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The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) significantly affects East Asian climate. Previous studies have elucidated interannual variability of the WNPAC associated with El Niño, but decadal variability of the WNPAC remains unknown. The present paper investigates the dominant modes of decadal variability of the WNPAC by using observational data. The first decadal mode, characterized by an anomalous anticyclone centered over the western North Pacific, is associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The relationship between the first mode and the PDO shifted from in phase to out of phase around 1966. From 1900 to 1966 when the PDO and the first mode are in phase, the anticyclone is maintained by the effects of both the strengthened Aleutian low through meridional atmospheric forcing and Indian Ocean warming through enhanced zonal Walker circulation. From 1967 to 2012, the anticyclone is induced by cold SST anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific when the PDO and the first mode are out of phase. The second decadal mode is characterized by an anomalous anticyclone extending from southeastern China to the Philippine Sea and is associated with the Maritime Continent (MC). This anticyclone resides in the sinking branch of the local Hadley circulation, triggered by enhanced convection associated with the MC warming from 1900 to 2012. The finding of the decadal WNPAC in this paper may provide a new way to explain East Asian climate on a decadal time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current adaptation and increase resilience by filling the important gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this and in 2017 established the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened to "Lead Centre" below), which annually provides a large multimodel ensemble of predictions covering the next 5 years. This international collaboration produces a prediction that is more skillful and useful than any single center can achieve. One of the main outputs of the Lead Centre is the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU), a consensus forecast based on these predictions. This update includes maps showing key variables, discussion on forecast skill, and predictions of climate indices such as the global mean near-surface temperature and Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates the probability of the global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least 1 year in the next 5 years, which helps policy-makers understand how closely the world is approaching this goal of the Paris Agreement. This paper, written by the authors of the GADCU, introduces the GADCU, presents its key outputs, and briefly discusses its role in providing vital climate information for society now and in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability in soil moisture has implications for regional terrestrial environments under a warming climate. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variability in the intra-annual persistence of soil moisture in China using the fifthgeneration reanalysis dataset by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the period 1979-2018. The results show that in China, the mean intra-annual persistence in the humid to arid zones increased from 60 to 115 days in the lower layer but decreased from 19 to 13 days and from 25 to 14 days in the upper and root layers, respectively. However, these changes were strongly attenuated in extremely dry and wet regions due to the scarcity of soil moisture anomalies. Large changes in persistence occurred in the lower soil layer in dryland areas, with a mean difference of up to 40 days between the 2010s and the 1980s. Overall increasing trends dominated the large-scale spatial features, despite regional decreases in the eastern arid zone and the North and Northeast China plains. In the root layer, the two plains experienced an expanded decrease while on the Tibetan Plateau it was dominated by decadal variability. These contrasting changes between the lower and root layers along the periphery of the transition zone was a reflection of the enhanced soil hydrological cycle in the root layer. The enhanced persistence in drylands lower layer is an indication of the intensified impacts of soil moisture anomalies (e.g., droughts) on terrestrial water cycle. These findings may help the understanding of climate change impacts on terrestrial environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arecent paper byHu et al. (https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax7727) has raised the interesting question of whether the ocean circulation has been ''speeding up'' in the last decades. Their result contrasts with some estimates of the lack of major trends in oceanic surface gravity waves and wind stress. In general, both the increased energy and implied power inputs of the calculated circulation correspond to a small fraction of the very noisy background values. An example is the implied power increase of about 3 3 108 W, as compared to wind energy inputs of order 1012W. Here the problem is reexamined using a state estimate that has the virtue of being energy, mass, etc. conserving. Because it is an estimate over an entire recent 26-yr interval, it is less sensitive to the strong changes in observational data density and distribution, and it does not rely upon nonconservative ''reanalyses.'' The focus is on the energy lying in the surface layers of the ocean. A potential energy increase is found, but it is almost completely unavailable--arising from the increase in mean sea level. A weak increase in kinetic energy in the top layer (10m) is confirmed, corresponding to an increase of order 1 cms-1 yr-1 over 26 years. An estimate of kinetic energy in the full water column shows nomonotonic trend, but the changes in the corresponding available potential energy are not calculated here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a study on long-term surface solar radiation (SSR) changes over China under clear- and all-sky conditions and analyzes the causes of the "dimming" and "brightening." To eliminate the nonclimatic signals in the historical records, the daily SSR dataset was first homogenized using quantile-matching (QM) adjustment. The results reveal rapid dimming before 2000 not only under all-sky conditions, but also under clear-sky conditions, at a decline rate of −9.7 ± 0.4 W m−2 decade−1 (1958–99). This is slightly stronger than that under all-sky conditions at −7.4 ± 0.4 W m−2 decade−1, since the clear-sky dimming stopped 15 years later. A rapid "wettening" of about 40-Pa surface water vapor pressure (SWVP) from 1985 to 2000 was found over China. It contributed 2.2% to the SSR decline under clear-sky conditions during the whole dimming period (1958–99). Therefore, water vapor cannot be the main cause of the long-term dimming in China. After a stable decade (1999–2008), an intensive brightening appeared under the clear-sky conditions at a rate of 10.6 ± 2.0 W m−2 decade−1, whereas a much weaker brightening (−0.8 ± 3.1 W m−2 decade−1) has been observed under all-sky conditions between 2008 and 2016. The remarkable divergence between clear- and all-sky trends in recent decades indicates that the clouds played two opposite roles in the SSR changes during the past 30 years, by compensating for the declining SSR under the cloud-free conditions in 1985–99 and by counteracting the increasing SSR under cloud-free conditions in 2008–16. Aerosols remain as the main cause of dimming and brightening over China in the last 60 years, although the clouds counteract the effects of aerosols after 2000. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes version 3 of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA3) ocean reanalysis with enhancements to model resolution, observation, and forcing datasets, and the addition of active sea ice. SODA3 relies on the ocean component of the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.5 coupled model with nominal ¼° resolution. A scheme has also been implemented to reduce bias in the surface fluxes. A 37-yr-long ocean reanalysis, SODA3.4.2, created using this new SODA3 system is compared to the previous generation of SODA (SODA2.2.4) as well as to the Hadley Centre EN4.1.1 no-model statistical objective analysis. The comparison is carried out in the tropics, the midlatitudes, and the Arctic and includes examinations of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic. The comparison shows that SODA3.4.2 has reduced systematic errors to a level comparable to those of the no-model statistical objective analysis in the upper ocean. The accuracy of variability has been improved particularly poleward of the tropics, with the greatest improvements seen in the Arctic, accompanying a substantial reduction in surface net heat and freshwater flux bias. These improvements justify increasing use of ocean reanalysis for climate studies including the higher latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine various options for the calculation of the forced signal in climate model simulations, and the impact these choices have on the estimates of internal variability. We find that an ensemble mean of runs from a single climate model [a single model ensemble mean (SMEM)] provides a good estimate of the true forced signal even for models with very few ensemble members. In cases where only a single member is available for a given model, however, the SMEM from other models is in general out-performed by the scaled ensemble mean from all available climate model simulations [the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM)]. The scaled MMEM may therefore be used as an estimate of the forced signal for observations. The MMEM method, however, leads to increasing errors further into the future, as the different rates of warming in the models causes their trajectories to diverge. We therefore apply the SMEM method to those models with a sufficient number of ensemble members to estimate the change in the amplitude of internal variability under a future forcing scenario. In line with previous results, we find that on average the surface air temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in precipitation increases on average, particularly at high latitudes. Variability in sea level pressure decreases on average in the Southern Hemisphere, while in the Northern Hemisphere there are regional differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents observational evidence of the atmospheric circulation during the Late Maunder Minimum (LMM, 1685-1715) based on daily wind direction observations from ships in the English Channel. Four wind directional indices and 8-point wind roses are derived at monthly scales to characterize the LMM. The results indicate that the LMM was characterized by a pronounced meridional circulation and a marked reduction in the frequency of westerly days all year round, as compared to the present (1981-2010). The winter circulation contributed the most to the cold conditions. Nevertheless, findings indicate that the LMM in Europe was more heterogeneous than previously thought, displaying contrasting spatial patterns in both circulation and temperature, as well as large decadal variability. In particular, there was an increase of northerly winds favoring colder winters in the first half of the LMM, but enhanced southerlies contributing to milder conditions in the second half of the LMM. The analysis of the atmospheric circulation yields a new and complete classification ofLMMwinters. The temperature inferred from the atmospheric circulation confirms the majority of extremely cold winters well documented in the literature, while uncovering other less documented cold and mild winters. The results also suggest a nonstationarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern within the LMM, with extremely cold winters being driven by negative phases of a ''high zonal'' NAO pattern and ''low zonal'' NAO patterns dominating during moderately cold winters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decadal prediction is a relatively new branch of climate science that bridges the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and multidecadal-to-century projections of climate change. This paper develops a three-step framework toward the potential application of decadal temperature predictions using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). In step 1, the predictions are evaluated and it is found that the temperature hindcasts show skill over some regions of the United States and Canada. In step 2, the predictions are manipulated using two methods: a deterministic-anomaly approach (like climate change projections) and a probabilistic tercile-based approach (like seasonal forecasts). In step 3, the predictions are translated by adding a delta (for the anomaly manipulation) and conducting a weighted resample (for the probabilistic manipulation), as well as using a new hybrid method. Using the 2010 initialized hindcast, the framework is demonstrated for predicting 2011-15 over two case-study watersheds [Ottawa (Canada) and Colorado]. For the Colorado watershed, there was a noticeable shift toward higher temperatures, and the delta, weighted resample, and hybrid translations all were better at capturing the observed temperatures than was an approach that used climatological values. For the Ottawa watershed, the observed temperatures over the period of prediction were only subtly different than the climatological values; therefore, the difference between the translation methods was less noticeable. The advantages and disadvantages of the manipulation and translation approaches are discussed, as well as how their use will depend on the user context. The authors emphasize that skill evaluations should be tailored to particular applications and identify additional steps that are needed before the decadal temperature predictions can be readily incorporated into applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the second part of a three-part paper on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that evaluates the twentieth-century simulations of intraseasonal to multidecadal variability and teleconnections with North American climate. Overall, the multimodel ensemble does reasonably well at reproducing observed variability in several aspects, but it does less well at capturing observed teleconnections, with implications for future projections examined in part three of this paper. In terms of intraseasonal variability, almost half of the models examined can reproduce observed variability in the eastern Pacific and most models capture the midsummer drought over Central America. The multimodel mean replicates the density of traveling tropical synoptic-scale disturbances but with large spread among the models. On the other hand, the coarse resolution of the models means that tropical cyclone frequencies are underpredicted in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. The frequency and mean amplitude of ENSO are generally well reproduced, although teleconnections with North American climate are widely varying among models and only a few models can reproduce the east and central Pacific types of ENSO and connections with U.S. winter temperatures. The models capture the spatial pattern of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) variability and its influence on continental temperature and West Coast precipitation but less well for the wintertime precipitation. The spatial representation of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is reasonable, but the magnitude of SST anomalies and teleconnections are poorly reproduced. Multidecadal trends such as the warming hole over the central-southeastern United States and precipitation increases are not replicated by the models, suggesting that observed changes are linked to natural variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global air temperature has become the primary metric for judging global climate change. The variability of global temperature on a decadal timescale is still poorly understood. This paper examines further one suggested hypothesis, that variations in solar radiation reaching the surface (Rs) have caused much of the observed decadal temperature variability. Because Rs only heats air during the day, its variability is plausibly related to the variability of diurnal temperature range (daily maximum temperature minus its minimum). We show that the variability of diurnal temperature range is consistent with the variability of Rs at timescales from monthly to decadal. This paper uses long comprehensive datasets for diurnal temperature range to establish what has been the contribution of Rs to decadal temperature variability. It shows that Rs over land globally peaked in the 1930s, substantially decreased from the 1940s to the 1970s, and changed little after that. Reduction of Rs caused a reduction of more than 0.2 °C in mean temperature during May to October from the 1940s through the 1970s, and a reduction of nearly 0.2 °C in mean air temperature during November to April from the 1960s through the 1970s. This cooling accounts in part for the near-constant temperature from the 1930s into the 1970s. Since then, neither the rapid increase in temperature from the 1970s through the 1990s nor the slowdown of warming in the early twenty-first century appear to be significantly related to changes of Rs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing the uncertainties surrounding the impacts of anthropogenic climate change requires vetting general circulation models (GCMs) against long records of past natural climate variability. This is particularly challenging in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where short, sparse instrumental data preclude GCM validation on multidecadal to centennial time scales. This two-part paper demonstrates the application of two statistical methodologies to a network of accurately dated tropical climate records to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Niño-3.4 region over the past millennium. While Part I described the methods and established their validity and limitations, this paper presents several reconstructions of Niño-3.4, analyzes their sensitivity to procedural choices and input data, and compares them to climate forcing time series and previously published tropical Pacific SST reconstructions. The reconstructions herein show remarkably similar behavior at decadal to multidecadal scales, but diverge markedly on centennial scales. The amplitude of centennial variability in each reconstruction scales with the magnitude of the A.D. 1860-1995 trend in the target dataset's Niño-3.4 index, with Extended Reconstructed SST, version 3 (ERSSTv3) > the Second Hadley Centre SST dataset (HadSST2) > Kaplan SST; these discrepancies constitute a major source of uncertainty in reconstructing preinstrumental Niño-3.4 SST. Despite inevitable variance losses, the reconstructed multidecadal variability exceeds that simulated by a state-of-the-art GCM (forced and unforced) over the past millennium, while reconstructed centennial variability is incompatible with constant boundary conditions. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals a robust antiphasing between solar forcing and Niño-3.4 SST on bicentennial time scales, but not on shorter time scales. Implications for GCM representations of the tropical Pacific climate response to radiative forcing are then discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the predictive relation between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation across different climate models. Three overturning patterns that are significantly coupled to the AMO on interannual time scales across all climate models are identified using a statistical optimization technique. Including these structures in an autoregressive model extends AMO predictability by 2-9 years, relative to an autoregressive model without these structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of decadal-to-multidecadal ocean subsurface temperature variability are fundamental to improving the understanding of low-frequency climate signals. The present study uses the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) version 2.2.4 product for the period 1950-2007 to identify decadal modes of variability that characterize the upper Indo-Pacific Ocean temperature structure (5-466-m depth). An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the 10-yr low-pass filtered temperature field applied across four depths shows that the dominant mode is characterized by a long-term temperature trend, with warming at the surface and cooling at the thermocline depth connecting the tropical western Pacific with the southern Indian Ocean via the Indonesian Seas. EOF analysis of the detrended 10-yr filtered temperature data and correlation analyses of the EOF time series with established large-scale climate indices identified the interdecadal Pacific oscillation as EOF1, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation as EOF2, and the decadal component of El Niño Modoki as EOF3 (respectively, modes 2, 3, and 4 of the nondetrended data). EOF2 identifies the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation when the analysis is applied to sea surface temperature anomalies only, suggesting that the surface is forced dominantly by fluxes associated with global-scale weather patterns, while the subsurface is dominantly forced by internal dynamics of the Pacific Ocean. This paper demonstrates that the decadal-to-interdecadal temperature variability in SODA has a pronounced vertical extension through the upper ocean. The upper thermocline accounts for most of the variance in the analysis. These results reinforce the importance of examining the subsurface ocean in climate dynamics studies that seek to understand the ocean's role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines changes in the strength of the Walker circulation (WC) using the pressure difference between the western and eastern equatorial Pacific. Changes in observations and in 35 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) are determined. On the one hand, 78% of the models show a weakening of the WC over the twentieth century, consistent with the observations and previous studies using CMIP phase 3 (CMIP3) models. However, the observations also exhibit a strengthening in the last three decades (i.e., from 1980 to 2012) that is statistically significant at the 95% level. The models, on the other hand, show no consensus on the sign of change, and none of the models shows a statistically significant strengthening over the same period. While the reasons for the inconsistency between models and observations is not fully understood, it is shown that the ability of the models to generate trends as large as the observed from internal variability is reduced because most models have weaker than observed levels of both multidecadal variability and persistence of interannual variability in WC strength. In the twenty-first-century future projections, the WC weakens in 25 out of 35 models, under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 9 out of 11 models under RCP6.0, 16 out of 18 models under RCP4.5, and 12 out of 15 models under RCP2.6. The projected decrease is also consistent with results obtained previously using models from CMIP3. However, as the reasons for the inconsistency between modeled and observed trends in the last three decades are not fully understood, confidence in the model projections is reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a review of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) conditions that are associated with meteorological drought on the seasonal time scale in the Greater Horn of Africa (the region 10°S-15°N, 30°-52°E). New findings regarding a post-1998 increase in drought frequency during the March-May (MAM) 'long rains' are also reported. The period 1950-2010 is emphasized, although rainfall and SST data from 1901-2010 are used to place the recent long rains decline in a multidecadal context. For the latter case, climate model simulations and isolated basin SST experiments are also utilized. Climatologically, rainfall exhibits a unimodal June-August (JJA) maximum in west-central Ethiopia with a generally bimodal [MAM and October-December (OND) maxima] distribution in locations to the south and east. Emphasis will be on these three seasons. SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans show the strongest association with drought during OND in locations having a bimodal annual cycle, with weaker associations during MAM. The influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon critically depends on its ability to affect SSTs outside the Pacific. Salient features of the anomalous atmospheric circulation during drought events in different locations and seasons are discussed. The post-1998 decline in the long rains is found to be driven strongly (although not necessarily exclusively) by natural multidecadal variability in the tropical Pacific rather than anthropogenic climate change. This conclusion is supported by observational analyses and climate model experiments, which are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, seasonal variation of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) bifurcation off the Madagascar coast in the upper south Indian Ocean (SIO) is investigated based on a new climatology derived from the World Ocean Database and 19-year satellite altimeter observations. The mean bifurcation integrated over the upper thermocline is around 18°S and reaches the southernmost position in June/July and the northernmost position in November/December, with a north-south amplitude of about 1°. It is demonstrated that the linear, reduced gravity, long Rossby model, which works well for the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation in the North Pacific, is insufficient to reproduce the seasonal cycle and the mean position of the SEC bifurcation off the Madagascar coast. This suggests the importance of Madagascar in regulating the SEC bifurcation. Application of Godfrey's island rule reveals that compared to the zero Sverdrup transport latitude, the mean SEC bifurcation is shifted poleward by over 0.8° because of the meridional transport of about 5 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) between Madagascar and Australia. A time-dependent linear model that extends the Godfrey's island rule is adopted to examine the seasonal variation of the SEC bifurcation. This time-dependent island rule model simulates the seasonal SEC bifurcation well both in terms of its mean position and peak seasons. It provides a dynamic framework to clarify the baroclinic adjustment processes involved in the presence of an island. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper diagnoses the temperature trends in maximum ( Tmax) and minimum temperatures ( Tmin) over a selection of 65 stations spread over the southeast United States (SEUS) from three observed datasets. They are the Cooperative Observer network program (COOP), the COOP data corrected for documented shifts in time of observation (COOP1), and the COOP data additionally corrected for documented changes in instrumentation (COOP2). These 65 stations have been isolated for having the three observed datasets for the same time period from 1948 to 2009. The authors' comparisons suggest that COOP2 displays stronger warming (cooling) trends in Tmax ( Tmin) compared with COOP1 in all four seasons. This is consistent with the expectation from the bias correction applied for the instrument change. In comparison, the differences between COOP and COOP2 are relatively larger. In the spring, summer, and fall seasons, the median Tmax trend is warming in COOP2 while it is cooling in COOP. In the winter season, the median trends of Tmax in the two datasets are positive, but their magnitudes are substantially different. Similarly, in the winter, summer, and fall seasons, the warming trend in Tmin in COOP is contrary to the cooling trend in COOP2. In the spring season, the median trend in Tmin is comparable between the two datasets. COOP2 shows the relationship of trends in Tmin, with the extent of urbanization in these 65 stations, to be statistically significant and to be consistent with expectations from theory in contrast to the COOP data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently Diem questioned the western ridge movement of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) reported in a 2011 paper of Li et al. This reply shows more analysis that further strengthens the conclusions originally put forth by Li et al. Diem''s analysis of the trend in the western ridge of the NASH was based on the data over a 30-yr period (1978-2007), whereas the main conclusions in Li et al. were drawn according to the data over a 60-yr period (1948-2007). Over the last 60 years, the NASH has shown a significant trend of westward movement, the meridional movement of the western ridge of the NASH has enhanced in the recent three decades, and the potential impact of global warming cannot be ruled out in an attempt to explain these changes of the NASH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean heat transport, AMOC variability is thought to play a role in climate variability on a wide range of time scales. This paper focuses on the potential role of the AMOC in climate variability on decadal time scales. Coupled and ocean-only general circulation models run in idealized geometries are utilized to study the relationships between decadal AMOC and buoyancy variability and determine whether the AMOC plays an active role in setting sea surface temperature on decadal time scales. Decadal AMOC variability is related to changes in the buoyancy field along the western boundary according to the thermal wind relation. Buoyancy anomalies originate in the upper ocean of the subpolar gyre and travel westward as baroclinic Rossby waves. When the buoyancy anomalies strike the western boundary, they are advected southward by the deep western boundary current, leading to latitudinally coherent AMOC variability. The AMOC is observed to respond passively to decadal buoyancy anomalies: although variability of the AMOC leads to meridional ocean heat transport anomalies, these transports are not responsible for creating the buoyancy anomalies in the subpolar gyre that drive AMOC variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emerging interest in decadal climate prediction highlights the importance of understanding the mechanisms of decadal to interdecadal climate variability. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of our understanding of interdecadal climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. In particular, the dynamics of interdecadal variability in both oceans will be discussed in a unified framework and in light of historical development. General mechanisms responsible for interdecadal variability, including the role of ocean dynamics, are reviewed first. A hierarchy of increasingly complex paradigms is used to explain variability. This hierarchy ranges from a simple red noise model to a complex stochastically driven coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. The review suggests that stochastic forcing is the major driving mechanism for almost all interdecadal variability, while ocean-atmosphere feedback plays a relatively minor role. Interdecadal variability can be generated independently in the tropics or extratropics, and in the Pacific or Atlantic. In the Pacific, decadal-interdecadal variability is associated with changes in the wind-driven upper-ocean circulation. In the North Atlantic, some of the multidecadal variability is associated with changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In both the Pacific and Atlantic, the time scale of interdecadal variability seems to be determined mainly by Rossby wave propagation in the extratropics; in the Atlantic, the time scale could also be determined by the advection of the returning branch of AMOC in the Atlantic. One significant advancement of the last two decades is the recognition of the stochastic forcing as the dominant generation mechanism for almost all interdecadal variability. Finally, outstanding issues regarding the cause of interdecadal climate variability are discussed. The mechanism that determines the time scale of each interdecadal mode remains one of the key issues not understood. It is suggested that much further understanding can be gained in the future by performing specifically designed sensitivity experiments in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models, by further analysis of observations and cross-model comparisons, and by combining mechanistic studies with decadal prediction studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, sequential importance sampling is used to assess the impact of observations on an ensemble prediction for the decadal path transitions of the Kuroshio Extension. This particle-filtering approach gives access to the probability density of the state vector, which allows the predictive power-an entropy-based measure-of the ensemble prediction to be determined. The proposed setup makes use of an ensemble that, at each time, samples the climatological probability distribution. Then, in a postprocessing step, the impact of different sets of observations is measured by the increase in predictive power of the ensemble over the climatological signal during one year. The method is applied in an identical-twin experiment for the Kuroshio Extension using a reduced-gravity shallow-water model. This study investigates the impact of assimilating velocity observations from different locations during the elongated and the contracted meandering states of the Kuroshio Extension. Optimal observation locations correspond to regions with strong potential vorticity gradients. For the elongated state the optimal location is in the first meander of the Kuroshio Extension. During the contracted state it is located south of Japan, where the Kuroshio separates from the coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a low-order spectral quasigeostrophic (QG) model of the wind-driven ocean circulation is derived and used to analyze the low-order character of the intrinsic low-frequency variability of the midlatitude double-gyre ocean circulation and of the related coherence resonance and phase selection phenomena. The model includes an exponential in the basis functions that allows for westward intensification, retains only four modes in the Galerkin projection, is defined in a rectangular domain, and is forced by deterministic and stochastic winds, thus extending previous low-order QG ocean models. The solution under steady forcing is first obtained, and the results are also analyzed in terms of dynamical systems theory. A homoclinic bifurcation (with the wind amplitude chosen as the control parameter) leads to intrinsic decadal relaxation oscillations (ROs) similar in several respects to those obtained with primitive equation models. The system is then forced with an additional red noise wind, and, in a parameter range preceding the global bifurcation, a coherence resonance scenario very similar to the one found with a primitive equation model of the Kuroshio Extension is obtained: this suggests that such a phenomenon is of low-order character. To study the RO excitation mechanism, a method denoted as phase selection is proposed. The system is forced with additional fictitious periodic winds that produce an emergence of ROs yielding strong phase dependence with the periodic forcing. The subsequent analysis reveals the character of the wind forcing that is most likely to excite a RO. All the results are discussed within the general framework of climate dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interocean exchange of water from the South Atlantic with the Pacific and Indian Oceans is examined using the output from the ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES) during the period 1980-2006. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the role of the interocean exchanges in the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its associated meridional heat transport (MHT) in the South Atlantic. The meridional heat transport from OFES shows a similar response to AMOC variations to that derived from observations: a 1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) increase in the AMOC strength would cause a 0.054 ± 0.003 PW increase in MHT at approximately 34°S. The main feature in the AMOC and MHT across 34°S is their increasing trends during the period 1980-93. Separating the transports into boundary currents and ocean interior regions indicates that the increase in transport comes from the ocean interior region, suggesting that it is important to monitor the ocean interior region to capture changes in the AMOC and MHT on decadal to longer time scales. The linear increase in the MHT from 1980 to 1993 is due to the increase in advective heat converged into the South Atlantic from the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Of the total increase in the heat convergence, about two-thirds is contributed by the Indian Ocean through the Agulhas Current system, suggesting that the warm-water route from the Indian Ocean plays a more important role in the northward-flowing water in the upper branch of the AMOC at 34°S during the study period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, tropopause characteristics observed from tropical to subtropical Southern Hemisphere stations using Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesonde (SHADOZ) data are presented for the 11-yr period of 1998--2008. Three different definitions of tropopause--cold-point tropopause (CPT), lapse-rate tropopause (LRT), and ozone tropopause (OT)--are determined, and their variability for nine different SHADOZ sites is studied for the purpose of evaluating their usefulness as indicators of possible tropopause trends. For each station, the OT is uniquely defined by the ozone gradient and is found to be more variable than either LRT or CPT. The OT roughly coincides with the upper boundary of the region of most active convective mixing over the western Pacific Ocean and with the lower boundary of the transition region from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere that is generally referred to as the tropical tropopause layer. The monthly and year-to-year variations in the tropopause are examined, and the annual cycle in OT, the dominant signal, is described. The distance of separation of the OT from the CPT or LRT is smaller for the tropics (stations at 0°°--15°°S) than for the subtropics (15°°--25°°S). The decadal trend in tropopause heights is measured using a statistical model that accounts for natural variations expressed in El Niñño--Southern Oscillation, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and the Indian Ocean dipole. The decadal trend estimation shows no statistically significant trend for the CPT and LRT in the tropics, in contrast to other studies. A decrease in altitude for the OT is significant. In the subtropics, the CPT and LRT decline significantly, by −−240 and −−190 m (10 yr)−−1, respectively, but the OT increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When the climate system experiences time-dependent external forcing (e.g., from increases in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations), there are two inherent limits on the gain in skill of decadal climate predictions that can be attained from initializing with the observed ocean state. One is the classical initial-value predictability limit that is a consequence of the system being chaotic, and the other corresponds to the forecast range at which information from the initial conditions is overcome by the forced response. These limits are not caused by model errors; they correspond to limits on the range of useful forecasts that would exist even if nature behaved exactly as the model behaves. In this paper these two limits are quantified for the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), with several 40-member climate change scenario experiments. Predictability of the upper-300-m ocean temperature, on basin and global scales, is estimated by relative entropy from information theory. Despite some regional variations, overall, information from the ocean initial conditions exceeds that from the forced response for about 7 yr. After about a decade the classical initial-value predictability limit is reached, at which point the initial conditions have no remaining impact. Initial-value predictability receives a larger contribution from ensemble mean signals than from the distribution about the mean. Based on the two quantified limits, the conclusion is drawn that, to the extent that predictive skill relies solely on upper-ocean heat content, in CCSM3 decadal prediction beyond a range of about 10 yr is a boundary condition problem rather than an initial-value problem. Factors that the results of this study are sensitive and insensitive to are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing concern about the effects of large-scale oceanic atmospheric climate variability, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), on regional hydrology and water resources. In this paper, the effects of PDO on temporal patterns of winter (January–March) flow in northwestern North America (NWNA), which is believed to be a PDO-sensitive region, is studied for the period 1943–2007 using daily streamflow data from a much larger set of 179 stations, compared to previous studies in which only smaller subsets of these stations were analyzed. Time series of winter flows were divided into two nonoverlapping blocks corresponding to change points detected in time series of December–March mean monthly PDO indices. Both parametric and nonparametric measures of correlation and average percentage differences and average standardized differences from the period-of-record mean were explored. Like some of the previous studies, it is found that, on average, winter flows tend to be higher (lower) during the warm (cold) phase of the PDO and that establishes the physical link between large-scale climate variability and basin response. It is shown that the serial structure of time series of PDO indices conforms to that of a stochastic process with long-term persistence (LTP). Based on this finding and the climate–streamflow physical link, it is plausible to investigate temporal variations in winter flows with the LTP hypothesis, in addition to assuming merely independence (IND) or short-term persistence (STP). The results of the analysis demonstrate that the LTP mechanism, in combination with the STP, is able to explain more than half of the significant trends noted, with the IND assumption suggesting that the significance of trends reported in previous studies in NWNA may have been overstated. This result has important implications for future planning of regional water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, more and more record-breaking extreme weather/climate events have been reported from the Asian monsoon region, which have caused tremendous loss of property and lives. In this paper, we analyzed the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability during the Holocene and evaluated future climate extremes in monsoonal China from a paleoclimatic view. We found a significant regime transition to more chaotic fluctuations, with enhanced decadal variability of the ASM since 6.6 ka BP. We suggested the gradual intensification of ENSO was responsible for enhancing the ASM variability since the late mid-Holocene. If the observed relationship of monsoon mean intensity, ENSO and decadal variability of the ASM in the past 11.2 ka continue to exist, enhanced decadal variability of ASM in the future warming world will be expected. As a result, the intensification of daily precipitation extremes, superimposed on enhanced decadal variability of ASM, might make the record-breaking extremes more frequent in the future, increasing the risk of climate-related disasters in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]