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China’s paper industry consumes a lot of energy and emits huge amounts of pollutions. The Chinese government over the past decades has done a lot to promote energy efficiency of the industry. This paper studies the impact of industrial polices to improve energy efficiency. The energy efficiency change is firstly studied under a framework of total factor efficiency. On this basis, different econometric models are built to discuss the detailed energy efficiency characteristics of the paper industry. The main results are as follow: (i) ownership structure did influence the energy efficiency, but the influence is different in different conditions; (ii) energy efficiency of the paper industry can be improved by economies of scale; (iii) market competition can to some extent overcome the motivation and supervision problem that often occur in state-owned companies; (iv) energy price cannot play the role of resource allocation well in China. Finally, based on our findings, some suggestions are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The 80 km/h speed limit is associated with a significant reduction in fatalities. • Estimated benefits are between 300 and 350 lives saved. • Estimated effects vary between counties, illustrating the potential impact depending on the local context. • The dynamics of the measure evolve over time. Introduction : Speeding is considered to be a major contributor to road fatalities and injuries worldwide. Inappropriate speeding behavior is associated with a high casualty burden. It could be responsible for at least 30% of road accidents. Method : In 2018, the French authorities decided to introduce a new speed limit. They lowered the speed limit to 80 km/h on the unseparated interurban network. The aim was to reduce the number of fatalities and injuries and to implement some measures in line with international commitments. This paper uses different econometric models applied to time series for different groups of counties. Results : The results show a significant positive contribution of the new speed limit. The estimated number of lives saved is between 300 and 350. The overall reduction in the number of fatalities is 10%. The results also show a differentiated impact according to the local context and the different dynamics at play. Conclusions and Practical Applications : The results of this paper are in line with the scientific literature on speed limit reductions. They represent a validation of a debated public decision, while at the same time consolidating the body of knowledge on the subject, helping the decision-maker to adopt an appropriate measure to improve road safety performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green finance is a financial innovation that directs capital allocation towards green industries. How will this affect regional carbon emissions? Based on the data on green finance and carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2019, this paper employs a multivariate linear regression model and a spatial econometric model to empirically study the impact of green finance on carbon emissions. The results find that (1) green finance significantly reduces provincial carbon emissions, specifically through promoting a cleaner energy structure and an advanced industrial structure, as well as improving the quality of green innovation. (2) Heterogeneity exists between regions. In eastern regions and areas characterized by high levels of marketization and minimal fiscal pressure, the role of green finance in promoting provincial carbon emission reduction is more pronounced. (3) Spatial econometric analysis found that green finance has a significant spatial spillover effect on carbon reduction in adjacent regions. Specifically, the flow of green resources and green ideas between provinces facilitates the formation of regional radiation, while green competition generates a siphon effect on neighboring regions. These findings provide some meaningful policy implications to achieve China's dual-carbon goal by promoting green finance. • Green finance has significantly reduced China's provincial carbon emissions. • The upgrading of energy structure and industrial structure is a positive channel to reduce carbon emissions. • Green innovation strengthens the carbon reduction effect of green finance, but reveals the potential "greenwashing". • Green finance has a significant spatial spillover effect on carbon reduction in adjacent regions. • Policymakers should develop flexible, dynamic and coordinated green finance development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how green fiscal expenditure affects G reen T otal F actor E nergy E fficiency (GTFEE) from both non-spatial and spatial perspectives based on selected panel data of 254 cities in China. The results of the non-spatial panel model indicate that green fiscal expenditure has a significant positive impact on GTFEE. A comparative study of different econometric models shows that the main parts of the results are largely consistent, which indicates that the conclusions are robust. The spatial autocorrelation findings indicate a statistically significant presence of positive spatial spillover effects in the GTFEE of Chinese cities. Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model (DSDM) indicate that green fiscal expenditure has a similarly significant positive effect on GTFEE, which will increase over time. This paper considers different spatial weight matrices and changing measures to measure GTFEE, and the conclusions remain robust. Furthermore, industrial structure upgrading, and digital economy are vital in strengthening the relationship between local governments' green fiscal expenditure and GTFEE. According to heterogeneity analysis, green fiscal expenditure has a more significant effect on the GTFEE in mature resource-based cities and non-resource-based cities. • Influence factors of green total factor energy efficiency (GTFEE) is explored. • Green fiscal expenditure (GFE) has a significant positive impact on GTFEE. • Significant positive spatial spillover effects exist in the GTFEE of Chinese cities. • Industrial structure upgrading and digital economy are vital for GFE and GTFEE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protecting the environment and increasing the domestic value-added rate of exports (DVARE) are hot issues for high-quality economic development. This paper explores how environmental regulation affects the DVARE. This paper constructs a dynamic spatial econometric model using the data of 285 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020. It empirically tests the impact of environmental regulation on the DVARE. The research results show that environmental regulation has a nonlinear impact on the DVARE. Environmental regulation has a U-shaped effect on DVARE that first decreases and then increases. Furthermore, environmental regulation also has a positive spatial spillover effect. The heterogeneity analysis also shows that cities have different administrative levels, geographical locations, size, and environmental regulations' impact and spillover effects on the DVARE are also different. This paper also finds that the spatial spillover effect of environmental regulation is limited to 1100 KM by constructing a spatial attenuation matrix. This result is still robust after selecting appropriate instrumental variables, replacing DVARE, environmental regulation intensity measure and spatial weight matrix. The final mechanism test found that environmental regulation has promoted the increase of the DVARE through cost effects and resource allocation effects. However, the innovation effect mechanism is insignificant. [Display omitted] • Environmental regulation has a nonlinear U-shaped effect on the export value-added rate. • Environmental regulation has a positive spatial spillover effect. • Environmental regulation has heterogeneity in administrative level, geographical location and size. • The spatial spillover effect decays within 1100 KM. • Cost effects and resource allocation effects are the main mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Energy-efficient home retrofits of Slovenian house owners are studied. • Econometric models analyse partial and integral approach to retrofits. • Drivers and barriers for the building retrofit decisions are determined. • Various information sources influence energy-efficient retrofit decisions. • Free public energy audits have failed to deliver the expected outcome. Abstract The paper examines what determines household energy-efficient retrofit decisions in Slovenia based on analysis of more than 1000 single family-house owners, survey respondents. While previous studies typically stress the importance of professional energy audits, this paper shows that other formal and informal sources of information and advice also play a significant role in informing homeowners and fostering energy-efficient retrofit decisions. Compared to partial retrofit measures, an integral approach to retrofits is more strongly associated with estimated energy saving potential, household income and professional advice seeking. On the other hand, free public energy consultation appears to have failed to deliver the expected outcome. Results of econometric analysis on barriers and drivers for building energy retrofits call for strengthening the financial incentives, informing and educating the public through various information sources, combined with the redesign of public Energy Advisory Network to increase the reach of residential building energy-efficiency policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the unstable global political situation and increasing uncertainty of worldwide trade, governments and enterprises value more on domestic relocation and cooperation which could lead to a tendency of more pollution transfer within a country. Previous studies have revealed the impact of environmental regulation on enterprises' relocation, but the relationship between urban environmental regulation and its position in the inter-urban pollution transfer network has not been revealed. This paper studies how environmental regulations imposed by local governments have influenced the inter-urban pollution transfer network within a country. Based on theoretical analysis, we apply the econometric models to a unique dataset on firm-level relocation activities of listing polluting enterprises in China from 2010 through 2019. We find that the inter-urban pollution transfer network with hierarchical structures evolves rapidly, and there is increasing nationwide pollution transfer between cities in China. Environmental regulation positively affects urban net out-degree centrality in the pollution transfer network by increasing polluting enterprises' compliance costs. There is a spillover effect of environmental regulations, and environmental regulations in neighboring cities impact more on local net out-degree centrality in the pollution transfer network. • The inter-urban pollution transfer network has hierarchical structures. • Environmental regulation positively affects urban position in the network. • Environmental regulations have spillover effects on urban position in the network. • Polluting enterprises' relocation is driven by compliance costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental pollution is an essential constraint to the sustainable growth of regional economy. This paper uses the super efficiency slacks-based measure data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) model to measure the efficiency of sustainable economic growth (ESEG) in the European Union (EU) and applies the spatial econometric model to explore the impact of environmental regulation intensity (ERI) on ESEG in the EU. The results show that the ESEG in the EU shows an N-shaped growth trend and the spatial pattern of "Western Europe > Eastern Europe > Central Europe > Northern Europe > Southern Europe" from 2001 to 2019. The impact of ERI on the ESEG in the EU presents a "U" shape, indicating that increasing ERI first reduces ESGE, and after reaching the turning point of ESGE, continuing to increase ERI will promote ESGE. Further analysis shows the ERI have spatial spillover effect on the ESEG, while the spatial spillover effect in the eastern and western regions of the EU is different. Improving the ERI in the western region is not only conducive to the ESEG of the country but also has a positive spillover effect on neighboring countries. However, the spatial agglomeration effect in the eastern region is not significant. In addition to environmental regulation, labor & capital structure, research and development (R&D) expenditure, GDP per capita and trade value have a significant impact on the ESGE of a country and neighboring countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Competition and cooperation in the environmental governance of cities are popular around the world. However, empirical research based on the prefecture-level city level in China is rare. Since the central government of China proposed to strengthen the construction of ecological civilization, whether there are strategic interactions of "race to the bottom" or "race to the top" among local governments is an important issue of academic and public interest. This paper constructs a game-theoretic model to reveal the strategic interactions of environmental governance among local governments. And then, based on the data of 221 prefecture-level cities collected from 2007 to 2018, the spatial econometric model is used to conduct multi-dimensional testing "race to the bottom" behavior of environmental protection expenditure among local governments. Moreover, this paper further analyses the impact of performance assessment indicators on the strategic interactions of local governments, so as to provide policy reference for improving environmental public welfare. Empirical results suggest that local governments in China show strategic imitation in environmental protection spending decisions, which is manifested as "race to the bottom", and this behavior is gradually weakening with the strengthening of environmental protection assessment. Furthermore, environmental performance indicators relieve the government's strategic imitation, while economic performance indicators intensify the government's strategy imitation. Thus, reasonable performance evaluation indicators are conducive to benign strategic interaction among governments. Finally, the current environmental protection expenditure has not yet significantly affected pollution reduction, providing new evidence for the "race to the bottom" behavior of local governments. Based on the findings of our study, the central government should optimize the performance evaluation system of local officials and strengthen the implementation of the environmental supervision system and accountability mechanism. Meanwhile, the local governments should further increase environmental protection expenditure, and enhance the supervision and utilization efficiency of environmental protection funds. • Strategic interaction among 221 prefecture-level cities in China was multi-dimensionally studied. • It has been found that China's local governments have strategic imitation as "race to the bottom". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization nowadays is a very important driving force for China's social and economic development, but the resource shortage and pollution accompanied have troubled China especially in the urban areas. As the capital of China, Beijing is a mega-city and densely populated. Its development and prosperity is supported by a large amount of material consumption, rendering a severe shortage of natural resources and serious pollution. Underlying the premise of maintaining its development and prosperity, Beijing is facing an enormous challenge in dealing with heavy pollution load. Therefore, it is a very important step to decouple the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution. This paper makes a study on the relationship between the economic growth and pollution load for Beijing based on the analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) which builds an econometric model using data over the period 1990–2014. We found the intensity of most pollutants have arrived at the turning point around 2006 while the total amount of most emissions remain at a high level, this is a favorable initiation for the transforming the development patterns as it has begun to decouple the pollution intensity and economy. Based on the statistics, this paper further analyzes the driving factors behind the active change. We found that the adjustment of industrial structure, a reasonable city planning, powerful measures in pollutants control and technology advance, contribute a lot to the transformation. Especially in the recent years, Beijing and correlative regions took joint measures to prevent and reduce air pollution, which have an apparent functions. Finally, this paper proposes several suggestions for Beijing to decouple the economic growth and environmental pollution load, based on these important conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The BEKK and DCC econometric models of VAR-mGARCH type are studied on wind speed data. • These are spatio-temporal models which allow for cross-volatility modeling. • The models are studied in their data generation and forecasting aspects. • Their volatility forecasting ability is used in an energy portfolio control problem. Abstract This paper evaluates the application of a family of VAR-mGARCH (Vector AutoRegressive with multivariate AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) volatility models to the problem of modeling (i.e. generating correct in-sample scenarios) and forecasting in a probabilistic way three univariate but mutually dependent wind speed hourly series. The evaluation starts from the consideration that optimal modeling and optimal forecasting are not necessarily attained by the same models, and that they are assessed in different ways. The proposed VAR-mGARCH family, originated in Finance, consists of the VAR-BEKK (VAR - Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner) model and the VAR-DCC (VAR - Dynamic Conditional Correlation) model, the latter seen as the simplified and more scalable version of the former. These models were never used in wind speed studies before. Both models will be used with Gaussian innovations, and the VAR-DCC model will be also used with Student's t innovations. These models, which are able to dynamically couple volatilities, are compared to two benchmark model sets, the first set consisting of three independent univariate AR-GARCH (i.e. non-vector) models, the second set consisting of an individual VAR model without the GARCH sector. These benchmark models cannot dynamically couple volatilities. Both benchmark model sets will be used with Gaussian innovations. The time series used for the evaluation are taken from three North-American wind metering sites located at few tens of kilometers from each other. In order to highlight the usefulness of choosing autoregressive coupled volatility schemes for modeling and forecasting spatially and temporally varying wind speed data, a controlled variance electricity generation portfolio example of Markowitz type, typical of Energy Finance, is also discussed at some length. In all, it is concluded that the VAR-DCC model with Student's t innovations is the most balanced choice for this data set when the three goals of modeling, forecasting and scalability in the number of considered sites are taken into account at once. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the topic of robot identification. The usual identification method makes use of the inverse dynamic model (IDM) and the least squares (LS) technique while robot is tracking exciting trajectories. Assuming an appropriate bandpass filtering, good results can be obtained. However, the users are in doubt whether the columns of the observation matrix (the regressors) are uncorrelated (exogenous) or correlated (endogenous) with the error terms. The exogeneity condition is rarely verified in a formal way whereas it is a fundamental condition to obtain unbiased LS estimates. In Econometrics, the Durbin-Wu-Hausman test (DWH-test) is a formal statistic for investigating whether the regressors are exogenous or endogenous. However, the DWH-test cannot be straightforwardly used for robot identification because it is assumed that the set of instruments is valid. In this paper, a Revised DWH-test suitable for robot identification is proposed. The revised DWH-test validates/invalidates the instruments chosen by the user and validates the exogeneity assumption through the calculation of the QR factorization of the augmented observation matrix combined with a F -test if required. The experimental results obtained with a 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) industrial robot validate the proposed statistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electrical energy (EE) price plays a significant role in the economic assessment of industrial processes. PSE/CAPE applications are often based on economic evaluations/optimizations where EE price and its possible dynamic evolution are important input data. Planning, scheduling, on-line optimization (dynamic) conceptual design, and feasibility studies are some of the applications where short-, medium-, and long-term predictions of EE quotations are involved. The paper discusses the main issues that contribute to EE quotations such as geographical, meteorological, seasonal, political, social, and financial terms. EE prices show a significant dependency on crude oil quotations with a time-delay of about a quarter/season. An econometric model comprising both linear and periodic components with an implicit stochastic term delivered by the reference component is first commented, then identified, and finally validated respect to real EE quotations. The paper provides also a discussion on how to forecast EE prices ranging from short- to long-term horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Official promotion assessment standards are an important factor affecting the environmental governance of local governments. The study of the Chinese government adding the evaluation of ecological civilization to the official promotion assessment standards is of great significance to promote China's environmental pollution control and eco-environmental protection. Therefore, it is necessary to explore diversified ways of environmental governance from the perspective of improving the assessment standards for official promotion. Based on this background, this paper uses a variety of econometric models to compare the impact of traditional assessment standards and new assessment standards, including environmental factors on environmental quality. The results show that: (1) Different from the negative environmental impact brought by traditional assessment, when the official promotion assessment standards change, that is, when it is included in the environmental assessment, the official promotion incentive can actively promote the improvement of regional environmental quality, and this result has a more significant effect on the improvement of environmental quality in economically underdeveloped areas and vulnerable areas. (2) The mechanism test shows that the change of assessment standards will force officials to improve environmental quality by improving regional productivity. (3) the promotion of environmental supervision, represented by the development of information technology, helps strengthen the positive effect of the transformation of official assessment standards on the environment. However, it is unstable. This paper provides a useful reference for improving official promotion assessment standards, exploring diversified ways of environmental governance, and clarifying the effectiveness of the Chinese government's ecological environment reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a strong push within natural resource management to incorporate spatial structure into management regimes. However, discussions surrounding the appropriate designs of spatial management have largely been conceptual. This paper develops a spatial econometric model of fishing location choice using non-confidential data from the Great Barrier Reef coral trout commercial fishery. Harvest location decisions are modeled as a function of spatial patterns of expected economic returns. The preferred spatially dependent econometric model is shown to outperform ordinary least squares and fixed effects models in out-of-sample forecasting. Estimates from the spatial model reveal spatial spillover effects in fleet harvest location behavior. In particular, harvest activity at any given site is equally sensitive to same-site economic returns and surrounding-site economic returns. The econometric results are illustrated using a fee-based policy simulation. Results suggest non-spatial management is characterized by two inefficiencies. First, heterogeneity between sites is averaged, resulting a fee that is too high or too low across space. Second, fees that are too high or too low affect the fishing effort in nearby locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bankruptcy prediction has been a subject of interests for almost a century and it still ranks high among hottest topics in economics. The aim of predicting financial distress is to develop a predictive model that combines various econometric measures and allows to foresee a financial condition of a firm. In this domain various methods were proposed that were based on statistical hypothesis testing, statistical modeling (e.g., generalized linear models), and recently artificial intelligence (e.g., neural networks, Support Vector Machines, decision tress). In this paper, we propose a novel approach for bankruptcy prediction that utilizes Extreme Gradient Boosting for learning an ensemble of decision trees. Additionally, in order to reflect higher-order statistics in data and impose a prior knowledge about data representation, we introduce a new concept that we refer as to synthetic features. A synthetic feature is a combination of the econometric measures using arithmetic operations (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division). Each synthetic feature can be seen as a single regression model that is developed in an evolutionary manner. We evaluate our solution using the collected data about Polish companies in five tasks corresponding to the bankruptcy prediction in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th year. We compare our approach with the reference methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of an empirical study of the determinants of non-residential real estate values in Los Angeles County. The data base consists of 13, 370 property transactions from 1996 to 2005. Separate spatial econometric models are developed for industrial, commercial, retail and office properties. The study focuses on the impact on property values of environmental local amenities. Our analytical results provide insights on how local amenities may affect non-residential properties values and how the impact may differ across property types. Our empirical results offer evidence that explicitly modeling spatial dependence is necessary for hedonic non-residential property models where there is interest in local amenities. We also show that it is important to account for the temporal dimension since ignoring it can lead to misinterpretation of the real measure of spatial dependence over time. We find that open space, typically an amenity considered to be jointly valuable to firms and households, has either weak or non-robust effects on non-residential property values. On the other hand, the joint amenities coastal access, air pollution, weather and crime appear to have stable spatial correlations with property values across specifications. In contrast, those amenities that are likely only valued by firms, such as transportation access and proximity to concentrations of skilled workers, have robust and significant correlations with non-residential values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Introduction: This paper investigates potential gender and age differences in conviction and crash occurrence subsequent to being directed to attend Iowa''s Driver Improvement Program (DIP). Methods: Binary logit models were developed to investigate the factors that influence conviction occurrence after DIP by gender and age. Because of the low crash occurrence subsequent to DIP, association rules were applied to investigate the factors that influence crash occurrence subsequent to DIP, in lieu of econometric models. Results: There were statistical significant differences by driver gender, age, and conviction history in the likelihood of subsequent convictions. However, this paper found no association between DIP outcome, crash history, and crash occurrence. Impact on industry: Evaluating the differences in conviction and crash occurrence subsequent to DIP between female and male drivers, and among different age groups can lead to improvements of the effectiveness of DIPs and help to identify low-cost intervention measures, customized based on drivers’ gender and age, for improving driving behaviors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The purpose of this paper is to explain the sources of energy system lock-in. It presents a comparative analysis of the respective contributions of some features of increasing returns to adoption factors, i.e. learning-by-doing, learning-by-searching and returns to scale effects in explaining the technological change dynamics in the energy system. The paper is technically based on a critical analysis of the learning curve approach. Econometric estimation of learning and scale effects inherent to seven energy technologies were performed by the use of several learning curve specifications. These specifications permit to deal with some crucial issues related to the learning curve estimation which are associated with the problem of omitted variable bias, the endogeneity effects and the choice of learning indicators. Results show that dynamic economies from learning effects coupled with static economies from scale effects are responsible for the lock-in phenomena of the energy system. They also show that the magnitude of such effects is correlated with the technology life cycle (maturity). In particular, results point out that, 1) the emerging technologies exhibit low learning rates associated with diseconomies of scale which are argued to be symptomatic of the outset of the deployment of new technologies characterized by diffusion barriers and high level of uncertainty, 2) the evolving technologies present rather high learning rates meaning that they respond quickly to capacity expansion and R&D activities development, 3) conventional mature technologies display low learning rates but increasing returns to scale implying that they are characterized by a limited additional diffusion prospects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• We analysed the influencing factors of urban eco-efficiency in Western China. • The US-SBM model and spatial econometric models were used for 84 cities' data. • Urban eco-efficiency showed a fluctuating upward trend during 2004–2017. • Economic development and urbanization had U-shaped impact on urban eco-efficiency. • Four explanatory variables showed a positive impact on urban eco-efficiency. Improving eco-efficiency can promote sustainable development. This study first evaluated the urban eco-efficiency of 84 cities in Western China from 2004 to 2017 by the undesirable-super-slack-based measure (US-SBM) and analysed their spatiotemporal characteristics, and then investigated its influencing factors using spatial econometric models. The results indicated that the urban eco-efficiency in Western China was at a relatively low level and showed a fluctuating upward trend with the highest average value of 0.65; however, capital cities of Western China have improved their eco-efficiency rapidly. Furthermore, there were obvious spatial spill-over impacts of the urban eco-efficiency in Western China. This paper also found that both the economic development level and urbanization level have "U" shaped impacts on Western China's urban eco-efficiency, which decreases at first and then rises. Similarly, increasing the proportion of secondary industry promotes urban eco-efficiency, and FDI, trade activities, improved environmental regulations as well as technological innovation capabilities have a positive impact on urban eco-efficiency in Western China. This paper also put forward corresponding policy suggestions to promote Western China's urban eco-efficiency. The present study may be helpful for policy-makers to balance economic development and environmental protection in Western China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The digital economy is becoming increasingly important in the field of carbon governance. However, there is little literature examining the relationship between the digital economy and clean energy development. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring the relationship between the digital economy and clean energy and its spatial effects. We explored the effects of the digital economy using adouble fixed effects model and a spatial econometric model using 276 cities in China from 2011 to 2019 as the original data. We find that the digital economy can drive clean energy development. Technological innovation and city bank loans play an important mediating role in this. Second, we find that market-driven amplifies the positive effects of the digital economy compared with government intervention, and the effects of the digital economy are different under different regions. Finally, we find that the digital economy can drive clean energy not only in local cities, but also indirectly in neighboring cities. These facts suggest that the digital economy is an important way to drive clean energy development and thus effectively achieve sustainable development. Our study provides new ideas for building digital economy and clean energy development in emerging developing countries such as China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the extent and the determinants of global climate change beliefs. In contrast to former studies for the U.S. and other western countries, we focus on China due to its crucial role in international climate policy in conjunction with its vulnerability to global warming. The empirical analysis is based on unique data from a survey among more than 1000 adults in five Chinese cities. In line with former studies, our results reveal that the vast majority of almost 90% of the Chinese respondents believes in the existence of global warming. This seems to be a convenient and necessary basis for the support of costly public adaptation activities in China. Our econometric analysis reveals that already perceived experiences with extreme weather events (and particularly heatwaves) alone are strongly correlated with climate change beliefs and that physical or financial damages due to these events lead to even stronger relationships. Our estimation results additionally suggest females as well as people with a lower education, in medium ages, with higher household incomes, and from Chengdu or Shenyang to be more skeptical toward the existence of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing grid developments the spatial distribution of the electricity consumption is important. In Denmark the electricity grid consists of transmission – and local distribution grids with different voltages that are connected via transformer stations each covering a local area with between 10.000 and 100.000 customers. Data for the hourly electricity consumption at transformer stations shows that the profile of consumption differs considerably between local areas, and this is partly due to a different weight of categories of customers in the different areas. Categories of customers have quite distinct consumption profiles and contribute quite differently to the aggregated load profile. In forecasts, demand by categories of customers is expected to develop differently implying that both the level and the profile of consumption at each transformer stations are expected to change differently. Still, in the previous planning of the transmission grid in Denmark specific local conditions have not been considered. As a first step towards differentiated local load forecasts, the paper presents a new model for long term projections of consumption in local areas and illustrates a first use of the model related to the transmission grid planning by the Danish TSO Energinet.dk. The model is a distribution system that distributes hourly consumption in an aggregated area to hourly consumption at each transformer station. Using econometrics, the model is estimated on national statistics for the hourly consumption by categories of customers and data for the hourly consumption at each transformer station for the years 2009–2011. Applying the model for load forecasts, a major conclusion is that different transformer stations will experience different changes both in the level - and in the hourly profile of load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing transformation of the electricity market has reshaped the hydropower production paradigm for storage reservoir systems, with a shift from strategies oriented towards maximizing regional energy production to strategies aimed at the revenue maximization of individual systems. Indeed, hydropower producers bid their energy production scheduling 1 day in advance, attempting to align the operational plan with hours where the expected electricity prices are higher. As a result, the accuracy of 1-day ahead prices forecasts has started to play a key role in the short-term optimization of storage reservoir systems. This paper aims to contribute to the topic by presenting a comparative assessment of revenues provided by short-term optimizations driven by two econometric models. Both models are autoregressive time-adapting hourly forecasting models, which exploit the information provided by past values of electricity prices, with one model, referred to as Autoarimax, additionally considering exogenous variables related to electricity demand and production. The benefit of using the innovative Autoarimax model is exemplified in two selected hydropower systems with different storage capacities. The enhanced accuracy of electricity prices forecasting is not constant across the year due to the large uncertainties characterizing the electricity market. Our results also show that the adoption of Autoarimax leads to larger revenues with respect to the use of a standard model, increases that depend strongly on the hydropower system characteristics. Our results may be beneficial for hydropower companies to enhance the expected revenues from storage hydropower systems, especially those characterized by large storage capacity. • Short-term hydropower optimization driven by innovative econometric model. • Adoption of time-varying exogenous variables in electricity price forecasting. • Comparative assessment of revenue optimizations during an entire year of simulation. • Improved price forecast accuracy is not directly transformed into revenue gain. • Larger revenue gains are observed in reservoirs with high storage capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The national ecological footprint of both consumption and production are significantly spatially autocorrelated at global level. This violates the assumption of independently distributed errors of most conventional estimation techniques. Using a spatial econometric approach, this paper re-examine the relationship between economic growth and environmental impact for indicator of ecological footprint. The results do not show evidence of inverted U-shape Environmental Kuznets Curve. The domestic ecological footprint of consumption (or production) was obviously influenced by the ecological footprint of consumption (or production), income and biocapacity in neighborhood countries. We also found that the consumption footprint is more sensitive to domestic income, while production footprint is more sensitive to domestic biocapacity, which is often unnoticed in EKC hypothesis analyses that focus exclusively on the consumption-based or production-based indictors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• The EE of three urban agglomerations considering environmental benefits is calculated. • The EE of BTH, YRD, and PRD urban agglomerations exists significant differences. • The economic development and EE of BTH urban agglomeration is "inverted U-shaped". • Urbanization and energy structure have significant negative effects on EE. China's three major urban agglomerations, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Pearl River Delta (PRD), are expected the key areas of energy saving and emission reduction. Based on the connotation of energy saving and emission reduction, we constructed the input–output index system considering environmental benefits, and then used the SBM-Undesirable (Slack-based Measure Considering Undesirable-outputs) model to evaluate the energy saving and emission reduction efficiency (EE) of 49 cities in China's three major urban agglomerations during 2006–2018. Finally, the paper applied the spatial econometric model to explore the influencing factors of EE. The research results indicate that the overall EE across cities is relatively low, only 7 cities have been on the production frontier. The EE of China's three urban agglomerations is significant, presenting the development state of "PRD > YRD > BTH". The spatial autocorrelation of BTH urban agglomeration changed from positive to negative, the YRD urban agglomeration kept relatively stable positive spatial autocorrelation, while the spatial autocorrelation of PRD urban agglomeration was negative during the study period. The results of the spatial econometric analysis show that the relationship between economic development and EE is an "inverted U-shaped" in BTH urban agglomeration, while an "S-shaped" in YRD and PRD urban agglomerations. The urbanization and energy structure have significant negative effects on EE in three major urban agglomerations, and the effect of urbanization on EE is much greater than that of energy structure. Besides, the industrial structure has a significant negative impact on the EE of BTH urban agglomeration. The opening-up degree can significantly inhibit the improvement of EE in YRD urban agglomeration. The impact of resource endowment on the EE of three urban agglomerations is not significant. According to the empirical results, some policy commendations are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Household energy transition does not necessarily improve subjective welfare. • Thermal insulation of homes could improve subjective evaluation. • Advanced technology and lower cost of heating lead to higher satisfaction. • Enforcing energy transition as a mandate reduces households' satisfaction. • Higher-income households are more satisfied with household energy transition. Household energy transition is beneficial to the environment and public health. However, the subjective welfare of the participants is not guaranteed to be improved. This paper takes China's clean heating program as an example of household energy transition and investigates the factors that affect participants' satisfaction with the program. Based on a large-scale household survey in Beijing, we find that the households' evaluation of indoor temperature, air quality, cleanliness, heating convenience, and safety is positive overall, but there is substantial heterogeneity in opinions, program implementation, and household characteristics. Utilizing econometric models, we further find that (1) thermal insulation of the home can improve subjective evaluation of warmth; (2) more advanced heating technology and lower cost of equipment acquisition are associated with higher satisfaction; (3) providing information to households results in more positive evaluation of the program, while enforcing the program as a mandate reduces households' satisfaction; and (4) higher-income households are more likely to give the program a higher evaluation. Based on these findings, follow-up policies could promote thermal insulation, increase equipment subsidies for low-income groups, and relax strict mandates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Although, in the theory of industrial ecology, a recycling industry is essential in order to establish a closed loop material system, in practice, the contribution of that industry is still limited, and more studies are needed to enlarge its role. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively analyze factors that influence the performance of recycling projects in Japanese Eco-Towns. We develop two multi-regression models using questionnaire survey data from recycling facilities and cross-sectional data from 23 Eco-Towns to analyze the amount of waste treated by and the operating rate of recycling facilities. Dependent variables are introduced through a review of the literature on industrial symbiosis and the situation of Japanese Eco-Towns, focusing on three necessary features: recycling boundaries, government policy intervention, and local collaboration and partnership. The results of two simple regression models of recycling facilities in Eco-Towns offer several fruitful insights that aid in understanding the performance of recycling projects. First, recycling facilities’ geographical proximity to users of recycled products can contribute to high operating rates. Second, subsidies for constructing facilities do not improve recycling projects’ operating rates. Third, collaboration, rather than competition, among recycling facilities can improve their operating rates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of differences in on-shore wind electricity capacity additions in the EU Member States. An econometric model is developed in which capacity additions are explained according to several variables (wind resource potentials, support levels, electricity generation costs, type of support scheme, administrative barriers, social support for wind electricity, the general investment climate in the country, electricity demand, the share of other low-carbon technologies, country area and whether there have been major or minor changes in the support scheme). The results show that capacity additions are significantly and negatively related to administrative barriers and changes in the support scheme and positively and significantly related to the general investment climate. The other variables are not statistically significant, although they generally have the expected sign. The results suggest that, more than the level of support granted to renewable energy technologies and the wind resource potentials of each country, capacity additions are encouraged by the removal of administrative barriers and by greater regulatory stability, leading to lower investment risks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper has a twofold purpose. First, to characterize the sustainability of the European wood manufacturing industry. In this way, a ranking of the European countries analyzed in terms of sustainability is established. To undertake this task the sustainability of each country is defined by using several indicators of diverse nature (economic, environmental and social). These indicators are aggregated into a composite or synthetic index with the help of a binary goal programming model. In this way, a ranking according to the sustainability of the wood manufacturing industry in the European countries studied is obtained. The second step in the research consists of explaining the causes behind the level of sustainability of each country. This task is carried out by taking the composite indexes of sustainability as endogenous variables and a tentative set of economic, environmental and social variables as explanatory variables. The link between endogenous and exogenous variables is made with the help of econometric models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Energy consumption by passenger transport in Hong Kong increased rapidly in the past decades and in 2008 it accounted for 19.7% of total energy use. Improving energy efficiency has been widely regarded as an effective way for reducing energy use in the transport sector. However, the expected energy savings from energy efficiency improvement are likely to be discounted due to the existence of rebound effect. This paper employs econometric models to estimate the direct rebound effect for private passenger transport in Hong Kong. We find that the magnitudes of the direct rebound effect are respectively 45% and 35% for 1993–2009 and 2002–2009, which indicates that there was a declining trend in the direct rebound effect for passenger transport over time. It also indicates that the direct rebound effect needs to be taken into consideration in assessing the impact of energy efficiency measures on reducing energy use in Hong Kong. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper establishes the foundation of new systems’ Consolidity Theory using the Arithmetic Fuzzy Logic-Based Representation approach for investigating the internal behavior of systems operating in fully fuzzy environment. Consolidated systems are defined as being stable at the original state, but due to fuzzy variations in their inputs or parameters tend to react accordingly in a manner leading to maintaining their consolidity and strength, or vice versa. Under the new theory, systems are classified into consolidated, neutrally consolidated or unconsolidated type based on their output fuzziness reaction to combined input and parameters fuzziness action. The systems’ Consolidity Theory is demonstrated by several examples of mathematical functions of different dimensionalities, control theory and Predator-Prey populations’ dynamics. The suggested Consolidity Theory is illustrated to be an effective tool for revealing the inner property of systems and predicting their hidden behavior when operating in fully fuzzy environment. Monitoring and control of systems’ consolidity through forward and backward fuzziness tracking are suggested during systems’ operation, for avoiding their drifting to possible unwanted unconsolidated domains. It is shown that the analysis will lead at the end to determining the system’s consolidity index that could be regarded as a general basic internal property of the system. Such systems’ consolidity concept can also be defined far from fuzzy logic, and is applicable to the analysis and design of various types of linear, nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic, etc., systems in real life in the fields of basic sciences, evolutionary systems, engineering, biology, medicine, economics, finance, political and management sciences, social sciences, humanities, and education. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper investigates the economic efficiency–oil consumption relationship in 42 countries during the period 1986–2006. In a first stage by using DEA window analysis countries' economic efficiencies are obtained. In a second stage an econometric analysis based on robust GMM estimators reveals an inverted ‘U’-shape relationship between oil consumption and economic efficiency. In order to capture heterogeneities among countries' development stages the analysis has been separated into two groups (advanced economies and developing/emerging economies). The results show that advanced economies have much higher turning points compared to emerging and developing economies. It appears that oil consumption increases countries' economic efficiency. In addition the consumption patterns of oil products and its derivatives have changed through years and among countries. The different turning points from the econometric analysis indicate the dependence of oil consumption in advanced economies (higher turning points) is driven mainly by household purchasing activities and their standards of living (transport, housing and water, food, etc.). Finally, it appears that oil consumption is the main driver behind the progress of industrialization and urbanization regardless of the country's development stage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The three-state (healthy, frail, and dead) population model is commonly used in time-series investigations of mortality displacement and particulate matter air pollution (PM). In this paper, the author proposes a new population model, called the mixture population model, that by allowing PM to have differential effects on individuals in the population, extends the population models currently used in investigations of mortality displacement. Using this new model, the properties of distributed lag models (DLM) of PM are investigated. In particular, the author derives a relationship between the parameters of the proposed population model and the estimates obtained from a DLM fitted to mortality arising from the model. This relationship provides insight into the interrelationships between the size of the frail population, the number of lags of PM included in a DLM and the proportion of the effect of PM on the healthy population that is estimable. The relationship will guide and contextualize future investigations by providing researchers with the knowledge to assess the consequences of the number of lags of PM included in a DLM in terms of what they can plausibly infer about the effect of PM on mortality based on this choice of lag. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Extended Exergy Accounting (“EEA”) is a method to compute the space- and time integral of the primary exergy required to produce a good or a service: the extended exergy of a commodity measures its “embodied exergy”, including externalities (Labour, Capital and Environmental Costs). A crucial point of the method is the calculation of two econometric coefficients, commonly referred to as “α” and “β”,used to calculate the extended exergy equivalents of Labour and Capital respectively. In previous applications of the EEA method, these coefficients have been assigned approximate values estimated on the basis of global system considerations. In this paper, a novel procedure is described that leads to the calculation of “exact” values of both econometric coefficients, based on detailed exergy- and monetary balances of the Society to which the EEA is applied. It is shown that both α and β depend in a non-trivial way from the consumption patterns, the technological level and the life- and socio-economic standards of each Country. It is also shown that the values are substantially different for developed (OECD) and underdeveloped Countries, and representative samples of values are calculated and critically analysed. On the basis of these new model coefficients, the specific exergy equivalents of Labour (eeL) and of Capital (eeK) are calculated, and shown to differ from the values used in previous EEA calculations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction performance of applying the traditional statistical and econometric models such as linear regression and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to this kind of data. This paper tries to apply a hybrid forecasting method which is an integration of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The EMD-ARIMA forecasting methodology is then applied to the prediction of agricultural products demand after the 2008 Chinese winter storms. Forecasting results indicate that EMD can improve the prediction accuracy of classical ARIMA forecasting method for demand of commodities after natural disasters. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change research is currently a topic of great interest for economic researchers. In particular, environmental input–output analysis increasingly plays an important role in measuring the economic and environmental effects of sustainable development policies in Europe. Other approaches also exist, such as econometric modelling, in which impacts are quantified on statistical grounds and with certain desirable properties (efficient estimates, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, etc.) that are not found in the input–output approach. Consequently, this paper merges the two approaches to address the calculation of unbiased and consistent carbon dioxide emission multipliers for Denmark and their respective confidence intervals. The use of the supply and use system instead of the symmetric input–output table also presents the opportunity to avoid the common problems associated with the construction of technical coefficients (technology assumptions, negatives, etc.). Moreover, a new policy-relevant application of these multipliers is introduced: the quantification of the performance of the carbon dioxide emission reductions carried out by industries via external trading. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Sustainability is a complex multidimensional concept that entails economic, environmental, and social aspects. The sustainable value (SV) method developed by F. Figge and T. Hahn [Ecol. Econ. 48(2004) 173–187] is one of the most promising attempts to measure sustainability performance of firms. SV measures corporate contributions to sustainability by valuing resource use based on the opportunity cost, which must be estimated. This paper critically examines Figge and Hahn''s estimator for opportunity cost, and shows that the proposed estimator rests on a number of strong, unrealistic assumptions. Evidence from Monte Carlo simulations conducted by authors shows that the proposed estimator performs very poorly even under ideal conditions. Having identified shortcomings in the SV method, we review some econometric approaches with a proven statistical foundation, which might be usefully applied in the present context. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper aims to show that aggregate tax evasion may be largely explained by tax morale and that tax morale is dependent on the taxpayers’ intrinsic attitudes to honesty and social stigma. The theoretical hypothesis is that these attitudes are influenced by the taxpayers’ perceptions of the size of tax evasion as well as by their perceptions of the policy maker''s effectiveness in exercising control over the relevant macroeconomic variables and safeguarding the interests of citizens. Applying Gordon''s [Gordon, J.P.F., 1989. Individual morality and reputation costs as deterrents to tax evasion. European Economic Review 33(4), 797–805] framework, a dynamic model of aggregate tax evasion is proposed whereby multiple equilibria may emerge. Econometric analysis on Latin American countries supports the assumptions made in the model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper focuses on the impact of property rights insecurity on deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. Deforestation is considered as a risk management strategy: property rights insecurity reduces the present value of forests and fosters forest conversion into agricultural and pasture lands. Moreover, deforestation is the consequence of strategic interactions between landowners and squatters. Landowners clear the forest preventively in order to assert the productive use of land and to reduce the expropriation risk. Squatters invade land plots, clear the forest and may afterwards gain official recognition with formal property titles. A particular attention is paid to the measure of land property rights insecurity in the Brazilian context. It is assumed that property rights insecurity has a multidimensional character taken into account by the number of homicides related to land conflicts and expropriation procedures. Principal component analysis allows synthesising such information. An econometric model of deforestation is estimated on a panel dataset on the 1988¿2000 period and the nine states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon. The hypothesis that insecure land property rights contribute to higher rates of deforestation is not rejected when the simultaneity bias between insecure property rights and deforestation is addressed. This result questions the modality of the Brazilian land reform that considers forested areas as unproductive and thus open for expropriation procedures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we test an adapted EKC hypothesis to verify the relationship between ‘environmental efficiency’ (namely emissions per unit of value added) and labour productivity (value added per employee). We exploit NAMEA data on Italy for 29 sector branches and 6 categories of air emissions for the period 1991–2001. We employ data on capital stock and trade openness to test the robustness of our results. On the basis of the theoretical and empirical analyses focusing on innovation, firm performances and environmental externalities, we would expect a positive correlation between environmental efficiency and labour productivity — a negative correlation between the emissions intensity of value added and labour productivity — which departs from the conventional mainstream view. The hypothesis tested is a critical one within the longstanding debate on the potential trade-off or complementarity between environmental preservation and economic performance, which is strictly associated with the role of technological innovation. We find that for most air emission categories there is a positive relationship between labour productivity and environmental efficiency. Labour productivity dynamics, then, seem to be complementary to a decreasing emissions intensity in the production process. Taking a disaggregate sector perspective, we show that the macro-aggregate evidence is driven by sector dynamics in a non-homogenous way across pollutants. Services tend always to show a ‘complementary’ relationship, while industry seems to be associated with inverted U-shape dynamics for greenhouse gases and nitrogen oxides. This is in line with our expectations. In any case, EKC shapes appear to drive such productivity links towards complementarity. The extent to which this evidence derives from endogenous market forces, industrial and structural change, and policy effects is discussed by taking an evolutionary perspective to innovation and by... [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, we provide economy-wide estimates of the costs of drought in the cropping sector of the Iranian economy, using a linear programming model to estimate the direct costs on agriculture, and a macroeconometric model to trace the indirect impacts on the rest of the economy. The results indicate that a severe drought such as the one that occurred in the crop year 1999–2000 imposes a direct cost of 1605 million USD, equivalent to 30.3% of the total value added of the cropping sector in Iran. This, in turn, leads to a 12.7% reduction in the value added of other agricultural sub-sectors (livestock, fisheries and forestry). In the rest of the economy, the manufacturing and service sectors experience value added declines of 7.8 and 3.7%, respectively. In addition, there is a substantial decrease in investment in the agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors. Thus, such a drought reduces overall GDP by about 4.4%, and it would also result in decreased non-oil exports, increased food imports, and a rise in inflation. The results of some drought mitigation simulations are reported in brief. Such estimates strengthen the case for increased attention to drought strategies and management in agriculture in Iran and elsewhere. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Technological change is usually considered a necessary albeit not sufficient condition for a transition to sustainability. However, the empirical analysis of the determinants to environmental technological change has not received too much attention in the environmental/ecological economics literature and many open questions remain in this context. Based on a careful review of the literature, this paper argues that further analysis should address several issues at different levels: i.e., regarding the conceptual framework, the thematic scope of the studies, some methodological issues and other aspects related to the environmental policy variable. First, an integrated conceptual framework which takes into account the interplay between relevant variables influencing environmental technological change (i.e., factors internal and external to the firm and characteristics of the environmental technologies) and all the stages of this process, with a greater emphasis on the invention stage, should be developed. Other aspects should then be tackled, including a focus on several themes (i.e., a greater attention to cross-sectoral technologies, the barriers to different types of environmental technologies, the international dimension of environmental technological change and environmental technological change in small and medium size enterprises), methodological issues (combination of case studies and econometric modelling) and several issues related to the environmental policy variable. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

With the continuous deterioration of haze pollution and the increasing public awareness of environmental protection, more and more netizens are paying attention to the problem of haze pollution on online platforms, expressing environmental demands, supervising and accusing corporate pollution. Environmental concerns expressed by netizens on social media platforms exert strong public pressure on polluting enterprises with the popularity of smart phones. In this paper, a dynamic spatial econometric model is used to study the effects of network demand intensity on environmental pollution, taking into account the endogenous, regional differences and spatial spillover effects of explanatory variables. The total number of posts, likes, retweets, and comments on Weibo with the predefined search terms "haze" and the number of Baidu index comprised the public concern. Geographical detector model confirmed that the public's concern about haze pollution expressed on new media is closely related to haze condition. The results showed that new media network public opinion can alleviate haze pollution, but there are significant regional differences. From a regional point of view, the inhibition effect of new media network public opinion on haze pollution was the most significant in the central region, but it was not significant in the eastern and western regions. In addition, haze pollution showed obvious "cumulative effect" characteristics in the time dimension, and "spillover effect" characteristics in the space dimension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: One alleged weapon against unsustainable environmental impact is for the wealthy to consume less. This sufficiency strategy is to complement the efficiency strategy of lowering ratios of resource inputs to economic outputs; the former would reduce the affluence factor in I = PAT, the latter the technology factor. That the latter strategy suffers from a consumption rebound is widely recognized. This paper identifies a similar rebound when the affluence factor is autonomously lowered: The lower initial demand lowers prices, which in turn stimulates new demand by others. The strategy moreover addresses only the rich, raising questions of its theoretical maximum efficacy. Its proponents usually conflate frugality with the North–South dichotomy and intragenerational with intergenerational equity. Moreover, there are difficulties with the supporting arguments that frugality is good for one’s own sake as well as for the environment, and that the rich should ‘lead the way’ to living more lightly. Personal behaviour change is furthermore not a substitute for international political efforts. Finally, since all changes in right-side factors of the I = PAT equation change other right-side factors, such indirect attacks on impact should be abandoned in favor of supply and emissions quotas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents the development of an econometric-emission model to formulate future anthropogenic emission inventories for different societal and climate change scenarios. Our approach is to formulate the emission projections for a given scenario into growth factors that can be used to project forward the 1999 National Emission Inventory (NEI99). The process involves (1) mapping NEI99 source classification code (SCC)-based emissions into the sector or standard industrial classification (SIC)-based representation used by the econometric model, (2) developing a sectoral emission intensity (EMI) defined as the sector emissions per unit of sector economic output and the mechanism to consider EMI variations over time, (3) using the resulting EMI with econometric models and future emission activities to project future emissions, (4) and then mapping the emissions back to the original NEI99 format. As a case study, we apply the model to project emissions in the Chicago metropolitan area. The results show that the model is a fast, flexible, yet reasonable tool to produce a wide range of emission scenarios that are specific to regions, and would prove valuable for future air quality and other impact studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Resource throughput in the economy (e.g., of energy or materials) must be progressively reduced by at least one order of magnitude to achieve an optimal level. Although this would solve the resource distribution conflict between the generations, it would also aggravate the resource distribution conflict between persons of the same generation. It is shown here that a solution to these two conflicts and efficient resource allocation are only possible if resource certificates are distributed to consumers free of charge and traded between them. This paper builds on and integrates ideas developed in H. Daly''s [Daly, H.E., 1992. Allocation, Distribution, and Scale: towards an economics that is efficient just, and sustainable. Ecological Economics 6, 185–193.] article on allocation, distribution, and scale, adding insights from the ecological footprint concept, to propose a mechanism for facilitating intergenerational equity and drastically reducing resource throughput. Basically the mechanism involves rationing throughput equitably, internalizing environmental and social externalities, and substituting labour for resource use. This can be achieved almost without a drop in prosperity. Both unemployment and dependence on scarce resources decline. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The shortcomings of conventional discounting, especially in the context of long-run environmental problems, have been extensively discussed in the literature. Recently, hyperbolic discounting, i. e. discounting at declining instead of constant discount rates, has attracted a lot of interest among both scientists and politicians. Although there are compelling arguments for employing hyperbolic discounting, there are also pitfalls, which have to be pointed out. In this paper I show that the problem of time-inconsistency, an inherent characteristics of hyperbolic discounting, leads to a potential clash between economic efficiency and intergenerational equity. As an example, I refer to the weak progress in the controlling of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto protocol. As the problem of time-inconsistency cannot be solved on economic grounds alone, there is a need for an intergenerational moral commitment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]