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The increasing global warming trend has resulted in the mass loss of most glaciers. The Urumqi Vally, located in the dry and cold zone of China, and its widely dispersed glaciers are significant to the regional ecological environment, oasis economic development, and industrial and agricultural production. This is representative of glaciers in Middle Asia and represents one of the world's longest observed time series of glaciers, beginning in 1959. The Urumqi Headwater Glacier No. 1 (UHG-1) has a dominant presence in the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). This paper supplies a comprehensive analysis of past studies and future modeling of glacier changes in the Urumqi Valley. It has received insufficient attention in the past, and the mass balance of UHG-1 was used to verify that the geodetic results and the OGGM model simulation results are convincing. The main conclusions are: The area of 48.68 ± 4.59 km2 delineated by 150 glaciers in 1958 decreased to 21.61 ± 0.27 km2 delineated by 108 glaciers in 2022, with a reduction of 0.47 ± 0.04 km2·a−1 (0.96% a−1 in 1958–2022). The glacier mass balance by geodesy is −0.69 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1 in 2000–2022, which is just deviating from the measured result (−0.66 m w.e.a−1), but the geodetic result in this paper can be enough to reflect the glacier changes (−0.65 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1) of the URB in 2000–2022. The future loss rate of area and volume will undergo a rapid and then decelerating process, with the fastest and slowest inflection points occurring around 2035 and 2070, respectively. High temperatures and large precipitation in summer accelerate glacier loss, and the corresponding lag period of glacier change to climate is about 2–3 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number and area of alpine lakes in Tien Shan (TS) are rapidly growing in response to a warming climate and retreating glaciers. This paper presents a comparative analysis of lake classification and changes by dividing alpine lakes (within a 10 km buffer of the glacier margins) into four types (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes, extraglacial lakes and non-glacial lakes), and subsequently determining the driving forces of change across the TS region from 1990 to 2015. The analysis utilized multiple satellite images and climatic data from gridded data sets and meteorological station observations. The results indicate that the total number and area of glacial lakes continuously increased during the study period, whereas non-glacial lakes intermittently expanded. Specifically, the total number and area of all glacial lakes (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes and extraglacial lakes) increased by 45.45% and 27.08%, respectively. Non-glacial lakes, in contrast, increased in quantity and area by 23.92% and 19.01%, respectively. Alpine lakes are closer to glaciers at high altitudes; in fact, some (e.g., proglacial lakes) are connected to glacier termini, and these show the highest expansion speed during the study period. The area of proglacial lakes expanded by 60.32%. Extraglacial lakes expanded by 21.06%. Supraglacial lakes, in marked contrast to the other types, decreased in area by 3.74%. Widespread rises in temperature and glacier wastage were the primary cause of the steady expansion of glacial lakes, particularly those linked to small- and medium-sized glaciers distributed in the Eastern TS where glacial lakes have rapidly increased. Both proglacial and extraglacial lakes expanded by 6.47%/a and 2%/a, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. While these proglacial and extraglacial lakes are located in largely glacierized areas, lakes in the Central TS exhibited the slowest expansion, increasing in area by 1.44%/a and 0.74%/a, respectively. Alterations in non-glacial lake areas were driven by changes in precipitation and varied spatially over the region. This study has substantial implications for the state of water resources under the complex regional changes in climate in the TS and can be used to develop useful water-resource management and planning strategies throughout Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]