Search

Background: Information about airborne pollen concentrations is required by a range of end users, particularly from the health sector who use both observations and forecasts to diagnose and treat allergic patients. Manual methods are the standard for such measurements but, despite the range of pollen taxa that can be identified, these techniques suffer from a range of drawbacks. This includes being available at low temporal resolution (usually daily averages) and with a delay (usually 3–9 days from the measurement). Recent technological developments have made possible automatic pollen measurements, which are available at high temporal resolution and in real time, although currently only scattered in a few locations across Europe. Materials & Methods: To promote the development of an extensive network across Europe and to ensure that this network will respond to end user needs, a stakeholder workshop was organised under the auspices of the EUMETNET AutoPollen Programme. Participants discussed requirements for the groups they represented, ranging from the need for information at various spatial scales, at high temporal resolution, and for targeted services to be developed. Results: The provision of real‐time information is likely to lead to a notable decrease in the direct and indirect health costs associated with allergy in Europe, currently estimated between €50–150 billion/year.1 Discussion & Conclusion: A European measurement network to meet end user requirements would thus more than pay for itself in terms of potential annual savings and provide significant impetus to research across a range of disciplines from climate science and public health to agriculture and environmental management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper makes an argument for a geography of girlhood, located at the intersection of historical geographies of globalisation and empire on the one hand, and feminist interventions in the geography of childhood and youth on the other. A focus on girlhood, I argue, opens up a debate on the discipline's own implication in a debate on climate science, moral hierarchies of civilisation and reproductive health at which intersection the category of 'girl' was materialised in the 19th century. This focus extends and historicises the argument made by scholars like Nicola Ansel that geographies of childhood speak not only to intimate scales of experience ‐ such as the home and neighbourhood—but instead suggest the ways in which everyday life is implicated in the scale of the global and the geopolitical. Drawing on an inter‐disciplinary scholarship, the paper argues that debates on gender and maturity—converging on the figure of the 'girl'—shaped raced and classed imaginaries of progress in the 19th and 20th centuries. Through this, the paper demonstrates that 'girlhood' is at the heart of historical geographies of urban planning, social care, and health, as well as indexing the continuities in the transition from a colonial discourse of civilisation to a mid‐20th century concern with development. Finally, the paper asks how to write about girls through an archive that is almost obsessively fixated on them as subjects of education and reform, even whilst they rarely appear in it as speaking subjects. I argue that both an emergent focus on non‐textual objects as sources, as well as the use of ephemeral material—including notes, creative writing exercises from the classroom, school diaries etc.—alongside the official archive might open the scholarship up to a multi‐scalar analysis of girlhood as imbricated in larger global and national discursive and material practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper details the creation of a tropical cyclone (TC) size dataset using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I dataset for landfalling TCs along the United States coastline from 1948 to 2022. The radius of the outermost closed isobar (ROCI) is used as the size parameter. The dataset comprises landfall ROCI for 220 TCs. Storms are split into three zones (Texas–Alabama, Florida and Georgia–Maine) to determine if TC size varies geographically. Results showed a significant difference in landfall size, with Florida storms larger on average than the Texas–Alabama storms. Additionally, TC size increased with increasing intensity from tropical storm to Category 3, and storms tended to be larger later in the hurricane season, but there was no significant trend in landfall size over the 75‐year period. ROCI exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with longitude and wind speed and a negative correlation with the outermost closed isobar's pressure. The dataset's creation is an example of how reanalysis datasets can be used to develop a TC size climatology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current soil‐ and land degradation seriously challenge our societies; it contributes to climate change, loss of biodiversity and loss of agricultural productions. Yet, soils are also seen as a major part of the solution, if maintained or restored to provide ecosystem services. Climate‐smart sustainable management of soils can provide options for soil health maintenance and restoration. In the European Union, the resource management and sustainability challenge are addressed in the Green Deal that, among other goals, aspires towards a healthy climate‐resilient agricultural sector that will produce sufficient products without damaging ecosystems and contribute to better biodiversity and mitigate climate change. The European Joint Programme (EJP) SOIL was set up to contribute to these goals by developing knowledge, tools and an integrated research community to foster climate‐smart sustainable agricultural soil management that provides a diversity of ecosystem service, such as adapting to and mitigating climate change, allowing sustainable food production, and sustaining soil biodiversity. This paper provides an overview of the potential of climate‐smart sustainable soil management research to the targets of the Green Deal that are related to soils most directly. The EJP SOIL EU‐wide consultation (interviews and questionnaires) and literature analysis (national and international reports and papers) done in the first year (2020–2021) generated a wealth of data. This data showed that there are specific manners to do research that are essential for it to be effective and efficient and that can actively contribute to the Green Deal targets. We concluded that research needs to be: (i) interdisciplinary, (ii) long‐term, (iii) multi‐scaled, from plot to landscape, (iv) evaluating trade‐offs of selected management options for ecosystem services and (v) co‐constructed with key stakeholders. Research on climate‐smart sustainable soil management should be developed (1) on plot scale when mobilizing soil processes and on landscape scale when addressing sediment and water connectivity and biodiversity management; and (2) address the enabling conditions through good governance, social acceptance and viable economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document provides a summary of a hackathon event organized by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Aon, a reinsurance company, to explore the social impacts of climate change. The hackathon focused on developing consistent scenarios for future climate risk, understanding uncertainties in European windstorm modeling, and providing real-time context for extreme weather events. The teams developed tools and methodologies to assess the severity and potential impact of extreme events on insured losses. The collaboration between the MoJ, Aon, and participants from various institutions aims to further research and develop papers and grant proposals in these areas. [Extracted from the article]

Ships' logbooks are now an accepted part of the repertoire of data sources in climate change studies. This article examines some of the particular issues surrounding logbooks from the Arctic region in the so-called pre-instrumental period. Attention is given to the means by which narrative descriptions of wind, weather and sea ice cover can be reliably expressed in index form. Consideration is also given to the various means by which these data can be most effectively managed for scientific analysis as in most cases they were not recorded for such purposes. Many such logbooks remain yet to be digitized and the methods described here can be applied with equal confidence in future through such undertakings using English language documents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The dedication of the international anaesthetic community to reducing the environmental impact of healthcare is important and to be celebrated. When this is underpinned by robust science, it has the potential to make a real difference. However, volatile anaesthetic agents have been widely promoted in the medical literature as damaging to the climate, leading to a drive to remove them from clinical practice. This is based on notional 'CO2‐equivalent' values created using the simple emission metric known as the global warming potential. Here, we assert that when proper consideration is given to the science of climate change, volatile anaesthetic gas emissions cannot be simply equated to real carbon dioxide emissions, and that their climate impact is vanishingly small. This paper gives anaesthetists a framework to make informed choices founded on climate science and calls for attention to be refocused on the urgent need to reduce the real carbon dioxide emissions associated with healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While UN reports indicate increasingly dire consequences of climate change, the political will to initiate rapid decarbonization is lacking, as nations fail to meet targets set by international agreements. Given these developments, this paper investigates the role of climate dread and fatalism in the discourse about climate science. We examine the treatment of fatalism in major theories of the policy process, noting that climate policy represents a relatively novel situation—in which a problem once deemed solvable is being redefined as an issue outside the realm of human control. Using automated content analysis, we examine how journalists and interest groups framed reports issued by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from 2013 to 2022. We find limited changes in the tone and content of news stories and environmental groups' statements, and we suggest that these findings reflect under‐reaction of the political system to new information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an application of quantile generalized additive models (QGAMs) to study spatially compounding climate extremes, namely extremes that occur (near‐) simultaneously in geographically remote regions. We take as an example wintertime cold spells in North America and co‐occurring wet or windy extremes in Western Europe, which we collectively term Pan‐Atlantic compound extremes. QGAMS are largely novel in climate science applications and present a number of key advantages over conventional statistical models of weather extremes. Specifically, they remove the need for a direct identification and parametrization of the extremes themselves, since they model all quantiles of the distributions of interest. They thus make use of all information available, and not only of a small number of extreme values. Moreover, they do not require any a priori knowledge of the functional relationship between the predictors and the dependent variable. Here, we use QGAMs to both characterize the co‐occurrence statistics and investigate the role of possible dynamical drivers of the Pan‐Atlantic compound extremes. We find that cold spells in North America are a useful predictor of subsequent wet or windy extremes in Western Europe, and that QGAMs can predict those extremes more accurately than conventional peak‐over‐threshold models. Plain Language Summary: In this paper we propose a new data‐driven method to study climate extremes occurring simultaneously in multiple, possibly remote, locations. Such extremes can pose a greater threat to human societies than single, isolated extremes, as their effects may exacerbate each other and lead to correlated losses. The method we suggest requires fewer assumptions than conventional extreme value statistical techniques, and can help us to identify previously unknown relationships between the extremes themselves and their possible drivers. We exemplify its use by studying the co‐occurrence of periods of unusually cold weather in North America and subsequent uncommonly strong wind and abundant precipitation in Western Europe. We find that the new method has better predictive power for the European extremes than conventional statistical approaches. Furthermore, we confirm the results of previous studies suggesting an association between the wintertime extremes in North America and Western Europe. Key Points: Quantile general additive models (QGAMs) can model the relationship between compound climate extremes flexibly and robustlyNorth American cold spells show some predictive skill for wet or windy extremes in Western Europe, even when accounting for confoundersGiven relevant atmospheric predictors, QGAMs can predict these extremes more accurately than peak‐over‐threshold models in most regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bergmann's rule generally predicts larger animal body sizes with colder climates. We tested whether Bergmann's rule at the interspecific level applies to moths (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) along an extended elevational gradient in the Ecuadorian Andes. Moths were sampled at 22 sites in the province Zamora-Chinchipe in southern Ecuador in forest habitats ranging from 1040 m to 2677 m above sea level. Wingspans of 2282 male geometrid moths representing 953 species were measured and analysed at the level of the family Geometridae, as well as for the subfamily Ennominae with the tribes Boarmiini and Ourapterygini, and the subfamily Larentiinae with the genera Eois, Eupithecia and Psaliodes. Bergmann's rule was not supported since the average wingspan of geometrid moths was negatively correlated with altitude ( r = −0.59, P < 0.005). The relationship between body size and altitude in Geometridae appears to be spurious because species of the subfamily Larentiinae are significantly smaller than species of the subfamily Ennominae and simultaneously increase in their proportion along the gradient. A significant decrease of wingspan was also found in the ennomine tribe Ourapterygini, but no consistent body size patterns were found in the other six taxa studied. In most taxa, body size variation increases with altitude, suggesting that factors acting to constrain body size might be weaker at high elevations. The results are in accordance with previous studies that could not detect consistent body size patterns in insects at the interspecific level along climatic gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broad-scale spatial patterns of species richness are very strongly correlated with climatic variables. If there is a causal link, i.e. if climate directly or indirectly determines patterns of richness, then when the climatic variables change, richness should change in the manner that spatial correlations between richness and climate would predict. The present study tests this prediction using seasonal changes in climatic variables and bird richness. We used a grid of equal area quadrats (37 000 km2) covering North and Central America as far south as Nicaragua. Summer and winter bird distribution data were drawn from monographs and field guides. Climatic data came from published sources. We also used remotely sensed NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index — a measure of greenness). Bird species richness changes temporally (between summer and winter) in a manner that is close to, but statistically distinguishable from, the change one would predict from models relating the spatial variation in richness at a single time to climatic variables. If one further takes into account the seasonal changes in NDVI and within-season variability of temperature and precipitation, then winter and summer richness follow congruent, statistically indistinguishable patterns. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation cover directly or indirectly influence patterns of bird species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the US and the Netherlands have been on opposing sides of the spectrum regarding climate litigation. Dutch courts, in several revolutionary climate cases, have been an arena of societal change, whilst climate claims in the US have been largely unsuccessful. In a way this difference seems strange, because the US judiciary has the power of constitutional review, whilst the Dutch judiciary does not. Against that background, this paper extensively compares the doctrines of judicial competence regarding political questions in both jurisdictions. As a comparative framework, this paper uses three judicial phases, namely: the institutional phase, the substantial phase, and the remedial phase. Climate litigation reveals that the Dutch doctrine of judicial competence is focused on the substantial and remedial phases, which has allowed it more freedom in reviewing climate litigation. On the other hand, climate litigation reveals that the US doctrine of judicial competence is focused on a strict institutional phase, dominated by the Political Question Doctrine (PQD). The main contribution of this paper to the constitutional debate is that climate litigation reveals fundamental differences in doctrines of judicial competence. This is not only an important takeaway for future climate litigation, but also, in terms of the Radbruch formula, for other potential gaps between the executive and justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present daily mean wind speed as a new variable in the publicly accessible E‐OBS gridded datasets. Each of the variables in the E‐OBS dataset is provided at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and 0.25° × 0.25°. The variable "daily mean wind speed" starts from 1980 and is updated every month. The main method that we apply is the use of adaptive covariate selection to model the monthly mean wind speed as a function of covariates, like altitude, distance to coast and surface roughness. Then, we use Gaussian process regression to interpolate the daily anomalies from the station locations to the grid locations. In addition, we develop ensemble dispersion improvement auto‐tune (EDIT) to improve the reliability of the local ensemble spread. In order to communicate the methodological uncertainty in the resulting dataset, the E‐OBS wind speed grid is provided as a 20‐member ensemble of random realizations. As part of a preliminary analysis, we investigate the hypothesized wind speed stilling effect in recent decades. Indeed, we do find a small yet significant wind speed stilling effect in the E‐OBS dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2021, Bangladesh reached 97% nation‐wide electricity access. With over 4.1 million solar home systems (SHS) installed by 60 Partner Organisations (POs) providing renewable electricity to more than 22 million rural people, SHS and microfinance have been instrumental in bridging and achieving the country's universal access goal. However, a huge gap remains in achieving the country's 100% use of renewable energy by 2050, with only 3.1% of current electricity generation accounted for by renewables. While at centralised level, governmental institutions are struggling to move past the legacy mandate of grid extension to an energy transformation paradigm at decentralised levels, rural Bangladeshi villages are already leading this transformation. Today, 100 solar peer‐to‐peer microgrids, built following the swarm electrification pathway, allow end‐users to run appliances, charge vehicles, and to trade renewable electricity for income. In this paper, we describe the organisational model of the partnership between Grameen Shakti, Bangladesh's largest PO, and climate‐tech start‐up ME SOLshare, the swarm electrification implementer. We assess, using data from the peer‐to‐peer grids, their socio‐economic and environmental impact, and their contribution to the SDG 2030 Agenda. Finally, we give an outlook towards the potential of achieving sustainable energy development through a scale‐up of the swarm electrification approach, including under a scenario of 100% national grid electrification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broadband (spectrally‐integrated) radiation calculations are dominated by the expense of spectral integration, and many applications require fast parameterizations for computing radiative flux. Here we describe a novel approach using a linear weighted sum of monochromatic calculations at a small set of optimally‐chosen frequencies. The empirically‐optimized quadrature method is used to compute atmospheric boundary fluxes, net flux profiles throughout the atmosphere, heating rate profiles, and top‐of‐the‐atmosphere forcing by CO2, in the longwave for clear skies. We evaluate the method against two modern correlated k‐distribution models and find that we can achieve comparable errors with 32 spectral points. We also examine the effect of minimizing different cost functions, and find that in order to accurately represent heating rates and CO2 forcing, these quantities must be included in the cost function. Plain Language Summary: Quantifying the way radiation flows through the atmosphere is computationally expensive, and most applications require fast approximation. In this paper, we develop an empirically‐optimized quadrature method that can compute quantities of interest in climate science and weather prediction such as radiative flux throughout the atmosphere, heating rates, and forcing by carbon dioxide. The method uses a simple optimization algorithm, combined with a linear model, to achieve accuracy and computational cost of similar order of magnitude to the modern correlated k‐distribution models. Depending on the focus of the application, the algorithm can easily be adapted to prioritize desired quantities. Key Points: Spectrally integrated radiative quantities can be estimated from a small weighted set of monochromatic calculationsTradeoffs between computational cost and accuracy are commensurate with correlated k‐distribution modelsOptimization priorities can be tailored to a specific applications [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the highlights of the Conference on Intelligent Data Understanding held at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, California on October 5-6, 2010. Topics included the implementation of the methods attained in data mining and machine learning on issues dealing with earth sciences, space sciences and systems health management. Problems dealing with changes in the climate and environment, astronomical data flux and safety in aviation were also tackled.

There are two key questions consistently raised by children and youth since the onset of the school strikes for climate in 2018 in the Global North: Why study for a future, which may not be there? Why spend a lot of effort to become educated, when our governments are not listening to the educated? (conf. fridaysforfuture.org, n.d). While the same questions are shared by young climate activists from the Global South, there are other interrelated economic realities that echo the disappointment, anger, disillusionment, desperation, and frustration driving those utterances in their socio‐political contexts. Comparative insights from so‐called 'developing' countries disclose that institutionalized schooling, commonly confused with education, manipulates the aspirations of younger generations and their wider societies. Contemporary global schooling is one of the key propellers of global economic agendas geared towards producing human capital that is 'employable' in the future job market. The paradox of a global education agenda geared towards generating human capital employable on a job market is that most of those jobs (if at all they will be there) continue serving the very economic system that is threatening the right to life, health, culture (especially for indigenous communities) and the best interests of future generations on this planet. As young climate activists from various countries collectively argue within the framework of the United Nations Convention of the Rights of the Child, major economies are failing to protect the basic human rights of children and future generations. I suggest that the various interrelated crises evident through the key questions raised by young climate activists must be considered as part of a North–South continuum. In this paper, I reflect upon these interrelated crises by developing a decolonial childist approach to education—understood as an intergenerational relationship, implying an effort on part of present adults becoming good ancestors of the future, in the present. Such efforts require larger structural shifts which I consider by means of the four strategies I discuss building upon previous co‐reflections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observation facts of trend and variability are estimated for a century‐long timescale, as well as some possible attributions affecting temperature extremes over Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei region. In this paper, the new constructed daily maximum and minimum temperature series during the last 100 years in situ stations of Beijing, Tianjin and Baoding city are used, and two 30‐year baseline climatology of 1961–1990 and 1980–2010 are both used in calculating extreme temperature events. The results indicate that there are long‐lasting, frequent and serious extreme warming over Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei region, especially for extreme low temperature, with larger declining trends (at 5% significance) from 1981 to 2010 baseline than those from 1961 to 1990 baseline. And from a statistical perspective, El Niño decay years and surface sea temperature (SST) anomalies at some typical ocean regions of the Arabian Sea and the Bengal Bay on the northern Indian Ocean, the Western Pacific and the Mid Atlantic, Southern Indian Ocean and around 45°–85°E, 68°–82°N on the southwest Arctic Ocean can be used as the warning signals denoting extreme warming over Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei region. Additionally, urbanization has a significant (at 5% significance) effect on extreme warming over Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei region since 1979, with 24.3% warming contribution for annual minimum temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sheds light on an important and under‐researched issue: The sources of information about climate change that teachers use. Utilising a 'scoping review' methodological approach, we analysed over 600 papers to address two main questions: What sources of information about climate change are teachers using? In what ways are teachers using these sources of information? Through our use of inclusive search terms and detailed analysis of papers, we found only 13 studies of relevance, none of which primarily focus on the sources of information teachers use. The 13 studies are all located in the Global North, and within this nearly half are in the USA. Methodologically, all apart from two rely on teachers' reports rather than observation or other methods. Four types of sources of information were frequently mentioned: The Internet; government sources; mass media and professional development courses. The 'superabundance' of information now available to teachers (particularly online), the importance of high‐quality information for students' understandings of climate change, and the limited research on the sources of information about climate change that teachers use makes this is a significant blind spot for research to address. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Version 5 (v05) of the thermospheric wind data from the Michelson Interferometer for Global High‐resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI) instrument on the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) mission has been recently released, which largely avoids local‐time dependent artificial baseline drifts that are found in previous versions of the ICON/MIGHTI wind data. This paper describes monthly climatologies of zonal‐mean winds and tides based on the v05 ICON/MIGHTI data under geomagnetically quiet conditions (Hp30 < 3o) during April 2020–March 2022. Green‐line winds in the lower thermosphere (90–110 km) and red‐line winds in the middle thermosphere (200–300 km) are analyzed, as these data cover both daytime and nighttime. The latitude and height structures of zonal‐mean winds and tides are presented for each month, and the results are compared with the widely used empirical model, Horizontal Wind Model 2014 (HWM14). The ICON/MIGHTI and HWM14 results are in general agreement, providing a validation of the v05 ICON/MIGHTI data. The agreement is especially good for the zonal‐mean winds. Amplitudes of lower thermospheric tides from ICON/MIGHTI tend to be larger than those from HWM14 as well as from an empirical model, Climatological Tidal Model of the Thermosphere (CTMT). This could be due to the influence of interannual variability of the tides. The amplitude structure of lower thermospheric tides in HWM14 does not match those from ICON/MIGHTI and CTMT in some months. Also, HWM14 underestimates the meridional‐wind amplitude of the migrating diurnal tide in the middle thermosphere. These results highlight the need for improved tidal representation in HWM14. Key Points: Monthly climatologies of zonal‐mean winds and tides at 90–110 km and 200–300 km are determined using v05 Ionospheric Connection Explorer/Michelson Interferometer for Global High‐resolution Thermospheric Imaging (ICON/MIGHTI) observationsICON/MIGHTI and Horizontal Wind Model 2014 results are in general agreement, providing a validation of the Version 5 ICON/MIGHTI dataThe agreement is especially good for the zonal‐mean winds, while some discrepancies are found in tidal amplitudes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important aspect of rainfall estimation is to accurately capture extreme events. Commercial microwave links (CMLs) can complement weather radar and rain gauge data by estimating path‐averaged rainfall intensities near ground. Our aim with this paper was to investigate attenuation induced complete loss of signal (blackout) in the CML data. This effect can occur during heavy rain events and leads to missing extreme values. We analyzed 3 years of attenuation data from 4,000 CMLs in Germany and compared it to a weather radar derived attenuation climatology covering 20 years. We observed that the average CML experiences 8.5 times more blackouts than we would have expected from the radar derived climatology. Blackouts did occur more often for longer CMLs (e.g., >10 km) despite their increased dynamic range. Therefore, both the hydrometeorological community and network providers can consider our analysis to develop mitigation measures. Plain Language Summary: Commercial microwave links (CMLs) are used to transmit information between towers of cellphone networks. If there is rainfall along the transmission path, the signal level is attenuated. By comparing the transmitted and received signal levels, the average rainfall intensity along the path can be estimated. If the attenuation is too strong, no signal is received, no information can be transmitted and no rainfall estimate is available. This is unfavorable both for network stability and rainfall estimation. In this study, we investigated the frequency of such blackouts in Germany. How many blackouts per year are observed in a 3 year CML data set covering around 4,000 link paths and how many are expected from 20 years of weather radar data? We observed that the average CML experiences 8.5 times more blackouts than we would have expected from the radar derived climatology. Blackouts did occur more often for long CMLs, which was an unexpected finding. While only one percent of the annual rainfall amount is missed during blackouts, the probability that a blackout occurs was very high for high rain rates. Both, the hydrometeorological community and network providers can consider our analysis to develop mitigation measures. Key Points: Complete loss of commercial microwave link (CML) signals during heavy rain leads to missing rainfall extremesMagnitude of observed blackouts exceeds climatologically expected valuesUnexpectedly, longer CMLs experience more blackouts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is a powerful driver of agricultural and natural systems, and spatial climate datasets are currently in great demand. This is especially true in the Arequipa Department of Peru, a region with low seasonal precipitation, remarkable topographic variability, and significant water demand in a highly managed water system. This paper presents the Arequipa Climate Maps (ACM) datasets, a high resolution (1 km) spatial 30‐year (1988–2017) climate dataset for the Arequipa Region, in Peru. Four interpolation methods, and combinations of those methods, were tested to produce 30 years of daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature: Ordinary Kriging (OK), Thin Plate Splines (TPS), Regression Kriging (RK), and Regression Thin Plate Splines (RTPS). The mixed method RTPS‐TPS and RTPS using locally fitted polynomial and potential regressions were found to best represent the spatial variability of precipitation and daily extreme temperatures, respectively, and helped compensate the bias resulting from the lack of weather stations at higher elevations. These methods were then selected to create the ACM dataset, which contains climate maps of 30‐year annual and monthly climate normals (ACM–Normals) and 30 years of annual, monthly, and daily climate maps (ACM–YMD). In addition, insights on weather station gap filling in mountainous areas and bias corrections for avoidance of anomalous precipitation and to assure consistency between annual, monthly and daily data are presented, together with discussion about the quality and limitations of the dataset, and its comparison with other datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Royal Meteorological Society's flagship publication, the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (QJ), recently celebrated its 150th anniversary. To commemorate this milestone, a special collection of 22 classic papers was published, highlighting key advancements in the field from 1925 to 2020. The journal has had a wide international reach and impact, as evidenced by its geographical distribution of articles and downloads. The anniversary was also marked by a commemorative meeting, where experts discussed various topics related to meteorology, including climate science, data assimilation, accurate weather forecasting, cloud evolution, and remote sensing observations. The event provided valuable historical perspectives, practical advice on publishing, and networking opportunities for early-career researchers. [Extracted from the article]

The rise in the Earth's global average surface temperature and the increase of extreme weather events have been the focus of scientific discussion in the last decades. Extreme heat combined with other environmental extremes, like high concentrations of air pollution, may induce health problems—especially in socioeconomically vulnerable populations. Spring in South America requires particular attention due to its association with hot, dry weather and air pollution in most parts of the continent. This paper intends to better comprehend the behaviour of heatwaves during the austral winter–spring transition. We propose identifying the spatial coverage, frequency and intensity of heatwaves in homogeneous areas of maximum air temperature near the surface (Tmax). We employed cluster analyses during the period between July and October for 41 years (1979–2019) through the ERA5 reanalysis. Homogeneous Tmax areas in South America were defined by cluster analyses that indicated three homogeneous Tmax regions, as follows: a larger area of the continent including the tropical region (Area 1), eastern and southeastern South America (Area 2) and southernmost and steep areas in the Andes (Area 3). The heatwave events identified via ERA5 reanalysis were classified according to their intensity (intense, moderate and weak events). Spatial frequency and trend analyses were also performed regarding the intensity and persistence of heatwave episodes. These methods allowed the identification of the behavioural aspect of heatwaves spanning the last four decades. The Mann–Kendall statistical test (MK) was applied in order to analyse the heatwave trend with a statistical significance level of 5%. A total of 191 heatwave episodes were identified. Of this total, 47.12, 35.60 and 17.28% of episodes occurred in Areas 2, 3 and 1, respectively. The hotter area extending from northeast to southwest in central South America stood out by its largest frequencies of intense heatwave episodes. Across the continent there was a significant increase in the intensity and persistence of heatwaves over the period of 1979 through to 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genealogies of life assurance have tended to focus on the governmental possibilities of actuarial calculations of mortality, but the case of foreign residence assurance draws attention to other ways in which British companies calculated climate risk between 1840 and 1940. Drawing on archival research, this paper demonstrates that the extra charges imposed on life assurance policies for foreign residence invited conversations about the risks of climate and mortality in countries beyond Britain, drawing on both contemporary climate science and other arguments about climate pathology. Climate risks, however, had to be made to work for both life assurers and policyholders through far‐reaching social‐material networks, and firms frequently tinkered with arrangements of people, ideas, and artefacts in ways that enabled a mapping and governing of such risks. Whether ideas of climate circulating in life assurance were believed or not, they had effects and policyholders submitted to them. Drawing on archival material from several British life assurance companies, including some detailed cases of assured migrant lives, the paper explores how companies made risk calculations in ways that had consequences for ordinary decisions and practices. In so doing, the paper contributes to debates about life assurance and governmentality, showing that foreign residence policies enabled businesses to secure their risks in an era of imperial expansion. But this is no simple story of power and imperialism. Businesses constantly tinkered with their policies, drawing on climate science and medical understandings, but only as part of an always messy, changing assemblage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the advent of climate change as a major challenge of our time, Earth system modeling has become highly policy‐relevant regulatory science. In this situation, the social mechanisms that play a role in any scientific endeavor become particularly exposed. By discussing historical, philosophical, and sociological (HPS) aspects of the field's current "cultures of prediction" together with the physical science community in a physical science journal, we aim to provide an entry point into HPS reasoning for climate scientists interested in reflecting on their field and science in general. This paper, first, introduces our perspective on "science as culture" and climate modeling as "regulatory science" and, second, highlights and connects relevant ideas from the three commentaries that follow it. In so doing, we hope to give a fuller picture of climate science, the interplay it engenders between HPS and the physical sciences, the distinctions that it gives rise to as compared to some of the more traditional, exact, sciences in which it is rooted and its place in society including its role in scientific policy advice. Key Points: With the advent of climate change as a major challenge of our time, Earth system modeling has become highly policy relevantIn this situation, the social mechanisms that play a role in any scientific endeavor become particularly exposedThis paper introduces perspectives on "science as culture" and highlights relevant ideas from the three subsequent commentaries [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clouds are a key player in the global climate system, affecting the atmospheric water and energy budgets, and they are strongly coupled to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Here, we examine the co-variability of the atmospheric energy and water budget imbalances in three different global model configurations-radiative-convective equilibrium, aqua-planet, and global simulations with land. The gradual increase in the level of complexity of the model configuration enables an investigation of the effects of rotation, meridional temperature gradient, land-sea contrast, and seasonal cycle on the co-variability of the water and energy imbalances. We demonstrate how this co-variability is linked to both the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and to cloud properties. Hence, we propose a co-variability-based framework that connects cloud properties to the large-scale tropical circulation and climate system and is directly linked to the top-down constrains on the system--the water and energy budgets. In addition, we examine how the water and energy budget imbalances co-variability depends on the temporal averaging scale, and explain its dependency on how stationary the circulation is in the different model configurations. Finally, we demonstrate the effect of an idealized global warming and convective aggregation on this co-variability. Plain Language Summary Understanding the link between clouds and the atmospheric circulation is considered as a major challenge in climate science. Both atmospheric circulation and clouds are intimately linked to Earth's water and energy budgets. We show that looking at how the residuals of these budgets depend on each other and on cloud properties can provide a new framework with which to study the properties of clouds, circulations, and their respective impacts on the climate system. In this paper, we present this framework, and demonstrate its usefulness for a range of different climate model complexities. We show examples of how the framework could be used to investigate the effects of climate change on clouds and circulation. Finally, we present an application for convective aggregation (the clustering of deep convective clouds in idealized climate models). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sinking atolls are an enduring symbol of the power of climate change to destroy inhabited places. Climate impact science and the media share a panoptic gaze on atoll islands seeing them as being small, inert and passive in the face of rising seas. The focus in these accounts is on the power of water as the agent of destruction, while the agency of the assemblage of human and non‐human actors that is the (is)land itself is ignored. Thus, atolls are said to be vulnerable, and the prevailing ideas of adaptation are either international relocation to avoid the sea or seawalls to contain it. Based on qualitative field research in Pacific atolls, this paper examines the connections between island peoples and their terrestrial environments, and the work that they are doing in response to the impacts of climate change. It shows how land is conceived symbolically, socio‐culturally and legally, and considers its role in sustaining livelihoods and anchoring identities through a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This sequence of papers examines spatio‐temporal variations of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) based on satellite observations. Here in Part 2, spatial patterns of seasonal and diurnal variations of precipitation have been examined based on the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) and three additional satellite products. The results show a spatial dipole pattern of two distinct seasonalities: The central TP is marked by strong July peaks and exhibits rainfall contributions of the monsoon season (May–September) of more than 70%, whereas northwestern and southern regions of the plateau exhibit significantly smaller amplitudes in the annual cycle. In some southern regions which are characterized by very high summer mean precipitation and more extreme rain rates, winter months (October–April) contribute significantly to the total annual mean precipitation. In addition, there are larger differences in seasonal curves along a west‐to‐east axis, than along a north‐to‐south axis. The spatial patterns of diurnal precipitation over the TP are more complex compared to seasonality and point to multiple components, which construct the regional differences. These show also a seasonal dependence and are characterized by a stronger afternoon to early evening peak (17:00 LST time, 11:00 UTC) and weaker nighttime peak (23:00 LST, 17:00 UTC) during the monsoon season and over the plateau compared to its surroundings. Furthermore, it was shown that convective precipitation during the monsoon season contribute only up to 30% to the total precipitation, whereas more than 70% is produced by the 90th percentile of daily rain rates. An important characteristic of summer precipitation is hence that a significant part of the extreme precipitation is non‐convective. This paper reveals new features of spatial patterns in seasonal and diurnal precipitation and highlights the importance of non‐monsoonal components for seasonal precipitation variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2 × CO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7–3.1°C (depending on version) and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks. Plain Language Summary: This paper describes the latest iteration of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, which will be used for understanding historical climate change and to make projections for the future. We compare the model output to a wide range of observations over the recent era (1979–2014) and show that there has been a significant increase in how well the model performs compared to the previous version from 2014, particularly in the Southern Ocean, though some persistent biases remain. The model has a temperature response to the increase of carbon dioxide that is slightly higher than previous versions but is well within the range expected from observational and past climate constraints. Key Points: GISS‐E2.1 is an updated climate model version for use within the CMIP6 projectAtmospheric composition is calculated consistently in all model versionsResults demonstrate a significant improvement in skill in a climate model without changes to atmospheric resolution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the oceanic mean states associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and their relations to the El Niño (EN). The mean states refer to the simultaneous occurrences of warm (W) and cold (C) phases of these oscillations: WAMO/CPDO, CAMO/WPDO and CAMO/CPDO. In general, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns of the mean states show a combination of the PDO and AMO related anomaly patterns in the Pacific Ocean, and the strongest AMO‐related anomaly signals in the Atlantic Ocean with almost antisymmetric SST anomaly patterns in the northern and southern extratropical sectors of this Ocean. One of the most important results of this paper concerns the contrasting features between the CAMO/WPDO and the WAMO/CPDO mean states, which are noticeable for the SST, zonal circulation cell and precipitation during the austral autumn. Besides the opposite inter‐basin equatorial Atlantic/eastern equatorial Pacific cells, the CAMO/WPDO and WAMO/CPDO mean states also feature, respectively, a weakened and strengthened Walker cell in the tropical Pacific during the austral autumn. The results here indicate that the inter‐basin east–west cell between the equatorial Atlantic and eastern Pacific contributes to strengthen (weaken) the Walker cell during the austral autumn of the WAMO/CPDO (CAMO/WPDO) mean state. We also found that the mean states alter the EN features. The EN‐related largest positive SST anomalies occur in the central tropical Pacific during the WAMO/CPDO, and in the eastern tropical Pacific during the CAMO/WPDO. The Atlantic and Pacific oceanic mean states play an important role in modulating the EN features and their effects on the South American rainfall. The results presented in this paper might be relevant for climate monitoring and modelling studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (−3.22, 1.59) and (−2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series. Research Impact Statement: Results show the average net effect of irrigation in the High Plains Aquifer is a reduction in groundwater level of 0.47 feet per year. Climate change could significantly increase the rate of change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using ICESat‐2 and CryoSat‐2 freeboards, we examine the variability of monthly Arctic sea ice snow depth, thickness and volume between October 2018 and April 2021. For the 3 years, satellite‐derived estimates captured a decrease in mean April snow depth (∼2.50 cm) and ice thickness (∼0.28 m) equivalent to an ice volume loss of ∼12.5%. Results show greater thinning of multiyear ice with an end‐of‐season thickness in 2021 that is lower by ∼16.1% (0.50 m), with negligible changes over first‐year ice. For the period, sea ice thickness estimates using snow depth from climatology result in thicker ice (by up to ∼0.22 m) with a smaller decrease in multiyear ice thickness (∼0.38 m). An 18‐year satellite record, since the launch of ICESat, points to a loss of ∼6,000 km3 or one‐third of the winter Arctic ice volume driven by decline in multiyear‐ice coverage in the multi‐decadal transition to a largely seasonal ice cover. Plain Language Summary: Ice thickness and volume are critical variables for assessing the evolution and response of the polar sea ice cover to a warming climate. Retrieval of sea ice thickness from altimeter freeboards (i.e., the vertical height of the floating ice and snow above the local sea level) requires knowledge of loading due to snow. Until recently, snow depth has been prescribed with a climatology based on historical field records. Using freeboard differences from ICESat‐2 and CryoSat‐2, we are now able to derive snow depth estimates. In this paper we examine the differences between climatological and satellite‐derived snow depth as well as the retrieved ice thicknesses from the two altimeter missions. Their changes for three winters between 2018 and 2021 are documented. Derived ice volume estimates are placed within the context of an 18‐year satellite record. Key Points: For 2018–2021, the decline in mean Arctic sea ice thickness of ∼0.28 m in spring is largely explained by ∼0.50 m thinning of multiyear iceSatellite‐derived snow depth estimates, when compared to climatology, provide a thinner Arctic ice thickness especially during the fallSatellite records since 2003 show a loss of one‐third of the winter sea ice volume driven by the decline in multiyear ice coverage [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses over 10,000 quality‐controlled pilot reports of low‐level wind shear ('wind shear') at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA; ICAO code: VHHH) between 2001 and 2019. HKIA is well known for its susceptibility to wind shear, which is a potential hazard for aircraft during landing and take‐off. Wind shear at HKIA exhibits strong seasonality with double peaks in the middle of the spring and summer months. There is a strong diurnal cycle in report numbers, peaking towards the afternoon, as modulated by air traffic at HKIA. On average, there are 115 days per year with wind shear reported, with possible power law distribution in the number of days with different number of reports. By comparing the background wind distribution during those minutes with pilot reports against the climatological distribution, wind shear is observed to be, on average, favoured under higher wind speeds (≥6 m s−1) and reduced under lower speeds with shifted frequency peak and heavier tail, although statistical behaviour can differ significantly across individual runway corridors. Preferred background wind directions for wind shear occurrence highlight the role of terrain influence upstream of HKIA. While positive shear (65.6%) is more often reported than negative shear (34.4%), both types of wind shear events appear to follow an exponential distribution in shear magnitude, with similar rates of decay. This is by far the largest statistical study of low‐level wind shear at an airport. Results can serve as an important local reference in addition to being a useful example for airports around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is one of the most important climate systems during boreal winter. It has a large meridional extent and provides a vital bridge between the mid‐to‐high latitudes and the tropics. This paper reviews the latest research on the climate variability of the EAWM, with particular emphasis on the associated processes of extratropical–tropical interaction. Some new results have been achieved in understanding the variation of the EAWM on interdecadal, interannual, and intraseasonal time scales, such as the interdecadal strengthening in the early 21st century, the unstable impact of El Niño–South Oscillation (ENSO) on the EAWM, and the intraseasonal strong cold events in East Asia. In addition, understanding of the extratropical–tropical interactions related to the EAWM has improved in several aspects, including the impacts of the EAWM on ENSO‐related climate effects, and the variation of regional Hadley circulation over the western Pacific and its climate impacts in the Asia–Australia region. Moreover, recent work has systematically evaluated the capacity of climate models to simulate the EAWM, including its climatology, interannual to interdecadal variations, and its relationship with ENSO. Finally, some scientific issues regarding our understanding of the EAWM are proposed for future investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The often neglected Guy Stewart Callendar (a steam engineer, for whom climate science was a hobby) was the first to bring together measurements of carbon dioxide concentration with how much the world had warmed from the late-nineteenth century in two key papers in I QJRMS i (in 1938 and 1961). David gave a brief history of climate science and how this has impacted UK Government Policy over the period since the late 1980s. Joanna also noted those who were sceptical of the importance of carbon dioxide (Knut Angstrom who erroneously stated that the carbon dioxide absorption bands were swamped by water vapour, and later ideas in the 1950s that carbon dioxide was being taken out of the atmosphere by the oceans much more than in reality). [Extracted from the article]

VALUE is a network that developed a framework to evaluate statistical downscaling methods including model output statistics such as simple bias correction and quantile mapping; perfect prognosis methods such as regression models and analog methods; and weather generators. The first experiment addresses the downscaling performance in present climate with perfect predictors. This paper presents a synthesis of the VALUE special issue, with a focus on the results of this first experiment. This paper presents a synthesis of the results. Model output statistics performs mostly well, but requires predictors at a resolution close to the target one. Perfect prog performance depends crucially on model structure and predictor choice. Weather generators perform in principle well for all aspects that can be expressed by the available model structure. Inter‐annual variability is underrepresented by both perfect prog and weather generator approaches. Spatial variability is poorly represented by almost all participating methods (inherited by model output statistics from the driving model, not represented by the perfect prog and weather generator methods). Further studies are required to systematically assess (a) the role of predictor choice for perfect prog; (b) the performance of spatial weather generators, to study the performance based on GCM predictors; (c) downscaling skill in simulated future climates; and (d) the credibility of simulated predictors in a future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares multiple gridded data sets of daily UK precipitation to evaluate structural uncertainty in our reconstructions of historical rainfall. The data sets compared reflect two different sampling strategies and three different grid interpolation methods. In order to separate the influence of sampling and interpolation uncertainties, one of the data sets (produced by the Met Office) has been recreated using the sampling strategy of stations used in the European (E‐OBS) data set. The results confirm and build upon previous studies showing that relying on a relatively sparse but homogeneous network of stations limits the ability of the resulting data set to reliably estimate extreme rainfall at the daily timescale. It is shown that gridding methods that additionally make use of reference climatological data can avoid systematic bias in both the average and extreme events even when using a relatively sparse network of observations. This is an encouraging result in terms of our potential to reliably extend such data sets further back in time where the availability of digitized data is substantially lower than the more modern era. This paper compares multiple gridded rainfall data sets for the UK to analyse structural uncertainty in historical reconstructions of rainfall. In particular, as well as highlighting the shortcomings of using a sparse network of long‐running rainfall stations (as per E‐OBS), this paper shows that gridding methods that make use of reference climatological data help avoid systematic bias. This is a promising and valuable result for purposes of extending rainfall series back in time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean is characterized with a large number of local winds. One region in the Mediterranean—the Balkan Peninsula or simply the Balkans—is particularly rich with local winds of different types including downslope and upslope winds, gap flows, and thermally induced breezes from land to sea and vice versa. This study presents the first comprehensive review of all currently known local winds in the Balkans, with coastal winds reviewed separately from inland winds. Besides providing the main climatological and dynamics characteristics of these winds, this paper also hints on the existence of various connections between several local winds that have not been reported previously. In total, this article lists 27 different local winds above the Balkans with 17 and 10 being coastal and inland winds, respectively. By far, the most researched local wind in the Balkans has been the Adriatic bora that blows along the Croatian coast. Interestingly, there are more papers investigating bora than the number of studies on all other winds in the Balkans. Local winds over the Adriatic have been explored more than the winds above the Aegean, and these, in turn, were investigated more often than the winds that blow over the Ionian and Black Seas. The most researched inland wind is the koshava wind that blows over the northern and central Serbia. Typical synoptic situations for most local winds are also provided with the note that the synoptic precursors of few local winds have not previously been documented. Lastly, this article discusses the prospects for further research in this field with the emphasis on the investigation of potential relationships between different local winds in this region. The first review of all local winds above the Balkans (27 in total). Besides providing the main climatological and dynamics characteristics of local winds in the Balkans, this article also finds potential relationships between several local winds. Prospects for further research in this field critically discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropics are expanding poleward at an alarming rate-with massive implications for societies, economies, and natural environments. This expansion appears to be determined largely by anthropogenic drivers-notably rises in greenhouse gases. Of greatest concern is the poleward shift of the dry sub-tropical zone into highly populated regions that have generally enjoyed a more temperate climate. While the effects of latitudinal shifts of climate zones will be most severe in temperate regions outside the tropics, there will also be significant changes in climate within the tropics-notably unprecedented thermal conditions for hundreds of millions of people, along with projections for more extreme weather events. Australia's geographical location makes it particularly vulnerable to an expanding tropics. As the tropics expand poleward, more of southern Australia will be influenced by the dry sub-tropical zone and associated reductions in winter rainfall. These drying trends are projected to continue over most southern parts of Australia this century, accompanied by rising temperatures and more hot days. Future rainfall trends for northern Australia remain uncertain, but there is an expected significant increase in the number of hot days, together with more extreme weather events. Future climate change in northern Australia has been ignored by the White Paper for the Development of Northern Australia (2015), bringing into serious question the feasibility and affordability of many of the development policies, plans, and projects promulgated in the White Paper. Even without climate change, the north faces many significant environmental and economic challenges for its future development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Met Office Global Hazard Map (GHM) summarizes the risk of high‐impact weather across the globe over the coming week using global ensemble forecast data. In addition to gridded daily probability forecasts, a symbol and polygon‐based summary layer gives an at‐a‐glance view of likely high‐impact weather for the week ahead. To evaluate the performance of the GHM, two complementary approaches were used. The first is an objective precipitation verification approach comparing the daily gridded precipitation forecasts with global precipitation observations. The second, and the main focus of this paper is a new, semi‐automated evaluation approach that assesses the ability of the multi‐model ensemble precipitation summary layer to highlight events that cause community impacts, as recorded in an impact database. The verification against observed precipitation confirms there is good skill in the precipitation forecasts and that the multi‐model ensemble provides the best guidance to take forward into the summary layer. The verification against impacts indicates there is a good spatial relationship between the GHM precipitation forecasts and heavy rainfall impacts across the globe. Hit rates for all impact severities range from 40 to 60% for days 1–3 and taper off to lower hit rates at the longer lead times (10–20% for days 6–7). High‐impact events are captured marginally less well than the low‐, medium‐ and disastrous‐impact event categories and this paper illustrates a number of approaches that could positively alter the profile of the hit‐rate curve. The Met Office Global Hazard Map (GHM) summarizes the risk of high‐impact weather across the globe over the coming week using global‐ensemble forecast data. A new, semi‐automated evaluation approach that assesses the ability of the multi‐model ensemble precipitation summary layers to highlight events that cause community impacts, as recorded in an impact database, is described. Hit rates for all impact severities range from 40 to 60% for days 1–3 and taper off to lower hit rates at the longer lead times (10–20% for days 6–7). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extra‐tropical cyclones are a relevant feature in the climate at middle and high latitudes. Despite their importance, most studies typically focus only on cyclones identified at a single atmospheric level and on events close to the surface. This paper provides a new perspective on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) cyclone events based on the multilevel cyclone tracking algorithm STACKER. The algorithm, using relative vorticity, detects the raw tracks at single levels and objectively combines them to provide the 3D events and their evolutionary timeline. As a result, a 3D cyclone climatology, based on ECMWF Reanalysis ERA‐I data from 12 pressure levels in the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere is presented. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first analysis carried out throughout the troposphere and the lowermost extratropical/subpolar stratosphere in order to give a comprehensive picture of the cyclone events as physical entities throughout their lifetime. Cyclone properties analysed are track densities, translational velocity, vorticity and lifetimes. For the subtropical and extra‐tropical SH, results support many previous ideas about cyclone characteristics, but new insights are also obtained. A total of 58,231 multilevel cyclone events lasting at least 2 days were detected, with vertical structures spanning two or more levels. This means an average of 303 cyclone events of all types per month, between 2001 and 2017, disregarding seasonality. Results show that cyclones are most frequently detected at the lowest levels of 925 and 700 hPa. By considering that cyclonic systems can be grouped into families according to their vertical extent, results per month on average show that shallow systems are the most frequent events with approximately 248 systems detected, followed by 43 intermediary and 11 deep events. Shallow and deep systems have a large percentage of events with genesis at 925 and 700 hPa. Density statistics show that shallow events are present at all latitude ranges mostly poleward of 30°S with high‐ and medium‐intensities, while intermediate ones are mostly restricted to mid‐latitudes and deep events are mostly confined to sub‐polar and polar latitudes. Cyclones over Antarctica seem to be mostly intermediary and deep cyclones, with longer lifetimes and lower velocities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most climatologies use 30‐year epochs that are updated at the start of each decade. They will shift from 1981–2010 to 1991–2020 in 2021. North Atlantic hurricane activity has large interdecadal variability that may lead to biases in a 30‐year climatology. A previous inactive hurricane period included 1981–1990, while 2011–2020 is a part of the ongoing active era. As a result, the 1991–2020 normals are more active than the 1981–2010 normals, with the median accumulated cyclone energy increasing by ∼40%. A 50‐year epoch would be more likely to capture a full cycle of multidecadal variability, and this study demonstrates that 50‐year climatologies have historically been better predictors of the subsequent decade's hurricane activity. This paper argues that the 1971–2020 climatology should, therefore, be the baseline for hurricane activity for the next decade with a possible adjustment for the non‐climatic increase in observed short‐lived tropical cyclones. Plain Language Summary: Climatologies are typically 30‐year averages that are updated at the start of a new decade (e.g., in 2021, the 30‐year average will be updated from 1981–2010 to 1991–2020). However, known changes in hurricane activity between decades are not typically well represented by a 30‐year climatology. For example, 1981–1990 was a part of the last quiet period, but 2011–2020 is a part of the current active era. The 1991–2020 hurricane climatology is, therefore, much more active than 1981–2010. An integrated metric accounting for intensity, duration, and frequency of storms increases by 40% from the 1981–2010 to the 1991–2020 climatology. A 50‐year climatology is more likely to include both active and quiet eras, which gives a better picture of "normal" hurricane activity. This study shows that the 50‐year climatology has better predictive skill for seasonal hurricane activity than that of the standard 30‐year average. New technology has also led to an increase in the number of short‐lived tropical storms. The 50‐year average for 1971–2020 with an adjustment for short‐lived storms is likely to be the most representative climatology for the next decade. Key Points: A 30‐year climatology for 1991–2020 is considerably higher than that for 1981–2010 and is likely not representative of the full recordThirty‐year North Atlantic climatologies have larger root mean squared hurricane prediction errors than 50‐year climatologiesThe most representative climatology for 2021–2030 is likely 1971–2020 with an adjustment for short‐lived named storms [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing from theory on the "co-production" of science and society, this paper provides an account of trajectories in US climatology, roughly from the 1850s to 1920, the period during which climatology emerged as an organized branch of meteorology and government administration. The historical narrative traces the development of climatology both as a professional/institutional project and as a component of a larger governmental logic. Historical analysis of climatologists' scientific texts, maps, and social organization within government provides a sociological explanation for the emergent "stabilization" of climate as a geographic-statistical category. Climatic stability, defined by the view that climate is unchanging, was advanced over this period in a way that linked the interests and practices of climatologists to actors invested in facilitating and administrating commercial agriculture and trade. I position the logic of climatology and the discourse of climatic stability historically, with reference to prior concern with climate change and, in recent decades, efforts to govern global warming through geoengineering climatic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar irradiance represents the dominant energy source heating the Earth's atmosphere and climate. Both total solar irradiance and spectral solar irradiance vary over the 11‐year solar cycle. Characterizing these variations with sufficient accuracy for climate studies over multidecadal timescales requires a combination of multiple observational data sets, solar activity proxies, and irradiance models. NASA established the Solar Irradiance Science Team (SIST) program in 2015 to pursue this goal using a range of technical approaches. This paper summarizes those investigations, whose results are reported in separate papers in a special section of this journal. Key Points: Providing solar irradiance data for climate science requires combining information from satellite observations, solar activity proxies, and model resultsNASA implemented the Solar Irradiance Science Team (SIST) program to address this needThis paper describes the investigations carried out within the SIST program during 2015–2018 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characterization of the alpine extreme precipitation is the basis to study the projected changes in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall and is needed to improve the resilience of communities to high‐impact weather. Climatological features of extreme daily and sub‐daily precipitation are documented here for the Swiss Alps and surrounding regions at a high spatial resolution (1 km2). The basis is 12 years of data from rain gauges and CombiPrecip, a rainfall field produced by locally adjusting the radar precipitation map to the values measured by rain gauges. The agreement between rain gauges and CombiPrecip concerning both the timing and the magnitude of the extreme events is quantified by cross‐validation; overall, it increases with diminishing the severity of the extremes and increasing accumulation time. If the extremes represent on average the 10 most intense rainfall accumulations per year, in general 50–65% of rain gauges extremes are extremes also for CombiPrecip, 40–50% of CombiPrecip extremes are not extremes according to rain gauges, and CombiPrecip extremes are till 7% lower than rain gauges extremes. The maps presented in this paper show that both daily and sub‐daily extremes are more intense along the alpine slopes compared to the crest of the Alps in all seasons, with the Lago Maggiore region showing the largest values. The fraction of yearly rainfall due to extremes is generally smaller in the Alps than in flat terrain. Extreme 1‐hr precipitation is more clustered in time in the inner Alps, but is less frequent, and exhibits a strong diurnal cycle in summer. The paper also shows that sub‐daily and daily extremes occur essentially over the same 24‐hr period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The ecosystem services (ES) approach is a framework for describing the benefits of nature to human well‐being, and this has become a popular instrument for assessment and evaluation of ecosystems and their functions. Grazing lands can provide a wide array of ES that depend on their management practices and intensity. This article reviews the trends and approaches used in the analysis of some relevant ES provided by grazing systems, in line with the framework principles of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). The scientific literature provides reports of many studies on ES in general, but the search here focused on grazing systems, which returned only sixty‐two papers. This review of published papers highlights that: (i) in some papers, the concept of ES as defined by the MA is misunderstood (e.g., lack of anthropocentric vision); (ii) 34% of the papers dealt only with one ES, which neglects the need for the multisectoral approach suggested by the MA; (iii) few papers included stakeholder involvement to improve local decision‐making processes; (iv) cultural ES have been poorly studied despite being considered the most relevant for local and general stakeholders; and (v) stakeholder awareness of well‐being as provided by ES in grazing systems can foster both agri‐environmental schemes and the willingness to pay for these services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses worldwide challenges, perhaps most in coastal areas. Governments on different scales respond with planning and policy measures, many with drastic impact. In this paper we assess the role of cultural heritage in planning for climate change on the former island Goeree‐Overflakkee in the Netherlands. We do so by exploring the theoretical discourse on the nexus of climate change and heritage discourses and relating these to an analysis of mitigation and adaptation measures on the island of Goeree‐Overflakkee in the Dutch river delta. It appears that the scale and political urgency of climate change induces involvement of many different governments, resulting in an inconsistent integration of cultural heritage in these plans and policies. These outcomes demonstrate that in order to integrate heritage in climate adaptation and mitigation planning, governments cannot rely on established planning traditions for other spatial challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the potential benefit of limiting the global warming to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level on the high‐latitude climate of the Southern Hemisphere compared to 2.0°C and above. A set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate model experiments is used in order to determine the mean projected changes in surface air temperature, sea level pressure, surface winds and sea ice distribution over and around Antarctica. Alongside, changes in selected variables related to extremes (such as the annual number of extremely cold mornings and extremely cold days) are also quantified as a function of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) considered reaching the given warming threshold. Physical mechanisms for the projected variations in sea ice are proposed, including surface air temperature, changes in low‐level air temperature advection and meridional winds. Results show that there would be significant differences in the atmospheric and sea ice variable changes depending on the warming threshold and RCP considered, and that indeed keeping the global warming under 1.5°C could have a noticeable impact particularly on the distribution of sea ice over the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth system models enable a broad range of climate interactions that physical climate models are unable to simulate. However, the extent to which adding Earth system components changes or improves the simulation of the physical climate is not well understood. Here we present a broad multivariate evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in historical simulations of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) performed for CMIP6. In particular, we focus on the mean state and the decadal time scale evolution of important variables that span the North Atlantic climate system. In general, UKESM1 performs well and realistically simulates many aspects of the North Atlantic climate system. Like the physical version of the model, we find that changes in external forcing, and particularly aerosol forcing, are an important driver of multidecadal change in UKESM1, especially for Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. However, many of the shortcomings identified are similar to common biases found in physical climate models, including the physical climate model that underpins UKESM1. For example, the summer jet is too weak and too far poleward; decadal variability in the winter jet is underestimated; intraseasonal stratospheric polar vortex variability is poorly represented; and Arctic sea ice is too thick. Forced shortwave changes may be also too strong in UKESM1, which, given the important role of historical aerosol forcing in shaping the evolution of the North Atlantic in UKESM1, motivates further investigation. Therefore, physical model development, alongside Earth system development, remains crucial in order to improve climate simulations. Plain Language Summary: The North Atlantic climate system plays an important role in regulating Earth's climate, and variability within the Atlantic can have important impacts on society. However, we do not understand all the linkages between different parts of the North Atlantic. Furthermore, climate simulations, which are an essential tool for improving our understanding, have shortcomings that can affect their utility. New developments in Earth System climate simulations could remedy these shortcomings. However, we do not understand the extent to which the addition of complex Earth system developments have changed or improved the simulation of the physical climate. Therefore, in this paper, we present a multidisciplinary evaluation of the North Atlantic climate in simulations made with the UK's Earth System Model, UKESM1. We find that simulations made with UKESM1 capture many aspects of the North Atlantic climate and that human activities have a large impact on the North Atlantic in UKESM1. Nevertheless, we also highlight some shortcomings of the simulations, many of which are like those seen in physical climate simulations. Therefore, further development of both the physical and Earth system components is needed to improve climate simulations in the future. Key Points: UKESM1 performs well across a range of variables and components of the North Atlantic climate system when compared with observationsA range of shortcomings are still present in the simulations, however, with many shortcomings similar to those of the physical climate modelDevelopment of the physical model, alongside the Earth system components, is crucial for improved climate simulations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]