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The development of China's highway infrastructure has led to a rapid increase in carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions while facilitating social and economic development. This paper introduces highway mileage and CO 2 emissions into the traditional production density model, using agglomeration as a mediating variable, to theoretically discuss the path through which highway infrastructure influences CO 2 emissions. We then use the spatial Durbin model (SDM) to verify the explanatory power of the expanded production density model based on panel data of China's 278 cities from 2003 to 2016. Empirical results indicate that (1) there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between highway infrastructure and CO 2 emissions in both local and peripheral cities; (2) highway infrastructure affects local CO 2 emissions through the agglomeration pathway but impacts CO 2 emissions in peripheral cities mainly through the spatial spillover effect of highway infrastructure; and (3) the U-shaped impact of highway infrastructure on CO 2 emissions in western China is diametrically opposed to the results for the east, the central region and the total sample. Therefore, China needs to fully consider the environmental effects of agglomeration to formulate a global emission reduction strategy when building highway infrastructure. Moreover, strategies based on the different stages of highway infrastructure development should be enacted and should be part of a spatially synergistic joint emission reduction mechanism while considering the characteristics of regional development. • The study extends the production density model and verifies the explanatory power. • The spatial correlation between variables is tested by the spatial Durbin model. • Regional heterogeneity is discussed, and the reasons for this are analysed. • The results are corrected using GS2SLS with slope as an instrumental variable. • Related policy recommendations are made for low carbon development in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]