Search

Abstract: The association between the monthly total ozone concentration and monthly maximum temperature over Kolkata (22.56°N, 88.30° E), India, has been explored in this paper. For this, the predictability of monthly maximum temperature based on the total ozone as predictor is investigated using Artificial Neural Network. The presence of persistence and similar cyclic patterns are revealed through autocorrelation and cross-correlation coefficients. Common cycles of length 12 and 6 have been identified through periodogram. Hence, a predictive model has been generated by Artificial Neural Network in the form of Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) using scaled conjugate gradient learning with sigmoid non-linearity. After training and testing the network, an MLP with total ozone of month n as predictor and maximum temperature of month (n +1) as the target output is found as the best model. Performance of the model has been judged statistically. Finally, the MLP model has been compared with linear and non-linear regressions and the efficiency of MLP has been established over the regression models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper explores the observation made by the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer EPTOMS to analyse the predictability of daily total ozone concentration over Kolkata, India. Latitude, longitude, aerosol index, reflectivity, sulphur dioxide index and total ozone concentration of a given day have been used as independent variables to predict total ozone concentration of the next day. Artificial neural network in the forms of a multilayer perceptron, generalized feed forward neural network, a radial basis function network and a modular neural network have been trained to generate predictive models. Performances of the models in the test cases have been judged with the help of four statistical parameters. Finally the models have been compared with multiple linear regression and the potential of generalized feed forward neural network has been established over the other proposed models. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]