Search

The increasing global warming trend has resulted in the mass loss of most glaciers. The Urumqi Vally, located in the dry and cold zone of China, and its widely dispersed glaciers are significant to the regional ecological environment, oasis economic development, and industrial and agricultural production. This is representative of glaciers in Middle Asia and represents one of the world's longest observed time series of glaciers, beginning in 1959. The Urumqi Headwater Glacier No. 1 (UHG-1) has a dominant presence in the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). This paper supplies a comprehensive analysis of past studies and future modeling of glacier changes in the Urumqi Valley. It has received insufficient attention in the past, and the mass balance of UHG-1 was used to verify that the geodetic results and the OGGM model simulation results are convincing. The main conclusions are: The area of 48.68 ± 4.59 km2 delineated by 150 glaciers in 1958 decreased to 21.61 ± 0.27 km2 delineated by 108 glaciers in 2022, with a reduction of 0.47 ± 0.04 km2·a−1 (0.96% a−1 in 1958–2022). The glacier mass balance by geodesy is −0.69 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1 in 2000–2022, which is just deviating from the measured result (−0.66 m w.e.a−1), but the geodetic result in this paper can be enough to reflect the glacier changes (−0.65 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1) of the URB in 2000–2022. The future loss rate of area and volume will undergo a rapid and then decelerating process, with the fastest and slowest inflection points occurring around 2035 and 2070, respectively. High temperatures and large precipitation in summer accelerate glacier loss, and the corresponding lag period of glacier change to climate is about 2–3 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing the future changes in runoff is crucial for efficient water resources management and planning in arid regions with large river systems. This paper investigates the future runoffs of the headwaters of the Tarim River Basin under different emission scenarios by forcing the hydrological model SWAT-Glacier using six regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Results indicate that compared to the period of 1976~2005, temperatures are projected to increase by 1.22 ± 0.72 °C during 2036~2065 under RCP8.5 scenarios, with a larger increment in the south Tianshan mountains and a lower increment in the north Kunlun Mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase by 3.81 ± 14.72 mm and 20.53 ± 27.65 mm during 2036–2065 and 2066–2095, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario. The mountainous runoffs of the four headwaters that directly recharge the mainstream of the Tarim River demonstrate an overall increasing trend in the 21st century. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff is projected to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% (amounting to 7.84 × 108 m3 and 9.56 × 108 m3) in 2006–2035. Among them, the runoff of the Kaidu River, which is dominated by rainfall and snowmelt, is projected to present slightly decreasing trends of 3~8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For catchments located in the north Kunlun Mountains (e.g., the Yarkant and Hotan Rivers which are mix-recharged by glacier melt, snowmelt, and rainfall), the runoff will increase significantly, especially in summer due to increased glacier melt and precipitation. Seasonally, the Kaidu River shows a forward shift in peak flow. The summer streamflow in the Yarkant and Hotan rivers is expected to increase significantly, which poses challenges in flood risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier mass balance can be regarded as a major direct index of climate variations. In this paper, a geodetic method was used to evaluate the mass balance of Sawir glaciers based on topographic map DEM (Digital Elevation Model), SRTM 30 m DEM, ASTER 30 m DEM, and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar 10 m DEM between 1959–2021, in order to explore the response to climatic alterations. In the case of Muz Taw glacier, the first comprehensive dataset concerning mass-balance readings for the 2014–2021 period was provided based on the eight-year consecutive field measurements. The glaciological average mass balance reached –883.4 ± 130 mm a–1 during this period. The geodetic mass balance for all glaciers of the Sawir Mountain range was −0.43 ± 0.12 m w. e. a−1 between 1959 and 2000, and accelerated to −0.56 ± 0.13 m w. e. a−1 between 2000 and 2021. A comparison of field measurements and remote-sensing approaches for determining the Muz Taw glacier's mass balance between 2014–2021 proves the feasibility of the remote-sensing approach, which involves mass-balance monitoring based on DEMdata. In addition, our findings support the contention that air temperature is the dominant factor for accelerated glacier mass loss and surface elevation change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number and area of alpine lakes in Tien Shan (TS) are rapidly growing in response to a warming climate and retreating glaciers. This paper presents a comparative analysis of lake classification and changes by dividing alpine lakes (within a 10 km buffer of the glacier margins) into four types (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes, extraglacial lakes and non-glacial lakes), and subsequently determining the driving forces of change across the TS region from 1990 to 2015. The analysis utilized multiple satellite images and climatic data from gridded data sets and meteorological station observations. The results indicate that the total number and area of glacial lakes continuously increased during the study period, whereas non-glacial lakes intermittently expanded. Specifically, the total number and area of all glacial lakes (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes and extraglacial lakes) increased by 45.45% and 27.08%, respectively. Non-glacial lakes, in contrast, increased in quantity and area by 23.92% and 19.01%, respectively. Alpine lakes are closer to glaciers at high altitudes; in fact, some (e.g., proglacial lakes) are connected to glacier termini, and these show the highest expansion speed during the study period. The area of proglacial lakes expanded by 60.32%. Extraglacial lakes expanded by 21.06%. Supraglacial lakes, in marked contrast to the other types, decreased in area by 3.74%. Widespread rises in temperature and glacier wastage were the primary cause of the steady expansion of glacial lakes, particularly those linked to small- and medium-sized glaciers distributed in the Eastern TS where glacial lakes have rapidly increased. Both proglacial and extraglacial lakes expanded by 6.47%/a and 2%/a, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. While these proglacial and extraglacial lakes are located in largely glacierized areas, lakes in the Central TS exhibited the slowest expansion, increasing in area by 1.44%/a and 0.74%/a, respectively. Alterations in non-glacial lake areas were driven by changes in precipitation and varied spatially over the region. This study has substantial implications for the state of water resources under the complex regional changes in climate in the TS and can be used to develop useful water-resource management and planning strategies throughout Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier retreat is a common phenomenon in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with global warming during the past several decades, except for several mountains, such as the glaciers in the Karakoram and the western Kunlun Mountains. The dynamic nature of glaciers significantly influences the hydrologic, geologic, and ecological systems in the mountain regions. The sensitivity and dynamic response to climate change make glaciers excellent indicators of regional and global climate change, such as glacier melting and retreat with the rise of local air temperature. Long-term monitoring of glacier change is important to understand and assess past, current, and possible future climate environments. Some glacier surfaces are safe and accessible by foot, and are monitored using mass balance stakes and snow pits. Meanwhile, some glaciers with inaccessible termini may be surveyed using satellite remote images and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Those inaccessible glaciers are generally covered by debris in the southeast QTP, which is hardly accessible due to the wide distribution of crevasses and cliffs. In this paper, we used the UAV to monitor the dynamic features of mass balance and velocity of the debris-covered region of Baishui River Glacier No. 1 (BRG1) on the Yulong Snow Mountain (YSM), Southeast QTP. We obtained the Orthomosaic and DEM with a high resolution of 0.10 m on 20 May and 22 September 2018, respectively. The comparison showed that the elevation of the debris-covered region of the BRG1 decreased by 6.58 m ± 3.70 m on average, and the mean mass balance was −5.92 m w.e. ± 3.33 m w.e. during the summer, correspondingly. The mean displacement of debris-covered glacier surface was 18.30 m ± 6.27 m, that is, the mean daily velocity was 0.14 m/d ± 0.05 m/d during the summer. In addition, the UAV images not only revealed the different patterns of glacier melting and displacement but also captured the phenomena of mass loss due to ice avalanches at the glacier front and the development of large crevasses. This study provides a feasible method for understanding the dynamic features of global debris-covered glaciers which are inaccessible and unobservable by other means. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]