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The climate system responds to changes in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases or aerosols through rapid processes, triggered within hours and days, and through slower processes, where the full response may only be seen after centuries. In this paper, we aim to elucidate the mechanisms operating on time scales of hours to years to better understand the response of key climate quantities such as energy fluxes, temperature, and precipitation after a sudden increase in either carbon dioxide (CO2), black carbon (BC), or sulfate (SO4) aerosols. The results are based on idealized simulations from six global climate models. We find that the effect of changing ocean temperatures kicks in after a couple of months. Rapid precipitation reductions start occurring instantly and are established after just a few days. For BC, they constitute most of the equilibrium response. For CO2 and SO4, the magnitude of the precipitation response gradually increases as surface warming/cooling evolves, and for CO2, the sign of the response changes from negative to positive after 2 years. Rapid cloud adjustments are typically established within the first 24 h, and while the magnitude of cloud feedbacks for CO2 and SO4 increases over time, the geographical pattern of the equilibrium cloud change is present already after the first year. While there are model differences, our work underscores the overall similarity of the major time-varying processes and responses simulated by current global models and hence the robustness of key features of simulated responses to historical and future anthropogenic forcing. Significance Statement: How does the climate system respond to a change in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases or aerosols? Some processes are rapid, responding within hours and days. Others are slow, and the full response to a forcing of the climate may only be seen after centuries. In this paper, we use six global climate models to investigate the time scales of climate responses to carbon dioxide, black carbon, and sulfate, focusing on key climate quantities, such as temperature, precipitation, and clouds. While there are ample model differences, our work underscores the overall similarity of the major time-varying processes and responses simulated by current global models and hence the robustness of key features of simulated responses to historical and future anthropogenic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of future West African monsoon (WAM) precipitation change in response to increasing greenhouse gases are uncertain, and an improved understanding of the drivers of WAM precipitation change is needed to help aid model development and better inform adaptation policies in the region. This paper addresses one of those drivers, the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 (i.e., the impact of increased CO2 in the absence of SST warming and changes in plant physiology). An atmosphere-only model is used to examine both the equilibrium response and the evolution of the change over the days following the instantaneous CO2 increase. In response to the direct radiative effect, WAM precipitation increases due to a weakening of the shallow meridional circulation over North Africa, advecting less dry air into the convective column associated with the monsoon. Changes in the shallow circulation are associated with atmospheric and surface warming patterns over North Africa. A large-scale atmospheric warming pattern, whereby North Africa warms more than the monsoon region, leads to a northward shift in the Saharan heat low. In response to increased precipitation in the Sahel, local soil moisture feedbacks play a key role in determining the low-level circulation change and the location of the intertropical discontinuity. The large-scale warming patterns over North Africa result from differing levels of constraint applied by convective quasi-equilibrium. While this constraint acts strongly in the equatorial WAM region, preventing the region from warming in response to the direct radiative effect, North Africa is not strongly constrained and is therefore able to warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of warm past climates and projections of future climate change show that the Arctic warms more than the global mean, particularly during winter months. Previous work has attributed this reduced Arctic land seasonality to the effects of sea ice or clouds. In this paper, we show that the reduced Arctic land seasonality is a robust consequence of the relatively small surface heat capacity of land and the nonlinearity of the temperature dependence of surface longwave emission, without recourse to other processes or feedbacks. We use a general circulation model (GCM) with no clouds or sea ice and a simple representation of land. In the annual mean, the equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient falls with increasing CO2, but this is only a near-surface phenomenon and is not caused by the change in total meridional heat transport, which is virtually unaltered. The high-latitude land has about twice as much warming in winter than in summer, whereas high-latitude ocean has very little seasonality in warming. A surface energy balance model shows how the combination of the smaller surface heat capacity of land and the nonlinearity of the temperature dependence of surface longwave emission gives rise to the reduced seasonality of the land surface. The increase in evaporation over land also leads to winter amplification of warming over land, although amplification still occurs without it. While changes in clouds, sea ice, and ocean heat transport undoubtedly play a role in high-latitude warming, these results show that enhanced land surface temperature warming in winter can happen in their absence for robust reasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the climate impacts of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. In its Fourth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that about 50 percent of a carbon dioxide increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years. It is reported that the logarithmic relationship between carbon dioxide and its radiative forcing implies that the time scale at which atmospheric temperature declines will be longer.

Airborne turbulence measurement gives a spatial distribution of air-surface fluxes that networks of fixed surface sites typically cannot capture. Much work has improved the accuracy of such measurements and the estimation of the uncertainty peculiar to streams of turbulence data measured from the air. A particularly significant challenge and opportunity is to distinguish fluxes from different surface types, especially those occurring in patches smaller than the necessary averaging length. The flux fragment method (FFM), a conditional-sampling variant of eddy covariance in the space-time domain, was presented in 2008. It was shown capable of segregating the mean flux density (CO2, H2O, sensible heat) in maize from that in soybeans over the patchwork farmlands of Illinois. This was, however, an ideal surface for the method, and the random-error estimate used a relatively rudimentary bootstrap resampling. The present paper describes an upgraded random-error estimate that accounts for the serial correlation of the time/space series and the heterogeneity of the signal. Results are presented from the Alaskan tundra. Though recognized as important, systematic error estimates are not covered in this paper. Some discussion is offered on the relation of the FFM to other approaches similarly motivated, particularly those using wavelets. Successful measurement of the variation of air-surface exchange over heterogeneous surfaces has value for developing and improving process models relating surface flux to remotely sensible quantities, such as the vegetative land-cover type and its condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides atmospheric CO2 column abundance measurement results from a summer 2011 series of flights of a 2.05- μm laser absorption spectrometer on the NASA DC-8 research aircraft. The integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) method is used for the CO2 column mole fraction retrievals. This instrument and the data analysis methodology developed to achieve retrievals over complex terrain and variable atmospheric conditions provide insight into the capabilities of the IPDA method for both airborne measurements and future global-scale CO2 measurements from low-Earth orbit pertinent to the proposed NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission. Demonstrated in this paper is the capability to measure CO2 drawdown caused by crop activity during a midday flight over the U.S. upper Midwest area. In addition, an example is provided of high spatial resolution measurements of CO2 plumes from individual stack clusters of the Four Corners Power Plant in northwestern New Mexico. Complex terrain, the spectral properties of the aboveground scatterers, and potential cloud contamination are factors that complicate the column abundance retrieval. The impacts of these factors and various means of minimizing these influences in the retrievals are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates changes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) in response to carbon dioxide increase and surface warming separately in an atmospheric general circulation model, finding that both effects lead to a warmer tropical tropopause. Surface warming also results in an upward shift of the tropopause. A detailed heat budget analysis is performed to quantify the contributions from different radiative and dynamic processes to changes in the TTL temperature. When carbon dioxide increases with fixed surface temperature, a warmer TTL mainly results from the direct radiative effect of carbon dioxide increase. With surface warming, the largest contribution to the TTL warming comes from the radiative effect of the warmer troposphere, which is partly canceled by the radiative effect of the moistening at the TTL. Strengthening of the stratospheric circulation following surface warming cools the lower stratosphere dynamically and radiatively via changes in ozone. These two effects are of comparable magnitudes. This circulation change is the main cause of temperature changes near 63 hPa but is weak near 100 hPa. Contributions from changes in convection and clouds are also quantified. These results illustrate the heat budget analysis as a useful tool to disentangle the radiative-dynamical-chemical-convective coupling at the TTL and to facilitate an understanding of intermodel difference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the authors address the impact of uncertainty on estimates of transient climate sensitivity (TCS) of the globally averaged surface temperature, including both uncertainty in past forcing and internal variability in the climate record. This study provides a range of probabilistic estimates of the TCS that combine these two sources of uncertainty for various underlying assumptions about the nature of the uncertainty. The authors also provide estimates of how quickly the uncertainty in the TCS may be expected to diminish in the future as additional observations become available. These estimates are made using a nonlinear Kalman filter coupled to a stochastic, global energy balance model, using the filter and observations to constrain the model parameters. This study verifies that model and filter are able to emulate the evolution of a comprehensive, state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model and to accurately predict the TCS of the model, and then apply the methodology to observed temperature and forcing records of the twentieth century. For uncertainty assumptions best supported by global surface temperature data up to the present time, this paper finds a most likely present-day estimate of the transient climate sensitivity to be 1.6 K, with 90%% confidence the response will fall between 1.3 and 2.6 K, and it is estimated that this interval may be 45%% smaller by the year 2030. The authors calculate that emissions levels equivalent to forcing of less than 475 ppmv CO2 concentration are needed to ensure that the transient temperature response will not exceed 2 K with 95%% confidence. This is an assessment for the short-to-medium term and not a recommendation for long-term stabilization forcing; the equilibrium temperature response to this level of CO2 may be much greater. The flat temperature trend of the last decade has a detectable but small influence on TCS. This study describes how the results vary if different uncertainty assumptions are made and shows they are robust to variations in the initial prior probability assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A full understanding of the causes of the severe drought seen in the Sahel in the latter part of the twentieth-century remains elusive some 25 yr after the height of the event. Previous studies have suggested that this drying trend may be explained by either decadal modes of natural variability or by human-driven emissions (primarily aerosols), but these studies lacked a sufficiently large number of models to attribute one cause over the other. In this paper, signatures of both aerosol and greenhouse gas changes on Sahel rainfall are illustrated. These idealized responses are used to interpret the results of historical Sahel rainfall changes from two very large ensembles of fully coupled climate models, which both sample uncertainties arising from internal variability and model formulation. The sizes of these ensembles enable the relative role of human-driven changes and natural variability on historic Sahel rainfall to be assessed. The paper demonstrates that historic aerosol changes are likely to explain most of the underlying 1940-80 drying signal and a notable proportion of the more pronounced 1950-80 drying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary focus of this paper is the analysis of the roles of long-term increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and sea surface temperatures (used as indicators of climate change) and man-made halocarbons (indicators of chemical ozone depletion linked to halogens) in explaining the observed trend of ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and implications for related variables including temperature and tropopause height. Published estimates indicate a decrease of approximately 10% in observed ozone concentrations in this region between 1979 and 2005. Using a coupled chemistry–climate atmosphere model forced by observed sea surface temperatures and surface concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases and halocarbons, the authors show that the simulations display substantial decreases in tropical ozone that compare well in both latitudinal and vertical structure with those observed. Based on sensitivity simulations, the analysis indicates that the decreases in the lower stratospheric (85–50 hPa) tropical ozone distribution are mostly associated with increases in CO2 and sea surface temperatures, in contrast to those at higher latitudes, which are largely driven by halocarbon increases. Factors influencing temperature trends and tropopause heights in this region are also probed. It is shown that the modeled temperature trends in the lower tropical stratosphere are also associated with increases in CO2 and sea surface temperatures. Following the analysis of lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends, the secondary focus of this paper is on related changes in tropopause height. Much of the simulated tropopause rise in the tropical zone as measured by tropopause height is found to be linked to increases in sea surface temperatures and CO2, while increases in halocarbons dominate the tropopause height changes in the subtropics near 30°; both drivers thus affect different regions of the simulated changes in the position of the tropopause. Finally, it is shown that halocarbon increases dominate the changes in the width of the region where modeled total ozone displays tropical character (as indicated by low values of the column abundance). Hence the findings suggest that climate changes and halocarbon changes make different contributions to different metrics used to characterize tropical change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) is a useful metric of climate warming that directly relates the cause of climate change (cumulative carbon emissions) to the most used index of climate change (global mean near-surface temperature change). In this paper, analytical reasoning is used to investigate why TCRE is near constant over a range of cumulative emissions up to 2000 Pg of carbon. In addition, a climate model of intermediate complexity, forced with a constant flux of CO2 emissions, is used to explore the effect of terrestrial carbon cycle feedback strength on TCRE. The analysis reveals that TCRE emerges from the diminishing radiative forcing from CO2 per unit mass being compensated for by the diminishing ability of the ocean to take up heat and carbon. The relationship is maintained as long as the ocean uptake of carbon, which is simulated to be a function of the CO2 emissions rate, dominates changes in the airborne fraction of carbon. Strong terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks have a dependence on the rate of carbon emission and, when present, lead to TRCE becoming rate dependent. Despite these feedbacks, TCRE remains roughly constant over the range of the representative concentration pathways and therefore maintains its primary utility as a metric of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, most climate simulations use prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore do not interactively include the effect of carbon cycle feedbacks. However, the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario has additionally been run by earth system models with prescribed CO2 emissions. This paper analyzes the climate projections of 11 earth system models (ESMs) that performed both emission-driven and concentration-driven RCP8.5 simulations. When forced by RCP8.5 CO2 emissions, models simulate a large spread in atmospheric CO2; the simulated 2100 concentrations range between 795 and 1145 ppm. Seven out of the 11 ESMs simulate a larger CO2 (on average by 44 ppm, 985 ± 97 ppm by 2100) and hence higher radiative forcing (by 0.25 W m−2) when driven by CO2 emissions than for the concentration-driven scenarios (941 ppm). However, most of these models already overestimate the present-day CO2, with the present-day biases reasonably well correlated with future atmospheric concentrations' departure from the prescribed concentration. The uncertainty in CO2 projections is mainly attributable to uncertainties in the response of the land carbon cycle. As a result of simulated higher CO2 concentrations than in the concentration-driven simulations, temperature projections are generally higher when ESMs are driven with CO2 emissions. Global surface temperature change by 2100 (relative to present day) increased by 3.9° ± 0.9°C for the emission-driven simulations compared to 3.7° ± 0.7°C in the concentration-driven simulations. Although the lower ends are comparable in both sets of simulations, the highest climate projections are significantly warmer in the emission-driven simulations because of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a detailed quality assessment of a novel underwater sensor for the measurement of CO2 partial pressure ( pCO2) based on surface water field deployments carried out between 2008 and 2011. The commercially available sensor, which is based on membrane equilibration and nondispersive IR (NDIR) spectrometry is small and can be integrated into mobile platforms. It is calibrated in water against a proven flow-through pCO2 instrument within a custom-built calibration setup. The aspect of highest concern with respect to achievable data quality of the sensor is the compensation for signal drift inevitably connected to absorption measurements. Three means are used to correct for drift effects: (i) a filter correlation or dual-beam setup, (ii) regular zero gas measurements realized automatically within the sensor, and (iii) a zero-based transformation of two sensor calibrations flanking the time of sensor deployment. Three sensors were tested against an underway pCO2 system during two major research cruises, providing an in situ temperature range from 7.4° to 30.1°C and pCO2 values between 289 and 445 μatm. The average difference between sensor and reference pCO2 was found to be −0.6 ±3.0 μatm with an RMSE of 3.7 μatm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model-Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north-south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north-south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east-west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2-10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small environmental research aircraft (ERA) are becoming more common for detailed studies of air-surface interactions. The Sky Arrow 650 ERA, used by multiple groups, is designed to minimize the complexity of high-precision airborne turbulent wind measurement. Its relative wind probe, of a nine-port design, is furthermore used with several other airplanes. This paper gives an overview of 1) calibration of the model that converts the probe's raw measurements to meteorological quantities; 2) quality control and assurance (QC-QA) in postprocessing of these quantities to compute fluxes; and 3) sensitivity of fluxes to errors in calibration parameters. The model, an adapted version of standard models of potential flow and aerodynamic upwash, is calibrated using an integrated method to derive a globally optimum set of parameters from in-flight maneuvers. Methods of QC-QA from the tower flux community are adopted for use with airborne flux data to provide more objective selection criteria for large datasets. Last, measurements taken from a standard operational flight are used to show fluxes to be most sensitive to calibration parameters that directly affect the vertical wind component. In another test with the same data, varying all calibration parameters simultaneously by ±10% of their optimum values, the model computes a response in the fluxes smaller than 10%, though a larger response may occur if only a subset of parameters is perturbed. A MATLAB toolbox has been developed that facilitates the procedures presented here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of greenhouse gas concentrations over the twenty-first century generally rely on two optimistic, but questionable, assumptions about the carbon cycle: 1) that elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will enhance terrestrial carbon storage and 2) that plant migration will be fast relative to climate changes. This paper demonstrates that carbon cycle uncertainty is considerably larger than currently recognized and that plausible carbon cycle responses could strongly amplify climate warming. This has important implications for societal decisions that relate to climate change risk management because it implies that a given level of human emissions could result in much larger climate changes than we now realize or that stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a 'safe' level could require lower human emissions than currently understood. These results also suggest that terrestrial carbon cycle responses could be sufficiently strong to account for the changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide that occurred during transitions between ice age and interglacial periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A perturbed physics Hadley Centre climate model ensemble was used to study changes in drought on doubling atmospheric CO2. The drought metrics analyzed were based on 1) precipitation anomalies, 2) soil moisture anomalies, and 3) the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Drought was assumed to occur 17%% of the time under single CO2. On doubling CO2, in general, PDSI drought occurs more often than soil moisture drought, which occurs more often than precipitation drought. This paper explores the relative sensitivity of each drought metric to changes in the main drivers of drought, namely precipitation and available energy. Drought tends to increase when the mean precipitation decreases, the mean available energy increases, the standard deviation of precipitation increases, and the standard deviation of available energy decreases. Simple linear approximations show that the sensitivity of drought to changes in mean precipitation is similar for the three different metrics. However, the sensitivity of drought to changes in the mean available energy (which is projected to increase under increased atmospheric CO2) is highly dependent on metric: with PDSI drought the most sensitive, soil moisture less sensitive, and precipitation independent of available energy. Drought metrics are only slightly sensitive to changes in the variability of the drivers. An additional driver of drought is the response of plants to increased CO2. This process reduces evapotranspiration and increases soil moisture, and generally causes less soil moisture drought. In contrast, the associated increase in available energy generally causes an increase in PDSI drought. These differing sensitivities need to be taken into consideration when developing adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty about biases common across models and about unknown and unmodeled feedbacks is important for the tails of temperature change distributions and thus for climate risk assessments. This paper develops a hierarchical Bayes framework that explicitly represents these and other sources of uncertainty. It then uses models’ estimates of albedo, carbon cycle, cloud, and water vapor–lapse rate feedbacks to generate posterior probability distributions for feedback strength and equilibrium temperature change. The posterior distributions are especially sensitive to prior beliefs about models’ shared structural biases: nonzero probability of shared bias moves some probability mass toward lower values for climate sensitivity even as it thickens the distribution’s positive tail. Obtaining additional models of these feedbacks would not constrain the posterior distributions as much as narrowing prior beliefs about shared biases or, potentially, obtaining feedback estimates having biases uncorrelated with those impacting climate models. Carbon dioxide concentrations may need to fall below current levels to maintain only a 10% chance of exceeding official 2°C limits on global average temperature change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New automated observation systems for use in passenger aircraft to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other trace species have been developed and are described in this paper. The Continuous CO2 Measuring Equipment (CME) is composed mainly of a nondispersive infrared analyzer, a datalogger, and two calibration cylinders for in situ CO2 measurements. The Automatic Air Sampling Equipment (ASE), on the other hand, is designed for flask sampling; the instrument, connected to a metal bellows pump, is made up of a specially designed control board and can accommodate 12 flasks. The CME platform can be used to conduct high-frequency measurements of CO2 for obtaining a detailed spatial observation over a wide area, while ASE, despite the limited flight frequency, can provide useful distributions not only of CO2 but also various trace gas species, as well as their isotopic ratios. ASE and CME are installed on the racks in the forward cargo compartment of the aircraft and the air bypass intake is mounted on the air-conditioning duct upstream of the recirculation fan. Both sets of sampling equipment are automatically controlled through input of relevant flight parameters from the aircraft data system. Their deployment in a Boeing 747-400 aircraft was approved by the aviation regulatory agencies in the United States and Japan through issuance of the supplemental type certificate (STC), while the approval for installation of CME in a Boeing 777-200ER was also obtained via STC. First measurement results of CO2 variations obtained by CME and ASE deployed on Japan Airlines (JAL) aircraft are reported herein. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) has been used to examine the middle atmosphere response to CO2 doubling. The radiative-photochemical response induced by doubling CO2 alone and the response produced by changes in prescribed SSTs are found to be approximately additive, with the former effect dominating throughout the middle atmosphere. The paper discusses the overall response, with emphasis on the effects of SST changes, which allow a tropospheric response to the CO2 forcing. The overall response is a cooling of the middle atmosphere accompanied by significant increases in the ozone and water vapor abundances. The ozone radiative feedback occurs through both an increase in solar heating and a decrease in infrared cooling, with the latter accounting for up to 15% of the total effect. Changes in global mean water vapor cooling are negligible above ∼30 hPa. Near the polar summer mesopause, the temperature response is weak and not statistically significant. The main effects of SST changes are a warmer troposphere, a warmer and higher tropopause, cell-like structures of heating and cooling at low and middlelatitudes in the middle atmosphere, warming in the summer mesosphere, water vapor increase throughout the domain, and O3 decrease in the lower tropical stratosphere. No noticeable change in upward-propagating planetary wave activity in the extratropical winter–spring stratosphere and no significant temperature response in the polar winter–spring stratosphere have been detected. Increased upwelling in the tropical stratosphere has been found to be linked to changed wave driving at low latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the three-dimensional Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), which treats atmospheric dynamics, radiation, and chemistry interactively for the height range from the earth’s surface to the thermosphere (approximately 250 km). It is based on the latest version of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, which is extended to include important radiative and dynamical processes of the upper atmosphere and is coupled to a chemistry module containing 48 compounds. The model is applied to study the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on the atmosphere, represented, on the one hand, by the 11-yr solar cycle and, on the other hand, by a doubling of the present-day concentration of carbon dioxide. The numerical experiments are analyzed with the focus on the effects on temperature and chemical composition in the mesopause region. Results include a temperature response to the solar cycle by 2 to 10 K in the mesopause region with the largest values occurring slightly above the summer mesopause. Ozone in the secondary maximum increases by up to 20% for solar maximum conditions. Changes in winds are in general small. In the case of a doubling of carbon dioxide the simulation indicates a cooling of the atmosphere everywhere above the tropopause but by the smallest values around the mesopause. It is shown that the temperature response up to the mesopause is strongly influenced by changes in dynamics. During Northern Hemisphere summer, dynamical processes alone would lead to an almost global warming of up to 3 K in the uppermost mesosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concern about tile climatic effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO2 has resulted in a growing need, both scientifically and politically, to monitor atmospheric C02. The development of a satellite instrument that could measure tile global distribution of atmospheric CO2 would greatly improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle and provide a means of monitoring regional sources and sinks. In this paper the potential of a proposed nadir-viewing, satellite-based remote sounding instrument consisting of gas-filter correlation radiometers (GFCRs) tuned to tile 6300-(1.6 μ) and 5000-cm-1 (2μm) regions to globally measure the atmospheric C0? column is analyzed. Although the design of such an instrument would present some engineering challenges, tile proposed instrument has significant potential. Such an instrument should be able to measure the atmospheric CO2 column to a precision better than 1 ppmv. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional coupled soil–vegetation–atmosphere model is used to study changes and interactions between climate and the ecosystem in East Asia due to increased atmospheric CO[sub 2] . The largest simulated climate changes are due to the radiative influence of CO[sub 2] , modified slightly by vegetation feedbacks. Annual precipitation increases by about 20% in coastal areas of northern China and in central China, but only by 8% in southern China. The strongest warming of up to 4°C occurs in summer in northern China. Generally, the climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO[sub 2] except for inland areas of northern China, where it becomes warmer and drier. Most of the changes discussed in this paper are associated with changes in the East Asian monsoon, which is intensified under doubled CO[sub 2] . The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. In some coastal and central areas around 40°N, temperate deciduous forests expand northward, replacing grassland due to warmer and wetter climate. Evergreen taiga retreats in the coastal northeast, causing extra cooling feedback due to less snow masking. The largest changes occur in extensive inland regions northward of 40°N, where deserts and shrub land expand due to warmer and drier conditions, and water supply is a critical factor for vegetation. These northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1979, sensors on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) series of polar meteorological satellites have provided continuous measurements of the earth's surface and atmosphere. One of these sensors, the Television Infrared Observational Satellite (TIROS-N) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), observes earth-emitted radiation in the infrared—with the High-Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS)—and in the microwave—with the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU)—portions of the spectrum. The NOAA and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Pathfinder program was designed to make these data more readily accessible to the community in the form of processed geophysical variables (temperature, water vapor, cloud characteristics, and so on) through the “interpretation” of the infrared and microwave radiances. All presently developed interpretation algorithms more or less directly rely on the comparison between a set of observed and a set of simulated radiances. For that reason, the accuracy of the simulation directly influences that of the interpretation of radiances in terms of thermodynamic variables. Comparing simulations to observations is the key to a better knowledge of the main sources of errors affecting either the former or the latter. Instrumental radiometric problems, radiosonde, surface data, and forward radiative transfer model limitations as well as difficulties raised by differences in space and in time of satellite and radiosonde observations (collocations) have long been studied in detail. Less attention has been paid to errors, presumed negligible, generated by the absence of consideration of main absorbing gases (CO[sub 2] , N[sub 2] O, CO, O[sub 3] , and so on) atmospheric seasonal cycles and/or annual trends. In this paper, all important sources of variability of the observations and of the simulations are first reviewed. Then it is shown that analyzing, at different time... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes four methods for estimating the spatial degrees of freedom (dof ) of a climate field: the x 2 method, the Z method, the S method, and the B method. The results show that the B method provides the most accurate estimate of the dof. The x 2 method, S method, and Z method yield underestimates when the number of realizations of the field is not sufficiently large or the field's mean and variance vary with respect to spatial location. The dof of the monthly surface temperature field is studied numerically. The B method shows that the dof of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has an obvious annual cycle, which is around 60 in the winter months and 90 in the summer months. The dof for the Southern Hemisphere (SH) varies between 35 and 50, with large values during its winter months and small ones during its summer months. The dof of the global temperature field demonstrates a similar annual cycle to that of the NH. The dof estimated from the observational data is smaller than that from the GFDL GCM model output of the surface air temperature. In addition, the model output for the SH shows the opposite phase of the seasonal cycle of the dof: large dof in summer and small ones in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]