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Past research on the process of extinguishing a fire typically used a traditional linear water jet falling point model and the results ignored external factors, such as environmental conditions and the status of the fire engine, even though the water jet falling point location prediction was often associated with these parameters and showed a nonlinear relationship. This paper constructed a BP (Back Propagation) neural network model. The fire gun nozzle characteristics were included as model inputs, and the water discharge point coordinates were the model outputs; thus, the model could precisely predict the water discharge point with small error and high precision to determine an accurate firing position and allow for the timely adjustment of the spray gun. To improve the slow convergence and local optimality problems of the BP neural network (BPNN), this paper further used a genetic algorithm to optimize the BPNN (GA-BPNN). The BPNN can be used to optimize the weights in the network to train them for global optimization. A genetic algorithm was introduced into the neural network approach, and the water jet landing prediction model was further improved. The simulation results showed that the prediction accuracy of the GA-BP model was better than that of the BPNN alone. The established model can accurately predict the location of the water jet, making the prediction results more useful for firefighters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several lifetime distributions have played an important role to fit survival data. However, for some of these models, the computation of maximum likelihood estimators is quite difficult due to presence of flat regions in the search space, among other factors. Several well-known derivative-based optimization tools are unsuitable for obtaining such estimates. To circumvent this problem, we introduce the AdequacyModel computational library version 2.0.0 for the R statistical environment with two major contributions: a general optimization technique based on the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method (with a minor modification of the original algorithm) and a set of statistical measures for assessment of the adequacy of the fitted model. This library is very useful for researchers in probability and statistics and has been cited in various papers in these areas. It serves as the basis for the Newdistns library (version 2.1) published in an impact journal in the area of computational statistics, see . It is also the basis of the Wrapped library (version 2.0), see . A third package making use of the AdequacyModel library can be found in . In addition, the proposed library has proved to be very useful for maximizing log-likelihood functions with complex search regions. The library provides a greater control of the optimization process by introducing a stop criterion based on a minimum number of iterations and the variance of a given proportion of optimal values. We emphasize that the new library can be used not only in statistics but in physics and mathematics as proved in several examples throughout the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recidivism prediction context, there is no consensus on which modeling strategy should be followed for obtaining an optimal prediction model. In previous papers, a range of statistical and machine learning techniques were benchmarked on recidivism data with a binary outcome. However, two important tree ensemble methods, namely gradient boosting and random forests were not extensively evaluated. In this paper, we further explore the modeling potential of these techniques in the binary outcome criminal prediction context. Additionally, we explore the predictive potential of classical statistical and machine learning methods for censored time-to-event data. A range of statistical manually specified statistical and (semi-)automatic machine learning models is fitted on Dutch recidivism data, both for the binary outcome case and censored outcome case. To enhance generalizability of results, the same models are applied to two historical American data sets, the North Carolina prison data. For all datasets, (semi-) automatic modeling in the binary case seems to provide no improvement over an appropriately manually specified traditional statistical model. There is however evidence of slightly improved performance of gradient boosting in survival data. Results on the reconviction data from two sources suggest that both statistical and machine learning should be tried out for obtaining an optimal model. Even if a flexible black-box model does not improve upon the predictions of a manually specified model, it can serve as a test whether important interactions are missing or other misspecification of the model are present and can thus provide more security in the modeling process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing and predicting the trend of price fluctuation has been receiving more and more attention, as price risk has become the focus of risk control research in heating oil futures market. A novel time series prediction model combined with the complex network method is put forward in the paper. First of all, this paper counts the cumulative time interval of different nodes in the network, and fits its growth trend with the Fourier model. Then a novel price fluctuation prediction model is established based on the effective information such as some topology properties extracted from the network. The results show that the Fourier model can predict the emergence time of new nodes in the next stage, and the established price fluctuation prediction model can infer the names of nodes in the prediction interval, so as to determine the forward-looking behavior of price evolution. Besides, liken to the NAR neural network, the prediction results obtained by the proposed method also show superiority, which has important theoretical value and academic significance for early warning and prediction of price behavior in the heating oil futures market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In business replenishment, discount offers of multi-item may either provide different discount schedules with a single discount type, or provide schedules with multiple discount types. The paper investigates the joint effects of multiple discount schemes on the decisions of multi-item joint replenishment. In this paper, a joint replenishment problem (JRP) model, considering three discount (all-unit discount, incremental discount, total volume discount) offers simultaneously, is constructed to determine the basic cycle time and joint replenishment frequencies of multi-item. To solve the proposed problem, a heuristic algorithm is proposed to find the optimal solutions and the corresponding total cost of the JRP model. Numerical experiment is performed to test the algorithm and the computational results of JRPs under different discount combinations show different significance in the replenishment cost reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an integrated hybrid optimization algorithm for training the radial basis function neural network (RBF NN). Training of neural networks is still a challenging exercise in machine learning domain. Traditional training algorithms in general suffer and trap in local optima and lead to premature convergence, which makes them ineffective when applied for datasets with diverse features. Training algorithms based on evolutionary computations are becoming popular due to their robust nature in overcoming the drawbacks of the traditional algorithms. Accordingly, this paper proposes a hybrid training procedure with differential search (DS) algorithm functionally integrated with the particle swarm optimization (PSO). To surmount the local trapping of the search procedure, a new population initialization scheme is proposed using Logistic chaotic sequence, which enhances the population diversity and aid the search capability. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RBF hybrid training algorithm, experimental analysis on publicly available 7 benchmark datasets are performed. Subsequently, experiments were conducted on a practical application case for wind speed prediction to expound the superiority of the proposed RBF training algorithm in terms of prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine Learning (ML) methods have been proposed in the academic literature as alternatives to statistical ones for time series forecasting. Yet, scant evidence is available about their relative performance in terms of accuracy and computational requirements. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate such performance across multiple forecasting horizons using a large subset of 1045 monthly time series used in the M3 Competition. After comparing the post-sample accuracy of popular ML methods with that of eight traditional statistical ones, we found that the former are dominated across both accuracy measures used and for all forecasting horizons examined. Moreover, we observed that their computational requirements are considerably greater than those of statistical methods. The paper discusses the results, explains why the accuracy of ML models is below that of statistical ones and proposes some possible ways forward. The empirical results found in our research stress the need for objective and unbiased ways to test the performance of forecasting methods that can be achieved through sizable and open competitions allowing meaningful comparisons and definite conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slope one is a popular recommendation algorithm due to its simplicity and high efficiency for sparse data. However, it often suffers from under-fitting since the global information of all relevant users/items are considered. In this paper, we propose a new scheme called enhanced slope one recommendation through local information embedding. First, we employ clustering algorithms to obtain the user clusters as well as item clusters to represent local information. Second, we predict ratings using the local information of users and items in the same cluster. The local information can detect strong localized associations shared within clusters. Third, we design different fusion approaches based on the local information embedding. In this way, both under-fitting and over-fitting problems are alleviated. Experiment results on the real datasets show that our approaches defeats slope one in terms of both mean absolute error and root mean square error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the development of computer science, deep learning is held as competent enough to solve the problem of inference and learning in high dimensional space. Therefore, it has received unprecedented attention from both the academia and the business community. Compared with CPU/GPU, FPGA has attracted much attention for its high-energy efficiency, short development cycle and reconfigurability in the aspect of deep learning algorithm. However, because of the limited research on OpenCL optimization on FPGA of deep learning algorithms, OpenCL tools and models applied to CPU/GPU cannot be directly used on FPGA. This makes it difficult for software programmers to use FPGA when implementing deep learning algorithms for a rewarding performance. To solve this problem, this paper proposed an OpenCL computational model based on FPGA template architecture to optimize the time-consuming convolution layer in deep learning. The comparison between the program applying the computational model and the corresponding optimization program provided by Xilinx indicates that the former is 8-40 times higher than the latter in terms of performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal hierarchies have been widely used during the past few years as they are capable to provide more accurate coherent forecasts at different planning horizons. However, they still display some limitations, being mainly subject to the forecasting methods used for generating the base forecasts and the particularities of the examined series. This paper deals with such limitations by considering three different strategies: (i) combining forecasts of multiple methods, (ii) applying bias adjustments and (iii) selectively implementing temporal hierarchies to avoid seasonal shrinkage. The proposed strategies can be applied either separately or simultaneously, being complements to the method considered for reconciling the base forecasts and completely independent from each other. Their effect is evaluated using the monthly series of the M and M3 competitions. The results are very promising, displaying lots of potential for improving the performance of temporal hierarchies, both in terms of accuracy and bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Filter or screening methods are often used as a preprocessing step for reducing the number of variables used by a learning algorithm in obtaining a classification or regression model. While there are many such filter methods, there is a need for an objective evaluation of these methods. Such an evaluation is needed to compare them with each other and also to answer whether they are at all useful, or a learning algorithm could do a better job without them. For this purpose, many popular screening methods are partnered in this paper with three regression learners and five classification learners and evaluated on ten real datasets to obtain accuracy criteria such as R-square and area under the ROC curve (AUC). The obtained results are compared through curve plots and comparison tables in order to find out whether screening methods help improve the performance of learning algorithms and how they fare with each other. Our findings revealed that the screening methods were useful in improving the prediction of the best learner on two regression and two classification datasets out of the ten datasets evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a new approach for learning node embeddings for weighted undirected networks. We perform a random walk on the network to extract the latent structural information and perform node embedding learning under a similarity-based framework. Unlike previous works, we apply a different criterion to capture the proximity information between nodes in a network, and use it for improved modeling of similarities between nodes. We show that the mean commute time (MCT) between two nodes, defined as the average time a random walker takes to reach a target node and return to the source, plays a crucial role in quantifying the actual degree of proximity between two nodes of the network. We then introduce a novel definition of a similarity matrix that is based on the pair-wise mean commute time captured, which enables us to adequately represent the connection of similar nodes. We utilize pseudoinverse of the Laplacian matrix of the graph for calculating such a proximity measure, capturing rich structural information out of the graph for learning more adequate node representations of a network. The results of different experiments on three real-world networks demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms existing related efforts in classification, clustering, visualization as well as link prediction tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While there have been many studies using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict process outcomes and device performance in semiconductor manufacturing, the extensively developed technology computer-aided design (TCAD) physical models should play a more significant role in conjunction with ML. While TCAD models have been effective in predicting the trends of experiments, a machine learning statistical model is more capable of predicting the anomalous effects that can be dependent on the chambers, machines, fabrication environment, and specific layouts. In this paper, we use an analytics-statistics mixed training (ASMT) approach using TCAD. Under this method, the TCAD models are incorporated into the machine learning training procedure. The mixed dataset with the experimental and TCAD results improved the prediction in terms of accuracy. With the application of ASMT to the BOSCH process, we show that the mean square error (MSE) can be effectively decreased when the analytics-statistics mixed training (ASMT) scheme is used instead of the classic neural network (NN) used in the baseline study. In this method, statistical induction and analytical deduction can be combined to increase the prediction accuracy of future intelligent semiconductor manufacturing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of computer network bandwidth, packet classification algorithms which are able to deal with large-scale rule sets are in urgent need. Among the existing algorithms, researches on packet classification algorithms based on hierarchical trie have become an important packet classification research branch because of their widely practical use. Although hierarchical trie is beneficial to save large storage space, it has several shortcomings such as the existence of backtracking and empty nodes. This paper proposes a new packet classification algorithm, Hierarchical Trie Algorithm Based on Expectation-Maximization Clustering (HTEMC). Firstly, this paper uses the formalization method to deal with the packet classification problem by means of mapping the rules and data packets into a two-dimensional space. Secondly, this paper uses expectation-maximization algorithm to cluster the rules based on their aggregate characteristics, and thereby diversified clusters are formed. Thirdly, this paper proposes a hierarchical trie based on the results of expectation-maximization clustering. Finally, this paper respectively conducts simulation experiments and real-environment experiments to compare the performances of our algorithm with other typical algorithms, and analyzes the results of the experiments. The hierarchical trie structure in our algorithm not only adopts trie path compression to eliminate backtracking, but also solves the problem of low efficiency of trie updates, which greatly improves the performance of the algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly 1% of the global population has Epilepsy. Forecasting epileptic seizures with an acceptable confidence level, could improve the disease treatment and thus the lifestyle of the people who suffer it. To do that the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal is usually studied through spectral power band filtering, but this paper proposes an alternative novel method of preprocessing the EEG signal based on supervised filters. Such filters have been employed in a machine learning algorithm, such as the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), to improve the prediction of seizures. The proposed solution extends with this novel approach an algorithm that was submitted to win the third prize of an international Data Science challenge promoted by Kaggle contest platform and the American Epilepsy Society, the Epilepsy Foundation, National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Mayo Clinic. A formal description of these preprocessing methods is presented and a detailed analysis in terms of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve and Area Under ROC curve is performed. The obtained results show statistical significant improvements when compared with the spectral power band filtering (PBF) typical baseline. A trend between performance and the dataset size is observed, suggesting that the supervised filters bring better information, compared to the conventional PBF filters, as the dataset grows in terms of monitored variables (sensors) and time length. The paper demonstrates a better accuracy in forecasting when new filters are employed and its main contribution is in the field of machine learning algorithms to develop more accurate predictive systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of the correct number of dimensions is a long-standing problem in psychometrics. Several methods have been proposed, such as parallel analysis (PA), Kaiser-Guttman’s eigenvalue-greater-than-one rule, multiple average partial procedure (MAP), the maximum-likelihood approaches that use fit indexes as BIC and EBIC and the less used and studied approach called very simple structure (VSS). In the present paper a new approach to estimate the number of dimensions will be introduced and compared via simulation to the traditional techniques pointed above. The approach proposed in the current paper is called exploratory graph analysis (EGA), since it is based on the graphical lasso with the regularization parameter specified using EBIC. The number of dimensions is verified using the walktrap, a random walk algorithm used to identify communities in networks. In total, 32,000 data sets were simulated to fit known factor structures, with the data sets varying across different criteria: number of factors (2 and 4), number of items (5 and 10), sample size (100, 500, 1000 and 5000) and correlation between factors (orthogonal, .20, .50 and .70), resulting in 64 different conditions. For each condition, 500 data sets were simulated using lavaan. The result shows that the EGA performs comparable to parallel analysis, EBIC, eBIC and to Kaiser-Guttman rule in a number of situations, especially when the number of factors was two. However, EGA was the only technique able to correctly estimate the number of dimensions in the four-factor structure when the correlation between factors were .7, showing an accuracy of 100% for a sample size of 5,000 observations. Finally, the EGA was used to estimate the number of factors in a real dataset, in order to compare its performance with the other six techniques tested in the simulation study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leveraging smart metering solutions to support energy efficiency on the individual household level poses novel research challenges in monitoring usage and providing accurate load forecasting. Forecasting electricity usage is an especially important component that can provide intelligence to smart meters. In this paper, we propose an enhanced approach for load forecasting at the household level. The impacts of residents’ daily activities and appliance usages on the power consumption of the entire household are incorporated to improve the accuracy of the forecasting model. The contributions of this paper are threefold: (1) we addressed short-term electricity load forecasting for 24 hours ahead, not on the aggregate but on the individual household level, which fits into the Residential Power Load Forecasting (RPLF) methods; (2) for the forecasting, we utilized a household specific dataset of behaviors that influence power consumption, which was derived using segmentation and sequence mining algorithms; and (3) an extensive load forecasting study using different forecasting algorithms enhanced by the household activity patterns was undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of ICT and Web technologies, a large an amount of information is becoming available and this is producing, in some instances, a condition of information overload. Under these conditions, it is difficult for a person to locate and access useful information for making decisions. To address this problem, there are information filtering systems, such as the personalized recommendation system (PRS) considered in this paper, that assist a person in identifying possible products or services of interest based on his/her preferences. Among available approaches, collaborative Filtering (CF) is one of the most widely used recommendation techniques. However, CF has some limitations, e.g., the relatively simple similarity calculation, cold start problem, etc. In this context, this paper presents a new regression model based on the support vector machine (SVM) classification and an improved PSO (IPSO) for the development of an electronic movie PRS. In its implementation, a SVM classification model is first established to obtain a preliminary movie recommendation list based on which a SVM regression model is applied to predict movies’ ratings. The proposed PRS not only considers the movie’s content information but also integrates the users’ demographic and behavioral information to better capture the users’ interests and preferences. The efficiency of the proposed method is verified by a series of experiments based on the MovieLens benchmark data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a method to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies, which are increasingly used for online transactions worldwide. Little research has been conducted on predicting fluctuations in the price and number of transactions of a variety of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the few methods proposed to predict fluctuation in currency prices are inefficient because they fail to take into account the differences in attributes between real currencies and cryptocurrencies. This paper analyzes user comments in online cryptocurrency communities to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies and the number of transactions. By focusing on three cryptocurrencies, each with a large market size and user base, this paper attempts to predict such fluctuations by using a simple and efficient method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important goal in researching the biology of olfaction is to link the perception of smells to the chemistry of odorants. In other words, why do some odorants smell like fruits and others like flowers? While the so-called stimulus-percept issue was resolved in the field of color vision some time ago, the relationship between the chemistry and psycho-biology of odors remains unclear up to the present day. Although a series of investigations have demonstrated that this relationship exists, the descriptive and explicative aspects of the proposed models that are currently in use require greater sophistication. One reason for this is that the algorithms of current models do not consistently consider the possibility that multiple chemical rules can describe a single quality despite the fact that this is the case in reality, whereby two very different molecules can evoke a similar odor. Moreover, the available datasets are often large and heterogeneous, thus rendering the generation of multiple rules without any use of a computational approach overly complex. We considered these two issues in the present paper. First, we built a new database containing 1689 odorants characterized by physicochemical properties and olfactory qualities. Second, we developed a computational method based on a subgroup discovery algorithm that discriminated perceptual qualities of smells on the basis of physicochemical properties. Third, we ran a series of experiments on 74 distinct olfactory qualities and showed that the generation and validation of rules linking chemistry to odor perception was possible. Taken together, our findings provide significant new insights into the relationship between stimulus and percept in olfaction. In addition, by automatically extracting new knowledge linking chemistry of odorants and psychology of smells, our results provide a new computational framework of analysis enabling scientists in the field to test original hypotheses using descriptive or predictive modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Orienteering problem (OP) is a routing problem, where the aim is to generate a path through set of nodes, which would maximize total score and would not exceed the budget. In this paper, we present an extension of classic OP—Orienteering Problem with Functional Profits (OPFP), where the score of a specific point depends on its characteristics, position in the route, and other points in the route. For solving OPFP, we developed an open-source framework for solving orienteering problems, which utilizes four core components of OP in its modular architecture. Fully-written in Go programming language our framework can be extended for solving different types of tasks with different algorithms; this was demonstrated by implementation of two popular algorithms for OP solving—Ant Colony Optimization and Recursive Greedy Algorithm. Computational efficiency of the framework was shown through solving four well-known OP types: classic Orienteering Problem (OP), Orienteering Problem with Compulsory Vertices (OPCV), Orienteering Problem with Time Windows (OPTW), and Time Dependent Orienteering Problem (TDOP) along with OPFP. Experiments were conducted on a large multi-source dataset for Saint Petersburg, Russia, containing data from Instagram, TripAdvisor, Foursquare and official touristic website. Our framework is able to construct touristic paths for different OP types within few seconds using dataset with thousands of points of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given a real-world graph, how can we measure relevance scores for ranking and link prediction? Random walk with restart (RWR) provides an excellent measure for this and has been applied to various applications such as friend recommendation, community detection, anomaly detection, etc. However, RWR suffers from two problems: 1) using the same restart probability for all the nodes limits the expressiveness of random walk, and 2) the restart probability needs to be manually chosen for each application without theoretical justification. We have two main contributions in this paper. First, we propose R W E R (RWER), a random walk based measure which improves the expressiveness of random walks by using a distinct restart probability for each node. The improved expressiveness leads to superior accuracy for ranking and link prediction. Second, we propose SR (pervised start for RWER), an algorithm for learning the restart probabilities of RWER from a given graph. SR eliminates the need to heuristically and manually select the restart parameter for RWER. Extensive experiments show that our proposed method provides the best performance for ranking and link prediction tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In general, the stock prices of the same industry have a similar trend, but those of different industries do not. When investing in stocks of different industries, one should select the optimal model from lots of trading models for each industry because any model may not be suitable for capturing the stock trends of all industries. However, the study has not been carried out at present. In this paper, firstly we select 424 S&P 500 index component stocks (SPICS) and 185 CSI 300 index component stocks (CSICS) as the research objects from 2010 to 2017, divide them into 9 industries such as finance and energy respectively. Secondly, we apply 12 widely used machine learning algorithms to generate stock trading signals in different industries and execute the back-testing based on the trading signals. Thirdly, we use a non-parametric statistical test to evaluate whether there are significant differences among the trading performance evaluation indicators (PEI) of different models in the same industry. Finally, we propose a series of rules to select the optimal models for stock investment of every industry. The analytical results on SPICS and CSICS show that we can find the optimal trading models for each industry based on the statistical tests and the rules. Most importantly, the PEI of the best algorithms can be significantly better than that of the benchmark index and “Buy and Hold” strategy. Therefore, the algorithms can be used for making profits from industry stock trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radio frequency identification (RFID) has recently experienced unprecedented development. Among many other areas, it has been widely applied in blood station management, automatic supermarket checkout, and logistics. In the application of RFID for large-scale passive tags, tag collision is inevitable owing to the non-cooperation mechanism among tags. Therefore, a tag anti-collision method is a key factor affecting the identification efficiency. In this paper, we propose a tag anti-collision method based on Aloha technology for RFID. It estimates the number of remaining tags using the secant iteration method. To achieve optimal identification efficiency, it adaptively and dynamically adjusts the lengths of the subsequent frames according to the principle that the length of a frame should be the same as the number of tags to be identified. For pseudo-solutions of tag population estimation while using secant iteration, we present an elimination method by two probing frames. The simulation results show that the estimation precision of our method can reach above 97%. Thus, it can meet the requirement of the tag anti-collision estimation accuracy. Its global throughput is obviously superior to the Q algorithm adopted by the current international standard, and it is close to the ideal system. It consequently outperforms existing schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a new method is proposed for prediction of ship roll motion based on extreme learning machine (ELM). To improve the prediction accuracy and avoid over or under fitting, two techniques are adopted to select the appropriate structure of ELM. First, the inputs of the ELM are selected from the roll motion time series using Lipschitz quotient method. Second, the number of hidden layer nodes is determined via ℓ1 regularized technique. Finally, the ℓ1 regularized ELM is solved by least angle regression (LAR) algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by ship roll motion prediction experiments based on the real measured ship roll motion time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a lightweight synthesis algorithm, named adaptive region segmentation based piecewise linear (ARSPL) algorithm, for reconstructing standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) signals from a 3-lead subset (I, II and V2). Such a lightweight algorithm is particularly suitable for healthcare mobile devices with limited resources for computing, communication and data storage. After detection of R-peaks, the ECGs are segmented by cardiac cycles. Each cycle is further divided into four regions according to different cardiac electrical activity stages. A personalized linear regression algorithm is then applied to these regions respectively for improved ECG synthesis. The proposed ARSPL method has been tested on 39 subjects randomly selected from the PTB diagnostic ECG database and achieved accurate synthesis of remaining leads with an average correlation coefficient of 0.947, an average root-mean-square error of 55.4μV, and an average runtime performance of 114ms. Overall, these results are significantly better than those of the common linear regression method, the back propagation (BP) neural network and the BP optimized using the genetic algorithm. We have also used the reconstructed ECG signals to evaluate the denivelation of ST segment, which is a potential symptom of intrinsic myocardial disease. After ARSPL, only 10.71% of the synthesized ECG cycles are with a ST-level synthesis error larger than 0.1mV, which is also better than those of the three above-mentioned methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an approach for improving the accuracy of memory-based collaborative filtering, based on the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method. Recommender systems are used to filter the huge amount of data available online based on user-defined preferences. Collaborative filtering (CF) is a commonly used recommendation approach that generates recommendations based on correlations among user preferences. Although several enhancements have increased the accuracy of memory-based CF through the development of improved similarity measures for finding successful neighbors, there has been less investigation into prediction score methods, in which rating/preference scores are assigned to items that have not yet been selected by a user. A TOPSIS solution for evaluating multiple alternatives based on more than one criterion is proposed as an alternative to prediction score methods for evaluating and ranking items based on the results from similar users. The recommendation accuracy of the proposed TOPSIS technique is evaluated by applying it to various common CF baseline methods, which are then used to analyze the MovieLens 100K and 1M benchmark datasets. The results show that CF based on the TOPSIS method is more accurate than baseline CF methods across a number of common evaluation metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research about unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarm has developed rapidly in recent years, especially the UAV swarm with sensors which is becoming common means of achieving situational awareness. Due to inadequate researches of the UAV swarm with complex control structure currently, we propose a patrolling task planning algorithm for the UAV swarm with double-layer centralized control structure under the uncertain and dynamic environment. The main objective of the UAV swarm is to collect environment information as much as possible. To summarized, the primary contributions of this paper are as follows. We first define the patrolling problem. After that, the patrolling problem is modeled as the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) problem. Building upon this, we put forward a myopic and scalable online task planning algorithm. The algorithm contains online heuristic function, sequential allocation method, and the mechanism of bottom-up information flow and top-down command flow, reducing the computation complexity effectively. Moreover, as the number of control layers increases, this algorithm guarantees the performance without increasing the computation complexity for the swarm leader. Finally, we empirically evaluate our algorithm in the specific scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting), significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For high-dimensional and massive data sets, traditional centralized gene expression programming (GEP) or improved algorithms lead to increased run-time and decreased prediction accuracy. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a new improved algorithm called distributed function mining for gene expression programming based on fast reduction (DFMGEP-FR). In DFMGEP-FR, fast attribution reduction in binary search algorithms (FAR-BSA) is proposed to quickly find the optimal attribution set, and the function consistency replacement algorithm is given to solve integration of the local function model. Thorough comparative experiments for DFMGEP-FR, centralized GEP and the parallel gene expression programming algorithm based on simulated annealing (parallel GEPSA) are included in this paper. For the waveform, mushroom, connect-4 and musk datasets, the comparative results show that the average time-consumption of DFMGEP-FR drops by 89.09%%, 88.85%, 85.79% and 93.06%, respectively, in contrast to centralized GEP and by 12.5%, 8.42%, 9.62% and 13.75%, respectively, compared with parallel GEPSA. Six well-studied UCI test data sets demonstrate the efficiency and capability of our proposed DFMGEP-FR algorithm for distributed function mining. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep learning techniques, e.g., Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), have been explosively applied to the research in the fields of information retrieval and natural language processing. However, few research efforts have addressed semantic indexing with deep learning. The use of semantic indexing in the biomedical literature has been limited for several reasons. For instance, MEDLINE citations contain a large number of semantic labels from automatically annotated MeSH terms, and for a great deal of the literature, only the information of the title and the abstract is readily available. In this paper, we propose a Boltzmann Convolutional neural network framework (B-CNN) for biomedicine semantic indexing. In our hybrid learning framework, the CNN can adaptively deal with features of documents that have sequence relationships, and can capture context information accordingly; the Deep Boltzmann Machine (DBM) merges global (the entity in each document) and local information through its training with undirected connections. Additionally, we have designed a hierarchical coarse to fine style indexing structure for learning and classifying documents, and a novel feature extension approach with word sequence embedding and Wikipedia categorization. Comparative experiments were conducted for semantic indexing of biomedical abstract documents; these experiments verified the encouraged performance of our B-CNN model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For railway operators, one of many important goals is to improve the utilization efficiency of electric multiple units (EMUs). When operators design EMU circulation plans, EMU type restrictions are critical factors when assigning EMUs to the correct depots for maintenance. However, existing studies only consider that EMUs are maintained at their home depots. However, targeting that problem, in this paper, an optimization model for the EMU circulation planning problem that allows depots to be selected for EMU maintenance is proposed. This model aims at optimizing the number of used EMUs and the number of EMU maintenance tasks and simultaneously incorporates other important constraints, including type restrictions, on EMU maintenance and night accommodation capacity at depots. In order to solve the model, a branch-and-price algorithm is also developed. A case study of a real-world high-speed railway was conducted to compare and analyze the effects of different maintenance location constraints. The results show that the number of EMUs used will decrease under the maintenance sharing scheme, the number of EMU maintenance tasks can be reduced, and the time occupied in EMU maintenance will be released. In addition, the scheme of maintenance resources sharing and increases to mileage limits can effectively decrease the number of EMU maintenance tasks significantly. The model and algorithm can be used as an effective quantitative analysis tool for railway operators' decision-making processes in the EMU circulation planning problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of real-world image distortions are multiply distortion rather than single distortion. To address this issue, in this paper we propose a quaternion wavelet transform (QWT) based full reference image quality assessment (FR IQA) metric for multiply distorted images, which jointly considers the local similarity of phase and magnitude of each subband via QWT. Firstly, the reference images and distorted images are decomposed by QWT, and then the similarity of amplitude and phase are calculated on each subband, thirdly the IQA metric is constructed by the weighting method considering human visual system (HVS) characteristics, and lastly the scores of each subband are averaged to get the quality score of test image. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the state of art in multiply distorted IQA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graph drawing, or the automatic layout of graphs, is a challenging problem. There are several search based methods for graph drawing which are based on optimizing an objective function which is formed from a weighted sum of multiple criteria. In this paper, we propose a new neighbourhood search method which uses a tabu search coupled with path relinking to optimize such objective functions for general graph layouts with undirected straight lines. To our knowledge, before our work, neither of these methods have been previously used in general multi-criteria graph drawing. Tabu search uses a memory list to speed up searching by avoiding previously tested solutions, while the path relinking method generates new solutions by exploring paths that connect high quality solutions. We use path relinking periodically within the tabu search procedure to speed up the identification of good solutions. We have evaluated our new method against the commonly used neighbourhood search optimization techniques: hill climbing and simulated annealing. Our evaluation examines the quality of the graph layout (objective function’s value) and the speed of layout in terms of the number of evaluated solutions required to draw a graph. We also examine the relative scalability of each method. Our experimental results were applied to both random graphs and a real-world dataset. We show that our method outperforms both hill climbing and simulated annealing by producing a better layout in a lower number of evaluated solutions. In addition, we demonstrate that our method has greater scalability as it can layout larger graphs than the state-of-the-art neighbourhood search methods. Finally, we show that similar results can be produced in a real world setting by testing our method against a standard public graph dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A wide variety of methods have been proposed in protein subnuclear localization to improve the prediction accuracy. However, one important trend of these means is to treat fusion representation by fusing multiple feature representations, of which, the fusion process takes a lot of time. In view of this, this paper novelly proposed a method by combining a new single feature representation and a new algorithm to obtain good recognition rate. Specifically, based on the position-specific scoring matrix (PSSM), we proposed a new expression, correlation position-specific scoring matrix (CoPSSM) as the protein feature representation. Based on the classic nonlinear dimension reduction algorithm, kernel linear discriminant analysis (KLDA), we added a new discriminant criterion and proposed a dichotomous greedy genetic algorithm (DGGA) to intelligently select its kernel bandwidth parameter. Two public datasets with Jackknife test and KNN classifier were used for the numerical experiments. The results showed that the overall success rate (OSR) with single representation CoPSSM is larger than that with many relevant representations. The OSR of the proposed method can reach as high as 87.444% and 90.3361% for these two datasets, respectively, outperforming many current methods. To show the generalization of the proposed algorithm, two extra standard datasets of protein subcellular were chosen to conduct the expending experiment, and the prediction accuracy by Jackknife test and Independent test is still considerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Acute Hypotensive Episode (AHE) is the sudden onset of a sustained period of low blood pressure and is one among the most critical conditions in Intensive Care Units (ICU). Without timely medical care, it can lead to an irreversible organ damage and death. By identifying patients at risk for AHE early, adequate medical intervention can save lives and improve patient outcomes. In this paper, we design a novel dual–boundary classification based approach for identifying patients at risk for AHE. Our algorithm uses only simple summary statistics of past Blood Pressure measurements and can be used in an online environment facilitating real–time updates and prediction. We perform extensive experiments with more than 4,500 patient records and demonstrate that our method outperforms the previous best approaches of AHE prediction. Our method can identify AHE patients two hours in advance of the onset, giving sufficient time for appropriate clinical intervention with nearly 80% sensitivity and at 95% specificity, thus having very few false positives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a face recognition algorithm based on a combination of vector quantization (VQ) and Markov stationary features (MSF). The VQ algorithm has been shown to be an effective method for generating features; it extracts a codevector histogram as a facial feature representation for face recognition. Still, the VQ histogram features are unable to convey spatial structural information, which to some extent limits their usefulness in discrimination. To alleviate this limitation of VQ histograms, we utilize Markov stationary features (MSF) to extend the VQ histogram-based features so as to add spatial structural information. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm by achieving recognition results superior to those of several state-of-the-art methods on publicly available face databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DNA-binding proteins play pivotal roles in alternative splicing, RNA editing, methylating and many other biological functions for both eukaryotic and prokaryotic proteomes. Predicting the functions of these proteins from primary amino acids sequences is becoming one of the major challenges in functional annotations of genomes. Traditional prediction methods often devote themselves to extracting physiochemical features from sequences but ignoring motif information and location information between motifs. Meanwhile, the small scale of data volumes and large noises in training data result in lower accuracy and reliability of predictions. In this paper, we propose a deep learning based method to identify DNA-binding proteins from primary sequences alone. It utilizes two stages of convolutional neutral network to detect the function domains of protein sequences, and the long short-term memory neural network to identify their long term dependencies, an binary cross entropy to evaluate the quality of the neural networks. When the proposed method is tested with a realistic DNA binding protein dataset, it achieves a prediction accuracy of 94.2% at the Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 0.961. Compared with the LibSVM on the arabidopsis and yeast datasets via independent tests, the accuracy raises by 9% and 4% respectively. Comparative experiments using different feature extraction methods show that our model performs similar accuracy with the best of others, but its values of sensitivity, specificity and AUC increase by 27.83%, 1.31% and 16.21% respectively. Those results suggest that our method is a promising tool for identifying DNA-binding proteins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broken water pumps continue to impede efforts to deliver clean and economically-viable water to the global poor. The literature has demonstrated that customers’ health benefits and willingness to pay for clean water are best realized when clean water infrastructure performs extremely well (>99% uptime). In this paper, we used sensor data from 42 Afridev-brand handpumps observed for 14 months in western Kenya to demonstrate how sensors and supervised ensemble machine learning could be used to increase total fleet uptime from a best-practices baseline of about 70% to >99%. We accomplish this increase in uptime by forecasting pump failures and identifying existing failures very quickly. Comparing the costs of operating the pump per functional year over a lifetime of 10 years, we estimate that implementing this algorithm would save 7% on the levelized cost of water relative to a sensor-less scheduled maintenance program. Combined with a rigorous system for dispatching maintenance personnel, implementing this algorithm in a real-world program could significantly improve health outcomes and customers’ willingness to pay for water services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we propose a new data mining algorithm, by which one can both capture the non-linearity in data and also find the best subset model. To produce an enhanced subset of the original variables, a preferred selection method should have the potential of adding a supplementary level of regression analysis that would capture complex relationships in the data via mathematical transformation of the predictors and exploration of synergistic effects of combined variables. The method that we present here has the potential to produce an optimal subset of variables, rendering the overall process of model selection more efficient. This algorithm introduces interpretable parameters by transforming the original inputs and also a faithful fit to the data. The core objective of this paper is to introduce a new estimation technique for the classical least square regression framework. This new automatic variable transformation and model selection method could offer an optimal and stable model that minimizes the mean square error and variability, while combining all possible subset selection methodology with the inclusion variable transformations and interactions. Moreover, this method controls multicollinearity, leading to an optimal set of explanatory variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the use of the Aimsun microsimulation program to simulate vehicle violating behaviors and observe their impact on road traffic crash risk. Plugins for violations of speeding, slow driving, and abrupt stopping were developed using Aimsun’s API and SDK module. A safety analysis plugin for investigating probability of rear-end collisions was developed, and a method for analyzing collision risk is proposed. A Fuzzy C-mean Clustering algorithm was developed to identify high risk states in different road segments over time. Results of a simulation experiment based on the G15 Expressway in Shanghai showed that abrupt stopping had the greatest impact on increasing collision risk, and the impact of violations increased with traffic volume. The methodology allows for the evaluation and monitoring of risks, alerting of road hazards, and identification of hotspots, and could be applied to the operations of existing facilities or planning of future ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, China is facing a very serious issue of Air Pollution due to its dreadful impact on the human health as well as the environment. The urban cities in China are the most affected due to their rapid industrial and economic growth. Therefore, it is of extreme importance to come up with new, better and more reliable forecasting models to accurately predict the air quality. This paper selected Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang as three cities from the Jingjinji Region for the study to come up with a new model of collaborative forecasting using Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Urban Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction in China. The present study is aimed to improve the forecasting results by minimizing the prediction error of present machine learning algorithms by taking into account multiple city multi-dimensional air quality information and weather conditions as input. The results show that there is a decrease in MAPE in case of multiple city multi-dimensional regression when there is a strong interaction and correlation of the air quality characteristic attributes with AQI. Also, the geographical location is found to play a significant role in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang AQI prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Delay represents a significant phenomenon in the dynamics of many human-related systems—including biological ones. It has i.a. a decisive impact on system stability, and the study of this influence is often mathematically demanding. This paper presents a computationally simple numerical gridding algorithm for the determination of stability margin delay values in multiple-delay linear systems. The characteristic quasi-polynomial—the roots of which decide about stability—is subjected to iterative discretization by means of pre-warped bilinear transformation. Then, a linear and a quadratic interpolation are applied to obtain the associated characteristic polynomial with integer powers. The roots of the associated characteristic polynomial are closely related to the estimation of roots of the original characteristic quasi-polynomial which agrees with the system′s eigenvalues. Since the stability border is crossed by the leading one, the switching root locus is enhanced using the Regula Falsi interpolation method. Our methodology is implemented on—and verified by—a numerical bio-cybernetic example of the stabilization of a human-being′s movement on a controlled swaying bow. The advantage of the proposed novel algorithm lies in the possibility of the rapid computation of polynomial zeros by means of standard programs for technical computing; in the low level of mathematical knowledge required; and, in the sufficiently high precision of the roots loci estimation. The relationship to the direct search QuasiPolynomial (mapping) Rootfinder algorithm and computational complexity are discussed as well. This algorithm is also applicable for systems with non-commensurate delays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the appetite for the investment and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in RFID companies is growing rapidly. Although the huge number of papers have addressed the topic of business valuation models based on statistical methods or neural network methods, only a few are dedicated to constructing a general framework for business valuation that improves the performance with network graph (NG) and the corresponding community mining (CM) method. In this study, an NG based business valuation model is proposed, where real options approach (ROA) integrating CM method is designed to predict the company’s net profit as well as estimate the company value. Three improvements are made in the proposed valuation model: Firstly, our model figures out the credibility of the node belonging to each community and clusters the network according to the evolutionary Bayesian method. Secondly, the improved bacterial foraging optimization algorithm (IBFOA) is adopted to calculate the optimized Bayesian posterior probability function. Finally, in IBFOA, bi-objective method is used to assess the accuracy of prediction, and these two objectives are combined into one objective function using a new Pareto boundary method. The proposed method returns lower forecasting error than 10 well-known forecasting models on 3 different time interval valuing tasks for the real-life simulation of RFID companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two, partially interwoven, hot topics in the analysis and statistical modeling of neural data, are the development of efficient and informative representations of the time series derived from multiple neural recordings, and the extraction of information about the connectivity structure of the underlying neural network from the recorded neural activities. In the present paper we show that state-space clustering can provide an easy and effective option for reducing the dimensionality of multiple neural time series, that it can improve inference of synaptic couplings from neural activities, and that it can also allow the construction of a compact representation of the multi-dimensional dynamics, that easily lends itself to complexity measures. We apply a variant of the ‘mean-shift’ algorithm to perform state-space clustering, and validate it on an Hopfield network in the glassy phase, in which metastable states are largely uncorrelated from memories embedded in the synaptic matrix. In this context, we show that the neural states identified as clusters’ centroids offer a parsimonious parametrization of the synaptic matrix, which allows a significant improvement in inferring the synaptic couplings from the neural activities. Moving to the more realistic case of a multi-modular spiking network, with spike-frequency adaptation inducing history-dependent effects, we propose a procedure inspired by Boltzmann learning, but extending its domain of application, to learn inter-module synaptic couplings so that the spiking network reproduces a prescribed pattern of spatial correlations; we then illustrate, in the spiking network, how clustering is effective in extracting relevant features of the network’s state-space landscape. Finally, we show that the knowledge of the cluster structure allows casting the multi-dimensional neural dynamics in the form of a symbolic dynamics of transitions between clusters; as an illustration of the potential of such reduction, we define and analyze a measure of complexity of the neural time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Music emotion recognition (MER) field rapidly expanded in the last decade. Many new methods and new audio features are developed to improve the performance of MER algorithms. However, it is very difficult to compare the performance of the new methods because of the data representation diversity and scarcity of publicly available data. In this paper, we address these problems by creating a data set and a benchmark for MER. The data set that we release, a MediaEval Database for Emotional Analysis in Music (DEAM), is the largest available data set of dynamic annotations (valence and arousal annotations for 1,802 songs and song excerpts licensed under Creative Commons with 2Hz time resolution). Using DEAM, we organized the ‘Emotion in Music’ task at MediaEval Multimedia Evaluation Campaign from 2013 to 2015. The benchmark attracted, in total, 21 active teams to participate in the challenge. We analyze the results of the benchmark: the winning algorithms and feature-sets. We also describe the design of the benchmark, the evaluation procedures and the data cleaning and transformations that we suggest. The results from the benchmark suggest that the recurrent neural network based approaches combined with large feature-sets work best for dynamic MER. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A ship power equipments’ fault monitoring signal usually provides few samples and the data’s feature is non-linear in practical situation. This paper adopts the method of the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) to deal with the problem of fault pattern identification in the case of small sample data. Meanwhile, in order to avoid involving a local extremum and poor convergence precision which are induced by optimizing the kernel function parameter and penalty factor of LSSVM, an improved Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm is proposed for the purpose of parameter optimization. Based on the dynamic adaptive strategy, the newly proposed algorithm improves the recognition probability and the searching step length, which can effectively solve the problems of slow searching speed and low calculation accuracy of the CS algorithm. A benchmark example demonstrates that the CS-LSSVM algorithm can accurately and effectively identify the fault pattern types of ship power equipments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of memory performance (remembered or forgotten) has various potential applications not only for knowledge learning but also for disease diagnosis. Recently, subsequent memory effects (SMEs)—the statistical differences in electroencephalography (EEG) signals before or during learning between subsequently remembered and forgotten events—have been found. This finding indicates that EEG signals convey the information relevant to memory performance. In this paper, based on SMEs we propose a computational approach to predict memory performance of an event from EEG signals. We devise a convolutional neural network for EEG, called ConvEEGNN, to predict subsequently remembered and forgotten events from EEG recorded during memory process. With the ConvEEGNN, prediction of memory performance can be achieved by integrating two main stages: feature extraction and classification. To verify the proposed approach, we employ an auditory memory task to collect EEG signals from scalp electrodes. For ConvEEGNN, the average prediction accuracy was 72.07% by using EEG data from pre-stimulus and during-stimulus periods, outperforming other approaches. It was observed that signals from pre-stimulus period and those from during-stimulus period had comparable contributions to memory performance. Furthermore, the connection weights of ConvEEGNN network can reveal prominent channels, which are consistent with the distribution of SME studied previously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]