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Abstract: Papermaking is known as an energy-intensive, but not always efficient industry. This is at least partly due to the fact that the majority of papermaking technologies and procedures were established at a time when energy was both cheap and plentiful. A considerable fraction of the energy required for papermaking is consumed in removing water by the use of steam in the paper machine’s drying section. It is also known that even a small reduction in steam use can result in a significant reduction in production costs and environmental effects. To date, a great deal of research has been undertaken, aimed at improving the performance of the drying section by making more efficient use of dryer steam. This paper investigates a new approach to reducing thermal energy use in paper making by seeking to enhance the amount of water removed in sections of the machine prior to the drying section. The proposed method is focused on sequential modelling of the effect of vacuums used in the forming section on the thermal energy consumption in the drying section. The primary models explain how different vacuum pressures can affect the flow of water from the sheet in the forming section whilst the secondary models describe the effect of increased drainage on the steam requirements in the dryer. Operational data from a UK paper mill are used to illustrate the proposed method. The models developed can have subsequent application to optimising the use of thermal energy in paper making. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, a systematic review of academic literature and policy papers since 2008 is undertaken with an aim of identifying the prevalent energy systems models and tools in the UK. A list of all referenced models is presented and the literature is analysed with regards sectoral coverage and technological inclusion, as well as mathematical structure of models. The paper compares available models using an appropriate classification schema, the introduction of which is aimed at making the model landscape more accessible and perspicuous, thereby enhancing the diversity of models within use. The distinct classification presented in this paper comprises three sections, which specify the model purpose and structure, technological detail and mathematical approach. The schema is not designed to be comprehensive, but rather to be a broad classification with pertinent level of information required to differentiate between models. As an example, the UK model landscape is considered and 22 models are classified in three tables, as per the proposed schema. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consumption patterns of Western nations are generally deemed to be unsustainable. Yet there is little attempt to restrain either material throughput or income growth. Nonetheless, in the face of the need to make ‘deep’ cuts in carbon emissions (for instance), consumption restraint may be a perfectly legitimate response. This paper explores the potential for a Reduced Consumption Scenario in the UK constructed by assuming that households achieve a specific ‘minimum income standard’ which is deemed to provide a decent life for each household type. The minimum income standards are taken from a recent study for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and include not only subsistence commodities such as food, warmth and shelter but also the means to participate effectively in society. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation study produced detailed household expenditure budgets for these income standards. The paper uses an environmentally extended Quasi-Multi-Regional Input–Output model to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions required in the production and distribution of all goods and services purchased according to these budgets. Our results show that average household GHG emissions in the UK would be around 37% lower in the Reduced Consumption Scenario than they are currently. We explore several implications of these findings including: the need to change social norms around consumption, the need for investment to improve the thermal performance of homes and the need to develop new transport infrastructures. We also address the potential to reduce emissions below the level achieved in this Scenario and discuss the implications for policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper outlines the development and application of a domestic heat pump model for space heating and cooling energy. The model is intended to bridge the gap between the single coefficient of performance parameter currently used in the UK procedures for the assessment of the energy efficiency of dwellings and the dynamic simulation models frequently developed for the academic estimation of heat pump energy use. It is responsive to variations in source and sink temperatures whilst being simple enough to be embedded in a spreadsheet model. The model was developed by: building a regression model, using heat pump performance test results, relating heat pump coefficient of performance to the differential between source and sink temperatures – “lift”; deriving estimating rules for monthly supply temperature estimates for commonly-used heat pump sources and for demand temperatures for normal wet central heating sinks to give a monthly estimate for the source/sink differential; embedding the regression model in the UK standard model for domestic energy estimation, with additional routines to estimate energy consumption for additional heat and for space cooling. The model developed was validated by comparison with the existing BREDEM model. Compared with the standard BREDEM estimates, the resulting model showed correct response to changes in ambient temperatures, allowing correct estimating of consumption for additional heat under conditions of climate change. It showed variation of heat pump coefficient of performance across the year, allowing better estimation of winter peak load. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: openair is an R package primarily developed for the analysis of air pollution measurement data but which is also of more general use in the atmospheric sciences. The package consists of many tools for importing and manipulating data, and undertaking a wide range of analyses to enhance understanding of air pollution data. In this paper we consider the development of the package with the purpose of showing how air pollution data can be analysed in more insightful ways. Examples are provided of importing data from UK air pollution networks, source identification and characterisation using bivariate polar plots, quantitative trend estimates and the use of functions for model evaluation purposes. We demonstrate how air pollution data can be analysed quickly and efficiently and in an interactive way, freeing time to consider the problem at hand. One of the central themes of openair is the use of conditioning plots and analyses, which greatly enhance inference possibilities. Finally, some consideration is given to future developments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Ozone Source–Receptor Model (OSRM) is a Lagrangian trajectory model developed to describe photochemical ozone production in the UK. The OSRM builds on existing boundary layer trajectory models used previously for assisting the development of UK ozone policy, but has a number of notable differences. A novel feature of the OSRM is a surface conversion module to represent the vertical gradient in ozone arising from chemical loss and deposition to the surface. This has significantly improved the performance of the model, especially in urban areas. In this paper, the modelling system is described and its performance against measured ozone concentrations and metrics and other UK ozone models is discussed. The model has been used to calculate future ozone concentrations in the UK and thus to assess a number of possible control measures developed for the UK Air Quality Strategy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Traditionally, researchers have employed statistical methods to model crime. However, these approaches are limited by being unable to model individual actions and behaviour. Brantingham and Brantingham (1993) described that in their opinion a useful and productive model for simulating crime would have the ability to model the occurrence of crime and the motivations behind it both temporally and spatially. This paper presents the construction and application of an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating occurrences of residential burglary at an individual level. It presents a novel framework that allows both human and environmental factors to be simulated. Although other agent-based models of crime do exist, this research represents the first working example of integrating a behavioural framework into an ABM for the simulation of crime. An artificial city, loosely based on the real city of Leeds, UK, and an artificial population were constructed, and experiments were run to explore the potential of the model to realistically simulate the main processes and drivers within this system. The results are highly promising, demonstrating the potential of this approach for both understanding processes behind crime and improving policies and developing effective crime prevention strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The concept of the water footprint has been recently introduced as an important indicator for human-induced water consumption. The water footprint is defined as the total volume of water used during production and consumption of goods and services as well as direct water consumption by humans. Water is not only consumed directly but also indirectly in production processes. Therefore, calculating the water footprint enables us to quantify total water consumed along the whole global supply chain. In this paper, we develop a regional input–output (IO) model extended by water consumption coefficients to quantify the respective domestic water footprint for different consumption categories for the South-East and North-East of England and the UK, i.e. the water consumed directly and indirectly along the regional supply chain. In addition, we calculate the total water footprints which include both domestic water consumption and the water required in other countries to produce goods and services imported and consumed in the region under investigation through applying a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. Both footprints also include households'' direct consumption of water. With regards to the two regions, we can observe a very pronounced regional disparity of regional (domestic and total) water footprints between the relatively water-scarce South-East and the water-rich North-East of England. We find that the domestic water footprint per capita in the South-East is 22% higher than the domestic water footprint per capita in the North-East. The key water consumers include Agriculture, Food Products, Electricity and Gas Production, and Hotel and Catering. The total water footprints per capita in the South-East (1257m3/year) are more than twice the ones in the North-East (597m3/year). The domestic water footprint focuses only on the supply chain effects and associated water consumption within the regional boundaries, which are usually of higher interest to policy makers and water companies concerned with the balance of supply and demand of water resources within their respective administrative boundaries or watersheds. The total water footprint allows assessing global effects and supports global supply chain management and is also introducing notions of fairness and equity in terms of resource consumption. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The UK government’s economy-wide 60% carbon dioxide reduction target by 2050 requires a paradigm shift in the whole energy system. Numerous analytical studies have concluded that the power sector is a critical contributor to a low carbon energy system, and electricity generation has dominated the policy discussion on UK decarbonisation scenarios. However, range of technical, social and market challenges, combined with alternate market investment strategies mean that large scale deployment of key classes of low carbon electricity technologies is fraught with uncertainty. The UK MARKAL energy systems model has been used to investigate these long-term uncertainties in key electricity generation options. A range of power sector specific parametric sensitivities have been performed under a ‘what-if’ framework to provide a systematic exploration of least-cost energy system configurations under a broad, integrated set of input assumptions. In this paper results of six sensitivities, via restricted investments in key low carbon technologies to reflect their technical and political uncertainties, and an alternate investment strategies from perceived risk and other barriers, have been presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper applies the event analysis for systemic teamwork (EAST) method to an example of military command and control. EAST offers a way to describe system level emergent properties that arise from the complex interactions of system components (human and technical). These are described using an integrated methods approach and modelled using Task, Social and Propositional networks. The current article is divided into three parts: a brief description of the military command and control context, a brief description of the EAST method, and a more in depth presentation of the analysis outcomes. The emergent properties of the military scenario relate to the degree of system reconfigurability, systems level situational awareness and the role of mediating technology. The findings are compared with similar analyses undertaken in civilian domains, in which the latest developments in command and control, under the aegis of Network Enabled Capability (NEC), are already in place. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a socio-economically disaggregated framework for attributing CO2 emissions to people's high level functional needs. Based around a quasi-multi-regional input–output (QMRIO) model, the study, in theory, takes into account all CO2 emissions that arise from energy used in production of goods and services to satisfy UK household demand, whether the emissions occur in the UK or abroad. Results show that CO2 emissions attributable to households were 15% above 1990 levels in 2004, and that although absolute decoupling occurred between household expenditure and CO2 during the UK's switch from coal to gas in the early 1990s, since then only slight relative decoupling is evident. The proportion of CO2 that arises outside UK borders in support of UK consumption is rising, and reducing these emissions is particularly problematic in a global trading system. Investigation into the carbon footprint of different segments of the UK population shows wide variation: the segment with the highest carbon footprint emits 64% more CO2 than the segment with the lowest. Results show that recreation and leisure are responsible for over one quarter of CO2 emissions in a typical UK household in 2004. We conclude that expanding lifestyle aspirations are significant factors in driving household CO2 emissions, but the study also emphasizes that attention must be paid to the infrastructures and institutions that result in considerable amounts of CO2 being locked up in basic household activities through which people meet their everyday needs for subsistence, protection, and communication with family and friends. The findings highlight the sheer scale of the challenge facing UK policy-makers, and suggest that policies should be targeted towards segments of society responsible for the highest carbon footprints. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

CORINAIR atmospheric emission inventories are frequently used input data for air quality models with a domain situated in Europe. In CORINAIR emission inventories, sources are broken down over 11 major source categories. This paper presents spatial surrogates for the disaggregation of CORINAIR atmospheric emission inventories for input of air pollutants and particulate matter to grid or polygon based air quality model domains inside Europe. The basis for the disaggregation model was the CLC2000 land cover data to which statistical weights were added. Weights were population census data for residential emissions, employment statistics for agricultural and industrial area emissions, livestock statistics for ammonia emissions and annual aircraft movements for emissions realized by air transport. Additional road and off-road network information was used to disaggregate emissions realized by traffic. A comparison of top down produced emission estimates with spatially resolved national emission data for The Netherlands and the United Kingdom gave confidence in the present spatial surrogates as a tool for the top down production of atmospheric emission maps. Explained variance at a spatial resolution of 5km was >70% for CO, NMVOC and NO x , >60% for PM10 and almost 50% for SO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The present paper investigates the cyclical nature of Consumer Sentiments Indices (CSIs) for the US and UK. Using Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models the empirical analysis indicates that the US CSI is mean reverting but adjusts asymmetrically and downwardly rigid. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]