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The power sector is one of the major CO2-emitting industries in China. It is also the first key emissions control industry included in China's national carbon trading market established in 2021. Therefore, based on the data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2015 to 2022, this study analyzes the impact of the national carbon market policy on the carbon emissions of the power industry based on the generalized Difference-in-Difference (DID) model. Based on the method of text analysis, this paper constructs the carbon market policy intensity index of each region and incorporates it into the DID model. Empirical analysis finds that the national carbon market policy can significantly inhibit the carbon emissions of the power industry. However, the heterogeneity analysis of 30 provinces and cities shows that the national carbon market policy has a significant impact on the regions that already have a carbon pilot, but not on the non-pilot regions. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the national carbon market policy in the power industry emissions control, and also exposes the heterogeneity between regions, providing an important empirical basis for the inclusion of other energy-intensive industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon neutrality agenda requires that carbon lock-in enters an endgame. A well-developed energy system, which is secure, equitable, and sustainable is paramount to getting rid of carbon lock-in and realizing decarbonization. We carry out systematic research to empirically study the possible carbon lock-in reduction effect of energy trilemma based on the instrumental variable-generalized method of moment (IV-GMM) model. We also detect heterogeneous effects in terms of geographical locations and endowments of capital, as well as the impact mechanisms. Moreover, this paper highlights the mediating and threshold role of environmental regulation. We thus get the following conclusions. (1) The paper's primary findings underscore that the continuous increase of energy trilemma exacerbates carbon lock-in and hampers the process of decarbonization; (2) Energy trilemma has a higher stimulating effect on carbon lock-in in provinces that lie in the central region and that have a comparatively low level of physical, social, and human capital; (3) Energy trilemma can also indirectly aggravate carbon lock-in by inhibiting technology innovation and exacerbating carbon emissions intensity; (4) The interaction of environmental regulation and energy trilemma can alleviate the energy trilemma - carbon lock-in nexus, and environmental regulation also shows a significant threshold effect. • We investigate the impact of the energy trilemma on carbon lock-in. • Energy trilemma eradication is an effective way to realize the carbon lock-in endgame. • The nexus between energy trilemma and carbon lock-in is more prominent in provinces with high capital endowments. • Environmental regulation shows significant mediating and threshold effects. • The exacerbate carbon lock-in effect of energy trilemma depends on technology and intensity effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems has been the concern of governments. Integrated energy system (IES) is affected by climate change during his operation, in order to study the impact of climate change on IES and achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems, this paper proposes an integrated machine learning(IML) to forecast the long-term load, then investigates IES costs and carbon emissions in relation to climate, followed by the establishment of carbon peak energy system(CPES) and carbon neutral energy system(CNES), finally the honey badger algorithm is used to optimize the configuration of CPES and CNES. The results show that: IML can accurately make load forecasts. Under climate change, changes in load reduce the cost and carbon emissions of IES, and changes in equipment efficiency increase the cost and carbon emissions of IES. When both are considered, the cost and carbon emissions of IES increase by 1.18% and 0.92% per decade respectively. The costs of CPES and CNES increase by 0.93% and 1% respectively for every 10 years earlier than the year of achievement. To meet China's "double carbon" goal, CPES and CNES need to increase their costs by 1.97% and 2% respectively. • Integrated machine learning proposed for long-term load forecasting. • Studied the impact of system equipment efficiency and load with climate change. • Proposing carbon peaking energy system to achieve the carbon peak goal. • Proposed carbon-neutral energy system to achieve carbon neutrality goal. • The increased costs of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutral were studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emission trading scheme (ETS), the most popular market-based instrument, is widely used to solve carbon emission problems in the world. With the development of carbon market, carbon asset has been a popular financial product to invest and the risk management becomes important for government, regulated enterprises and other investors. As carbon prices have tail characteristics, this paper explores the extremal risks between carbon markets in US, Europe and China using tail dependence correlation coefficients. The empirical analysis demonstrates the tail dependence structure between carbon markets in US. and Europe is the same sign, which indicates that it is unwise to hold these two carbon assets as a portfolio. Moreover, the co-movements between European Union Emission Trade Scheme (EU ETS) and China's carbon markets are partly significant, and the operation mechanisms in China should be improved. In addition, the tail dependence test among the carbon pilots in China shows diversity. Hubei carbon trading pilot, located in central China, has extremal dependence with all other selected pilots for its regulatory program operation. The findings give insight to the carbon market regulars to improve the operation mechanism and are also useful for the investors to manage their portfolios, policymakers to make practically applicable regulations, and relevant organizations to develop procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the overall and time-varying efficiency of China's carbon market, which is crucial for carbon risk management and policymaking. Due to the severe illiquidity problems other pilots face, we first select Shenzhen, Guangdong, and Hubei pilots out of the eight carbon pilots for our study based on the statistical analysis. We then test the overall efficiency of the markets using the LM, CD, and Wild-Bootstrap variance ratio test. The sliding window method is combined with the above three variance ratio test methods to validate the time-varying efficiency. The results prove that the overall efficiency of the three carbon pilots has not yet reached a weak form. And we observe that the short-term efficiency is time-varying and may be weak-form. The study further found Hubei to be the most efficient carbon pilot, followed by Guangdong and Shenzhen. Finally, this paper conducts a qualitative analysis on the low efficiency from five aspects namely carbon trading rules, market liquidity, price volatility, trading volume, and types of trading products. Several conclusions and recommendations are proposed for policymakers and investors. • Sliding window method is combined with a series of variance ratio test methods. • The overall and time-varying efficiency of China's carbon market is tested. • China's carbon market has not reached weak-form efficiency. • Hubei is the most efficient carbon pilot. • Reasons for low efficiency are analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has emerged as one of the most important environmental issues worldwide. As the world's biggest developing country, China is participating in combating climate change by promoting a low carbon economy within the context of global warming. This paper summarizes the pathways of China's low carbon economy including the aspects of energy, industry, low carbon cities, circular economy and low carbon technology, afforestation and carbon sink, the carbon emission trading market and carbon emission reduction targets. There are many achievements in the implementation of low carbon policies. For example, carbon emission intensity has been reduced drastically along with the optimizing of energy and industry structure and a nationwide carbon trading market for electricity industry has been established. However, some problems remain, such as the weakness of public participation, the ineffectiveness of unified policies for certain regions and the absence of long-term planning for low carbon cities development. Therefore, we propose some policy recommendations for the future low carbon economy development in China. Firstly, comprehensive and long-term planning should be involved in all the low carbon economy pathways. Secondly, to coordinate the relationship between central and local governments and narrow the gap between poor and rich regions, different strategies of carbon emission performance assessment should be applied for different regions. Thirdly, enterprises should cooperate with scientific research institutions to explored low carbon technologies. Finally, relevant institutions should be regulated to realize comprehensive low carbon transition through reasonable and feasible low carbon pathways in China. These policy recommendations will provide new perspectives for China's future low carbon economy development and guide practices for combating climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]