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Emergencies have a significant impact on the passenger flow of urban rail transit. It is of great practical significance to accurately predict the urban rail transit passenger flow and carry out research on its temporal and spatial distributions under emergency conditions. Urban rail transit operating units currently use video surveillance information mainly to process emergencies and rarely use computer vision technology to analyze passenger flow information collected. Accordingly, this paper proposes a passenger flow-based temporal and spatial distribution model for urban rail transit emergencies based on the CPT. First, this paper clarifies the categories and classification of urban rail transit emergencies, analyzes the factors affecting passenger route selection, and establishes a generalized travel cost model for passengers under emergencies. Second, this paper establishes a passenger route choice behavior model for urban rail transit based on the cumulative prospect theory. Finally, taking Beijing as an example, this paper analyzes passenger travel behavior under emergencies based on multiple logistic regression models and analyzes the impact of emergencies on rail transit travel behavior. The research results show that the cumulative prospect theory can better describe the route choice behavior of rail transit passengers under emergencies than the existing models, and this model is of great significance for handling urban rail transit emergencies. The model proposed in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the government and relevant departments to formulate traffic management measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emergencies have a significant impact on the passenger flow of urban rail transit. It is of great practical significance to accurately predict the urban rail transit passenger flow and carry out research on its temporal and spatial distributions under emergency conditions. Urban rail transit operating units currently use video surveillance information mainly to process emergencies and rarely use computer vision technology to analyze passenger flow information collected. Accordingly, this paper proposes a passenger flow-based temporal and spatial distribution model for urban rail transit emergencies based on the CPT. First, this paper clarifies the categories and classification of urban rail transit emergencies, analyzes the factors affecting passenger route selection, and establishes a generalized travel cost model for passengers under emergencies. Second, this paper establishes a passenger route choice behavior model for urban rail transit based on the cumulative prospect theory. Finally, taking Beijing as an example, this paper analyzes passenger travel behavior under emergencies based on multiple logistic regression models and analyzes the impact of emergencies on rail transit travel behavior. The research results show that the cumulative prospect theory can better describe the route choice behavior of rail transit passengers under emergencies than the existing models, and this model is of great significance for handling urban rail transit emergencies. The model proposed in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the government and relevant departments to formulate traffic management measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The metro system plays a very important role in the urban multimodal transportation system, yet it is susceptible to accidents. A well-designed metro system needs to provide alternative routes to travellers both in the disruptive events and the normal operating conditions for providing rerouting opportunities and balancing crowded lines. This paper provides a new dimension of assessing metro network performance—travellers' route redundancy (or route diversity), which is defined as the number of behaviourally effective routes between each origin-destination (O-D) pair in the network. The route redundancy of metro network is evaluated by statistical indicators of the distribution of the O-D-level number of effective routes. Compared with the existing connectivity and accessibility measures of topology network performance, route redundancy is also based on the topology network, but it takes the travellers' route choice into consideration. Specifically, the effective routes between each O-D pair would provide disaggregated information from the travellers' perspective. Case studies in four metropolises in the world, i.e., Shanghai, Beijing, London, and Tokyo, are conducted to examine the predisaster preparedness of the four metro networks explicitly from the perspective of route redundancy. The results indicate that the London metro network has the best route redundancy performance in terms of the statistical indicators of the distribution of the O-D level number of effective routes. Furthermore, the results of route redundancy are compared with typical measures of topology network performance in terms of measuring connectivity and accessibility of metro networks. Their differences are attributed to the fact that the route redundancy measure considers the travellers' O-D-level route choice beyond the pure network topology and the shortest path considerations of the existing measures. The route redundancy proposed in this paper could assist in evaluating the predisaster preparedness of current or planning metro networks from O-D level to network level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a multimodal public transport network, transfers are inevitable. Planning and managing an efficient transfer connection is thus important and requires an understanding of the factors that influence those transfers. Existing studies on predicting passenger transfer flows have mainly used transit assignment models based on route choice, which need extensive computation and underlying behavioral assumptions. Inspired by studies that use network properties to estimate public transport (PT) demand, this paper proposes to use the network properties of a multimodal PT system to explain transfer flows. A statistical model is estimated to identify the relationship between transfer flow and the network properties in a joint bus and metro network. Apart from transfer time, the number of stops, and bus lines, the most important network property we propose in this study is transfer accessibility. Transfer accessibility is a newly defined indicator for the geographic factors contributing to the possibility of transferring at a station, given its position in a multimodal PT network, based on an adapted gravity-based measure. It assumes that transfer accessibility at each station is proportional to the number of reachable points of interest within the network and dependent on a cost function describing the effect of distance. The R-squared of the regression model we propose is 0.69, based on the smart card data, PT network data, and Points of Interest (POIs) data from the city of Beijing, China. This suggests that the model could offer some decision support for PT planners especially when complex network assignment models are too computationally intensive to calibrate and use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beijing has an enormous transportation challenge: to relieve the extreme congestion that has arisen, largely due to overpopulation. To meet this challenge, the city administration has decided to extend its territory; a new city will be planned and built. This new city, Xiongan, will reduce the burden on the capital. A new high-speed railway (HSR) line is designed to transport millions of people every day within less than an hour. This study applies the potential of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and multicriteria methods, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE II), to determine the best alternative of transportation for the new high-speed railway line between Beijing and Xiongan, comparing different ones. The methodology consists of two stages. In the first stage remote sensing datasets such as ASTER DEM and LANDSAT images and GIS software such as ERDAS IMAGINE and ArcGIS have been used to determine settlement distribution, station location, elevation model, slope percentage, vegetation percentage, and route alignment for a new high-speed railway line for better understanding of its spatial distribution pattern over the study area. The second phase of the study focusing on assessing the various alternatives of transportation has been determined, and three approaches to choosing the best alternative have been introduced. In the paper we examine criteria associated with travel and economic criteria: travel time, the number of train stops, public satisfaction with transport, the number of seats per day, connectivity, operating costs, profit, and the payback period. Six alternatives of transportation have been studied. The stops in Guan and stations in the metro's rings have been investigated. In the second stage, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and PROMETHEE II methods have been used to select the best alternative. The first approach uses only criteria related to the trip, as the criterion to choose the best alternative is the maximum of the net outranking flows by PROMETHEE II method; the second approach applies two independent criteria: the ratio of normalized operating costs and the normalized net outranking flows, and the ratio of the normalized payback period and the normalized net outranking flows; the third approach includes all defined criteria, and the criterion of choosing the best alternative is the maximum of net outranking flows as calculated by the PROMETHEE II method. The approaches have been analyzed with the purpose of comparing the results. The result indicates that it is expedient to have a station in Guan, which will increase the connection and connectivity among the cities while providing fast mobility options for a large number of inhabitants of Guan city. Furthermore, the result from Remote Sensing and GIS analysis demonstrates that the proposed high-speed railway line will be environmentally sustainable and is economically/socially feasible and that it will certainly attract current and future passengers because of their needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]