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This paper presents a detailed analysis of how future climate change may affect water availability in a typical arid endorheic river basin, the Heihe River basin (HRB), in northwest China. The analysis is based on the improved Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data from the upper HRB and is used to predict future hydrological responses. Six general circulation models (GCMs), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), are downscaled to construct future climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the climate of the upper HRB will likely become warmer and wetter in the near future (2021-50), with the largest increase in precipitation occurring in the summer. Correspondingly, the basinwide evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are projected to increase over the same period. The mean temperature in the near future is projected to rise, relative to the recent 30 years (1981-2010), by 1.2°-1.7°C under scenario RCP4.5 and by 1.4°-2.1°C under scenario RCP8.5. The mean precipitation is projected to increase by 10.0%-16.6% under scenario RCP4.5, and by 10.5%-22.0% under scenario RCP8.5. The mean values of evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are expected to increase by 14.2%, 4.3%, and 11.4%, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5 and to increase by 18.7%, 5.8%, and 12.8%, respectively, under scenario RCP8.5. Though the model simulations forecast an increase in streamflows in the headwater region of the HRB, future water availability varies significantly over space and time. The findings of this study will help to frame more effective water management strategies for the HRB under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major research plan entitled "Integrated research on the eco-hydrological process of the Heihe River Basin" was launched by the National Natural Science Foundation of China in 2010. One of the key aims of this research plan is to establish a research platform that integrates observation, data management, and model simulation to foster twenty-first-century watershed science in China. Based on the diverse needs of inter-disciplinary studies within this research plan, a program called the Heihe Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (HiWATER) was implemented. The overall objective of HiWATER is to improve the observability of hydrological and ecological processes, to build a world-class watershed observing system, and to enhance the applicability of remote sensing in integrated eco-hydrological studies and water resource management at the basin scale. This paper introduces the background, scientific objectives, and experimental design of HiWATER. The instrumental setting and airborne mission plans are also outlined. The highlights are the use of a flux observing matrix and an eco-hydrological wireless sensor network to capture multiscale heterogeneities and to address complex problems, such as heterogeneity, scaling, uncertainty, and closing water cycle at the watershed scale. HiWATER was formally initialized in May 2012 and will last four years until 2015. Data will be made available to the scientific community via the Environmental and Ecological Science Data Center for West China. International scientists are welcome to participate in the field campaign and use the data in their analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]