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• To solve the forecasting problems of time-lead and nonlinearity in a system, a novel grey multivariable model is proposed. • To reduce the morbidity of the model, the solution of the proposed model is deduced through a derivation method. • The grey prediction evolution algorithm is employed to find the optimal value of parameters. • The validity of the new model was verified by three examples and applied to house price forecasting. Time lags or leads and non-linearity of complex systems are critical to address in accurate scientific prediction. However, few studies have focused on time-lead and nonlinear models with limited information. Therefore, this paper aims to develop a novel grey multivariate model with time-lead operator τ and nonlinear factor r from the perspective of this problem. Next, the solution of the proposed model is deduced through a derivation method to reduce the morbidity of the model. Then, the parameter identification of the model is given on the basis of the least-squares method. The grey prediction evolution algorithm is employed to find the optimal value of parameters τ and r to meet the minimum errors. Finally, house prices of Wuhan, Beijing and Shanghai in China are performed to verify the validity and reliability of the new model. The results demonstrate the model we proposed has satisfactory prediction precision, demonstrating that time-lead and nonlinear factor in the model is reasonable. At the end of the paper, the house prices of these three cities from 2022 to 2028 are also predicted. The average annual growth rate in the three regions is 2.49%, 3.57% and 2.97%, respectively. These results are useful to policy analysis regarding house price correlations. They provide insights for market investors and policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• City-centric global multi-region input-output models for Beijing and Shanghai are developed. • Factor contribution and critical path analysis are adopted. • Sector aggregation effect varies across sectoral datasets. Sector aggregation under the input-output framework may lead to deviation in results and the lack of detailed sectoral information, which hinder the targeted implementation of accurate sectoral adjustment policies. This paper explores the effects of sector aggregation on the embodied carbon emission of the residential consumptions of Beijing and Shanghai based on the city-centric global multi-region input-output (CCG-MRIO) model. Integrating with structural path analysis and structural decomposition analysis, the impacts of sector aggregation on the identifying of critical emission transmission paths and driving forces are also revealed. Three sector aggregation datasets are discussed to track the sector aggregation effect in 2012 and 2017. The findings show that the carbon emission results at 8 sector level better align with the results at the 22 sector level than those at 32 sector level. Moreover, sector aggregation will lead to the absence of some critical carbon transmission paths, some factor contributions on carbon emission also changed their directions at different sector levels. On the basis of clarifying the sector aggregation effect on embodied carbon emission, the research results provide a reference for similar studies to select the appropriate level of sector aggregation, to realize the goal of simplifying the calculation or gaining more detailed sectoral emission information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: External wall insulation plays an important role in building energy consumption through affecting cooling and heating energy uses. In this paper, a study on the effects of external wall insulation thickness on annual cooling and heating energy uses under different Chinese climates is reported. Firstly, two indexes: Energy Gain Ratio (EGR) and Relative Variation Ratio (RVR) of the sum of annual cooling and heating energy uses, to assess the effects of external wall insulation thickness on energy saving potential are introduced. Secondly, a model space having four different exterior zones facing four different orientations in an office building is presented and the settings of the model space described. Lastly, the simulated annual cooling and heating energy uses for the four different exterior zones at different external wall insulation thicknesses under three different climates in China, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing, are reported. The results suggested that energy saving was significant by increasing the external wall insulation thickness in exterior zones facing all orientations under Beijing’s climate, since the heating energy use was dominant and can be reduced remarkably with the increase in insulation thickness. Under Shanghai’s climate, increasing external wall insulation thickness to over 26mm would not reduce the sum of annual heating and cooling energy uses in the south-facing exterior zone, but would help save energy in exterior zones facing the other three orientations. For all exterior zones under Guangzhou’s climate, it was, however, hardly possible to reduce the sum of annual heating and cooling energy uses by increasing the external wall insulation thickness. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

With the boom of big data, the Internet contains more and more personal behavior information, but it is difficult to extract effectively. A model involving multivariate processing capability must be constructed to deal with these time series with complex characteristics. In this paper, a novel hybrid model embedding Baidu Search Index is therefore proposed to implement multi-step ahead subway passenger flow forecasting. Firstly, we collect data from informative Baidu Search Index, reduce dimensionality, and screen out the powerful predictors by statistical analysis. Secondly, we extract matching common modes at similar time scales between the subway passenger flow and screened Baidu Search Index via multivariate mode decomposition being optimized by multi-objective algorithm. Furthermore, to eliminate pseudo statistical causality, we select the optimal combination of modal components between subway passenger flow and its corresponding Baidu Search Index at each time scale by an innovative multi–modal analysis strategy. Thirdly, we reconstruct the forecasting values of each selected optimal combination as the final results. The empirical results of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou show that the proposed model can significantly outperform six benchmark models in both the level and directional accuracy. So introducing Baidu Search Index creates a sound opportunity to enhance the subway passenger flow forecasting ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Based on the generic dynamic building energy simulation environment, EnergyPlus, the simulation model of energy recovery ventilator (ERV) is developed in this paper. With different indoor temperature set-points, the energy performance of ERV along with the availability of ERV is investigated both for Beijing and Shanghai weathers in China in terms of the ratio of heat recovery to energy supply by HVAC devices and ERV. Simulation results show that the seasonal average of the ratio is linear with indoor temperature set-points. The availability of ERV in Shanghai is better than that in Beijing during the winter. In summer, the utilization of ERV is uneconomical if the indoor temperature set-point is higher than 24°C for the Beijing climate. The indoor temperature set-points have the reverse effects to the availability of ERV in the mid-season and to that in the hottest months. Meanwhile, the heating amount recovery in summer and the cooling amount recovery in winter, both of which impair the strong points of the energy recovery, are analyzed quantitatively. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Agricultural sector is the basic industry supporting the construction and development of national economy. With the continuous deterioration of agricultural pollution, measuring and understanding agricultural total factor productivity (AGTFP) is the important premise to achieve agricultural green development and clean production. Regarding carbon emissions and agricultural non-point source pollution (ANSP) as undesired outputs, this paper applies a three-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method combined with the Slack-Based Measure (SBM) model to eliminate the influences of environmental factors and random errors and explore the real AGTFP of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017.On this basis, the spatial distribution and dynamic changes of AGTFP before and after adjustment are further discussed to seek the underlying reasons. The empirical results demonstrate that AGTFP is lower when carbon emissions and ANSP are both considered, and it decreases from east to west in StageⅠbut the Northeast region surpasses the East to achieve the highest productivity after removing the interferences. Moreover, China's AGTFP has been restricted by the external environment, and superior external environment disguises the poor management efficiency of Beijing and Shanghai. Therefore, some policy implications to balance agricultural environment and economic development are proposed. [Display omitted] • Non-point source pollution and CO 2 are integrated to measure agricultural green efficiency. • A three-stage SBM-DEA approach is employed to calculate the real agricultural green total factor productivity. • Different environmental factors have different effects on the slack of agricultural inputs. • China's agricultural green total factor productivity is restricted by the external environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon prices are low and fluctuate greatly since Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme pilots were operated. This paper discusses the price drivers in the pilots, using structural breaks test and autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that oversupply of allowances, low auction prices and use of China certified emission reductions will cause remarkable decline on carbon prices; the expansion of carbon market and centralized trading will rise carbon prices. Oil prices are positively correlated with carbon prices, and coal prices are negatively related with carbon prices. Carbon-intensive product prices also affect carbon prices. Chemical prices are positively linked with carbon prices in Shenzhen, while negatively related with those in Beijing and Shanghai, for differences in sectoral coverage. Nonferrous prices have positive impacts on carbon prices in Beijing but negative impacts on those in Shenzhen, for differences in industrial structure. Financial markets and weather have limited impacts on carbon prices. Our results provide policy implications for the development of pilots and the national carbon market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The capacity allocation is a practically significant factor to influence the quality of the train timetables in the rail operations, especially under the fluctuation of passenger demands. This paper aims to investigate a detailed description for the structure and characteristics of the capacity allocation problem under random demand in the high-speed rail network. A two-stage stochastic integer programming model is provided to get the capacity allocation solutions to meet random fluctuations of passenger demands in the daily operations, which incorporates demand uncertainty and makes no assumptions for the rail network structure and distribution of passenger demands. Given the inherent complexity for solving this problem, we provide a solution framework including a heuristic algorithm based on tabu search in order to obtain a near-optimal solution and strategies to obtain an efficient timetable and train formation adjustment. Finally, two sets of examples, in which a sample rail network with 5 stations and the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail network data are adopted as the experimental environments to illustrate the performance and effectiveness of the proposed methods. • A two-stage stochastic program model for train capacity allocation is presented. • A heuristic algorithm based on tabu search is provided to solve the problem. • A strategy for an efficient timetable and train formation adjustment is provided. • Numerical experiments are given to illustrate the proposed approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]