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• Hazard zone methodology: The paper employs a hazard zone methodology, typically used for managing erosion risk to modern infrastructure, to assess and manage the risk to coastal archaeological heritage. • Coastal archaeological heritage at risk: Coastal archaeological heritage in Aotearoa/New Zealand is under threat from coastal erosion, with accelerated risk due to rising sea levels. • Projected sea-level rise impact: The study predicts that a relatively modest 20 cm of sea-level rise, expected by 2040, may put around 8 % (155) of coastal archaeological sites at risk, and a more significant 1 m of sea-level rise could threaten approximately 19 % (356) of sites. • Connection to indigenous communities: The coastal archaeological heritage is closely tied to Māori, the indigenous ancestral communities of Aotearoa/New Zealand. • Adaptive planning pathways: Scenarios are presented to assist stakeholders in assessing heritage risk, providing an opportunity for coastal managers to incorporate heritage considerations into adaptive planning pathways. Coastal archaeological heritage is in danger of being lost to coastal erosion, the risk of which is amplified by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). In Aotearoa/New Zealand, coastal archaeological heritage is closely associated with indigenous ancestral communities, but our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in coastal erosion risk for cultural heritage is limited. Coastal erosion hazard zones have typically been implemented to manage erosion risk to modern infrastructure at regional scales. In this study, we applied a hazard zone methodology in the context of coastal archaeological heritage for a selected region of Aotearoa (Te Tai Tokerau/Northland). Historical coastal change analyses reveal that most beaches in the region have been stable or slightly accretionary over the past ∼80 years, but a reversal of this trend is likely under the projected SLR, which is expressed in the coastal erosion hazard zones. Our analyses indicate that ∼8 % (155) of coastal archaeological sites in Te Tai Tokerau/Northland may be at risk of erosion with a relatively modest 20 cm of SLR, which is expected for the region by 2040, and ∼19 % (356) of sites are threatened by 1 m of SLR. Scenarios are presented that should assist a broad range of stakeholders to assess heritage risk and provide an opportunity for coastal managers to include heritage within adaptive planning pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The field of automatic speech recognition (ASR) is discussed from the viewpoint of pattern recognition (PR). This tutorial examines the problem area, its methods, successes and failures, focusing on the nature of the speech signal and techniques to accomplish useful data reduction. Comparison is made with other areas of PR. Suggestions are given for areas of future progress. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In a recent paper, Aceves and Evans computed information and semantic density measures for hundreds of languages, and showed that these measures predict the pace and breadth of ideas in communication. Here, we summarize their key findings and situate them in a broader debate about the adaptive nature of language. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is often assumed that adaptation — a temporary change in sensitivity to a perceptual dimension following exposure to that dimension — is a litmus test for what is and is not a "primary visual attribute". Thus, papers purporting to find evidence of number adaptation motivate a claim of great significance: That number is something that can be seen in much the way that canonical visual features, like color, contrast, size, and speed, can. Fifteen years after its reported discovery, number adaptation's existence seems to be nearly undisputed, with dozens of papers documenting support for the phenomenon. The aim of this paper is to offer a counterweight — to critically assess the evidence for and against number adaptation. After surveying the many reasons for thinking that number adaptation exists, we introduce several lesser-known reasons to be skeptical. We then advance an alternative account — the old news hypothesis — which can accommodate previously published findings while explaining various (otherwise unexplained) anomalies in the existing literature. Next, we describe the results of eight pre-registered experiments which pit our novel old news hypothesis against the received number adaptation hypothesis. Collectively, the results of these experiments undermine the number adaptation hypothesis on several fronts, whilst consistently supporting the old news hypothesis. More broadly our work raises questions about the status of adaptation itself as a means of discerning what is and is not a visual attribute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper models the real-time adaptation of utility when individuals have a limited capacity to make fine distinctions. A simple adaptive mechanism is proposed that adapts utility to an arbitrary distribution of rewards in a way that is ultimately optimal, in terms of minimizing the probability of errors. A modified simple mechanism is approximately optimal in terms of maximizing expected utility. The model generates the so-called "hedonic treadmill" and induces a preference for rising consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern distributed systems are becoming pervasive and increasingly provided with adaptation, (self-)reconfiguration and mobility capability. On one side, to face the challenges of the highly dynamic environments where they are deployed. On the other side, to keep production/maintenance costs down. Therein lies the increasing demand for formal models encompassing all of these aspects (besides concurrency). Hardly any of the classical formalisms like Petri Nets, Automata, and Process Algebra, even though powerful, permits designers to easily specify dynamic structural changes to systems and evaluate their impact on system behaviour. That has led to several extensions of classical formal models (e.g., the Pi calculus or the Nets-within-Nets paradigm) rarely accompanied by suitable analysis techniques. A recent formalization of a class of Rewritable Place-Transition Nets (RwPT) in Maude has proved potentially convenient to specify dynamically reconfigurable systems. Concerning analogous proposals, the RwPT formalism provides more abstraction/flexibility in modelling and efficiency in analysis. Nevertheless, its ability to scale the size of distributed systems built of several similar (nested) components is limited. This paper presents a compositional approach to define large RwPT models in a typical algebraic way and to exploit the modular structure of models during the analysis: Symmetries are implicitly captured by composite node-labelling (reflecting the model's hierarchical structure) that is preserved by net rewrites. A distributed, gracefully degrading production system is used as a case study. Experimental evidence points out the dramatic impact of the approach against a non-modular one and the advantages over alternative techniques. Even if the emphasis is on state-space-based verification, the paper shows the convenience of combining it with structural analysis, which is typical of Petri nets as well. For that purpose, rewrite-rule abstractions are given in the form of guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Twenty years ago, a seminal paper summarized the role of sexual selection in speciation as the coordinated evolution of (male) courtship signals and (female) preferences leading to prezygotic (behavioral) isolation between divergent lineages. Here, we discuss areas of progress that inspire an updated perspective. First, research has identified multiple mechanisms of sexual selection, in addition to female mate choice, that drive the origin and maintenance of species. Second, reviews and empirical data now conclude that sexual selection alone will rarely lead to reproductive isolation without ecological divergence, and we discuss the assumptions and possible exceptions underlying that conclusion. Finally, we consider the variable ways in which sexual selection contributes to divergence according to the spatial, temporal, social, ecological, and genomic context of speciation. We revisit a seminal paper on sexual selection and speciation published two decades ago by Panhuis et al. in TREE. Our understanding of the role of sexual selection in speciation has expanded over the past 20 years. Several different mechanisms of sexual selection beyond female choice contribute to speciation. Sexual selection and its interactions with ecological, temporal, spatial, social, and genomic context have important and varying roles in speciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is transforming landscapes and land use practices. As the state territorializes climate risk via land use planning instruments, it transforms the operation of legal rights. In the Global North, this is generally understood as imposing constraints on private property rights. In the Global South, the literature focuses on the way planning instruments create or transform property rights. Using case studies from the Philippines, this paper demonstrates that, in property orders marked by high levels of informality, the land use planning process does not constrain state-given property rights, nor only create or attenuate rights. Instead, it can transform entire property orders, displacing long-term systems of informal land tenure derived from possessory interests and reifying state-sanctioned forms of title. This reordering of systems has significant consequences for the emergent, nominally climate-resilient landscape and the operation of state power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Youth in the legal system are at high risk for opioid and other substance use problems and exhibit high rates of trauma exposure. Trauma-focused therapeutic approaches to prevent substance use show promise, but few evidence-based interventions are designed with justice-involved youth in mind. Consequently, implementing trauma-informed, evidence-based interventions within juvenile justice systems is challenging. The current paper describes the systematic adaptation of Trust-Based Relational Intervention (TBRI) as a family-centered substance use prevention program for youth transitioning from secure residential facilities. The study utilized the ADAPT-ITT methodological framework to adapt TBRI Caregiver Training, an evidence-based, trauma-informed intervention designed to help caregivers support children and youth with histories of trauma. Phases of adaptation included (1) Assessment , (2) Decision , (3) Prototype Development , and (4) Testing and Integration. The adaptation process explored contextual factors (e.g., systems, facilities, and staff) and the needs of the new target population (i.e., youth in the legal system and their caregivers). Adaptations were made to both content (e.g., terminology and activities) and structure (e.g., session duration and delivery setting) with input from participants from the target population, key stakeholders, and content experts. The systematic adaptation of the intervention model resulted in a two-phase, four-component intervention package that can be implemented in juvenile justice settings as part of youth reentry services. The primary intervention, delivered while youth are in residential facilities, includes the TBRI Caregiver Curriculum , TBRI Youth & Young Adult Curriculum , and TBRI Nurture Groups. The secondary intervention, delivered after youth transition home, includes the TBRI Family Coaching Curriculum. Utilizing a systematic methodological framework to guide adaptation has implications for developing accessible, culturally relevant, and contextually appropriate interventions. Accounting for contextual factors and population needs can improve the fit of evidence-based interventions for youth in the legal system, facilitating uptake and ultimately improving outcomes for youth at risk for substance use problems. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04678960. • Trust-Based Relational Intervention adapted for youth in the legal system • Adaptation of evidence-based intervention using ADAPT-ITT methodology • Trauma-informed intervention to prevent substance use among youth in the legal system [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Response and adaptation to the impacts of climate change is a vital and increasing requirement for protected area management. On the ground managers of cultural and natural values in protected places have requested practical guidance on how to undertake climate change impact analysis, vulnerability assessment, and adaptation planning together with enhanced capacity for planning with partners, rightsholders and stakeholders. In this paper we explore how co-development and subsequent testing among World Heritage site managers, Indigenous experts and researchers, produced guidance for assessing, responding to and planning for the impacts of climate change on the diverse values of World Heritage sites in Australia. We draw on the diversity of cultural and natural heritage values associated with the terrestrial, coastal and marine environments in Australian World Heritage sites, and the broad range of institutional contexts in these sites, to highlight considerations of relevance to other protected areas (including other World Heritage sites around the world, Ramsar wetlands and marine protected areas). Our paper highlights that, for climate adaptation planning to become a normal part of management, there is a need for ongoing capacity building, including around the use of climate information to inform adaptation planning and implementation, as well as integrating Indigenous perspectives. Building capacity may involve trial and error, negotiation, sharing, sourcing and interpreting new information, and changes in expectations. It will require novel and more dynamic relationships between partners and stakeholders. Managers should include capacity building for climate adaptation planning and implementation as a specific climate adaptation task in their planning. • We present co-developed and tested climate change guidance for World Heritage. • This guidance is co-authored with Indigenous experts. • There is an ongoing need for capacity building in adaptation planning. • Co-development processes can build capacity and bring together diverse knowledge. • World Heritage is a useful context for understanding climate adaptation planning needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistence is an important characteristic of many complex systems in nature, related to how long the system remains at a certain state before changing to a different one. The study of complex systems' persistence involves different definitions and uses different techniques, depending on whether short-term or long-term persistence is considered. In this paper we discuss the most important definitions, concepts, methods, literature and latest results on persistence in complex systems. Firstly, the most used definitions of persistence in short-term and long-term cases are presented. The most relevant methods to characterize persistence are then discussed in both cases. A complete literature review is also carried out. We also present and discuss some relevant results on persistence, and give empirical evidence of performance in different detailed case studies, for both short-term and long-term persistence. A perspective on the future of persistence concludes the work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we estimate the effects of the pandemic on Tunisian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and examine their adaptation processes during the first lockdown. Three simultaneous shocks are examined employing a Difference-in-Differences (DID) framework applied to the national firm census: the labor input shock, the demand shock and the intermediate input shock. We show that SME performance in the first year of the crisis was heavily affected by a combination of labor input, demand and intermediate input shocks, but only the effects of the demand and intermediate input shocks persisted in the following year. Using our own firm survey, we examine three kinds of adaptation strategies: workplace and process adaptation, and trade credit. We find that firms in non-essential sectors were less able to adapt during the first lockdown, suggesting that firm adaptation seems to be more driven by capability than by necessity. • The combined demand, labor and intermediate input shocks heavily affected SMEs in 2020. • Only the effects of the demand and intermediate input shocks persisted in 2021. • Outward-looking firms and foreign-owned firms adapted better and were more resilient. • Firm adaptation seems to be driven more by capability than by necessity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the aviation sector has long been referenced as contributing to the causes of climate change, the need for aviation to adapt to the consequences of climate change has not been as well researched or considered. The paper is a systematic quantitative literature review on climate change and aviation, which aims to explicate significant issues affecting aviation in a changing climate and to identify the aviation industry responses on climate change and adaptation. There are 46 references involved in the detailed assessment, selected according to variables such as methodology, paper outcomes and industry stakeholder. This emergent aviation and climate change adaptation literature could be broadened to cover more disciplines and approaches, an increased range of aviation stakeholders and go further beyond the larger airport case studies in developed countries. Further practical and policy developments are needed, particularly surrounding adaptation planning in aviation and the social justice implications of associated policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many cities across the world are facing many problems climate change poses to their populations, communities and infrastructure. These vary from increased exposures to floods, to discomfort due to urban heat, depending on their geographical locations and settings. However, even though some cities have a greater ability to cope with climate change challenges, many struggle to do so, particularly in cities in developing countries. In addition, there is a shortage of international studies which examine the links between climate change adaptation and cities, and which at the same time draw some successful examples of good practice, which may assist future efforts. This paper is an attempt to address this information need. The aim of this paper is to analyse the extent to which cities in a sample of developing countries are attempting to pursue climate change adaptation and the problems which hinder this process. Its goal is to showcase examples of initiatives and good practice in transformative adaptation, which may be replicable elsewhere. To this purpose, the paper describes some trends related to climate change in a set of cities in developing countries across different continents, including one of the smallest capital cities (Georgetown, Guyana) and Shanghai, one the world's most populous cities. In particular, it analyses their degree of vulnerability, how they manage to cope with climate change impacts, and the policies being implemented to aid adaptation. It also suggests the use of transformative approaches which may be adopted, in order to assist them in their efforts towards investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure, thereby maximizing investments in urban areas and trying to address their related poverty issues. This paper addresses a gap in the international literature on the problems many cities in developing countries face, in trying to adapt to a changing climate. Unlabelled Image • Studies on adaptation challenges in developing cities are scarce. • Ageing and failing infrastructure limit cities' resilience. • There is a positive relationship between cities' income level and adaptation capacity. • Large population is not a barrier per se to a city's adaptation capacity. • Most cities lack local-level climate policies and programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The complex interconnectedness of climate change, energy demand, and health and long-term care poses current and future cascading challenges for the resilience of older people. • Key interconnections include a concern for the impact of frequent and intense weather events parallel to a global increase in life expectancy and social justice issues connected with strained resources and public infrastructure. • Comprehensive, targeted policies are needed on the national and global level that incentivize sustainable practices, enhance climate resilience, and support vulnerable populations in the Global South, and that mitigate the social justice implications of climate change for older adults. Challenges faced by many countries are energy insecurity, climate change, and the health and long-term care of growing numbers of older people. These challenges are increasingly intersecting with rising energy prices, aging populations, and an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. This paper gives a deeper understanding of the current and predicted interconnections among these challenges through narrative-driven content and thematic analysis from workshops with a diverse group of international stakeholders from the Global North and Global South. Narratives emerged highlighting a complex nexus of interconnections and presenting critical action areas. Targeted local and global policies and interventions are needed to alleviate stress on health systems, encourage the integrated uptake of clean energy sources, and uphold social justice across all economies. Professionals can use this work to inform the design and implementation of effective interventions and increase the resilience of older adults by better preparing for systemic risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nigeria is home to a wide variety of indigenous goat breeds, each of which has evolved to fit its particular environment and is an important genetic resource. Indigenous goat production is intertwined with the lifestyle of Nigerians. The Nigerian livestock industry employs the bulk of the rural work-force, and indigenous goat breeds are abundant in the industry. These breeds are distributed across the diverse agro-ecological production systems, and are carriers of unique and responsive genotypes shaped by the needs of their managers. Despite their unique features, most indigenous goat breeds are characteristically low in production and productivity. Improvement of these breeds represents a logical starting point for improving food security and agricultural productivity in Nigeria. To better understand natural genetic diversity in the indigenous goat breeds and strategies for improvement, better genetic characterization is required. For conservation of Nigeria indigenous goats' breeds germplasm and subsequent improvements; livestock preservation, frozen semen and frozen embryos approaches should be employed. Short tandem repeats (STRs), simple sequence repeats (SSR), amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP), restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and microsatellite makers are suitable for molecular characterization of goat germplasm. However, the conservation of the Nigerian breeds of goats' germplasm are valuable towards improvement and specialization without losing the valuable qualitative and quantitative traits especially adaptability and disease resistance. The germplasm conservation techniques will be valuable in the pursuit of selection for increased production, but the application of the various tools for livestock improvement is constrained by a variety of limitations. The focus of this paper is to elucidate the potential of the genetic diversity by the conservation of their germplasms as a tool for genetic improvement of indigenous goats. Germplasm of indigenous goat breeds from Nigeria was examined in this thorough review, emphasizing their significance, genetic traits, difficulties, and potential for sustainable agriculture and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aimed at estimating the significance of paleoenvironmental changes in the process of the prehistorical human dispersals over Northern Eurasia, and particularly his penetration to the High Latitudes. As follows from the recent investigations, the northeastern part of Europe appears to be settled earlier than it has been supposed until recently. The traces left by the early man in the European Arctic may be dated to 40 000 to 35 000 years BP (43096 to 40159 cal. BP). The Siberian North was colonized in the Late Pleistocene. The materials recovered from the Yanskaya site (71°N) provide evidence of human survival in the Arctic regions of Eastern Siberia at least ca. 28 to 27 ka BP (32780 ± 660 to 31170 ± 520 cal. BP). Valleys in the middle reaches of the Lena and Aldan rivers were populated after 24 000 yr BP (28165 cal. BP). We may identify two main directions in the High Latitude colonization between 40 000 to 12 000 yr BP [43096 to 13907 cal. BP], namely along the basins of the Kama and Pechora rivers in Eastern Europe and by way of the Lena and Yana basins in Northern Asia. West Siberia and the Northeastern Asia were actively populated at the Late Glacial time; the same period was marked by the first human penetration from the Eastern to Western hemisphere (from the Chukchi Peninsula to Alaska) by the 'Bering Land Bridge'. The northernmost regions of the East Siberia, such as Taymyr Peninsula and the New Siberian Islands (Zhokhov Island), were inhabited in the early and middle Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of dry ports has reshaped the international freight shipping market, introducing both competition pressure (i.e., the common hinterland) and cooperation opportunities (sea-rail intermodal) for seaports. This is more evident in China with the development of the China Railway Express. Unlike dry ports, seaports are more vulnerable to climate change-related disasters, calling for investment in adaptation measures. This paper examines how co-opetition with the dry port affects seaport adaptation investment using a two-stage game-theoretical economic model. Results indicate that cooperation leads to more seaport adaptation investment, while competition results in reduced investment. When compared to the social optimal level of adaptation investment, the seaport tends to under-invest (over-invest) when the cooperation (competition) market size is larger. We also analyze how government subsidies in the seaport's adaptation help achieve optimal social adaptation and how the Knightian uncertainty of the disaster occurrence affects seaport adaptation investments. The relevant policy implications are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Two experiments test the perception of a non-standard feature of Scottish English. • Benefit found for high level of long-term familiarity with sociophonetic detail. • Listeners with moderate familiarity over-report the presence of weak postvocalic/r/. • Short-term adaptation to fine phonetic detail is rapid for unfamiliar listeners. • Sensitivity & bias do not reach native-like levels for difficult phonemic contrasts. Relatively little research has been conducted on the effect of hearing an unfamiliar native English accent. This paper tests listeners with varying levels of familiarity with the Glaswegian linguistic environment, presenting them with naturalistic minimal pairs such as hut/hurt – produced by speakers raised in Glasgow – in two-alternative-forced-choice tasks. The results of Experiment 1 show a benefit of long-term familiarity in discriminating minimal pairs with derhoticised /r/, a phonetically eroded form of postvocalic /r/ in working class Glaswegian. Native Glaswegian listeners displayed high sensitivity to difference (d'), and low response bias (c) towards hearing either rhotic or non-rhotic words, indicating accurate perception. Unfamiliar listeners were less sensitive to stimulus difference, and were biased towards hearing plain vowels, demonstrating their unfamiliarity with Glaswegian /r/. Non-rhotic English listeners with a moderate level of experience with Glaswegian showed an effect of 'perceptual hypercorrection', i.e. over-reporting /r/ presence. Experiment 2 found that, following a short period of exposure, English listeners with very little experience with Glaswegian also started to show hypercorrection, suggesting rapid adaptation to novel phonetic detail. These results may be explained by some general principles underlying exemplar and hybrid theories, and contribute to the ongoing research into the complex nature of Scottish /r/. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica is one of the most susceptible regions to climate change on Earth. Rising ocean temperatures, glacier melting, and disruptions of marine ecosystems make this polar region a focus of research on ecosystem transformation associated with ongoing climate change. Within the Antarctic ecosystem, diatoms, a key group of phytoplankton at the base of the marine food web, play a crucial role in maintaining marine ecosystem balance and functioning. Conventionally, fossil diatom assemblages have been investigated in marine sediment records to reconstruct paleoenvironmental conditions and understand climate change patterns of Antarctica. Recently, the application of ancient DNA techniques to ocean sediments (sedimentary ancient DNA, sed aDNA) has provided new insights into diatom community responses to environmental change over geological time scales. One benefit of sed aDNA analysis is that this technique can detect fragile diatom species that do not preserve well and are thus difficult to study via traditional microscopy techniques. In this paper, we review the importance of diatoms as indicators of Antarctic paleoenvironmental change, the novel use of diatom sed aDNA to assist Antarctic paleoenvironmental reconstruction, and the challenges and promises of using the sed aDNA approach. We propose that Fragilariopsis cylindrus , an extant polar diatom species, is an ideal model organism to study adaptation patterns of diatoms to changing climate due to its ecological success through time and the availability of whole-genome information for this species. Novel genetic information obtainable from ancient F. cylindrus, as well as other diatoms, will help us to better predict the evolutionary and adaptive dynamics of this important group of primary producers in the climatically vulnerable Antarctic region. • Climate change in Antarctica and the need to study this polar region. • Diatoms in Antarctic ecosystem and their role as paleoenvironmental indicators. • Using the novel technique of sedimentary ancient DNA (sed aDNA) in Antarctica. • Fragilariopsis cylindrus to study adaptation and evolution of diatoms in Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With an increasing collective awareness of the rapid environmental changes, questions and theories regarding the adaptability of organisms are emerging. Global warming as well as chemical and non-chemical pollution have been identified as triggers of these adaptative changes, but can we link different kinds of stressors to certain phenotypic traits? The physiological adaptation, and particularly endocrine system adaptation, of living beings to urban environments is a fascinating way of studying urban endocrinology, which has emerged as a research field in 2007. In this paper, we stress how endocrine disruption in humans and environment can be studied in the urban environment by measuring the levels of pollution, endocrine activities or adversity. We broaden the focus to include not only exposure to the chemicals that have invaded our private spheres and their effects on wild and domestic species but also non-chemical effectors such as light, noise and climate change. We argue that taking into account the various urban stress factors and their effects on the endocrine system would enable the adoption of new approaches to protect living organisms. • Urban settings pose challenges for humans and animals. They share the same environment and can serve as sentinels. • Challenges in urban environments include pollution, artificial light, electromagnetic waves, noise, climate change, sedentary lifestyle, lack of nature, and endocrine effects. • The endocrine system is vital for organisms' adaptation to their surroundings and has remained consistent throughout evolution. • Considering urban stressors' impact on the endocrine system can lead to new approaches for protecting living organisms. • Comprehensive studies should integrate multiple levels of information and adopt a translational, holistic "One Health" perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an innovative framework is introduced for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal structures, with a primary emphasis on modeling future climate conditions. The framework encompasses several key components: the development of a new climate emulator to facilitate multivariate extreme value analysis; a hybrid statistical–numerical wave propagation strategy; and the integration of a novel compound modeling approach specific to coastal structure sites. These advancements are designed to effectively manage multiple climate scenarios and models within the context of high uncertainty. The methodology is applied and validated for a coastal structure located on the Mediterranean coast in Spain. Focusing on compound wave and sea-level events, the projections indicate an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme conditions, exacerbating coastal impacts such as wave overtopping. For instance, the present-day 500-year coastal flooding level would be associated with a return period of 50 years by mid-century under a stabilization scenario and would be further reduced to 25 years under a high-emission global warming scenario, resulting in important consequences for structure performance if no adaptation is implemented. • Develops a framework for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal structures. • It develops a new climate emulator to facilitate multivariate extreme value analysis. • It encompasses a hybrid statistical–numerical wave propagation strategy. • It integrates a novel compound modeling approach specific to coastal structures sites. • It has been applied and validated for a coastal structure in Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar-powered irrigation system, a low-cost option, ensures varieties of co-benefits both in the domains of climate mitigation and adaptation, and thus has been incorporated as a part of climate project. However, its co-benefits in climate adaptation have not been sufficiently explored, which may result in a lack of insights about co-benefits and prevent wider roll-out and scaling-up. This paper aims at exploring co-benefits of solar-powered irrigation, an adaptation measure, taking a project in a drought-prone area of the northwest part of Bangladesh as a case. Using both interviews and focused group discussion, this research finds that besides generating co-benefits in climate mitigation, there are substantial adaptation co-benefits in various forms including vulnerability reduction and enhancement of resilience. However, many of the co-benefits in climate adaptation are indirect and less visible and realizable in the long-term, such as informal social group formation, improved financial strength, and employment opportunity. Making co-benefits more visible among various stakeholders, and launching a feed-in option may help to scale up solar-powered irrigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an overview of the wide variety of occurrences of mental models in the literature is discussed. They are classified according to two dimensions obtaining four categories of them: static-dynamic and world-mental, where static refers to mental models for static world states or for static mental states and dynamic refers to mental models for world processes or for mental processes. In addition, distinctions are made for what can be done by mental models: they can, for example, be (1) used for internal simulation, they can be (2) adapted, and these processes can be (3) controlled. This leads to a global three-level cognitive architecture covering these three ways of handling mental models. It is discussed that in this cognitive architecture reflection principles play an important role to define the interactions between the different levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selected effect account is regarded by many as one of the most attractive accounts of function. This account assumes that the function of a trait is what it has been selected for. Recently, it has been generalized by Justin Garson to include cases in which selection is understood as a simple sorting process, i.e., a selection process between entities that do not reproduce. However, once extended, this generalized selected effect account seems to ascribe functions to entities for which it looks unintuitive to do so. For instance, the hardness of rocks on a beach being differentially eroded by waves would be ascribed the function of resisting erosion. Garson provides one central argument why, despite appearance, one should not ascribe functions in cases of such sorting processes. In this paper, I start by presenting his argument, which hinges on whether a collection of entities form a population. I find it wanting. I argue instead that some selection processes are evolutionarily more or less interesting and that when a selection process is regarded as evolutionarily uninteresting, it will yield an uninteresting form of function rather than a reason for withholding the concept of function altogether. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Rural innovation is the best practice of farmers' adaptation. • Rural innovations include innovative farming and water management practices. • Informal learning networks enable farmers to learn and share knowledge. • Interactions with extension officials enable the translation of farmers' innovations into adaptation policy. Abstract Agriculture is exposed to climatic impacts, especially in developing countries. Adaptation is the predominant practice that farming communities undertake to deal with these climate-induced challenges. While significant attention has been devoted to farmers' adaptation strategies, little is known about how innovative practices are associated with the improvement of rural livelihoods. To address this gap, the paper attempts to investigate how farmers lead the process of rural innovations that constitute successful forms of adaptation to address the mixed impacts of dyke policies and climate change in two distinct agro-ecological zones (i.e. flooding and salinity) in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). Drawing on qualitative information collected from focus group discussions and interviews across the case studies, the paper argues that farmers are the key innovation actors who contribute to improving rural farming and water management practices. The study suggests that the evolution of farmer-led innovations is mainly attributed to the operation of various informal learning networks that provide important platforms for the generation and diffusion of effective innovative practices across farming communities. It also highlights how farmers contribute their innovative knowledge to local adaptation policies. From the policy perspective, this study sees the development of rural innovation systems as the best practices of farmers' adaptation, which needs to be scaled out to better support agricultural water management in the delta. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Biologists use dynamic programming to study state-dependent decision problems. • These methods cannot feasibly address problems that involve very large state spaces. • They also require that the modeler knows the transition and reward probabilities. • Reinforcement learning methods are able to handle such problems. • They may also provide insight into function and mechanism. Abstract This article focuses on the division of labor between evolution and development in solving sequential, state-dependent decision problems. Currently, behavioral ecologists tend to use dynamic programming methods to study such problems. These methods are successful at predicting animal behavior in a variety of contexts. However, they depend on a distinct set of assumptions. Here, we argue that behavioral ecology will benefit from drawing more than it currently does on a complementary collection of tools, called reinforcement learning methods. These methods allow for the study of behavior in highly complex environments, which conventional dynamic programming methods do not feasibly address. In addition, reinforcement learning methods are well-suited to studying how biological mechanisms solve developmental and learning problems. For instance, we can use them to study simple rules that perform well in complex environments. Or to investigate under what conditions natural selection favors fixed, non-plastic traits (which do not vary across individuals), cue-driven-switch plasticity (innate instructions for adaptive behavioral development based on experience), or developmental selection (the incremental acquisition of adaptive behavior based on experience). If natural selection favors developmental selection, which includes learning from environmental feedback, we can also make predictions about the design of reward systems. Our paper is written in an accessible manner and for a broad audience, though we believe some novel insights can be drawn from our discussion. We hope our paper will help advance the emerging bridge connecting the fields of behavioral ecology and reinforcement learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Purpose This paper reviews the past and future trends of climate change in Malaysia, the major contributors of greenhouse gases and the impacts of climate change to Malaysia. It also reviews the mitigation and adaptations undertaken, and future strategies to manage the impacts of regional climate change. Methodology The review encompasses historical climate data comprising mean daily temperature, precipitation, mean sea level and occurrences of extreme weather events. Future climate projections have also been reviewed in addition to scholarly papers and news articles related to impacts, contributors, mitigation and adaptations in relation to climate change. Findings The review shows that annual mean temperature, occurrences of extreme weather events and mean sea level are rising while rainfall shows variability. Future projections point to continuous rise of temperature and mean sea level till the end of the 21st century, highly variable rainfall and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Climate change impacts particularly on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy. The energy and waste management sectors are the major contributors to climate change. Mitigation of and adaptations to climate change in Malaysia revolve around policy setting, enactment of laws, formulation and implementation of plans and programmes, as well as global and regional collaborations, particularly for energy, water resources, agriculture and biodiversity. There are apparent shortcomings in continuous improvement and monitoring of the programmes as well as enforcement of the relevant laws. Originality/value This paper presents a comprehensive review of the major themes of climate change in Malaysia and recommends pertinent ways forward to fill the gaps of mitigation and adaptations already implemented. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Surface temperatures, sea level and extreme weather events in Malaysia show increasing trends. • More emphasis has been placed on mitigation of climate change than adaptations. • Adaptation strategies which bridge the current gaps of adaptation are crucial. • The review calls for continual improvement of mitigation and adaptation programmes. • Stricter enforcement of laws and penalty is crucial for successful mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • This paper reviewed 82 papers related to Climate Change (CC) impacts on Energy Critical Infrastructure (ECI). • The papers were reviewed with regards to Critical Infrastructure interdependencies and their effects on ECI resilience to CC. • Gaps in the field have been identified and a new framework proposed. Abstract Critical Infrastructure Protection is a relatively new scientific domain stemming from an American Presidential directive PDD-63 of May 1998. Critical Infrastructure (CI) performance and protection are national priorities for all European Union (EU) countries following the introduction of the EU Directive 2008/114/EC, which takes an all hazards approach. This paper has an international focus. At the global and European level, the interest in identifying the impacts of climate change on CIs and extreme weather events (EWE) has increased in the last decades, following several high-profile so-called natural disasters. Concern is evidenced by the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the EU Commission's Staff Working Document on Risk Assessment and Mapping; Guidelines for Disaster Management, SEC (2010) 1626. This paper presents and discusses scientific work which has been published in this area, with a focus on energy CI. The impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on energy CI are initially identified. Important aspects in CI protection such as risk assessment, interdependencies with other sectors, and adaptation/resilience options are subsequently presented and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • This paper estimates the ability of farmers in India to adapt to high temperatures. • The analysis uses short-term weather fluctuations and spatial variation in long-run climate. • Results suggest that adaptation is modestly effective for moderate levels of heat. • Results suggest that adaptation to extreme heat is much more difficult. Abstract Projections suggest that the damages from climate change will be substantial for developing countries. Understanding the ability of households in these countries to adapt to climate change is critical in order to determine the magnitude of the potential damages. In this paper, I investigate the ability of farmers in India to adapt to higher temperatures. I use a methodology that exploits short-term weather fluctuations as well as spatial variation in long-run climate. Specifically, I estimate how damaging high temperatures are for districts that experience high temperatures more or less frequently. I find that the losses from high temperatures are lower in heat-prone districts, a result that is consistent with adaptation. However, while adaptation appears to be modestly effective for moderate levels of heat, my results suggest that adaptation to extreme heat is much more difficult. Extremely high temperatures do grave damage to crops, even in places that experience these temperature extremes regularly. The persistence of negative impacts of high temperatures, even in areas that experience high temperatures frequently, underscores the need for development policies that emphasize risk mitigation and explicitly account for climate-change-related risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Approaches to resilience to climate change can be socially exclusionary if they do not acknowledge diverse experiences of risks or socio-economic barriers to resilience. This paper contributes to analyses of resilience by studying how theories of change (ToC) processes used by development organizations might lead to social exclusions, and seeking ways to make these more inclusive. Adopting insights from participatory monitoring and evaluation, the paper first presents fieldwork from four villages in Myanmar to compare local experiences of risk and resilience with the ToCs underlying pathways to resilience based on building anticipatory, absorptive, and adaptive capacities. The paper then uses interviews with the development organizations using these pathways to identify how ToC processes might exclude local experiences and causes of risk, and to seek ways to make processes more inclusive. The research finds that development organizations can contribute to shared ToCs for resilience, but adopt tacitly different models of risk that reduce attention to more transformative socio-economic pathways to resilience. Consequently, there is a need to consider how resilience and ToCs can become insufficiently scrutinized boundary objects when they are shared by actors with different models of risk and intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

My main goal in this paper is to propose a reformulation of foundational models in behavioral research, including Tinbergen's (1963) well-known four levels of analysis (namely, ontogenetic, mechanistic, functional, and evolutionary questions) and Mayr's (1961) dichotomy between proximate and ultimate causations. After critically evaluating these influential but problematic models, I present a three-level neo-Tinbergenian approach to behavior that considers the triadic integration of behavioral causes, structure, and consequences along a single temporal continuum. I then argue that object-directed play is a good candidate behavior to apply this new paradigm by presenting significant examples of the combined analysis of at least two of these three levels. Finally, I show how stone handling, a form of culturally-transmitted object play in macaques, is perfectly amenable to this unified three-level explanatory framework. My proposed approach fits recent theoretical and empirical advances in behavioral biology, has a heuristic value, and may provide numerous benefits to a range of behavioral scientists. • This paper offers a three-level neo-Tinbergenian approach to object play. • It aims to integrate the causes, structure, and consequences of this behavior. • Stone handling in macaques is amenable to this unified explanatory framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increasing trend of global warming and extreme weather conditions, including heat waves and its effects on health, the present study was done to investigate adaptive behaviors of communities in the world for combating heat waves. ology: In this systematic review, out of 1529 results, 57 relevant and authoritative English papers on adaptation to heat waves hazard were extracted and evaluated using valid keywords from valid databases (PubMed, WOS, EMBASE, and Scopus). In addition, multiple screening steps were done and then, the selected papers were qualitatively assessed. Evaluation results were summarized using an Extraction Table. In this paper, the adaptive behaviors for combating heat waves hazard were summarized into 11 categories: Education and awareness raising, Adaptation of critical infrastructure, Governments measures, Health-related measures, Application of early warning system, Protective behaviors in workplace, Physical condition, Adaptive individual behaviors, Design and architecture of the building, Green infrastructure (green cover), and Urban design. The findings of this study showed that community actions have significant effects on adaptation to heat wave. Therefore, for reducing heat wave-related negative health effects and vulnerability, more attention should be paid to the above-mentioned actions for mitigation, preparation, and responding regarding heat waves. CRD42021257747. • Heatwaves have been responsible for the deaths of thousands in recent years. • Regarding the climate change, rising heatwaves, and subsequent global warming, the requirement to be adaptable to the changes is Inevitable. • Adaptive measures cover various aspects of the individual and social life. • In this study, adaptive behaviors to deal with the risk of heat waves were obtained in categories including individual and and social actions. • Individual actions included individual adaptation behaviors and physical conditions, while others were a combination of social actions and inter-organizational coordination, including education and raising awareness, government initiatives, health interventions, building design and architecture, urban design, critical infrastructure, green infrastructure, and occupational safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Drought followed by extreme rain/flooding exposed vulnerabilities in Ceará, Brazil. • Adaptative strategies in dry periods may become maladaptive during extreme rain. • Impacts of and responses to drought, extreme rain, and flooding are interrelated. • Hydrometereological extremes should be considered together in semi-arid regions. As climates continue to change, semi-arid rainfall regimes are projected to become increasingly more extreme, with longer dry periods and fewer, but more intense, heavy rainfall events. This process of hydroclimatic intensification increases the risk associated with successive extreme climate hazards, such as drought and then heavy rainfall, in the same area. However, the development of effective adaptation strategies to drought, heavy rainfall, and flood hazards is hampered by the lack of integrated analyses that consider the interactions among these hazards and responses to them. To increase understanding of these interactions, this paper examines impacts of and adaptive actions taken in response to prolonged drought (2012–2018) and subsequent extreme rainfall and flooding (March and April 2023) in the semi-arid region of Ceará, Northeast Brazil. We find that policies and adaptive measures focus primarily on drought hazard, while preparation for extreme rainfall events and flooding is scant. Management plans and long-term adaptive strategies are being developed for drought and not other extreme hydrometeorological events. Additionally, emergency measures for extreme rainfall and flooding are much less structured than those for drought. As such, the paradigm "Convivência com o semiárido" ("Living with the semi-arid region") remains limited to adapting to drought hazard, ultimately hindering adequate extreme rainfall and drought responses. To promote more effective adaptive strategies in the context of hydroclimatic intensification in semi-arid regions, drought, heavy rainfall, and flood responses must be considered in a more integrated manner to create management plans to prepare for the potential impacts of these hazards into the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate disruption today and anticipated future climate breakdown are reshaping demographic and spatial processes, with profound consequences for societies across the globe. Specifically, migration can become a key strategy to attempt to respond to and cope with environmental change. This paper seeks to make sense of one type of migration, counterurbanisation, in this climate breakdown era. It provides conceptual clarity to what is termed 'climate-related counterurbanisation' vis-à-vis wider climate-induced migration and positions climate disruption within the counterurbanisation literature. Climate-related counterurbanisation is presented as a largely voluntary movement down the settlement hierarchy as a direct or indirect response to climate change, with positive representations of 'rurality' central to the relocation decision: individual adaptation. However, it is mediated by numerous geographically variegated and specific environmental, cultural, social and economic factors. Indeed, it may ultimately come to be seen more as maladaptation than adaptation. While moving from urban to rural may make sense at individual household level, such relocations can overall have much more negative impacts on host rural communities or the urban people left behind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We study how agents' social learning behavior influences market volatility and how the flash crash emerges. • In the usual case, social learning plays a role in reducing total price volatilities and stabilizing the market. • In some excitable regimes, social learning instead acts as the critical factor contributing to a flash crash. • The lower volatility associated with social learning in the stable regime is crucial to give birth to a flash crash. • Many robust simulation experiments have been done to confirm our results. In this paper, we study how agents' social learning behavior influences market volatility and how the flash crash emerges. We build a model of order-driven market, in which agents use a combination of four components to form their return anticipations: a social learning component, a chartist component, a fundamentalist component and a noise induced component. By numerical simulations, we find that social learning plays a double-edged role in market volatilities. On the one hand, social learning plays a role in reducing total price volatilities and stabilizing the market. On the other hand, in some excitable regimes, social learning instead acts as the critical factor contributing to a flash crash. More interestingly, the lower volatility associated with social learning in the stable regime is crucial to give birth to a flash crash. In addition, we do some robust analyses on the roles of social learning by running the model under many different parameter settings. With the increase of the social learning innate parameter, both the average draw-down and draw-up, the average spread and the average gap show a downward trend. Meanwhile, the tail exponents for the draw-downs and draw-ups also show a downward trend, confirming that social learning plays a double-edged role. The chartist belief can stabilize the market when the social influence is not so trusted, while the chartist belief transfers to contribute to the market instability when the social influence is sufficiently trusted. The fundamentalist belief shows quite opposite impacts in respect to the chartist belief. Finally, we summarize typical return and volatility patterns before a flash crash, which will give some inspirations to regulators and investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Market systems interventions are an increasingly common approach to agricultural development. While the impacts of these interventions on poverty reduction and market participation by smallholders has been studied, little is known about their contributions to building climate resilience. This paper analyzes the compatibility of market systems and climate resilience approaches to agricultural development, using the United States government’s Feed the Future program as an empirical case study. Drawing on case studies in Ethiopia and Honduras, the paper examines the synergies and tensions between market systems and climate resilience approaches. The study finds that the market systems interventions have contributed to climate resilience, but also evidence of significant limitations due to fundamental tensions between market system and resilience approaches in terms of what their goals are, who they target, and how they approach their objectives. This study has important implications for the design and implementation of climate resilience programs and policies, as well as the expectations that agricultural development programs will be able to build climate resilience. Recognizing the inherent tensions that exist between market systems approaches and resilience approaches and explicitly discussing the trade-offs between the goals, target audiences, and primary mechanisms of each approach would represent an important step forward if market systems programs are going to contribute to climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical studies of human interaction with climate are one approach through which to understand responses to environmental stress today. Most studies of vulnerability are based upon short timeframes in the recent past and so may focus on its symptoms rather than its underlying causes, or derive exclusively from systems-based approaches that can present historical change without recourse to human agency. This paper makes extensive use of the historical written record to analyse the comparative root-causes of the vulnerability and resilience of rural farming communities to drought over a period of three centuries (1505–1830) in the area between the Zambezi and Save rivers in southern Africa. The paper first considers vulnerability, resilience and adaptation as temporal frameworks, and analyses evidence for drought and its impacts in the pre-colonial past. It then reconstructs agro-ecosystem, livelihood and institutional vulnerability for six societies and settlements over the long-run using an indicator approach. The resultant trajectories of vulnerability are discussed in the context of the differential impacts of past drought, through which the decisive drivers and constraints of vulnerability and resilience are identified. The paper concludes with a number of key themes from this long-run analysis for contemporary vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and points to the importance of institutional adaptation, normative goals, and uneven distributions of power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long term impact posed by climate change risk remains unclear and is subject to diverse interpretations from different maritime stakeholders. The inter-dynamics between climate change and ports can also significantly diversify in different geographical regions. Consequently, risk and cost data used to support climate adaptation is of high uncertainty and in many occasions, real data is often unavailable and incomplete. This paper presents a risk and cost evaluation methodology that can be applied to the analysis of port climate change adaptation measures in situations where data uncertainty is high. Risk and cost criteria are used in a decision-making model for the selection of climate adaptation measures. Information produced using a fuzzy-Bayesian risk analysis approach is utilized to evaluate risk reduction outcomes from the use of adaptation measures in ports. An evidential reasoning approach is then employed to synthesize the risk reduction data as inputs to the decision-making model. The results can assist policymakers in developing efficient adaptation measures that take into account the reduction in the likelihood of risks, their possible consequences, their timeframe, and costs incurred. A technical study across 14 major container ports in Greater China is presented to demonstrate the interaction between cost and risk analysis, and to highlight the applicability of the stated methodology in practice. The paper offers a useful analytical tool for assessing climate change risks to ports and selecting the most cost-effective adaptation measures in uncertain conditions. It can also be used to compare the practitioners’ perceptions of climate risks across different geographical regions, and to evaluate improvements after implementation of the selected adaptation measures with potential budgetary constraints. The methodology, together with the illustrative cases, provides important insights on how to develop efficient climate change adaptation measures in a supply chain context to improve the sustainability of development and enhance adaptation measures for ports, port cities, intermodal transport, supply chains, and urban and regional planning in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In their recent paper, Alkoby et al. (2017) provide the readership with an extensive and very insightful review of the factors influencing NeuroFeedback (NF) performance. These factors are drawn from both the NF literature and the Brain–Computer Interface (BCI) literature. Our short review aims to complement Alkoby et al.’s review by reporting recent additions to the BCI literature. The object of this paper is to highlight this literature and discuss its potential relevance and usefulness to better understand the processes underlying NF and further improve the design of clinical trials assessing NF efficacy. Indeed, we are convinced that while NF and BCI are fundamentally different in many ways, both the BCI and NF communities could reach compelling achievements by building upon one another. By reviewing the recent BCI literature, we identified three types of factors that influence BCI performance: task-specific, cognitive/motivational and technology-acceptance-related factors. Since BCIs and NF share a common goal (i.e., learning to modulate specific neurophysiological patterns), similar cognitive and neurophysiological processes are likely to be involved during the training process. Thus, the literature on BCI training may help (1) to deepen our understanding of neurofeedback training processes and (2) to understand the variables that influence the clinical efficacy of NF. This may help to properly assess and/or control the influence of these variables during randomized controlled trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically explores the linkage between the economic opportunities and climate adaptation and other antecedents in cities. Our dependent variable includes the economic opportunities identified by the cities; our independent variables are the adaptation plans, adaptation actions, climate change risks, incentive types, and incentivized stakeholders. To explore the effects of climate change risks, adaptation plans, adaptation actions, incentive types, and incentivized stakeholders, we used polychoric factor analysis and logistic regression analysis. The results show that a city's climate change adaptation plan and GDP have significant positive relationships with the economic opportunities present in the cities. Meanwhile, climate change risks also have a positive relationship with economic opportunities. Furthermore, economic opportunities present in cities have a negative relationship with three variables: one group of climate actions and two groups of stakeholders. This paper also further discusses the possible effects of incentives in the case of climate change in cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and salinisation present substantial challenges to the sustainability of cropping systems in south-west coastal Bangladesh. This is the third paper in a series reporting a study to assess the impacts of climate change and salinity on the productivity and economic viability of ten current and potential rice-based cropping systems in two coastal villages in Khulna District. In this paper, possible adaptations are assessed, including novel dry-season crops, changed fertilizer use, and changed sowing dates, across five climate and three salinity scenarios. Farmers' estimated, APSIM-simulated, and extrapolated yield distributions were incorporated in budgets for the ten cropping systems, using current and projected salinity levels. Current and projected future prices and costs were used to estimate different measures of profitability. Estimated variability in yields and prices was used to generate probability distributions for these profitability measures, permitting comparison of cropping systems based on profitability and risk. Adaptation through changed fertilizer use (higher or lower, depending on the crop) was projected to give higher returns for some cropping systems. However, larger improvements were obtainable with changes in sowing dates to avoid the worst stresses imposed by climate change and salinity. The loss of production of all crops except watermelon and pumpkin due to salinity was more than offset with changed sowing dates for 2030 and 2060 conditions, irrespective of season. With such adaptations, and allowing for risk, the rice/shrimp system maintained the top ranking in terms of net income per hectare in 2030 and 2060 and the rice/sunflower system maintained the second ranking. The rice/pumpkin/rice system ranked third for 2030 and fourth in 2060 while the rice/maize system moved up to third in 2060. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In some coastal cities there is an urgent need to decide on adaptation investments given the long periods needed to complete the relevant infrastructures. However such decisions are usually made under significant uncertainty due to local climate change and socio-economic impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed four global scenarios according to different representative concentration pathways (RCPs); however, using these scenarios directly is equivalent to using incomplete information in the decision-making process because they do not provide information on what sea level rise behavior is most probable. In this study, I propose a model which assigns probabilities to IPCC scenarios with Local Sea Level Rise (LSLR) information. I obtain expected damage and risk measures for the world's 120 major coastal mega-cities at specific moments in time. That is, I consider uncertainty in both scenario selection and within each scenario. With this information it is possible to make adaptation investment decisions under uncertainty with a criterion of not exceeding certain risk levels in the future. The paper shows that in the year 2100 for the equal probability mixed scenario (25% RCP 2.6, 50% RCP 4.5 and 25 RCP 8.5) the expected damage is US$ 1,251,732 millions for New Orleans and US$ 1,196,517 millions for Guangzhou. The risk measurements show that in that year the damage in the 5% of worse cases will be US$ 2,800,756 millions for Guangzhou and US$ 1,832,466 millions for New Orleans. However, not all countries have sufficient resources to make the necessary adaptation investments, so we analyze expected damage and risk according to World Bank country income groups. The paper shows that the USA and China will need to make major adaptation investments in the future. The coastal LSLR risk in lower-income cities is also calculated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vulnerability of a socio-ecological system to one or more climatic hazards depends on climatic, geophysical, socio-economic and institutional factors. In addition, vulnerability is a scale- and place-dependent concept. While decision-making on adaptation is often made by local government, only a small number of local-scale assessments have been conducted. When indicators are used, global utility functions based on additive or multiplicative aggregation implicitly assume complete compensation between indicators, implying that one source of vulnerability (e.g., proximity to the sea) can always be compensated for by an advantage in another source (e.g., strong social or economic capital) when evidence shows that this is not always the case. This paper presents an indicator-based assessment of vulnerability of eight beaches in Shoalhaven, New South Wales, that are especially exposed to sea level rise. Its goal is twofold. First, it illustrates how indicator-based vulnerability assessments can be applied at a local scale – and not just sectoral, regional and national scales – with the aim of informing local government adaptation planning and resource allocation. In the process, models operationalising the concepts of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are developed for two valued attributes identified through discussions with the local council, namely the well-being of beach residents and the well-being of users of infrastructure systems located at the beaches. Second, the paper studies, for the first time, the way outranking procedures can be applied in real-life vulnerability assessments as a form of data aggregation that better reflects the non-compensatory nature of many vulnerability indicators. The strengths and weaknesses of the outranking approach are discussed, especially the extent to which the concepts of preference, indifference and dominance thresholds can be conveyed to, and their values elicited from, stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urban heat island (UHI) is a phenomenon whereby temperature levels in urban areas are higher than in surrounding rural settings. Urban heat islands are a matter of increasing concern, since they can affect communities by exacerbating air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (due to the greater use of air conditioning) and the occurrence of heat-related illness, and may lead to higher levels of mortality. This paper provides a description of the phenomena of (UHI) and an analysis of how cities are vulnerable to it. It highlights the need for resilience and the variety of means by which the UHI can be tackled. It describes a set of trends in two regions in Germany and Australia, which illustrate the scope of the problem in the northern and southern hemispheres, and the scale of vulnerability. Then, existing UHI vulnerability assessments are analysed to highlight common features and differences. Based on this, we propose a classification of adaptability parameters to support vulnerability assessments. The paper also discusses current mitigation approaches mentioned in the literature, and how these address some vulnerabilities. It concludes that both a better understanding of the UHI phenomena and consideration of the particular context of each city is needed to make urban areas more resilient to UHI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deployable structures belong to a special class of moveable structures that are capable of form and size change. Controlling movement of deployable structures is important for successful deployment, in-service adaptation and safety. In this paper, measurements and control methodologies contribute to the development of an efficient learning strategy and a damage-compensation algorithm for a deployable tensegrity structure. The general motivation of this work is to develop an efficient bio-inspired control framework through real-time measurement, adaptation, and learning. Building on previous work, an enhanced deployment algorithm involves re-use of control commands in order to reduce computation time for mid-span connection. Simulations are integrated into a stochastic search algorithm and combined with case-reuse as well as real-time measurements. Although data collection requires instrumentation, this methodology performs significantly better than without real-time measurements. This paper presents the procedure and generally applicable methodologies to improve deployment paths, to control the shape of a structure through optimization, and to control the structure to adapt after a damage event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food systems will need to undergo considerable transformation. To be better prepared for and resilient to uncertainty and disturbances in the future, resource users and managers need to further develop knowledge about the food and farming system, with its dominating feedback structures and complexities, and to test robust and integrated system-based solutions. This paper investigates how participatory system dynamics modeling can be adapted to groups at the community level with low or no formal educational background. The paper also analyses the refinement of workshop participants’ mental models as a consequence of a participatory system dynamics intervention. For this purpose, we ran two workshops with small-scale farmers in Zambia. Analysis of workshop data and post-workshop interviews shows that participatory system dynamics is well adaptable to support an audience-specific learning-by-doing approach. The use of pictures, objects and water glasses in combination with the basic aspects of causal loop diagramming makes for a well-balanced toolbox. Participants acquire understanding that is also relevant beyond systems thinking in that it offers a range of practical insights such as a critical evaluation of common food security strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is central for climate policy to understand, monitor and forecast greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, generating insights on the key factors and actions with a greater impact to mitigate and adapt to global warming. Focusing on the leading role of cities, it is relevant to build robust and reliable GHG emissions prospects for every city committing to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In this paper, a novel methodology is proposed to build those prospects, presenting a case study with 6231 EU-27 cities and local municipalities taken from the Global Covenant of Mayors (GCoM). Key GHG emissions predictors for the target years of 2020 and 2030 refer to the baseline energy consumption and associated GHG emissions, as well as the population and the national emissions per capita trend. Additionally, other informative predictors are the baseline inventory year, the reduction target, the disaggregated baseline emissions by type of fuel (fossils or renewables), the heating and cooling degree days and the NUTS urban/rural categorization. The proposed methodology allows assessing the cities' achievements based on their expected performance, and it could be further implemented to support new cities willing to commit to a significant reduction of their GHG emissions. • A robust methodology is proposed to predict GHG emissions for cities committing to climate change mitigation and adaptation. • Key predictors refer to local, regional and national sources of information. • A case study is performed with 6231 European cities: 2030 commitments are expected to achieve a 40 % GHG emissions reduction. • The models described in this paper provide useful information to urban policy makers in the climate action planning process. • The results are replicable in the context of transnational initiatives involving cities in the fight against climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]