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This paper is the second in a two-part series on the concavity-convexity of the distribution system security region (DSSR). In Part I, the concave-convex characteristics and mechanism of DSSR are revealed by observing many case grids. In Part II (this paper), the concave-convex principle of DSSR is revealed through mathematical deduction. Firstly, the relevant concepts of sub-regions are proposed, and a DSSR model based on the union of sub-regions is developed. Secondly, the concave-convex principle of DSSR is proposed. The proposed criteria show that the security region of a distribution system with a single load transfer path for each feeder is convex, while that with multiple load transfer paths for some feeders can be concave or convex. Thirdly, the proposed criteria are deduced mathematically. Fourthly, based on the criteria, a method is proposed to judge whether a DSSR is concave or convex. Fifthly, the proposed criteria and method are verified through several cases, and the DSSR concavity-convexity of real distribution systems in China is also analyzed. Finally, the applications of DSSR concavity-convexity are illustrated. This work lays a mathematical foundation for the research of the topological properties of DSSR and is also useful for the application of DSSR. • The DSSR mathematical model based on the union of sub-regions is developed. • Three criteria are proposed and proved, revealing the concave-convex principle of DSSR. • A judgment method for DSSR concavity-convexity is proposed based on these criteria. • The DSSR concavity-convexity of real distribution systems in China is analyzed. • The application values of DSSR concavity-convexity are demonstrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the premature failure of the integral droppers in high speed railway catenary in China was investigated. Series of microscopic characterization and analysis were conducted to identify the root causes of the unexpected failure. By numerically simulating the existing crimping behavior, distribution of the contact stress in the dropper was obtained. It was found that there was stress concentration at the dropper sliced end, which became the primary reason for the permanent distortion and damage on the droppers, and consequently resulted in the untimely final fracture with bending fretting fatigue acting. Through the failure analysis and numerical simulation, a scheme of the improvements in measuring the existing crimping was brought up. Meanwhile, a plan was also put forward to change the current crimping model and reduce the depth of indentation of clamp tube. Static tensile tests and bending fretting fatigue tests were carried out to evaluate the optional plans, which would help extend the service life of integral dropper in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of the sharing economy, outsourcing logistics operations to third party logistics has become an efficient way of reducing costs in freight transportation. It can be modeled as a variant of the open vehicle routing problem (OVRP), where the vehicles do not return to the depot after servicing customers. However, very few papers have studied fuel consumption in the context of third party logistics. In this work, the mathematical model of the green open vehicle routing problem with time windows (GOVRPTW) was described based on the comprehensive modal emission model (CMEM). A hybrid tabu search algorithm involving several neighborhood search strategies was designed to solve this problem. Computational experiments were performed on realistic instances based on the real road conditions of Beijing, China. The effect of empty kilometers is analyzed through comparing different cost components. Compared with closed routes, the open routes reduced the total cost by 20% with both the fuel emissions costs and the CO 2 emissions cost down by nearly 30%. For the experiments with congested nodes, the fuel and emissions cost rose by 12.3%, and the driver cost even increased by 31.3%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding spatiotemporal urbanization is one of the key questions related to sustainable urbanization in the drylands of northern China (DNC). However, urban expansion in the DNC has not been quantified and assessed effectively due to a lack of reliable data and methods. In this paper, we investigate urban expansion in the DNC at multiple scales, ranging from the whole region to four dryland subtypes, and six urban agglomerations in the DNC from 1992 to 2015. We also simulate urban expansion in the DNC from 2015 to 2050 by coupling the scenario framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Despite of the uncertainty in the research, our findings provide useful insight into the past and the future urban expansion in the DNC. The results indicate that the urban land in the DNC expanded rapidly from 4110 km 2 in 1992 to 20,969 km 2 in 2015. Furthermore, the urban land in the DNC will continue to expand from 20,969 km 2 to 22,987–36,622 km 2 by 2040, with an annual growth of 80.72–403.48 km 2 under all SSPs. Thus, it is suggested that effective measures are urgently needed to facilitate sustainable urban development in the DNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to achieve the purpose of sealing water between adjacent jacked pipes in construction of long-distance and large-section tunnel, an innovative method called Freeze-Sealing Pipe Roof (FSPR) was applied to the Gongbei tunnel, which is a key part of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge in China. Since the pre-constructed jacking pipes provides great convenience for flexible placement of freezing tubes inside, it is crucial to study the temperature field of different freezing states. This paper first established a new mathematical model considering radial offset of jacking pipe according to the practical engineering, and then the analytical solution to steady-state temperature field was also derived. Moreover, temperature distribution of four typical cross-sections were analyzed to evaluate the freezing effect on different paths. Results show that the analytical results are in good agreement with the numerical results, and the quasi-double-circle freezing model can be well applied to the practical problem of radial offset. Soil between steel pipes will be lowered to a sufficiently low temperature and form a fairly reliable water-sealing curtain. By designing the radial offset between freezing tubes in solid and hollow pipes, the freezing effect can be better ensured. The conclusions have important guiding significance for design and construction of FSPR method in future projects. • Temperature field of a special double-circle-piped freezing model is solved analytically. • The boundary separation property of the harmonic equation is used to solve the heat conduction problem. • The accuracy of complex analytical expressions is verified by numerical simulation. • Water sealing effect of FSPR method considering radial offset of jacking pipes is analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Snow cover is a common and relatively stable land cover condition in winter for cold north regions in China. Snow cover has significant effects on water and heat transfers in frozen soil; it needs to be considered in the study of frozen soil water–heat coupled movements. On the basis of previous research results and physical process analysis of water and heat movements in snow cover and soil, a snow cover–soil union water–heat coupled movements model is established in this paper. The numerical simulation was conducted by using a finite difference method. The results indicate that the simulated values have a similar trend to the measured values and the numerical simulation had big relative errors. However, the average absolute errors of the total and liquid moisture content in frozen soil were all less than 4%, and that of the frozen soil temperature was 1.37 °C. The errors of the numerical simulation were still within the acceptable range. Thus, the snow cover–soil union water–heat coupled movement model constructed in this paper is rational. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The suitability of the project delivery system (PDS) selected for a project greatly influences the efficiency to conduct a project. It is not an easy task to select an appropriate PDS as a large amount of ambiguous information exists. The paper aims to develop a PDS selection model to help owners to make a decision. The similar projects are identified through the similarity metrics between the target project to be predicted and those in the database. In addition, some of the indicator values are examined and modified through DEA-BND model, and then they are trained by ANN model to predict an appropriate PDS for the target project. A survey was conducted by postal questionnaire to empirically validate the reliability of the model in China. The indicator system for the selection of an appropriate PDS is established. Through the comparison of results predicted by different models, it is found that the PDS selection model developed in this paper can predict PDS precisely, and shows higher reliability than the ANN model. A PDS selection model is developed by inputting project-specific data, which proves to be more accurate and less dependent on experts’ judgment. Its practical application will benefit the owner’s decision making in the selection of the PDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the theoretical foundations and development of a multidimensional, water-focused, thematic indicator of rural poverty: The Water, Economy, Investment and Learning Assessment Indicator (WEILAI). The WEILAI approach was specifically designed for application in rural China, to support poverty alleviation project planning, monitoring and evaluation, as well as targeting and prioritization. WEILAI builds primarily on the basic needs framework of poverty alleviation, and on the methodological structure of the Water Poverty Index, to provide a proxy measure of an area's poverty by assessing eight key poverty sectors, with a strong focus on the components of water-poverty. The WEILAI approach was piloted and implemented in 534 households in China's mountainous southwest. This paper describes the indicator construction, weighting schemes, methodology, field sites, and statistical validation of the results. In addition, we discuss the results, feedback from in-country project staff, and the likely utility of the tool for project planning, monitoring and evaluation support. The paper concludes with a discussion of WEILAI's overall utility and ongoing development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the fluctuations of the Chinese Stock Index, and we study the statistical properties of HSI, DJI, IXIC and SP500 by comparison. According to the theory of artificial neural networks, a stochastic time effective function is introduced in the forecasting model of the indices in the present paper, which gives an improved neural network – the stochastic time effective neural network model. In this model, a promising data mining technique in machine learning has been proposed to uncover the predictive relationships of numerous financial and economic variables. We suppose that the investors decide their investment positions by analyzing the historical data on the stock market, and the historical data are given weights depending on their time, in detail, the nearer the time of the historical data is to the present, the stronger impact the data have on the predictive model, and we also introduce the Brownian motion in order to make the model have the effect of random movement while maintaining the original trend. In the last part of the paper, we test the forecasting performance of the model by using different volatility parameters and we show some results of the analysis for the fluctuations of the global stock indices using the model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: An extended Gebhart–Block model for large space buildings is proposed in this paper, which is used to predict the vertical temperature distribution of hybrid ventilation. Natural ventilation coupled with air-conditioning is described with a mathematical model. The indoor thermal environment formed by the air-conditioning and the natural ventilation can also be conducted for the potential analysis and optimal use of the natural ventilation. Experiments were carried out in an atrium building in Shanghai Research Institute of Building Sciences. This paper describes aforementioned model, and it is found that the calculation results implying this model agree well with the measurement data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a nonlinear piecewise smooth dynamical system of the trajectory of deviated wells according to engineering background. An optimal control model is established and the necessary conditions for optimality are proved via maximum principle. The optimal control problem is solved by a revised Hooke–Jeeves algorithm. The uniform design technique has been incorporated into the revised Hooke–Jeeves algorithm to handle the multimodal function. Computer simulation is used for this paper, and the numerical example illustrates the validity and efficiency of the algorithm. The procedure demonstrates its advantages in practical applications in Liaohe Oil Field. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: With the start up of West–East Natural Gas Transmission Project, the construction of natural gas-pipeline will enter on a new era in China. The development tendency will be towards large-diameter, high-pressure and long-distance for natural gas-pipelines. Correspondingly, the life cycle cost of natural gas-pipeline networks is increasing gradually. The mainline system is a vital part of natural gas network systems. The investment required for the mainline system is enormous, usually accounting for 80% of the total investment for this system. In general, the investment required for a gas-pipeline depends on its operating parameters. Therefore, based on the characteristics of gas networks, optimization for investment becomes indispensable to gas networks design. A comprehensive and optimal mathematic model of a gas networks system is established in this paper which considers all the factors influencing the total investment of a gas networks system (e.g. pipe diameter, thickness, pressure, length, compression ratio, etc). From the standpoint of the characteristics of a model comprising both continuous and discrete variables, a new methodology, rank-optimization, is presented. On the basis of this model, a simple and visual high-pressure networks optimization program has been compiled. Furthermore, the developed optimization program has been applied to a practical project and the effects of operating parameters on the total investment have been analyzed. The simulation model in this paper is shown to be an effective method to solve optimization on mainline system in high-pressure gas networks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Waste sorting is an imperative and significant issue in China, of which sorted-waste collection and transportation are indispensable parts. Despite its vital yet practical significance, few studies research mathematical models or algorithms of waste collection and transportation from the perspective of waste sorting. To address this issue, we extend a novel transportation model for the waste management system, namely, capacitated location routing problem with queuing time (CLRPQT) and design a cross-entropy and simulated-annealing based hyper-heuristic algorithm (CE-SAHH) for it. The main idea of this paper is three-fold: (1) As a particular property of this problem, source nodes cannot but need to be served by more than one vehicle that causes queuing time between a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, which is novel in terms of the proposed model; (2) For the methodological contribution, a character encoding scheme, new decoding procedure, and local search strategy are designed embedded in the proposed method; (3) An integration of simulated annealing strategy and the cross-entropy-based hyper-heuristic algorithm is developed to overcome the combinatorial optimization problem with a more complex solution of this study. Finally, the results and analysis of three numeric experiments on benchmark datasets, new instances of CLRPQT, and simulation data in Shanghai, China, verify the effectiveness and universality of the proposed model and method. • A novel model with interactional routes for sorted-waste transportation is proposed. • A cross-entropy-based hyper-heuristic algorithm is proposed and performs well. • The novel model and method based on sorted waste enrich the waste management system. • Real-life data is used to verify the method and some managerial insights are drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the recent decades, China’s building energy consumption has been growing rapidly. Also the fuel mix has been changing quickly with more natural gas & electricity and less coal being used. Meanwhile, the technologies used in building sector are improving in efficiency. In this paper, the impact of technical progress and the use of renewable energy in building sector are analyzed. The energy saving and emission reduction potential of building sector are also measured. China TIMES model is used to model the future energy consumption and carbon emissions in building sector. The modelling results indicate that building energy consumption is expected to grow to around 41.6EJ in the reference scenario in 2050. The energy saving potential in 2050 can be up to 4EJ due to the improvement of both building insulation (envelop) and energy use technologies. Renewable energy used in buildings can be a great contributor to the carbon mitigation in buildings. China’s building sector can reach a relatively low-carbon future with more low- and non-carbon fuels consumed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: During the fast developing process of the Chinese economy, China consumes lots of energy and environmental pollution caused by energy consumption currently urgently needs solving. So, paying more attention to energy saving and emission reduction is very important. Therefore, to reasonably allocate resources and reduce emissions in China’s different regions has practical significance. So this paper firstly considers the model construction method for resource allocation considering undesirable outputs between different decision making units based on the DEA framework under the CRS and VRS assumption. We have proposed some resource allocation models as a multiple objective linear problem which considers the input reduction, desirable output reduction and undesirable output reduction. Then, to demonstrate the practical application of the resource allocation model, numerical examples are used to illustrate the approach. In addition, we explore the resource allocation problem of China’s regions in 2006–2010. The empirical results show that the resource allocation models dealing with undesirable outputs have effective configuration results, that is, the reduction proportion for desirable output is smaller than the reduction proportion for undesirable output. From the resource allocation results in China’s regions, we find that the eastern area has more emission reduction than the central and western areas corresponding to the same energy consumption reduction, and the energy and environmental policy should focus more on the central and western areas. All of these conclusions will give some policy recommendations on saving energy and reducing pollution emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To find the key impact factors of CO2 emissions to realize the carbon intensity target, this paper examined the impact factors of population, economic level, technology level, urbanization level, industrialization level, service level, energy consumption structure and foreign trade degree on the energy-related CO2 emissions in Guangdong Province, China from 1980 to 2010 using an extended STIRPAT model. We employed ridge regression to fit the extended STIRPAT model. Empirical results indicate that factors such as population, urbanization level, GDP per capita, industrialization level and service level, can cause an increase in CO2 emissions. However, technology level, energy consumption structure and foreign trade degree can lead to a decrease in CO2 emissions. The estimated elastic coefficients suggest that population is the most important impact factor of CO2 emissions. Industrialization level, urbanization level, energy consumption structure, service level and GDP per capita are also significant impact factors, but the other factors such as technology level and foreign trade degree are less important impact factors. Some policy recommendations are also given on how to mitigate the growth of CO2 emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Some forecasting models have been developed, each has its own application condition. The grey model is used for small sample forecasting, but until now there is no reasonable explanation for the reason why it is not used for large sample. Therefore, in this paper, matrix perturbation theory is employed to explain the reason. The results of practical numerical examples from previous works demonstrate that the small sample usually has more accuracy than the large sample when establishing grey model in theory. Furthermore, we used the grey model with small samples to analyse the trend of syphilis incidence in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Grey theory is one approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for short-term problems. Generally, the GM (1,1) and Discrete GM (1,1) models are two typical grey forecasting models in grey theory. However, there are two shortcomings in the above grey models respectively, i.e., the homogeneous-exponent simulative deviation in GM (1,1) model, and the unequal conversion between the original and white equations in DGM (1,1) model. In this paper, we firstly propose a novel Generalized GM (1,1) model termed GGM (1,1) model, based on GM (1,1) and DGM (1,1) models, to overcome the above shortcomings. Then, we detailedly study four important properties in this new grey model. Four estimative approaches of stepwise ratio in GGM (1,1) model context is also covered. In the end, we simulate and forecast the fuel production in China during the period 2003–2010 using three GM (1,1) models. The empirical results show that GGM (1,1) model has higher simulative and predictive accuracy than GM (1,1) and DGM (1,1) models. This work contributes significantly to improve grey forecasting theory and proposes a optimized GM (1,1) model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A new model used to design the shape and dimension of salt cavern gas storage is proposed in the paper. In the new model, the cavern is divided into two parts, namely the lower and upper structures, to design. The concepts of slope instability and pressure arch are introduced into the shape design of the lower and upper structures respectively. Calculating models are established according to the concepts. Field salt cavern gas storage in China is simulated as examples, and its shape and dimension are proposed. The effects of gas pressure, friction angle and cohesion of rock salt on the cavern stability are discussed. Moreover, the volume convergence, displacement, plastic volume rate, safety factor, and effective strain are compared with that of three other existing shapes salt caverns to validate the performance of newly proposed cavern. The results show that the max. gas pressure determines the shape and dimension of cavern lower structure, while the min. gas pressure decides that of cavern upper structure. With the increase of friction angle and cohesion of rock salt, the stability of salt cavern is increased. The newly proposed salt cavern gas storage has more notable advantages than the existing shapes of salt cavern in volume convergence, displacement, plastic volume rate, safety factor, and effective strain under the same conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we present a process-based model to estimate the well-to-tank (WTT) costs of vehicle fuels (gasoline and diesel). The model breaks down the WTT process into four stages, i.e., crude oil sourcing (import and extraction), crude oil transportation, crude oil refining, and vehicle fuel transportation and distribution, which can provide high-resolution data for the WTT cost components. Using this model, we further develop an empirical study of China. The results obtained from the study indicate that the price of imported crude oil is the dominant factor affecting the WTT costs of vehicle fuels in China and that the cost of crude oil refining also has a relatively large influence. By comparing the costs with the prices of vehicle fuels under the volatile price of imported crude oil, we illustrate the unstable margin caused by China’s current pricing policy, which causes a distorted price signal and fiscal risks. The key findings derived from the empirical study reveal that the WTT cost is an essential guide for altering the vehicle fuel price with the aim of not only smoothing the impacts caused by the volatile price of crude oil price but also reflecting the correct oil price signal and reducing the fiscal risks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A dynamic evaporator model of air source heat pump (ASHP), considering the ratio of the latent heat to sensible heat of wet air, is presented to analyze the performance of ASHP under frosting. The performance parameters, such as the heating capacity, COP and the outlet temperature of compressor, are simulated with CYCLEPAD. Then a semi-empirical correlation that predicts frost accumulation on the air-side of fin-tube heat exchanger is developed with dimensionless analysis and also modified by a test conducted under cold-moist conditions in winter. In addition, eight influence factors are considered involving the ambient conditions and structures of heat exchanger, whose effects are analyzed as well. Among them, the equivalent diameter of air flow cross-section in fin-tube deq is especially proposed. Lastly, the relationships between the ratio, the performance parameters and the frost accumulation are discussed in this paper, followed by an evaluation of an optimal defrosting time interval to improve the ASHP’s energy efficiency and operational reliability at cold-moist conditions in central-south China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper uses nonparametric efficiency analysis technique to estimate the energy efficiency, potential emission reductions and marginal abatement costs of energy-related CO2 emissions in China. We employ a non-radial slacks-based data envelopment analysis (DEA) model for estimating the potential reductions and efficiency of CO2 emissions for China. The dual model of the slacks-based DEA model is then used to estimate the marginal abatement costs of CO2 emissions. An empirical study based on China’s panel data (2001–2010) is carried out and some policy implications are also discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Flood disasters are one of the most common and destructive natural hazards all over the world. In this paper, improved interior-outer-set model (IIOSM) based on information diffusion theory is introduced in detail to assess flood risk in an effort to obtain accurate analytical results that represent the actual situation. Then fuzzy α-cut technique is applied to calculate the fuzzy expected values under the possibility–probability distribution (PPD) calculated by IIOSM. Taking the value of α throughout the interval (0,1], we correspondingly get access to the conservative risk value (R C ) and venture risk value (R V ). Selection of α, R C and R V is dependent on present technical conditions and risk preference of different people. To illustrate the procedure of IIOSM and fuzzy α-cut technique, we employ them respectively to analyze the flood risk in Sanshui District, located in the center of Guangdong province in China. The results, such as risk value estimations, as well as fuzzy expected values, i.e. R C and R V under the given α-cut level, can reflect the flood risk quite accurately. The outcomes of this research based on IIOSM and fuzzy α-cut technique offer new insights to carry out an efficient way for various flood protection strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Fracture data available for one of the rock masses (limestone) in the dam site of Yujian River Reservoir were used to build and validate a stochastic 3-D fracture network model, and to perform a REV and equivalent continuum study in 3-D. A number of relations are developed in the paper between the rock mass mechanical parameters and fracture tensor components in 3-D. Based on the mechanical parameter values obtained in every 45° direction in 3-D, the principal parameter values, principal directions and tensors are developed for rock mass mechanical parameters to represent the REV block size properties. An incrementally linear elastic, orthotropic constitutive model is suggested to represent the equivalent continuum pre-failure mechanical behavior of the jointed rock mass by incorporating the effect of joint geometry network by the fracture tensor components. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper aims to discuss innovative plan models for Chinese cities that are currently under rapid development. The study considers Complexity Theories of Cities as the theoretical basis and applies a holistic approach in city planning by recognizing the complex nature of city. It strives to integrate the diverse local structure in social and spatial aspects with the ambition and demand of city''s expansion. Digital sequence simulation is used as an innovative tool to represent local activities, promote interventions and predict possible self-organization process in the future. The study arrives at an open scenario, the feasible prospect. A conclusion is drawn to reflect the process and achievement and propose future works for this research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) is one of the major scientific infrastructures, mainly using Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, to monitor crustal deformation in the Chinese mainland. In this paper, decade-long coordinate time series of 26 continuous GPS sites of CMONOC are analyzed for their noise content using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We study the noise properties of continuous GPS time series of CMONOC for the unfiltered, filtered solutions and also the common mode signals in terms of power law plus white noise model. In the spatial filtering, we remove for every time series a common mode error that was estimated from a modified stacking of position residuals from other sites within ∼1000km of the selected site. We find that the common mode signal in our network has a combination of spatially correlated flicker noise and a common white noise with large spatial extent. We demonstrate that for the unfiltered solutions of CMONOC continuous GPS sites the main colored noise is a flicker process, with a mean spectral index of ∼1. For the filtered solutions, the main colored noise is a general power law process, indicating that a major number of the filtered regional solutions have a combination of noise sources or local effects. The velocity uncertainties from CMONOC continuous GPS coordinate time series may be underestimated by factors of 8–16 if a pure white noise model is assumed. In addition, using a white plus flicker noise model, the median values of velocity errors for the unfiltered solutions are 0.16 (north), 0.17 (east) and 0.58 (vertical)mm/yr, and the median values for the filtered solutions are 0.09 (north), 0.10 (east) and 0.40 (vertical)mm/yr. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Ecological indicator system (EIS) is widely used in ecosystem monitoring, assessment and management, building a bridge between scientists, environmental managers, and the general public. This paper explores a conceptual model for ecological indicator selection, and a quantitative selection model is formulated based on the conceptual model. The quantitative selection model is a typical zero-one type integer programming problem, and a binary-code genetic algorithm is proposed for solving it. Then the quantitative selection model and its solving method are applied to the Xiamen''s coastal ecosystem health framework which comprises 4 levels of ecosystem structure. In this case, the purpose is to reduce the indicator set to minimize overall management costs, and 19 indicators are discarded from the 54 candidate concrete indicators by our method. The selection modeling and its solving method are demonstrated to be a scientific and effective way for ecological indicator application. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Guangzhou New TV Tower (GNTVT) in Guangzhou, China, is a supertall tube-in-tube structure with a total height of 600 m. A complicated structural health monitoring (SHM) system consisting of over 800 sensors has been implemented to the GNTVT for both in-construction and in-service real-time monitoring. By making use of this SHM system, the ambient vibration measurement is carried out in a continuous and long-term manner. This paper presents the analytical and experimental modal analysis of the tower and the field ambient vibration measurement at different construction stages and under different excitation conditions, particularly addressing the following issues: (1) a reduced-order FE model for the GNTVT; (2) field vibration measurement and modal parameter identification of the tower under construction and two environmental excitations (typhoon and earthquake); and (3) comparison of results under different excitation events in the time–frequency domain and correlation between natural frequencies and air temperature using linear regression analysis. The experimental dynamic characteristics of the tower can be used to update the finite element of the tower, so that the updated finite element model of the tower can be obtained, which will serve as the baseline model for future health monitoring and damage detection. They can also be used to verify the effectiveness of vibration control devices installed on the tower. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The use of groundwater for cooling and heating purposes is of interest from both the economical and the ecological perspective. The groundwater heat pump (GWHP) system utilizes groundwater as alternative renewable and clean energy source for space heating and/or cooling, withdraws water from a production well, passes it through a heat exchanger and discharges the water into an injection well. By utilizing the relatively stable temperature of groundwater, GWHP system can achieve a higher coefficient of performance. Due to the utilization of groundwater stored in the aquifer, the assessment of the hydraulic capacity of the aquifer based on numerical groundwater models is always needed for the optimum design and the efficient performance of GWHP. In this paper, numerical methods of underground heat-water transfer, energy balance method and thermal storage method were presented to calculate the capacity of unit area of shallow groundwater aquifer. The model results indicate that the numerical method, which is based on performance efficiency of GWHP, represents the behaviour of groundwater pumping/recharging processes, and serves better than energy balance method and thermal storage method, in addition it has been proven itself that this method has the advantages of energy saving and environmental protection. The calculated capacity is positively related to aquifer thickness. It is found that it is easy for ground water recharge in alluvial and pluvial fan located at the piedmont, while the calculated capacity is relatively smaller compared with that of south-east plain where it is not easy for groundwater recharge. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so the electricity demand forecasting in China remains an important problem. This paper aims at developing an improved hybrid model for electricity demand in China, which takes the advantages of moving average procedure, combined method, hybrid model and adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm, known as MA-C-WH. It is designed for making trend and seasonal adjustments which simultaneously presents the electricity demand forecasts. Four actual electricity demand time series in China power grids are selected to illustrate the proposed MA-C-WH model, and one existing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) is selected to compare with the proposed model using the same data series. The results of popular forecasting precision indexes show that our proposed model is an effective forecasting technique for seasonal time series with nonlinear trend. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: An emission pre-processing tool is generally needed to transform a bulk annual emission inventory into gridded, temporal (monthly, weekly, and hourly), and speciated emissions in order to use complex air quality models such as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to assess control strategies, forecast air quality, and investigate pollution formation and transport processes. To support the regional air quality modeling in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), we developed an emission pre-processing system, Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions-PRD (SMOKE-PRD), based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)/SMOKE model. This paper introduces the methods and procedures for adapting the SMOKE model to the PRD regional bulk emissions. These include the compilation of the PRD local source-class clarification codes, the incorporation of the PRD local emission inventory, and the updating of spatial, temporal, and chemical speciation information. The SMOKE-PRD system was evaluated, and a case study on ozone simulation was conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the SMOKE-PRD system. Results show that the model can properly simulate temporal variations, spatial patterns, and peak values of O3 concentrations in the PRD region, suggesting the SMOKE-PRD system was successfully localized and can be used to provide model-ready emissions for regional air quality modeling in the PRD region. This work can be extended for adapting the SMOKE model to process emissions for modeling use in other regions of China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Green space positively affects the quality of the environment and urban life. However it is still hard to decide where and how much green space should be planned. In China, mandatory green space required by national and local laws and regulations entails the specifying of locations and quantities of the green space. This paper proposes a new method for automatically generating the plan of mandatory green and presents a case study in the Yuhua District in Nanjing, China. Based on the regulatory plans of this area, GIS data layers are first assembled. A model is built to generate the final plan of mandatory green of the study area. In comparison with the modeled mandatory green plan, the regulatory green plan is found to be arbitrary and to fails to comply with legal requirements. The results present the model for generating the plan of mandatory green is effective and accurate. This model bridges the gap between the legal parameters of mandatory green and practical green space planning and enables those legal parameters to become the guide and assessing criteria for planning. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Over the past few years property management has become a prominent topic in Mainland China. The proprietors expect the property company to provide a broad range of services and deal with kinds of complaints. One of main duties of the property management is to provide a security patrol on the housing estate so that the security personnel can provide an immediate response to people in need and deal with complaints. The property managers are facing two big challenges: an increase in complaints and manpower shortage. The purpose of this study is to find a systematic method to improve the deployment of security guards in a large property company located in south China. We developed a mathematical model that fits the practical situation. A case study in which the proposed methodology is applied is given in this paper to show how the optimal allocation is determined. In comparison with the current empirical method of allocation the utilization of the optimal allocation obtains a 27.5% improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Air pollutant emission inventory is an important input parameter for chemical transport models (CTMs). Since great uncertainties exist in the emission inventory, further improvements and refinements are required. In this paper, genetic algorithm (GA), a global search and optimization method, was applied to optimize the emission inventory for the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. An emission optimizing system based on GA was developed and embedded to the CMAQ through the design of several core modules, which implemented the basic functions such as emission adjusting, GA population initializing, CMAQ results evaluating and GA operating. Hypothetical and real-data experiments were respectively performed to examine the validity of GA for emission calibrating. GA showed good performance in both experiments and was always able to find the global minimum. The emission optimizing system was then used to calibrate seasonal PM10 emission inventories of Beijing. Results revealed that PM10 emission in Beijing was underestimated in 2002, an average of 62.74% higher adjustment factor should be imposed on the original emission in target months of different seasons. With the calibrated emission inventories, CMAQ model errors were decreased by 6.46% on average in different seasons. It was concluded that GA was a promising search technique in calibrating emission inputs for CTMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Following model evaluation in part I, this part II paper focuses on the process analysis and chemical regime analysis for the formation of ozone (O3) and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 μm (PM10) in China. The process analysis results show that horizontal transport is the main contributor to the accumulation of O3 in Jan., Apr., and Oct., and gas-phase chemistry and vertical transport contribute to the production and accumulation of O3 in Jul. Removal pathways of O3 include vertical and horizontal transport, gas-phase chemistry, and cloud processes, depending on locations and seasons. PM10 is mainly produced by primary emissions and aerosol processes and removed by horizontal transport. Cloud processes could either decrease or increase PM10 concentrations, depending on locations and seasons. Among all indicators examined, the ratio of provides the most robust indicator for O3 chemistry, indicating a VOC-limited O3 chemistry over most of the eastern China in Jan., NOx-limited in Jul., and either VOC- or NOx-limited in Apr. and Oct. O3 chemistry is NOx-limited in most central and western China and VOC-limited in major cities throughout the year. The adjusted gas ratio, AdjGR, indicates that PM formation in the eastern China is most sensitive to the emissions of SO2 and may be more sensitive to emission reductions in NOx than in NH3. These results are fairly consistent with the responses of O3 and PM2.5 to the reductions of their precursor emissions predicted from sensitivity simulations. A 50% reduction of NOx or AVOC emissions leads to a reduction of O3 over the eastern China. Unlike the reduction of emissions of SO2, NOx, and NH3 that leads to a decrease in PM10, a 50% reduction of AVOC emissions increases PM10 levels. Such results indicate the complexity of O3 and PM chemistry and a need for an integrated, region-specific emission control strategy with seasonal variations to effectively control both O3 and PM2.5 pollution in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper reports the investigation results on application of the solar assisted air source heat pump systems for hot water production in Hong Kong. A mathematical model of the system is developed to predict its operating performance under specified weather conditions. The optimum flow rate from the load water tank to the condenser is proposed considering both the appropriate outlet water temperature and system performance. The effect of various parameters, including circulation flow rate, solar collector area, tilt angle of solar collector array and initial water temperature in the preheating solar tank is investigated, and the results show that the system performance is governed strongly by the change of circulation flow rate, solar collector area and initial water temperature in the preheating solar tank. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes a study of local biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) emissions from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). An improved land cover and emission factor database was developed to estimate Hong Kong emissions using MEGAN, a BVOC emission model developed by . Field surveys of plant species composition and laboratory measurements of emission factors were combined with other data to improve existing land cover and emission factor data. The BVOC emissions from Hong Kong were calculated for 12 consecutive years from 1995 to 2006. For the year 2006, the total annual BVOC emissions were determined to be 12,400 metric tons or 9.82 × 109 g C (BVOC carbon). Isoprene emission accounts for 72%, monoterpene emissions account for 8%, and other VOCs emissions account for the remaining 20%. As expected, seasonal variation results in a higher emission in the summer and a lower emission in the winter, with emission predominantly in day time. A high emission of isoprene occurs for regions, such as Lowest Forest-NT North, dominated by broadleaf trees. The spatial variation of total BVOC is similar to the isoprene spatial variation due to its high contribution. The year to year variability in emissions due to weather was small over the twelve-year period (−1.4%, 2006 to 1995 trendline), but an increasing trend in the annual variation due to an increase in forest land cover can be observed (+7%, 2006 to 1995 trendline). The results of this study demonstrate the importance of accurate land cover inputs for biogenic emission models and indicate that land cover change should be considered for these models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper introduced a stochastic programming model to address the air freight hub location and flight routes planning under seasonal demand variations. Most existing approaches to airline network design problems are restricted to a deterministic environment. However, the demand in the air freight market usually varies seasonally. The model is separated into two decision stages. The first stage, which is the decision not affected by randomness, determines the number and the location of hubs. The second stage, which is the decision affected by randomness, determines the flight routes to transport flows from origins to destinations based upon the hub location and realized uncertain scenario. Finally, the real data based on the air freight market in Taiwan and China is used to test the proposed model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a Modeling Approach to Resource economics decision-maKing in EcoaquaculTure (MARKET model). The MARKET model was developed as a scenario-testing tool to provide insights on the ecological and economic interactions, which is a critical issue for sustainable aquaculture management. As a case study, the model was applied to simulate shellfish production in an embayment located in the East China Sea. A set of scenarios was used to compare the model outputs with expected trends and to test its capability to simulate relevant management scenarios. The comparison of simulated scenarios indicates that the MARKET model outputs followed the expected trends regarding both standard economic theory for consumption and production, and ecological economic theory. In all the scenarios we tested the area available for aquaculture was found to impose a limitation on production before it became less profitable to expand production. As such, in this case study, the production in the long run does not meet increasing demand. Reduction of the maximum cultivation area was simulated in one of the scenarios as an example of a conservation measure. As expected there was a reduction of the net profit of the farmers compared with the standard simulation. On the other hand, this scenario combined with an increase in price growth rate simulates a compensatory measure that led to a net profit in the same range as observed in the standard simulation. Overall the MARKET model provides insights and raises questions useful for the implementation of an ecosystem approach to aquaculture. Further developments include the simulation of waste generated by cultivated species in order to better support sustainable management objectives. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper describes the development of a land use model coupling ecosystem processes. For a given land use pattern in a region, a built-in regional ecosystem model (TESim) simulates leaf physiology of plants, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and hydrological processes including runoff generation and run-on re-absorption, as well as runoff-induced soil erosion and carbon and nitrogen loss from ecosystems. The simulation results for a certain period from 1976 to 1999 were then used to support land use decisions and to assess the impacts of land use changes on environment. In the coupling model, the land use type for a land unit was determined by optimization of a weighted suitability derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. The model was applied to the temperate crop-pasture band in northern China (CCPB) to analyze the interactions between land use and major ecosystem processes and functions and to indicate the added value of the feedbacks by comparing simulations with and without the coupling and feedbacks between land use module and ecosystem processes. The results indicated that the current land use in CCPB is neither economical nor ecologically judicious. The scenario with feedbacks increased NPP by 46.78gCm−2 a−1, or 32.23% of the scenario without feedbacks, also decreased soil erosion by 0.65kgm−2 a−1, or 23.13%. Without altering the regional land use structure (proportions of each land use type). The system developed in this study potentially benefits both land managers and researchers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, in contrast to the usual rough estimation, we present a model to simulate and evaluate the direct, indirect economic and environmental impacts of the implementation of building energy efficiency standards on Chinese economic system and environment by 12 indicators in two scenarios. Four indicators are used to evaluate the direct economic impact degree, five indicators are used to evaluate the direct environmental impact degree, three indicators are used to evaluate the indirect economic impact degree of 34 sectors and the whole Chinese economic system. This research makes it possible to link developments in the implementation of building energy efficiency standards with environmental and economic structure change. The most important finding is that the implementation of building energy efficiency standards can reduce a large amount of pollutants emissions and increase the GDP at the same time. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a model to quantify the impact of electric power outages on GDP by using Cobb–Douglas production function to develop an economic relationship between the reliability of the electric power supply system and the cost of electric energy unserved. Our findings show that average costs for providing a stable power supply are much lower than disruption costs, which is supported by recurring to the data available of Shanghai. Estimated by using Shanghai’s macroeconomic data of 1990–2006, this relationship indicates that the impact of electricity service disruption on Shanghai’s GDP is about 48.18×108 CNY in 2006, matching an alternative “back-of-envelope” estimate of 50.91×108 CNY. The estimated costs per kWh unserved are 1.81–10.26 CNY in 1990–2006, mirroring the increasing importance of electricity in the period’s economic development. These results demonstrate the usefulness of our approach for quantifying the reliability benefits of investments in electricity infrastructure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper investigates the existence and direction of Granger causality between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in China, applying a multivariate model of economic growth, energy use, carbon emissions, capital and urban population. Empirical results for China over the period 1960–2007 suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. Evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth. Therefore, the government of China can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: An ideal multi-objective financial decision support (MFDS) model for contractors should have ability of handling both the quantitative and qualitative inputs. This paper aims to develop a new MFDS model, which attempts to provide a more accurate way to support financial decision-makers in Chinese state-owned construction firms. Owing to the slow progress of passing the construction regulations, coupled with the inherited ownership problems in the Chinese booming construction industry, it is logical for Chinese project managers to make financial decisions with the consideration of the four objective functions (profit margin, risk factors, government relationship and market share), which are realistic representations of the present situation of Chinese construction industry. The proposed MFDS model is a practical method to support financial decision-making. For the model''s computational performance, Module 3 (stochastic universal sampling selection, adaptive crossover and adaptive mutation of Genetic Algorithm) is more superior. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) requires input and output data to be precisely known. This is not always the case in real applications. This paper proposes two new fuzzy DEA models constructed from the perspective of fuzzy arithmetic to deal with fuzziness in input and output data in DEA. The new fuzzy DEA models are formulated as linear programming models and can be solved to determine fuzzy efficiencies of a group of decision-making units (DMUs). An analytical fuzzy ranking approach is developed to compare and rank the fuzzy efficiencies of the DMUs. The proposed fuzzy DEA models and ranking approach are applied to evaluate the performances of eight manufacturing enterprises in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, a frozen soil parameterization scheme is developed based on the Common Land Model. We modify a frozen soil parameterization scheme using soil matric potential to define maximum liquid water content when soil temperature is below the freezing point; the simulation performance is validated using the data from Maqu station on the Tibetan Plateau from 2005 to 2006. The simulated results indicate that the modified frozen soil parameterization scheme allows the liquid water to exist when the soil temperature is below the freezing point, and the simulated soil liquid water content is significantly improved. The simulated soil temperature is also improved because of the successful simulation of the soil liquid water content. The distribution of energy from the modified model is closer to the observed data. Also, the simulated latent heat flux from the modified model increases and the simulated soil heat flux descends compared with the original model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Soil nails have been widely used to stabilize slopes and earth retaining structures in many countries and regions, especially, in Hong Kong. The analysis of the interaction between a soil nail and the surrounding soil is of great interests to both design engineers and researchers. In this paper, authors present a simple mathematical model for the interaction analysis of a soil nail and the surrounding soil considering a few key factors which are soil dilation, bending of the soil nail, vertical pressure, and non-linear subgrade reaction stiffness. The lateral subgrade reaction between the soil and the soil nail is assumed to obey a hyperbolic relation. Reported test data in the literature are used to verify the present model. The contributions of the soil-nail bending on the pull-out resistance are evaluated in two case studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]