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In low-seismicity areas such as Europe, seismic records do not cover the whole range of variable configurations required for seismic hazard analysis. Usually, a set of empirical models established in such context (the Mediterranean Basin, northeast U.S.A., Japan, etc.) is considered through a logic-tree-based selection process. This approach is mainly based on the scientist's expertise and ignores the uncertainty in model selection. One important and potential consequence of neglecting model uncertainty is that we assign more precision to our inference than what is warranted by the data, and this leads to overly confident decisions and precision. In this paper, we investigate the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach, using nine ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) issued from several databases. The BMA method has become an important tool to deal with model uncertainty, especially in empirical settings with large number of potential models and relatively limited number of observations. Two numerical techniques, based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method and the maximum likelihood estimation approach, for implementing BMA are presented and applied together with around 1000 records issued from the RESORCE-2013 database. In the example considered, it is shown that BMA provides both a hierarchy of GMPEs and an improved out-of-sample predictive performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many jurisdictions require cyclists to wear bicycle helmets. The UK is currently not one of these. However, an increasing number of interest groups, including the British Medical Association, want to change the status quo. They argue that mandatory cycle helmet laws will reduce the incidence of head injuries and that this will be both good for cyclists (because they will suffer fewer head injuries) and good for society (because the burden of having to treat cyclists suffering from head injuries will be reduced). In this paper we argue against this position. We suggest that cycle helmets may not be especially effective in reducing head injuries and we suggest that the imposition of such a restrictive law would violate people's freedom and reduce their autonomy. We also argue that those who accept such a restrictive law would be committed to supporting further legislation which would force many other groups -- including pedestrians -- to take fewer risks with their health. We conclude that cycle helmet legislation should not be enacted in the UK unless, perhaps, it is restricted to children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a paper in the last issue of Clinical Medicine, some of the background to attitudes to newly dead bodies, the current context of an urgent need for organs for transplant and the objections to calling a proposal to address this 'presumed consent' were outlined. Here further concerns are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides information about the development of the journal "Archives of Disease in Childhood." The British Medical Association (BMA) has founded the journal in 1926. In 1977, the BMA and British Pediatric Association (BPA) became partners and shared profits and losses with up to 800 copies given to BPA members. Years passed by, the journal has adapted new technology and become more friendly to the reader. It has embraced standard approaches to assessment and criticisms of papers.

Accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities like runoff orwater level are beneficial to various areas of society. Probabilistic state-of-the-arthydrological ensemble prediction models are usually driven with meteorologicalensemble forecasts. Hence, biases and dispersion errors of the meteorological forecastscascade down to the hydrological predictions and add to the errors of the hydrologicalmodels. The systematic parts of these errors can be reduced by applying statisticalpost-processing. For a sound estimation of predictive uncertainty and an optimalcorrection of systematic errors, statistical post-processing methods should be tailoredto the particular forecast variable at hand. Former studies have shown that it canmake sense to treat hydrological quantities as bounded variables. In this paper adoubly truncated Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method [1] is introduced, whichgeneralizes the truncated normal BMA model for wind speed calibration [2]. Theproposed approach allows for flexible post-processing of multi-model ensembleforecasts of water level. A case study based on water level for a gauge of riverRhine, reveals a good predictive skill of doubly truncated BMA compared both tothe raw ensemble and the reference ensemble model output statistics approach[3]. References [1] Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M. (2005) Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1155–1174. [2] Baran, S. (2014) Probabilistic wind speed forecasting using Bayesian model averaging with truncated normal components. Comput. Stat. Data. Anal. 75, 227–238. [3] Hemri, S. and Klein, B. (2017) Analog based post-processing of navigation-related hydrological ensemble forecasts. Water Resour. Res. 53, 9059–9077. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents the results of the election of voting members of the British Medical Association council in Great Britain for the year 1986-87. Data on the election in each region; List of officers elected; Number of voting papers issued nad valid papers returned.

Reports medical developments in Great Britain as of August 1987. Campaign of British Medical Association against cigarette smoking; Issuance of consultation papers on performance indicators for the health service by the National Health Service Management Board; Announcement on the applications for scientists on cancer research awards.

Features the candidates for the council election of British Medical Association in Great Britain. Issuance date of the ballot papers; Submission date of votes; Announcement of the result in the journal.

Focuses on the report on primary care by the Department of Health and Social Security in Great Britain. Contents of the primary care green paper; Need to improve services on patients; Importance of consultations between public ministers and the British Medical Association on medical policies concerning the National Health Service.