Search

Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change impact appears as a decreasing or increasing monotonic trend in hydro-meteorology time series records due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions causing to global warming and climate change impacts. On the other hand, there may be abrupt changes in the form of jumps in these series due to natural and engineering activities. Although trend identification methods are rather common in the literature, jump determination conventional methodologies are rather rare and their applications present some restrictive asumptions like the serial independence and normal (Gaussian) probability distribution function (PDF). The methodology presented in this paper is away from each of such assumptions and it depicts the minimum number of upcrossing along horizontal truncation levels within the time series variation domain. The applications of the methodology are given for annual Danube River discharge records, Romania; New Jersey rainfall and temperature records, USA; monthly rainfall records and Van Lake level fluctuations, Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]