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Paper mulberry, Broussonetia papyrifera (L.) L’Hér. ex Vent. (Moraceae), a dioecious species, was transported by humans from Taiwan to the islands of Remote Oceania. Its introduction and cultivation in Remote Oceania was intentional due to its cultural importance as a fiber source for barkcloth textiles. The aim of this study was to explore the genetic diversity and structure of paper mulberry populations within Remote Oceania in order to infer dispersal patterns that may reflect past human interaction among island groups. We present the integrated analysis of 380 samples (313 contemporary and 67 herbarium specimens) collected in Near and Remote Oceania. Genetic characterization was based on a set of ten microsatellites developed for B. papyrifera and complemented with the analysis of the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer ITS-1 sequence, a sex marker and the chloroplast ndhF–rpl32 intergenic spacer. Microsatellite data identify a total of 64 genotypes, despite this being a clonally propagated crop, and show three major dispersal hubs within Remote Oceania, centered on the islands of Fiji, Tonga, and Pitcairn. Of 64 genotypes identified, 55 correspond to genotypes associated to female-sexed plants that probably descend from plants introduced by the prehistoric Austronesian-speaking voyagers. The ratio of accessions to genotypes between herbarium and contemporary samples, suggests recent loss of genetic diversity. In addition to the chloroplast haplotypes described previously, we detected two new haplotypes within Remote Oceania both originating in Taiwan. This is the first study of a commensal species to show genetic structuring within Remote Oceania. In spite of the genetic bottleneck, the presence of only one sex, a timespan of less than 5000 years, and asexual propagation of this crop in Remote Oceania, we detect genetic diversity and regional structuring. These observations suggest specific migration routes between island groups within Remote Oceania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperation among kin is common in animal societies. Kin groups may form by individuals directly discriminating relatives based on kin recognition cues, or form passively through natal philopatry and limited dispersal. We describe the genetic landscape for a primitively eusocial wasp, Polistes dominula, and ask whether individuals choose cooperative partners that are nearby and/or that are genetic relatives. Firstly, we genotyped an entire sub-population of 1361 wasps and found genetic structuring on an extremely fine scale: the probability of finding genetic relatives decreases exponentially within just a few meters of an individual’s nest. At the same time, however, we found a lack of genetic structuring between natural nest aggregations within the population. Secondly, in a separate dataset where ~2000 wasps were genotyped, we show that wasps forced experimentally to make a new nest choice tended to choose new nests near to their original nests, and that these nests tended to contain some full sisters. However, a significant fraction of wasps chose nests that did not contain sisters, despite sisters being present in nearby nests. Although we cannot rule out a role for direct kin recognition or natal nest-mate recognition, our data suggest that kin groups may form via a philopatric rule-of-thumb, whereby wasps simply select groups and nesting sites that are nearby. The result is that most subordinate helpers obtain indirect fitness benefits by breeding cooperatively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the impact of a scholarly paper is of great significance, yet the effect of geographical distance of cited papers has not been explored. In this paper, we examine 30,596 papers published in Physical Review C, and identify the relationship between citations and geographical distances between author affiliations. Subsequently, a relative citation weight is applied to assess the impact of a scholarly paper. A higher-order weighted quantum PageRank algorithm is also developed to address the behavior of multiple step citation flow. Capturing the citation dynamics with higher-order dependencies reveals the actual impact of papers, including necessary self-citations that are sometimes excluded in prior studies. Quantum PageRank is utilized in this paper to help differentiating nodes whose PageRank values are identical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Swarm-founding wasps are endemic and common representatives of neotropical fauna and compose an interesting social tribe of vespids, presenting both complex social characteristics and uncommon traits for a eusocial group, such as the absence of castes with distinct morphology. The paper wasp Protonectarina sylveirae (Saussure) presents a broad distribution from Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, occurring widespread in the Atlantic rainforest and arboreal Caatinga, being absent in the Amazon region. Given the peculiar distribution among swarm-founding wasps, an integrative approach to reconstruct the evolutionary history of P. sylveirae in a spatial-temporal framework was performed to investigate: the presence of genetic structure and its relationship with the geography, the evolution of distinct morphologic lineages and the possible historical event(s) in Neotropical region, which could explain the observed phylogeographic pattern. Individuals of P. sylveirae were obtained from populations of 16 areas throughout its distribution for DNA extraction and amplification of mitochondrial genes 12S, 16S and COI. Analysis of genetic diversity, construction of haplotype net, analysis of population structure and dating analysis of divergence time were performed. A morphometric analysis was also performed using 8 measures of the body of the adult (workers) to test if there are morphological distinction among populations. Thirty-five haplotypes were identified, most of them exclusively of a group and a high population structure was found. The possibility of genetic divergence because of isolation by distance was rejected. Morphological analysis pointed to a great uniformity in phenotypes, with only a small degree of differentiation between populations of south and the remaining. Divergence time analysis showed a Middle/Late Miocene origin, a period where an extensive marine ingression occurred in South America. Divergence of haplogroups began from the Plio/Pleistocene boundary and the last glacial maximum most likely modeled the current distribution of species, even though it was not the cause of genetic breaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citation patterns were examined for Worm et al. 2006 (Science 314∶787–790), a high-impact paper that focused on relationships between marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper sparked much controversy through its projection, highlighted in the press release, that all marine fisheries would be collapsed by 2048. Analysis of 664 citing papers revealed that only a small percentage (11%) referred to the 2048 projection, while 39% referred to fisheries collapse in general, and 40% to biodiversity and ecosystem services. The 2048 projection was mentioned more often in papers published soon after the original paper, in low-impact journals, and in journals outside of fields that would be expected to focus on biodiversity. Citing papers also mentioned the 2048 projection more often if they had few authors (28% of single-author papers vs. 2% of papers with 10 or more authors). These factors suggest that the more knowledgeable the authors of citing papers were about the controversy over the 2048 projection, the less likely they were to refer to it. A noteworthy finding was that if the original authors were also involved in the citing papers, they rarely (1 of 55 papers, 2%) mentioned the 2048 projection. Thus the original authors have emphasized the broader concerns about biodiversity loss, rather than the 2048 projection, as the key result of their study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lack of management experience at the landscape scale and the limited feasibility of experiments at this scale have increased the use of scenario modeling to analyze the effects of different management actions on focal species. However, current modeling approaches are poorly suited for the analysis of viability in dynamic landscapes. Demographic (e.g., metapopulation) models of species living in these landscapes do not incorporate the variability in spatial patterns of early successional habitats, and landscape models have not been linked to population viability models. We link a landscape model to a metapopulation model and demonstrate the use of this model by analyzing the effect of forest management options on the viability of the Sharp-tailed Grouse ( ) in the Pine Barrens region of northwestern Wisconsin (U.S.A.). This approach allows viability analysis based on landscape dynamics brought about by processes such as succession, disturbances, and silviculture. The landscape component of the model (LANDIS) predicts forest landscape dynamics in the form of a time series of raster maps. We combined these maps into a time series of patch structures, which formed the dynamic spatial structure of the metapopulation component (RAMAS). Our results showed that the viability of Sharp-tailed Grouse was sensitive to landscape dynamics and demographic variables such as fecundity and mortality. Ignoring the landscape dynamics gave overly optimistic results, and results based only on landscape dynamics (ignoring demography) lead to a different ranking of the management options than the ranking based on the more realistic model incorporating both landscape and demographic dynamics. Thus, models of species in dynamic landscapes must consider habitat and population dynamics simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although land preservation and promotion of successful regeneration are important conservation actions, their ability to increase population growth rates of slow-growing, long-lived trees is limited. We investigated the demography of Taxus floridana Nutt., a rare understory conifer, in three populations in different ravine forests spanning its entire geographic range along the Apalachicola River Bluffs in northern Florida (U.S.A.). We examined spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and projected population growth rates by using four years of data on the recruitment and survival of seedlings and established stems, and on diameter growth from cross-sections of dead stems. All populations experienced a roughly 10-fold increase in seedling recruitment in 1996 compared with other years. The fates of seedlings and stems between 8 and 16 mm differed among populations. The fates of stems in two other size classes (the 2- to 4-mm class and the 4- to 8-mm class) differed among both populations and years. Individual stems in all populations exhibited similarly slow growth rates. Stochastic matrix models projected declines in all populations. Stochastic matrix analysis revealed the high elasticity of a measure of stochastic population growth rate to perturbations in the stasis of large reproductive stems for all populations. Additional analyses also indicated that occasional episodes of high recruitment do not greatly affect population growth rates. Conservation efforts directed at long-lived, slow-growing rare plants like Taxus floridana should both protect established reproductive individuals and further enhance survival of individuals in other life-history stages, such as juveniles, that often do not appear to contribute greatly to population growth rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is a contribution to the modeling–methodological development of the application of mathematical systems theory in population biology. A discrete-time nonlinear Leslie-type model is considered, where both the reproduction and survival rates decrease as the total population size increases. In this context, the monitoring problem means that, from the observation of the size of certain age classes as a function of time, we want to recover (estimate) the whole state process (i.e., the time-dependent size of the rest of the classes). First, for the linearization approach, conditions for the existence and asymptotic stability of a positive equilibrium are obtained, then the discrete-time observer design method is applied to estimate an unknown state trajectory near the equilibrium, where we could observe a single age class. It is also shown how the observer design can be used to detect an unknown change in the environment that affects the population dynamics. The environmental change is supposed to be generated by additional dynamics (exosystem). Now, the Leslie-type model is extended with this exosystem, and the observer design is applied to this extended system. In this way, an estimation can be obtained for different (constant or periodic) environmental changes as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is an introduction to a special issue of the Journal of Biological Dynamics dedicated to the memory of Abdul-Aziz Yakubu, a mathematician known for his contributions to population biology. The papers in this issue cover a range of topics in mathematical biology, including discrete-time and continuous-time models used to study real-life phenomena in population biology and ecology. The articles were reviewed by independent reviewers and cover subjects such as nutrient-phytoplankton-oysters systems, host-parasitoid systems, predator-prey systems, disease spread, and the modeling of various diseases. The guest editors express their gratitude to the authors and reviewers for their contributions. [Extracted from the article]

Spots of blood are routinely collected from newborn babies onto filter paper called Guthrie cards and used to screen for metabolic and genetic disorders. The archived dried blood spots are an important and precious resource for genomic research. Whole genome amplification of dried blood spot DNA has been used to provide DNA for genome-wide SNP genotyping. Here we describe a 96 well format procedure to extract DNA from a portion of a dried blood spot that provides sufficient unamplified genomic DNA for genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping. We show that SNP genotyping of the unamplified DNA is more robust than genotyping amplified dried blood spot DNA, is comparable in cost, and can be done with thousands of samples. This procedure can be used for genome-wide association studies and other large-scale genomic analyses that require robust, high-accuracy genotyping of dried blood spot DNA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Floating catchment methods have recently been applied to identify priority regions for Automated External Defibrillator (AED) deployment, to aid in improving Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) survival. This approach models access as a supply-to-demand ratio for each area, targeting areas with high demand and low supply for AED placement. These methods incorporate spatial covariates on OHCA occurrence, but do not provide precise AED locations, which are critical to the initial intent of such location analysis research. Exact AED locations can be determined using optimisation methods, but they do not incorporate known spatial risk factors for OHCA, such as income and demographics. Combining these two approaches would evaluate AED placement impact, describe drivers of OHCA occurrence, and identify areas that may not be appropriately covered by AED placement strategies. There are two aims in this paper. First, to develop geospatial models of OHCA that account for and display uncertainty. Second, to evaluate the AED placement methods using geospatial models of accessibility. We first identify communities with the greatest gap between demand and supply for allocating AEDs. We then use this information to evaluate models for precise AED location deployment. Methods: Case study data set consisted of 2802 OHCA events and 719 AEDs. Spatial OHCA occurrence was described using a geospatial model, with possible spatial correlation accommodated by introducing a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior on the municipality-level spatial random effect. This model was fit with Integrated Nested Laplacian Approximation (INLA), using covariates for population density, proportion male, proportion over 65 years, financial strength, and the proportion of land used for transport, commercial, buildings, recreation, and urban areas. Optimisation methods for AED locations were applied to find the top 100 AED placement locations. AED access was calculated for current access and 100 AED placements. Priority rankings were then given for each area based on their access score and predicted number of OHCA events. Results: Of the 2802 OHCA events, 64.28% occurred in rural areas, and 35.72% in urban areas. Additionally, over 70% of individuals were aged over 65. Supply of AEDs was less than demand in most areas. Priority regions for AED placement were identified, and access scores were evaluated for AED placement methodology by ranking the access scores and the predicted OHCA count. AED placement methodology placed AEDs in areas with the highest priority, but placed more AEDs in areas with more predicted OHCA events in each grid cell. Conclusion: The methods in this paper incorporate OHCA spatial risk factors and OHCA coverage to identify spatial regions most in need of resources. These methods can be used to help understand how AED allocation methods affect OHCA accessibility, which is of significant practical value for communities when deciding AED placements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open access publication rates have been steadily increasing over time. In spite of this growth, academics in low income settings struggle to gain access to the full canon of research literature. While the vast majority of open access repositories and funding organizations with open access policies are based in high income countries, the geographic patterns of open access publication itself are not well characterized. In this study, we developed a computational approach to better understand the topical and geographical landscape of open access publications in the biomedical research literature. Surprisingly, we found a strong negative correlation between country per capita income and the percentage of open access publication. Open access publication rates were particularly high in sub-Saharan Africa, but vastly lower in the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and East Asia and the Pacific. These effects persisted when considering papers only bearing authors from within each region and income group. However, papers resulting from international collaborations did have a higher percentage of OA than single-country papers, and inter-regional collaboration increased OA publication for all world regions. There was no clear relationship between the number of open access policies in a region and the percentage of open access publications in that region. To understand the distribution of open access across topics of biomedical research, we examined keywords that were most enriched and depleted in open access papers. Keywords related to genomics, computational biology, animal models, and infectious disease were enriched in open access publications, while keywords related to the environment, nursing, and surgery were depleted in open access publications. This work identifies geographic regions and fields of research that could be priority areas for open access advocacy. The finding that open access publication rates are highest in sub-Saharan Africa and low income countries suggests that factors other than open access policy strongly influence authors’ decisions to make their work openly accessible. The high proportion of OA resulting from international collaborations indicates yet another benefit of collaborative research. Certain applied fields of medical research, notably nursing, surgery, and environmental fields, appear to have a greater proportion of fee-for-access publications, which presumably creates barriers that prevent researchers and practitioners in low income settings from accessing the literature in those fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper introduces structural diversity as a new approach to quantify the complexity of technologies. By modeling technologies as combinatorial networks, a measure of technological complexity is derived that represents the diversity of (sub-)network topologies in these networks. It is further argued that this measure can be empirically approximated with the Network Diversity Score (NDS). The paper also presents an application of this approach to European patent data from 1980 to 2015. On this basis, the measure of structural diversity is shown to replicate a number of stylized facts commonly associated with technological complexity: Complexity increases over time and younger technologies are more complex than older technologies. Complex technologies are also associated to larger R&D efforts and require more collaborative R&D activities. Lastly, when controlling for technologies’ size, technologies scoring high on structural diversity are also shown to concentrate in space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the levels of health system efficiency and their possible determinants across Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries using national-level data for those countries, as well as for other emerging and developed countries. The data are analyzed using data envelopment analyses and econometric advances that yield reliable estimations of the relationship between system efficiency and its potential determinants. We find that there is substantial room for efficiency improvements in the health system of most LAC countries. For example, LAC countries could improve life expectancy at birth by about five years on average at current public spending levels if they followed best practices. Furthermore, the paper assesses what factors amenable to policy act as the main possible levers for some countries to be able to translate a given level of health financing into better performance on access to care and health outcomes. Our econometric analyses suggest that efforts to increase health system efficiency could be focused in a few key policy areas associated with broader access to health services and better outcomes. These areas include general governance aspects, in addition to improvements in specific dimensions of the quality of health system institutions, notably stronger reliance on results-based management in the production of healthcare goods and services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Co-diagnosis of HIV and tuberculosis presents a treatment dilemma. Starting both treatments at the same time can cause a flood of immune response called immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) which can be lethal. But, how long to delay HIV treatment is less understood. In 2011, based on the conclusions of three separate studies, WHO recommended starting HIV treatment earlier for those with later HIV disease progression. This paper conducts a replication study of one of the three studies, by Havlir and colleagues. Using their publicly available data, we were able to replicate most of the results presented in the original paper. In our measurement and estimation analyses we use different estimation techniques to assess the robustness of the results. We find that adjusting for loss to follow-up does not affect the main results of the paper. However, an ANCOVA estimation and an instrumental variable model weaken the main result of the paper of better outcomes with early HIV treatment only for those who are sicker, reducing significance from the 5% to the 10% level. A change-point analysis also detects no changes in effect by timing of HIV treatment initiation or different thresholds of CD4 count for the primary outcome. This result suggests that the choice of start time for HIV treatment initiation should be based on other factors including potential drug interactions, overlapping side effects, a high pill burden and severity of illness rather than CD4 threshold and preset timeframes. While we caution against overgeneralizing, the result of this replication is aligned with more recent studies that show no evidence that early initiation of HIV treatment reduces mortality for any patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Armed conflicts affect more than one in 10 children globally. While there is a large literature on mental health, the effects of armed conflict on children’s physical health and development are not well understood. This systematic review summarizes the current and past knowledge on the effects of armed conflict on child health and development. Methods: A systematic review was performed with searches in major and regional databases for papers published 1 January 1945 to 25 April 2017. Included studies provided data on physical and/or developmental outcomes associated with armed conflict in children under 18 years. Data were extracted on health outcomes, displacement, social isolation, experience of violence, orphan status, and access to basic needs. The review is registered with PROSPERO: CRD42017036425. Findings: Among 17,679 publications screened, 155 were eligible for inclusion. Nearly half of the 131 quantitative studies were case reports, chart or registry reviews, and one-third were cross-sectional studies. Additionally, 18 qualitative and 6 mixed-methods studies were included. The papers describe mortality, injuries, illnesses, environmental exposures, limitations in access to health care and education, and the experience of violence, including torture and sexual violence. Studies also described conflict-related social changes affecting child health. The geographical coverage of the literature is limited. Data on the effects of conflict on child development are scarce. Interpretation: The available data document the pervasive effect of conflict as a form of violence against children and a negative social determinant of child health. There is an urgent need for research on the mechanisms by which conflict affects child health and development and the relationship between physical health, mental health, and social conditions. Particular priority should be given to studies on child development, the long term effects of exposure to conflict, and protective and mitigating factors against the harmful effects of armed conflict on children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model is modified to analyze post-work grocery shopping activity duration. Much previous shopping duration analysis was conducted using the proportional hazard (PH) modeling approach. Once the proportionality assumption was violated, the traditional accelerated failure time (TAFT) model was usually selected as an alternative modeling approach. However, a TAFT model only has covariates with non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard overtime while a PH model only accommodates covariates with proportional and time-independent effects. Neither of them considers the possibility that some of covariates may have proportional and time-independent effects and some may have non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard value in one model. To address this issue, the paper generalizes the TAFT model and develops a modified accelerated failure time (MAFT) model to accommodate both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for activity duration analysis. Checking on the proportionality assumption indicates that the assumption is not valid in the post-work grocery shopping activity data extracted from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) conducted by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). Both TAFT and MAFT models are developed for comparisons and analysis. The empirical and statistical results show that there do exist two different types of covariates affecting shopping activity duration, including covariates only with proportional and time-independent effects (i.e. working duration, commute travel time) and those with non-proportional and time-dependent effects. The MAFT model can capture the subtleties in various types of covariate effects and help better understand how those covariates affect activity duration overtime. This paper also shows the importance to develop a flexible duration model with both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for accurately evaluating travel demand management (TDM) policies, like flexible work hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, computational Grids have proven to be a good solution for processing large-scale, computation intensive problems. However, the heterogeneity, dynamics of resources and diversity of applications requirements have always been important factors affecting their performance. In response to these challenges, this work first builds a Grid job scheduling architecture that can dynamically monitor Grid computing center resources and make corresponding scheduling decisions. Second, a Grid job model is proposed to describe the application requirements. Third, this paper studies the characteristics of commercial interconnection networks used in Grids and forecast job transmission time. Fourth, this paper proposes an application-aware job scheduling mechanism (AJSM) that includes periodic scheduling flow and a heuristic application-aware deadline constraint job scheduling algorithm. The rigorous performance evaluation results clearly demonstrate that the proposed application-aware job scheduling mechanism can successful schedule more Grid jobs than the existing algorithms. For successful scheduled jobs, our proposed AJSM method is the best algorithm for job average processing time and makespan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses text data mining to identify long-term developments in tourism academic research from the perspectives of thematic focus, geography, and gender of tourism authorship. Abstracts of papers published in the period of 1970–2017 in high-ranking tourist journals were extracted from the Scopus database and served as data source for the analysis. Fourteen subject areas were identified using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) text mining approach. LDA integrated with GIS information allowed to obtain geography distribution and trends of scholarly output, while probabilistic methods of gender identification based on social network data mining were used to track gender dynamics with sufficient confidence. The findings indicate that, while all 14 topics have been prominent from the inception of tourism studies to the present day, the geography of scholarship has notably expanded and the share of female authorship has increased through time and currently almost equals that of male authorship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper re-examines health-growth relationship using an unbalanced panel of 17 advanced economies for the period 1870–2013 and employs panel generalised method of moments estimator that takes care of endogeneity issues, which arise due to reverse causality. We utilise macroeconomic data corresponding to inflation, government expenditure, trade and schooling in sample countries that takes care of omitted variable bias in growth regression. With alternate model specifications, we show that population health proxied by life expectancy exert a positive and significant effect on both real income per capita as well as growth. Our results are in conformity with the existing empirical evidence on the relationship between health and economic growth, they, however, are more robust due to the presence of long-term data, appropriate econometric procedure and alternate model specifications. We also show a strong role of endogeneity in driving standard results in growth empirics. In addition to life expectancy, other constituent of human capital, education proxied by schooling is also positively associated with real per capita income. Policy implication that follows from this paper is that per capita income can be boosted through focussed policy attention on population health. The results, however, posit differing policy implications for advanced and developing economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an introductory biology course for undergraduates that heavily incorporates quantitative problem solving in activities and homework assignments. The course is broken up into a series of units, each organized around a motivating biological question or theme. Homework assignments address the theme or question, and typically include a computer programming section as well as a number of written questions. Assessment based on course evaluations suggests that the course was effective in increasing engagement with Biology in a population of STEM-oriented students who are mostly nonmajors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Little is known about the biology and population dynamics of Acanthaster planci in Mexico. Its size is considered relevant because it is related to consumption rate. Objective: To describe the variability of the disk diameter and food type of the species in four sampling sites in the southern Gulf of California. Methods: Each site was visited on a monthly basis from February 2008 to March 2009. Disk diameter was registered from a total of 389 observed specimens. Measurements included only the main disk from side to side where the arms begin. A flexible tape was used to measure disk diameter. Three size groups were created for easier explanations: small (< 15 cm), medium (16-25 cm), and large (> 26 cm). From the total, only 298 asteroids were feeding. Preyed organisms were classified in hard corals, other invertebrates, and algae. The Simpson's Diversity Index was used to calculate the probability that any specimen would be feeding on different types of organisms. A permutational analysis of variance was used to detect differences of disk diameter amongst months and study sites. Results: This population of Acanthaster planci had an average disk diameter = 18.23 + 0.21 cm, with a minimum of 7 cm and maximum of 36 cm. Size structure was unimodal and largely dominated by medium sized specimens, followed by small ones. The larger were less frequent. Disk diameter was statistically higher in February and lower in the last months of the year. San Rafaelito was the site with the largest and Ensenada de Muertos with the smallest organisms. Medium sized individuals were dominant throughout the year and sampling sites. The small sized fed significantly more on Porites panamensis and coralline algae and turf. Larger specimens had the lowest diversity values, more than 90 % of this size group fed on Pocillopora spp. and very few on macroalgae. Medium sized specimens showed the highest diversity, feeding on all the food types, although as expected, many of them were selective to Pocillopora spp. Conclusions: Acanthaster planci can be considered a medium sized species in the study area. There is an evident food selectivity regarding disk diameter size. The three size groups were positively selective to hard corals, but only the small favored Porites panamensis; and together with large individuals, they had the lowest diversity on food types, whereas medium sized asteroids fed on a high diversity of prey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests a generalized class of estimators for the population mean of a qualitative study variable in simple random sampling using information on an auxiliary variable. Asymptotic expressions of bias and mean square error of the proposed class of estimators have been obtained. Asymptotic optimum estimator has been investigated along with its approximate mean square error. It has been shown that the proposed generalized class of estimators are more efficient than all the estimators considered by Singh et al. (2010) in case of a qualitative study variable. In addition theoretical findings are supported by an empirical study based on real population to show the superiority of the constructed estimators over others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While the high prevalence of preterm births and its impact on infant mortality in the US have been widely acknowledged, recent data suggest that even full-term births in the US face substantially higher mortality risks compared to European countries with low infant mortality rates. In this paper, we use the most recent birth records in the US to more closely analyze the primary causes underlying mortality rates among full-term births.Methods and Findings: Linked birth and death records for the period 2010-2012 were used to identify the state- and cause-specific burden of infant mortality among full-term infants (born at 37-42 weeks of gestation). Multivariable logistic models were used to assess the extent to which state-level differences in full-term infant mortality (FTIM) were attributable to observed differences in maternal and birth characteristics. Random effects models were used to assess the relative contribution of state-level variation to FTIM. Hypothetical mortality outcomes were computed under the assumption that all states could achieve the survival rates of the best-performing states. A total of 10,175,481 infants born full-term in the US between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2012, were analyzed. FTIM rate (FTIMR) was 2.2 per 1,000 live births overall, and ranged between 1.29 (Connecticut, 95% CI 1.08, 1.53) and 3.77 (Mississippi, 95% CI 3.39, 4.19) at the state level. Zero states reached the rates reported in the 6 low-mortality European countries analyzed (FTIMR < 1.25), and 13 states had FTIMR > 2.75. Sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) accounted for 43% of FTIM; congenital malformations and perinatal conditions accounted for 31% and 11.3% of FTIM, respectively. The largest mortality differentials between states with good and states with poor FTIMR were found for SUDI, with particularly large risk differentials for deaths due to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (odds ratio [OR] 2.52, 95% CI 1.86, 3.42) and suffocation (OR 4.40, 95% CI 3.71, 5.21). Even though these mortality differences were partially explained by state-level differences in maternal education, race, and maternal health, substantial state-level variation in infant mortality remained in fully adjusted models (SIDS OR 1.45, suffocation OR 2.92). The extent to which these state differentials are due to differential antenatal care standards as well as differential access to health services could not be determined due to data limitations. Overall, our estimates suggest that infant mortality could be reduced by 4,003 deaths (95% CI 2,284, 5,587) annually if all states were to achieve the mortality levels of the best-performing state in each cause-of-death category. Key limitations of the analysis are that information on termination rates at the state level was not available, and that causes of deaths may have been coded differentially across states.Conclusions: More than 7,000 full-term infants die in the US each year. The results presented in this paper suggest that a substantial share of these deaths may be preventable. Potential improvements seem particularly large for SUDI, where very low rates have been achieved in a few states while average mortality rates remain high in most other areas. Given the high mortality burden due to SIDS and suffocation, policy efforts to promote compliance with recommended sleeping arrangements could be an effective first step in this direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale: The lifecycle perspective reminds us that the roots of adult ill-health may start in-utero or in early childhood. Nutritional and infectious disease insults in early life, the critical first 1000 days, are associated with stunting in childhood, and subsequent short adult stature. There is limited or no opportunity for stunted children above 2 years of age to experience catch-up growth. Some previous research has shown short maternal height to lead to adverse birth outcomes. In this paper, we document the association between maternal height and caesarean section, and between maternal height and neonatal mortality in 34 sub-Saharan African countries. We also explore the appropriate height cut-offs to use. Our paper contributes arguments to support a focus on preventing non-communicable risk factors, namely early childhood under-nutrition, as part of the fight to reduce caesarean section rates and other adverse maternal and newborn health outcomes, particularly neonatal mortality. We focus on the Sub-Saharan Africa region because it carries the highest burden of maternal and neonatal ill-health. Methods: We used the most recent Demographic and Health Survey for 34 sub-Saharan African countries. The distribution of heights of women who had given birth in the 5 years before the survey was explored. We adopted the following cut-offs: Very Short (<145.0cm), Short (145.0–149.9cm), Short-average (150.0–154.9cm), Average (155.0–159.9cm), Average-tall (160.0–169.9cm) and Tall (≥170.0cm). Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the contribution of maternal stature to the odds ratio of caesarean section delivery, adjusting for other exposures, such as age at index birth, residence, maternal BMI, maternal education, wealth index quintile, previous caesarean section, multiple birth, birth order and country of survey. We also look at its contribution to neonatal mortality adjusting for age at index birth, residence, maternal BMI, maternal education, wealth index quintile, multiple birth, birth order and country of survey. Results: There was a gradual increase in the rate of caesarean section with decreasing maternal height. Compared to women of Average height (155.0–159.9cm), taller women were protected. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for Tall women was 0.67 (95% CI:0.52–0.87) and for Average-tall women was 0.78 (95% CI:0.69–0.89). Compared to women of Average height, shorter women were at increased risk. The aOR for Short-average women was 1.19 (95% CI:1.03–1.37), for Short women was 2.06 (95% CI:1.71–2.48), and for Very Short women was 2.50 (95% CI:1.85–3.38). There was evidence that compared to Average height women, Very Short and Short women had increased odds of experiencing a neonatal death aOR = 1.95 (95% CI 1.17–3.25) and aOR = 1.66 (95% CI 1.20–2.28) respectively. When we focused on the period of highest risk, the day of delivery and first postnatal day, these aORs increased to 2.36 (95% CI 1.57–3.55) and 2.34 (95% CI 1.19–4.60) respectively. The aORs for the first week of life (early neonatal mortality) were 1.90 (95% CI 1.07–3.36) and 1.83 (95% CI 1.30–2.59) respectively. Conclusions: Short stature is associated with an increased prevalence of caesarean section and neonatal mortality, particularly on the newborn’s first days. These results are even more striking because we know that caesarean section rates tend to be higher among wealthier and more educated women, who are often taller and that the same patterns may hold for neonatal survival; in such cases, adjusting for wealth, education and urban residence would attenuate these associations. Caesarean sections can be lifesaving operations; however, they cost the health system and families more, and are associated with worse health outcomes. We suggest that our findings be used to argue for policies targeting stunting in infant girls and potential catch-up growth in adolescence and early adulthood, aiming to increase their adult height and thus decrease their subsequent risk of experiencing caesarean section and adverse birth outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dispatching of hydro-thermal system is a nonlinear programming problem with multiple constraints and high dimensions and the solution techniques of the model have been a hotspot in research. Based on the advantage of that the artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) can efficiently solve the high-dimensional problem, an improved artificial bee colony algorithm has been proposed to solve DHTS problem in this paper. The improvements of the proposed algorithm include two aspects. On one hand, local search can be guided in efficiency by the information of the global optimal solution and its gradient in each generation. The global optimal solution improves the search efficiency of the algorithm but loses diversity, while the gradient can weaken the loss of diversity caused by the global optimal solution. On the other hand, inspired by genetic algorithm, the nectar resource which has not been updated in limit generation is transformed to a new one by using selection, crossover and mutation, which can ensure individual diversity and make full use of prior information for improving the global search ability of the algorithm. The two improvements of ABC algorithm are proved to be effective via a classical numeral example at last. Among which the genetic operator for the promotion of the ABC algorithm’s performance is significant. The results are also compared with those of other state-of-the-art algorithms, the enhanced ABC algorithm has general advantages in minimum cost, average cost and maximum cost which shows its usability and effectiveness. The achievements in this paper provide a new method for solving the DHTS problems, and also offer a novel reference for the improvement of mechanism and the application of algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Despite evidence of the high prevalence of antibiotic resistant infections in developing countries, studies on the clinical and economic impact of antibiotic resistance (ABR) to inform interventions to contain its emergence and spread are limited. The aim of this study was to analyze the published literature on the clinical and economic implications of ABR in developing countries. Methods: A systematic search was carried out in Medline via PubMed and Web of Sciences and included studies published from January 01, 2000 to December 09, 2016. All papers were considered and a quality assessment was performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale (NOS). Results: Of 27 033 papers identified, 40 studies met the strict inclusion and exclusion criteria and were finally included in the qualitative and quantitative analysis. Mortality was associated with resistant bacteria, and statistical significance was evident with an odds ratio (OR) 2.828 (95%CI, 2.231–3.584; p = 0.000). ESKAPE pathogens was associated with the highest risk of mortality and with high statistical significance (OR 3.217; 95%CIs; 2.395–4.321; p = 0.001). Eight studies showed that ABR, and especially antibiotic-resistant ESKAPE bacteria significantly increased health care costs. Conclusion: ABR is associated with a high mortality risk and increased economic costs with ESKAPE pathogens implicated as the main cause of increased mortality. Patients with non-communicable disease co-morbidities were identified as high-risk populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on the theory of social action in organizational and institutional sociology, this paper examines the behavioral consequences of plural logics of action. It addresses the question based on the empirical case of plural medical systems that are composed of both biomedicine and alternative medicine. Applying mixed methods of a cross-national panel data analysis and a content analysis of medical journal articles, it finds that plural systems affect health outcomes negatively when tensions between biomedicine and alternative medicine are unaddressed. In contrast, plural systems produce tangible health benefits when biomedicine and alternative medicine are coordinated through government policies or by health care organizations/professionals. This paper proposes plurality coordination as an important mechanism that modifies the behavioral consequences of plural logics. This proposition contributes to providing theoretical answers to the sociological puzzle that plural logics of action produce inconsistent behavioral consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prey–predator models are building blocks for many food-chain and food-web models in theoretical population biology. These models can be divided into two groups depending on the nature of predators, namely, specialist predator and generalist predator. Generalist predators can survive in the absence of prey but specialist predators go to extinction. Prey–predator models with specialist predator and Allee effect in prey growth have been investigated by several researchers and various types of interesting dynamics have been reported. In this paper, we consider a prey–predator model with generalist predator subject to Allee effect in predator's growth rate. In general, a prey–predator system with saturating functional response can be destabilized due to the increase of the carrying capacity of prey which is known as paradox of enrichment. In our model with Allee effect in predator growth, we have shown that increase in carrying capacity of prey helps the populations to survive in a coexistence steady state. The considered model is capable of producing bistable dynamics for a reasonable range of parameter values. The complete dynamics of the system are quite rich and all possible local and global bifurcations are studied to understand the dynamics of the model. Analytical results are verified with numerical examples and successive bifurcations are identified with the help of bifurcation diagrams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DNA extraction from minute fungal samples is challenging in all genetic studies. Identification of genetic groups and population biology mostly rely on the laborious production of single conidium isolates or on field samples, including infected plant materials. This paper reports a simple and cost-effective protocol for DNA extraction from individual chasmothecia of Erysiphe necator for subsequent applications. It is a less laborious alternative for genotyping purposes than production and analysis of single conidium isolates or analysis of infected plant material from the field. Using the protocols described here for 186 E. necator samples tested, genetic groups A and B were assigned. Based on CYP51 sequences, all the samples belonged to group B, while TUB2 sequences exhibited SNPs also diagnostic for group A. Additionally, a quantitative real-time PCR detection method of single nucleotide polymorphism in the CYP51 gene associated with DMI fungicide resistance was applied. The A495T marker, associated with DMI resistance, and here reported for the first time from Hungary, was detected by quantitative real-time PCR assays and direct sequencing of CYP51. The methods developed in this study can be applied as routine tests to monitor powdery mildew populations for fungicide resistance and other genetic characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Korea is ranked as 4th among 34 nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development with 102 deaths in road accidents per one million population. This paper aims to investigate the factors associated with road accidents in South Korea. The rainfall data of the Korea Meteorological Administration and road accidents data of Traffic Accident Analysis System of Korea Road Traffic Authority is analyzed for this purpose. In this connection, multivariate regression analysis and ratio analysis with the descriptive analysis are performed to uncover the catastrophic factors involved. In turn, the results reveal that traffic volume is the leading factor in road accidents. The limited road extension of 1.47% compared to the 4.14% per annum growth of the vehicles is resulting in road accidents at such a large scale. The increasing proportion of passenger cars accelerate road accidents as well. 56% of accidents occur by the infringement of safety driving violations. The drivers with higher driving experience tend to have a higher accident ratio. The collected data is analyzed in terms of gender, driver experience, type of violations and accidents as well as the associated time of the accidents when they happen. The results indicate that 36.29% and 53.01% of accidents happen by male drivers in the day and night time, respectively. 29.15% of crashes happen due to safety infringement and violations of 41 to 60 years old drivers. The results demonstrate that population density is associated with the accidents frequency and lower density results in an increased number of accidents. The necessity of the state-of-the-art regulations to govern the urban road traffic is beyond dispute, and it becomes even more crucial for citizens’ relief since in our daily lives road accidents are getting more diverse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates a well-known complex combinatorial problem known as the vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW). Unlike the standard vehicle routing problem, each customer in the VRPTW is served within a given time constraint. This paper solves the VRPTW using an improved artificial bee colony (IABC) algorithm. The performance of this algorithm is improved by a local optimization based on a crossover operation and a scanning strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of the IABC is evaluated on some well-known benchmarks. The results demonstrate the power of IABC algorithm in solving the VRPTW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental stochasticity and climate affect outcomes in evolutionary games, which can thereby affect biological diversity. Our maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of replicator dynamics for morph frequency data from control (25 years) and three experimentally perturbed populations (14 years) of side-blotched lizards yield a 3 × 3 payoff matrix in the generalized Rock-Paper-Scissors family; it has intransitive best replies, and each strategy is its own worst reply. ML estimates indicate significant interactive effects of density and temperature on morph frequency. Implied dynamics feature a powerful interior attractor and recover (for the first time) observed 4-5 year oscillations. Our evolutionary experiment on morph frequency confirms that oscillations are driven by frequency dependent selection, but climate entrains the cycles across the perturbed and control populations within 10 generations. Applying the model across the species range, we find that climate also accounts for morph fixation and mating system diversity, suggesting climate may similarly impact ecosystem diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The language that scientists use to frame biological invasions may reveal inherent bias—including how data are interpreted. A frequent critique of invasion biology is the use of value-laden language that may indicate context bias. Here we use a systematic study of language and interpretation in papers drawn from invasion biology to evaluate whether there is a link between the framing of papers and the interpretation of results. We also examine any trends in context bias in biological invasion research. We examined 651 peer-reviewed invasive species competition studies and implemented a rigorous systematic review to examine bias in the presentation and interpretation of native and invasive competition in invasion biology. We predicted that bias in the presentation of invasive species is increasing, as suggested by several authors, and that bias against invasive species would result in misinterpreting their competitive dominance in correlational observational studies compared to causative experimental studies. We indeed found evidence of bias in the presentation and interpretation of invasive species research; authors often introduced research with invasive species in a negative context and study results were interpreted against invasive species more in correlational studies. However, we also found a distinct decrease in those biases since the mid-2000s. Given that there have been several waves of criticism from scientists both inside and outside invasion biology, our evidence suggests that the subdiscipline has somewhat self-corrected apparent biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predominant clonal evolution (PCE) model seeks to formulate a common population genetics framework for all micropathogens (namely, parasitic protozoa, fungi and yeasts, bacteria, and viruses). It relies on a definition of clonality that is only based on population structure features (namely, strongly restrained genetic recombination). Its clear-cut properties make it of strong interest for applied and basic research, since it permits the definition of stable, clearly delimited units of analysis below the species level: clonal genotypes and discrete genetic subdivisions (“near-clades”). These units of analysis can be used for clinical and epidemiological studies, vaccine and drug design, species description, and evolutionary studies on natural and experimental populations. In this review, the evolutionary and population genetics background of the model will be only briefly mentioned, while considerable emphasis will be given to its practical significance for the study and control of neglected tropical diseases. The goal of the paper is to make this practical usefulness accessible to a broad audience of readers, including scientists who are not evolution specialists, such as epidemiologists, field scientists, and clinicians. For extensive developments about the evolutionary background of the model, see our previous papers [–]. Citations of these former articles lead to the many references quoted in them, which cannot be listed again here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term effects of dam-induced displacement and resettlement are poorly understood. This paper presents a rare longitudinal assessment of the livelihood outcomes of people resettled as a result of a major dam project – the Three Gorges Project in China. It signposts pitfalls that practitioners need to be aware of when planning their own longitudinal monitoring and evaluation (M&E) projects, such as those relating to (i) sample and control group selection, (ii) deciding the timing and frequency of data collection, (iii) mitigating attrition and (iv) accounting for the broader social and policy changes that occur over longer periods when analysing results. The paper argues that longitudinal research is important not only for assessing resettlement outcomes accurately but also for ensuring that ongoing government interventions are adequate and not withdrawn prematurely. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents a novel method on the optimization of bi-objective Flexible Job-shop Scheduling Problem (FJSP) under stochastic processing times. The robust counterpart model and the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) are used to solve the bi-objective FJSP with consideration of the completion time and the total energy consumption under stochastic processing times. The case study on GM Corporation verifies that the NSGA-II used in this paper is effective and has advantages to solve the proposed model comparing with HPSO and PSO+SA. The idea and method of the paper can be generalized widely in the manufacturing industry, because it can reduce the energy consumption of the energy-intensive manufacturing enterprise with less investment when the new approach is applied in existing systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefits and efficacy of control programs for herds infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) have been investigated under various contexts. However, most previous research investigated paratuberculosis control programs in isolation, without modeling the potential association with other dairy diseases. This paper evaluated the benefits of MAP control programs when the herd is also affected by mastitis, a common disease causing the largest losses in dairy production. The effect of typically suggested MAP controls were estimated under the assumption that MAP infection increased the rate of clinical mastitis. We evaluated one hundred twenty three control strategies comprising various combinations of testing, culling, and hygiene, and found that the association of paratuberculosis with mastitis alters the ranking of specific MAP control programs, but only slightly alters the cost-benefit difference of particular MAP control components, as measured by the distribution of net present value of a representative U.S. dairy operation. In particular, although testing and culling for MAP resulted in a reduction in MAP incidence, that control led to lower net present value (NPV) per cow. When testing was used, ELISA was more economically beneficial than alternative testing regimes, especially if mastitis was explicitly modeled as more likely in MAP-infected animals, but ELISA testing was only significantly associated with higher NPV if mastitis was not included in the model at all. Additional hygiene was associated with a lower NPV per cow, although it lowered MAP prevalence. Overall, the addition of an increased risk of mastitis in MAP-infected animals did not change model recommendations as much as failing to consider. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differential Evolution (DE) is powerful for global optimization problems. Among DE algorithms, JADE and its variants, whose mutation strategy is DE/current-to-pbest/1 with optional archive, have good performance. A significant feature of the above mutation strategy is that one individual for difference operation comes from the union of the optional external archive and the population. In existing DE algorithms based on the mutation strategy—JADE and its variants, individuals eliminated from the population are send to the archive. In this paper, we propose a scheme for managing the optional external archive. According to our scheme, two subpopulations are maintained in the population. Each of them regards the other as the archive. In experiments, our scheme is applied in JADE and two of its variants—SHADE and L-SHADE. Experimental results show that our scheme can enhance JADE and its variants. Moreover, it can be seen that L-SHADE with our scheme performs significantly better than four DE algorithms, CoBiDE, MPEDE, EDEV, and MLCCDE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether tobacco expenditure leads to the crowding out or crowding in of different expenditure items in South Africa. We apply genetic matching to expenditure quartiles of the 2010/2011 South African Income and Expenditure Survey. Genetic matching is a more appealing approach for dealing with the endogeneity of tobacco expenditure that often plagues studies using systems of demand equations. Further, genetic matching provides transparent measures of covariate balance giving the analyst objective means of assessing match success. We find that the poorest tobacco consuming households in South Africa consistently allocate smaller budget shares towards food items than non-smoking households. Specifically, we find that dairy, fruits, nuts and oils are displaced in favour of tobacco expenditure in the two poorest quartiles. Unsurprisingly, food items are never displaced for households in the top two quartiles, given these households’ greater access to resources. Like other studies in the literature, we find that tobacco expenditure consistently crowds-in alcohol across all quartiles confirming the strong complementarities between the two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pepper weevil, Anthonomus eugenii, is a major pest on Capsicum species. Apart from natural spread, there is a risk of spread via international pepper trade. In the Netherlands, a pepper weevil outbreak occurred in 2012 and affected six greenhouses producing different sweet pepper varieties. The following year, a pepper weevil outbreak occurred in Italy. To trace the origin of the Dutch outbreak and to establish if the Dutch and Italian outbreaks were linked, we determined the mitogenomes of A. eugenii specimens collected at outbreak locations, and compared these with specimens from the native area, and other areas where the pest was introduced either by natural dispersal or via trade. The circular 17,257 bp A. eugenii mitogenome comprises thirteen mitochondrial genes typically found in insect species. Intra-species variation of these mitochondrial genes revealed four main mitochondrial lineages encompassing 41 haplotypes. The highest diversity was observed for specimens from its presumed native area (i.e. Mexico). The Dutch outbreak specimens represented three highly similar haplotypes, suggesting a single introduction of the pest. The major Dutch haplotype was also found in two specimens from New Jersey. As the Netherlands does not have pepper trade with New Jersey, it is likely that the specimens sampled in New Jersey and those sampled in the Netherlands originate from a shared source that was not included in this study. In addition, our analysis shows that the Italian and Dutch outbreaks were not linked. The mitochondrial genome is a useful tool to trace outbreak populations and the methodology presented in this paper could prove valuable for other invasive pest species, such as the African fruit moth Thaumatotibia leucotreta and emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Institution-centered accounts of generalized trust rely on the idea that law-breaking and state’s unfairness lower individuals’ propensity to trust fellow citizens because of a weaker confidence in the state. Despite the theoretical relevance attributed to this mediation mechanism, no empirical analysis in the literature has focused on examining its correlational validity. Using data from the European Social Survey (2010), the Quality of Government EU Regional data, and EUROSTAT, this paper assesses the intervening role of institutional trust on the relationship between crime rates, state’s fairness, and generalized trust. Results from a Multilevel SEM (MSEM) mediation analysis indicate that trust in institutions strongly mediates the relationship between violent crimes (i.e. homicide) and generalized trust but not the one between property crimes (i.e. vehicle thefts and robberies) and generalized trust. On the other hand, indicators of fairness (i.e. impartiality and corruption) are all mediated by institutional trust, though impartiality maintains a significant direct effect. Overall, findings support the institutional approach, confirming that the negative relationship between ineffective and unfair institutions and generalized trust passes mostly through people’s lost faith in the state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Excess emissions are pollutant releases that occur during periods of startups, shutdowns or malfunctions and are considered violations of the U.S. Clean Air Act. They are an important, but understudied and under-regulated, category of pollution releases given their frequency and magnitude. In this paper, we examine the demographic correlates of excess emissions, using data from industrial sources in Texas. Methods: We conduct two complementary sets of analyses: one at the census tract level and one at the facility level. At the census tract level, we use a multinomial logit model to examine the relationships between racial, ethnic, and income characteristics and the incidence of excess emissions. At the facility level, we first estimate a logit model to examine whether these characteristics are associated with facilities that emit excess emissions, and then, conditional on the presence of excess emissions, we use ordinary least square regression to estimate their correlation with the magnitude of releases. Results: Across our analyses, we find that the percentage of Black population and median household income are positively associated with excess emissions; percentage of college graduate, population density, median housing value, and percentage of owner-occupied housing unit are negatively associated with excess emissions. We, however, have not found a clear and significant relationship between the percentage of Hispanic population and excess emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Targeted environmental and ecosystem management remain crucial in control of dengue. However, providing detailed environmental information on a large scale to effectively target dengue control efforts remains a challenge. An important piece of such information is the extent of the presence of potential dengue vector breeding sites, which consist primarily of open containers such as ceramic jars, buckets, old tires, and flowerpots. In this paper we present the design and implementation of a pipeline to detect outdoor open containers which constitute potential dengue vector breeding sites from geotagged images and to create highly detailed container density maps at unprecedented scale. We implement the approach using Google Street View images which have the advantage of broad coverage and of often being two to three years old which allows correlation analyses of container counts against historical data from manual surveys. Containers comprising eight of the most common breeding sites are detected in the images using convolutional neural network transfer learning. Over a test set of images the object recognition algorithm has an accuracy of 0.91 in terms of F-score. Container density counts are generated and displayed on a decision support dashboard. Analyses of the approach are carried out over three provinces in Thailand. The container counts obtained agree well with container counts from available manual surveys. Multi-variate linear regression relating densities of the eight container types to larval survey data shows good prediction of larval index values with an R-squared of 0.674. To delineate conditions under which the container density counts are indicative of larval counts, a number of factors affecting correlation with larval survey data are analyzed. We conclude that creation of container density maps from geotagged images is a promising approach to providing detailed risk maps at large scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recently we defined a user-friendly tool to assess complexity of patients hospitalized in medical wards. FCS-1 is an average between the Barthel Index and the Exton-Smith score, while FCS-2 is obtained by using the Charlson score. The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of the FCS to predict mortality in-hospital and after 1-3-6-12-months. In this perspective, we performed comparisons with the validated Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI). Methods: It is a multicenter, prospective observational study, enrolling patients aged over 40, suffering from at least two chronic diseases and consecutively admitted to Internal Medicine departments. For each patient, data from 13 questionnaires were collected. Survival follow-up was conducted at 1-3-6-12 months after discharge. The relationships between cumulative incidences of death with FCS were investigated with logistic regression analyses. ROC curve analyses were performed in order to compare the predictiveness of the logistic models based on FCS with respect to those with MPI taken as reference. Results: A cohort of 541 patients was evaluated. A 10-point higher value for FCS-1 and FCS-2 leads to an increased risk of 1-year death equal to 25.0% and 27.1%, respectively. In case of in-hospital mortality, the relevant percentages were 63.1% and 15.3%. The logistic model based on FCS is significantly more predictive than the model based on MPI (which requires an almost doubled number of items) for all the time-points considered. Conclusions: Assessment of prognosis of patients has the potential to guide clinical decision-making and lead to better care. We propose a new, efficient and easy-to-use instrument based on FCS, which demonstrated a good predictive power for mortality in patients hospitalized in medical wards. This tool may be of interest for clinical practice, since it well balances feasibility (requiring the compilation of 34 items, taking around 10 minutes) and performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among calyptraeid gastropods, males become females as they get older, and egg capsules containing developing embryos are maintained beneath the mother’s shell until the encapsulated embryos hatch. Crepipatella dilatata is an interesting biological model considering that is an estuarine species and thus periodically exposed to elevated environment-physiological pressures. Presently, there is not much information about the reproductive biology and brooding parameters of this gastropod. This paper describes field and laboratory observations monitoring sex changes, brooding frequencies, sizes of brooding females, egg mass characteristics, and embryonic hatching conditions. Our findings indicate that C. dilatata is a direct-developing protandric hermaphrodite, changing from male to female when individuals were between 18 and 20 mm in shell length. At our study site in Quempillén estuary, females were found to be brooding almost continuously throughout the year, having an average maximum of 85% of simultaneous brooding, with a short rest from April through June. No relationship was found between the number of capsules per egg mass and the size of the brooding female. However, capsule size and the number of embryos and nurse eggs were strongly related to female size. The offspring hatched with an average shell length > 1 mm. About 25% of the hatched capsules were found to contain both metamorphosed (juveniles) and non-metamorphosed (veliger) individuals. The sizes of the latter were < 1000 μm. The length of hatching juveniles was inversely related to the number of individuals per capsule, which seems related to differences in the availability of nurse eggs per embryo. Although fecundity per reproductive event of this species is relatively low (maximum approx. 800 offspring per egg mass) compared with those of calyptraeid species showing mixed development, the overall reproductive potential of C. dilatata seems to be high considering that females can reproduce up to 5 times per year, protecting their encapsulated embryos from physical stresses until well-developed juveniles are released into the population, avoiding a dangerous pelagic period prior to metamorphosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bornean orangutan is critically endangered and monitoring its population is needed to inform effective conservation management. In this paper, we present results of 2014–17 aerial nest surveys of the major orangutan populations in Sabah and compare them with baseline data produced during surveys conducted in 2002–03 using similar methods. Our results show three important points: a) by increasing the survey effort (estimated at 15–25% cover), sparsely scattered orangutan sub-populations not recorded in the previous aerial surveys were located and the accuracy of the nest count estimates is expected to improve; b) large populations in the interior forests of Sabah, occupying sustainably managed logged and unlogged forests, have been stable over 15 years and are of vital importance for the species’ conservation; c) fragmented populations located in eastern Sabah, that are surrounded by extensive oil palm plantations, have declined at varying rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion of the human species out of Africa in the Pleistocene, and the subsequent development of agriculture in the Holocene, resulted in waves of linguistic diversification and replacement across the planet. Analogous to the growth of populations or the speciation of biological organisms, languages diversify over time to form phylogenies of language families. However, the dynamics of this diversification process are unclear. Bayesian methods applied to lexical and phonetic data have created dated linguistic phylogenies for 18 language families encompassing ~3,000 of the world’s ~7,000 extant languages. In this paper we use these phylogenies to quantify how fast languages expand and diversify through time both within and across language families. The overall diversification rate of languages in our sample is ~0.001 yr-1 (or a doubling time of ~700 yr) over the last 6,000 years with evidence for nonlinear dynamics in language diversification rates over time, where both within and across language families, diversity initially increases rapidly and then slows. The expansion, evolution, and diversification of languages as they spread around the planet was a non-constant process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]