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Low-carbon technology has become the focus of addressing global climate challenges but is facing the supply restriction of critical high-tech metals. Recycling has become a powerful measure to solve this issue. In the paper, a comprehensive recycling potential index (RPI) is constructed to evaluate the recycling potential of high-tech metals for low-carbon energy technologies in China from 2020 to 2050, and development strategies are proposed based on the evaluation results. The results indicate that the future trends of recycling potential show four evolution modes – either reaching or rapidly rising to a high level, increasing to the middle and middle-high level, unsteadily staying at the low and middle-low level, or remaining at a low and continuously decreasing level. According to the evolution trend, different strategies, including key development, reserves, digestion, and transfer, should be adopted in different stages. Co, Li, Dy, Nd, Tb, and Eu should be the focus of technology, funds and policy from both the government and enterprises due to their high recycling potential in the long term. Moreover, measures should be taken to encourage recycling and mitigate the supply risk of high-tech metals for low-carbon energy technologies, including tracking the development of low-carbon energy technologies, adjusting the list of critical high-tech metals, promoting recycling technology, and exploring substitute resources. [Display omitted] • A comprehensive recycling potential index is constructed to evaluate the recycling potential of high-tech metals. • The future trends of recycling potential of high-tech metals show four evolution modes. • Strategies like key development, reserves, digestion, and transfer should be adopted in different stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]