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Many recent studies find that international political conflictâ€"operationalized in a variety of waysâ€"harms trade. Well-known cases help to underscore these general findings. For example, Cold War tensions helped to undermine East-West trade, and trade between India and Pakistan slowed sharply in the years after partition. On the other hand, however, trade between adversaries also appears to vary substantially across cases. Indeed, trade can sometimes flourish despite intense political rivalry. In the current relationship between mainland China and Taiwan, for example, China has become Taiwan’s largest trading partner despite persistent political tension across the Taiwan Strait.How can we explain variation in the extent to which states trade with their adversaries? Building on existing literature, I develop a framework through which to understand how domestic coalitions concerning trade with an adversary are likely to form. While some actors are likely to favor or oppose trade for purely economic reasons, those without a direct economic stake in the relationship are likely to focus more on the political and security consequences of trade with the adversary. In this framework, two variables emerge as central in determining a country’s trade policy with an adversary: the relative political strength of internationalist versus protectionist economic interests, and whether those concerned primarily with politics believe trade will have positive or negative political and security externalities. I use the framework to develop several testable hypotheses, and evaluate them via short case studies of three contemporary rivalries: China/Taiwan; India/Pakistan; and North Korea/South Korea ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IR is in search of a newer and more visionary methodological toolkit. Scenario building based on expert knowledge of historical trends and theoretically informed analysis appears to offer insights for IR scholars as well as policy-makers. This paper aims ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The linkage between domestic and international determinants of foreign policy has long been a widely debated topic in the field of international relations, and foreign policy analysis in particular. The paper takes a unique approach to examine the domestic vs. international determinants of foreign policy by looking at the empirical evidence for the case of China and Taiwan. Findings suggest that, from China’s perspective, Taiwan’s domestic political changes do have significant influence on China’s decision making towards Taiwan. Although such changes may have been caused by Taiwan’s internal democratization, China is not directly reacting to Taiwan’s democratization per se; rather it is reacting to policy changes as a result of Taiwan’s internal democratic changes. Moreover, China’s policy towards Taiwan does not seem to be directly linked to China’s internal power politics. Rather, Taiwan’s policy toward China and Taiwan’s internal politics seem to be playing a more important role in determining China’s Taiwan policy. From Taiwan’s perspective, however, democratization has significantly influenced Taiwan’s behavior towards China. Cross-Strait decisions from both sides are significantly related to Taiwan’s internal relations. Therefore, for China’s Taiwan policy, evidence supports international or external determinants of foreign policy; whereas for Taiwan’s China policy, evidence supports domestic or internal determinants of foreign policy. A direct speculation is that regime type matters in what kind of factors matter more for states’ foreign policy. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]