from 2005 to 2019 in mainland China, the research employs the zero-sum gain DEA model to compute provincial carbon emission allocation efficiency and allocate allowances. Furthermore, it utilizes the all-factor non-radial directional distance function and the SBM-DEA model to gauge the green development efficiency of prefecture-level cities. The double-difference method is applied to evaluate the impact of innovative city construction on regional green development efficiency. The results indicate that an imbalance between carbon emission allocation efficiency and emission quotas detrimentally affects urban green development. However, technological progress, factor accumulation, and the institutional environment associated with innovative city building mitigate this negative impact. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a differentiated effect of innovative city building on regional green development efficiency. This paper not only explores the concept of achieving an equitable distribution of carbon emission allowances but also examines how innovative city building influences regional green development. By establishing connections between urban policies, the equitable distribution of carbon emission allowances, and regional green development, it introduces a new perspective for promoting high-quality development at the regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper is to evaluate empirically the main implications of digital technology (DT) on carbon emissions (CE). Our sample focuses on 283 cities of China over the period from 2003 to 2019, and the effect of DT on CE is examined with a threshold spatial effect model. Empirical results show that DT has a negative impact on carbon emissions and the transmission mechanism contains both a direct impact on local region and a spillover effect across regions. There is empirical evidence of a threshold effect in the relationship between DT and CE, with stronger carbon reduction effect for DT values larger than the established threshold. Moreover, CE reduction effect of DT appear to be amplified by the level of marketization. Regions with a higher level of marketization thus show a more significant manifestation of CE reduction effect attributed to DT. Our results provide empirical evidence that DT development may contribute to achieving carbon neutrality at least partially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address global climate change, achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality has become a global consensus. However, the means to simultaneously achieve carbon reduction and promote green economic development, particularly in developing countries, require further investigation. This study evaluates the impact of e-commerce on CO 2 emissions. Through an examination of the effects of the National E-Commerce Demonstration City (NEDC) policy from 2006 to 2017, this paper reveals that e-commerce growth facilitated by the NEDC policy resulted in a 7.89% reduction in total CO 2 emissions and a per capita reduction of 1.1146 tons in the pilot cities. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the upgrading of industrial structure, development of digital finance, and the growth of innovation and entrepreneurship serve as primary pathways for this impact. The robustness of the findings is supported by parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and additional sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, the research reveals that the NEDC policy exhibits a more significant reduction in CO 2 emissions in cities with higher levels of economic development and non-resource-based cities. Welfare analyses show that the NEDC policy has significant socio-economic effects. These findings provide new evidence on the environmental effects of the digital economy and offer insights into achieving carbon neutrality. • The National E-commerce Demonstration Cities (NEDC) policy reduced CO 2 emissions. • Optimizing industrial structure, enhancing digital finance, and promoting innovation and entrepreneurship are mechanisms. • The effect is more pronounced in cities with high economic levels and high resource dependence. • The NEDC policy substantially enhanced social welfare by reducing CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We try to expand the political promotion tournaments in Chinese local governments from raising GDP to the level of increasing fiscal revenues. From the vantage point of officials' performance appraisal, we investigate the impact of local government officials' political ambitions, represented by the ex-ante commitment level of fiscal revenue targets, on carbon emission intensity (CEI). Utilizing a sample of 209 prefecture-level cities in China spanning 2006 to 2019, this paper empirically scrutinizes the influence of local government political ambition on CEI. The findings reveal that the greater the political ambition of local government officials, the more pronounced the reduction in CEI. Furthermore, our study demonstrates that political ambition contributes to the decline of CEI by elevating the levels of environmental attention and green innovation. This research not only aids in comprehending the rationale and necessity of the political promotion tournaments implemented by the Chinese central government but also offers valuable insights for other developing countries seeking to mitigate CEI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resource-based cities generally face the dual pressures of ecological damage and high carbon emissions. Taking the National Sustainable Development Plan for Resource-Based Cities (NSDP) issued in China as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper for the first time, uses the difference-in-difference method to test the coordinated effect of green expansion and carbon reduction brought by NSDP at the county level using rich remote sensing data. The results show that NSDP has significantly promoted the ecological quality improvement and CO 2 emission mitigation in resource-based cities, and the above coordinated benefits mainly occur in energy, mature, declining, northeastern, and municipal resource-based cities. Through the mechanism analysis, we find that NSDP mainly works by promoting the transformation of industry sector to agriculture, animal husbandry, accommodation and catering, finance, and environment management sectors, which are reflected in output, employment, product yield, land type and land transaction area. Further discussion on the tertiary industry suggests that developing tourism, easing financing constraint and strengthening environment regulation, are the key channels to borne fruit in green expansion and carbon reduction. • Analysis of placed-based policy on resource at the county-level. • Coordinated effects of green expansion and carbon reduction are tested. • Key areas of policy effects are identified. • Industrial structure transformation and its related mechanisms are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Carbon emissions from energy consumption of 282 prefecture-level cities in China were calculated. • A new method for calculating carbon emission factors for electricity is proposed. • Extending the Atkinson Index to the application of Carbon Fairness. • Measured the inequality and fairness indicators of carbon emissions from energy consumption at the prefecture-level city level in China. This paper focuses on the conceptualization and quantification of carbon emission inequality and fairness from energy consumption. In order to more accurately measure the carbon emissions generated by electricity consumption in each city, we firstly propose a new method for calculating the carbon emission factor for electricity, and calculates the carbon emissions from energy consumption in 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019. Through the application of the Theil-Kaya decomposition mechanism and the improved Atkinson index, we conducted an in-depth study of the carbon emission inequality and fairness indicators from energy consumption. The results show that (1) Although China's overall inequality has declined, it remains significant in the western region, with its inequality indicator fluctuating from 0.548 in 2003 to 0.683 in 2019.(2) The decomposition of the drivers of inequality indicators shows that the contribution of GDP per capita to inequality is increasingly being replaced by energy intensity and the energy carbon emission factor, with energy intensity emerging as the main driver, contributing more than 40% to inequality in 2019, both overall and in the three regions.(3) The results for the fairness indicator, on the other hand, show a certain degree of divergence. Further Dynamic Time Warping fitting analysis shows that regardless of how the public's sensitivity to carbon emissions varies, the change trends of the fairness and inequality indicators for carbon emissions in the eastern region show a high degree of convergence, even in the two most extreme cases. The fit is poorest in the western region, but improves significantly if public's sensitivity to carbon emissions increases. (4)To sum up, some policies that are consistent with the context of the times, such as the East-West regional counterparts and the construction of a new type of power system, are worthy of priority consideration by the Government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comprehensive cohesion of the digital economy, structural deviation adjustment, and green development is a crucial step towards promoting high-quality economic growth and realizing carbon peak and carbon neutrality. This paper probes the impact of intra- and inter-regional digital economy on carbon emissions, considering the mediating effect of structural deviation, utilizing panel data from 267 prefecture-level cities in China spanning the years 2011–2019. The findings reveal the following key insights. First, the connection between the digital economy and carbon emissions within cities follows an inverted "U" shape. In the early stages, the digital economy leads to an average increase in carbon emissions of 0.069%. However, in the later stages, the digitized economy markedly decrease emissions. Second, both the digital economy and carbon emissions exhibit spatial spillover effects. Within the region, DE has a significant nonlinear spillover effect on CO 2 emissions in the neighboring regions, with the spatial decay boundary of this effect extending up to 380 km. Third, analysis of the impact mechanism reveals that the digital economy mitigates local and neighboring carbon dioxide emissions by adjusting structural deviation. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the digital economy is more likely to have a carbon emission reduction effect in cities that are not involved in the industrial transfer and those that do not belong to the old industrial base. These findings provide a rationale and policy reference for China to harness the opportunities presented by digital economy development and to achieve the "dual-carbon" goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]