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Summary: With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes’ theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: In this study, different versions of autoregressive error models are evaluated as post-processors for probabilistic streamflow forecasts. The post-processors account for hydrologic uncertainties that are introduced by the precipitation–runoff model. The post-processors are evaluated with the discrete ranked probability score (DRPS), and a non-parametric bootstrap is applied to investigate the significance of differences in model performance. The results show that differences in performance between most model versions are significant. For these cases it is found that (1) error models with state dependent parameters perform better than those with constant parameters, (2) error models with an empirical distribution for the description of the standardized residuals perform better than those with a normal distribution, and (3) procedures that use a logarithmic transformation of the original streamflow values perform better than those that use a square root transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Long monthly streamflow and sediment load series observed at the Datong station located in the lower Yangtze River basin were analyzed using the scanning t-test, F-test and coherency analysis techniques. The results indicated that: (1) different changing properties of the first and the second moments of the hydrological series on different time scales were observed, reflecting different driving factors influencing the hydrological processes of the lower Yangtze River basin; (2) a generally decreasing trend can be identified after the mid-1980s. Significant abrupt changes in sediment load were analyzed in the sediment load series. However, more complicated changing patterns can be observed in the changes in streamflow. Generally decreasing sediment load and increasing streamflow gave rise to anti-phase relations between sediment load and the streamflow on longer time scales. In-phase relations between sediment load and streamflow on shorter time scales may imply a considerable influence of the hydrological dynamics on sediment transport; and (3) human activities, particularly the construction of water storage reservoirs, exerted a massive influence on sediment load variations. Construction of a large amount of water reservoirs on the tributaries of the Yangtze River and the Gezhouba Dam on the mainstem of the Yangtze River seem to be the main factors responsible for abrupt changes in the sediment load. Construction of the Three Gorges Dam causes a sharp decrease and unstable variability in sediment load variations, which may pose new challenges for the ecological environment conservation and the deltaic management of the Yangtze Delta region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights: [•] We examined the long-term hydro-climatic changes of the Poyang Lake catchment. [•] We investigated the relative impacts of climate change and human activities. [•] Relative effects varied among sub-catchments under different decades. [•] Increased catchment streamflow was mainly affected by climate variability. [•] Comprehensive effect of specific human activities led to a decrease of streamflow. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]