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Background In an earlier paper from 2019, this author concluded that successful eradication of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) from Ireland by 2030 would be unlikely, given control strategies in place at that time plus the addition of badger vaccination. He argued that additional measures will be needed, broadly focusing on bTB risks from wildlife, risk-based cattle controls, and industry commitment. This paper considers these points in further detail. Main text Ongoing monitoring of the badger vaccination programme (which is progressively being rolled out nationally) and associated research will be critical, with a focus both on programme inputs and outcomes. The direct contribution of cattle movements to bTB restrictions in Ireland has been evaluated. However, it is the indirect role of cattle movements in bTB restrictions that is likely of greater importance, particularly towards the latter phase of the eradication programme. In other national programmes, a range of risk-based approaches have been used to address the challenge of residual infection in cattle (that is, the presence of animals with persistent but undetected infection), and similar approaches are needed in Ireland. A number of authors have highlighted the critical importance of industry commitment to programme success, and the key role of programme governance to achieving this. In this commentary, the author briefly considers experiences from Australia and New Zealand in this regard. The author also reflects on the challenge of uncertainty in decision-making, the relevance to Ireland of lessons from other countries, and the potential contribution of new methodologies in support of the national programme. Conclusions 'The tragedy of the horizon' was a term first used in the context of climate change, referring to the costs imposed on future generations that the current generation has no direct incentives to fix. This concept is equally relevant to bTB eradication in Ireland, where current decisions will have long-term consequences for future generations, including both the general public (through the Exchequer) and future Irish farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The globalizing connections that defined the European Bronze Age in the second millennium BC either ended or abruptly changed in the decades around 1200 BC. The impact of climate change at 3.2 ka on such social changes has been debated for the eastern Mediterranean. This paper extends this enquiry of shifting human–climate relationships during the later Bronze Age into Europe for the first time. There, climate data indicate that significant shifts occurred in hydroclimate and temperatures in various parts of Europe ca. 3.2 ka. To test potential societal impacts, I review and evaluate archaeological data from Ireland and Britain, the Nordic area, the Carpathian Basin, the Po Valley, and the Aegean region in parallel with paleoclimate data. I argue that 1200 BC was a turning point for many societies in Europe and that climate played an important role in shaping this. Although long-term trajectories of sociopolitical systems were paramount in defining how and when specific societies changed, climate change acted as a force multiplier that undermined societal resilience in the wake of initial social disjunctures. In this way, it shaped, often detrimentally, the reconfiguration of societies. By impacting more directly on social venues of political recovery, realignment, and reorganization, climate forces accentuate societal crises and, in some areas, sustained them to the point of sociopolitical collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managed retreat is increasingly advocated as a means to promote resilience and adaptation to climate change. However, there are various uncertainties and challenges associated with the impacts of displacement and attachments to place. In this context, it is useful to study past examples of relocation to understand how these challenges have been addressed. This paper draws on a case study relocation scheme which took place in Ireland following major flooding in 1954. This represented a radical and comprehensive approach to relocation which sought to address the root causes of vulnerability. The analysis shows that this comprehensive approach was made possible through a connection between managed retreat and land reform. The scheme also faced opposition linked to attachments to place and property. This led to compromises and a failure to fully address the effects of flooding on livelihoods but contributed to resilience through ensuring that family and community ties remained intact. The paper's distinctive contributions are its analysis of the requirements of transformative approaches to adaptation and relocation, its identification of challenges associated with place and property even in the context of such transformative approaches, and its adding of historical depth to contemporary debates on climate adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate projections indicate that European summer precipitation may change considerably in the future. Southern Europe can expect substantial drying while Northern Europe could actually become wetter. Model spread and internal variability in these projections are large, however, and unravelling the processes that underlie the changes is essential to get more confidence in these projections. Large-scale circulation change is one of the contributors to model spread. In this paper we quantify the role of future large-scale circulation changes to summer precipitation change, using a 16-member single-model ensemble obtained with the regional climate model RACMO2, forced by the global climate model EC-Earth2.3 and the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Using the method of circulation analogues three contributions to the future precipitation change are distinguished. The first is the precipitation change occurring without circulation change (referred to as the thermodynamic term). This contribution is characterised by a marked drying-to-wetting gradient as one moves north from the Mediterranean. The second contribution measures the effects of changes in the mean circulation. It has a very different spatial pattern and is closely related to the development of a region of high pressure (attaining its maximum west of Ireland) and the associated anti-cyclonic circulation response. For a large area east of Ireland including parts of western Europe, it is the major contributor to the overall drying signal, locally explaining more than 90% of the ensemble-mean change. In regions where the patterns overlap, the signal-to-noise ratio of the total change is either enhanced or reduced depending on their relative signs. Although the second term is expected to be particularly model dependent, the high-pressure region west of Ireland also appears in CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble-mean projections. The third contribution records the effects of changes in the circulation variability. This term has the smallest net contribution, but a relatively large uncertainty. The analogues are very good in partitioning the ensemble-mean precipitation change, but describe only up to 40% of the ensemble-spread. This demonstrates that other precipitation-drivers (SST, spring soil moisture etc.) will generally strongly influence trends in single climate realisations. This also re-emphasises the need for large ensembles or using alternative methods like the Pseudo Global Warming approach where signal to noise ratios are higher. Nevertheless, identifying the change mechanisms helps to understand the future uncertainties and differences between models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change exhibits a clear trend of escalating frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing heightened risks to drainage systems along the existing road networks. However, very few studies to date have investigated the consequences of projected future changes in rainfall on main road drainage and the resulting risk of road flooding. The work presented in this paper builds on the limited research by introducing a probabilistic model for assessing the impact of climate change on road drainage systems, incorporating climate uncertainty and drainage system variation. The probabilistic scenario-based model and associated framework offer a practical and innovative method for estimating the impact of short-duration storms under future climates for 2071–2100, in the absence of fine-resolution spatio-temporal data. The model also facilitates the assessment of the effectiveness of a climate adaptation strategy. An illustrative case-study of a road drainage system located in the south of Ireland is presented. It was found that the probability of road flooding during intense rainfall is projected to surpass the current acceptable limits set by Irish standards. Assessment of a proactive climate adaptation strategy implemented in 2015 indicated it may need to be adjusted to further reduce climate change impacts and optimise adaptation costs. • Climate change can impact extreme rainfall patterns, and resulting road flooding. • A flooding model is developed incorporating climate and drainage system uncertainty. • A quantitative climate risk analysis framework is proposed for road drainage. • The effectiveness of a climate adaptation strategy adopted in Ireland is quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One area where climate adaptation policies are proving difficult to design and implement is at the coast. On one hand, some of the most severe impacts of climate change are being recorded at the coast – especially through erosion and flooding – whilst on the other hand, these areas represent complex land-sea planning and policy interfaces. This paper analyses the coherency of policies along Ireland's coast from a climate adaptation perspective. Results suggest that many policies are developed in an ad-hoc fashion around the needs of single sectors. Improved policy coherence at all levels of governance is required to address this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we provide an overview of achievements in forest research in Ireland carried out by various agencies over the past 60 yr. Many of the outcomes of the research have ensured that policy and practice are well-founded, and many of the research results form the basis of current forest standards and practice. Forest research has, and will continue to have, a significant role in national policy development and international reporting commitments. The achievement of future goals and targets is increasingly dependent on the maintenance of the goods and services that forests provide; these can be enhanced through the establishment of new forests and by appropriate management of the resource (e.g. The EU Green Deal and EU Forest Strategy). We outline the current state of knowledge which can be used to inform afforestation goals and the importance of tree improvement, forest management and forest protection to improve competitiveness and sustainability. Research into forestry and carbon provides a focus on the opportunities and challenges of climate change to Irish forestry. Future efforts will involve longer-term monitoring of environmental change commensurate with the forest rotation to reduce the uncertainties associated with climate change. Research into forestry economics, attitudinal surveys and behavioural studies may help inform the achievement of future policy goals. Reducing the impacts of biotic attack through efficient surveying, disease monitoring and assessing future risk is likely to be the focus of future research effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change are multiple and fundamental. Decisions made today may result in irreversible damage to the planet's biodiversity and ecosystems, the detrimental impacts of which will be borne by today's children, young people and those yet unborn (future generations). The use of citizens' assemblies (CAs) to tackle the issue of climate change is growing. Their remit is future focused. Yet is the future in the room? Focusing on a single case study, the recent Irish CA and Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action (JOCCA) deliberations on climate action, this paper explores the extent to which children, young people and future generations were included. Its systemic analysis of the membership of both institutions, the public submissions to them and the invited expertise presented, finds that the Irish CA was 'too tightly coupled' on this issue. This may have been beneficial in terms of impact, but it came at the expense of input legitimacy and potentially intergenerational justice. Referring to international developments, it suggests how these groups may be included through enclave deliberation, institutional innovations, design experiments and future-oriented practice.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Keeping within the temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement on climate action will be a significant challenge. Nuclear power generation may contribute to achieving these targets, however, there are significant environmental, economic and health risks attached. Using qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper explores how nuclear power generation is framed in the Irish print media, and discusses the implications of these frames for how nuclear power is perceived within the context of climate change mitigation in Ireland. Two Irish broadsheet papers, the Irish Times and the Irish Independent were selected for data collection, focusing on Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents. The prevalence of informational and balanced articles suggest that to some extent, an open debate on nuclear is already occurring. Nevertheless, significantly more articles take an anti-nuclear stance (34% in 1986 and 27.5% in 2011) than pro-nuclear (2.1% in 1986 and 3.3% in 2011), reflecting the lack of public appetite for nuclear power. This may limit the potential for a wider debate to occur within the context of reducing domestic emissions. Considering the urgency of addressing climate change, a full and balanced societal debate on how nuclear power, other energy alternatives (e.g. wind) and the energy sector more generally, can contribute to national climate policy targets may be necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Feeding the world's population while minimising the contribution of agriculture to climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing modern society. This challenge is particularly pronounced for dairy production where the carbon footprint of products and the mitigation costs are high, relative to other food stuffs. This paper reviews a number of mitigation measures that may be adopted by dairy farmers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from their farms. A simulation model is developed to assess the cost-benefit of a range of mitigation measures. The model is applied to data from Ireland, a country with a large export-oriented dairy industry, for a range of farms including top, middle and bottom performing farms from a profitability perspective. The mitigation measures modelled included animal productivity, grass production and utilisation, better reproductive performance, early compact calving, reduced crude protein, decreased fertiliser N, protected urea, white clover, slurry tank cover and low emission slurry spreading (LESS). The results show that over half of the greenhouse gas abatement potential and most of the ammonia abatement potential were realised with cost-beneficial measures. Animal and feed-related measures that increased efficiency drove the abatement of GHG emissions. Low-emission slurry spreading was beneficial for the bottom and middle one-third of farms, while protected urea and reducing nitrogen use accounted for most of the ammonia abatement potential for the most profitable farms. Results showed that combining mitigation measures resulted in a decrease of 23%, 19%, and 12% in GHG emissions below 2020 levels for the bottom, middle, and top performing dairy farms, respectively. The findings imply that top dairy farms, that are already managed efficiently and optimally, may struggle to achieve the national and international GHG reduction targets with existing technologies and practices. • The top dairy group may struggle to achieve the 2030 and future GHG reductions targets with existing technologies and practices • 56%–86% of emissions reduction achieved through mitigation measures that were cost effective, net-zero for all three groups • Farm-level MACCs can account for variability in GHG and NH3 mitigation potentials and costs, that are often missed at the sectoral or country level. • The study found that combining mitigation measures resulted in a decrease of 23%, 19%, and 12% in GHG emissions below 2020 levels for the bottom, middle, and top dairy groups, respectively • Farm-level marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) are useful for understanding the capacity to reduce gaseous emissions from specific agricultural systems or farms [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amid pressure for climate action worldwide, processes of deliberative democracy are being called upon to address public policy complexities, include citizens in decision-making, restore faith in public institutions and enhance governance processes. The citizens' assembly model is lauded internationally for the much-needed structure it provides to support bottom-up governance efforts as well as the potential for effective citizen engagement on complex topics. The Irish Citizens' Assembly, which took place from 2016 to 2018, is heralded as an example of best practice in design and execution. Yet, there is a dearth in analysis of its form, structure, impact and content, particularly in the climate crisis context. This paper examines one element of the deliberative democracy process that aimed to include a wider breadth of publics beyond the 99 citizens randomly selected to take part: the public submissions invited as part of the Citizens' Assembly process. In total, 1185 submissions were received on the topic of climate change. Our study undertakes a comprehensive content analysis of these submissions. Specifically, we explore (1) the content and concerns foregrounded within the submissions, (2) the frames and rhetorical strategies employed and (3) the stakeholders and scales called upon for climate action. The study identifies trends, preoccupations and salience within the corpus of written submissions and expands our understanding of citizen perceptions of climate science and policy. We offer both operational lessons for others aiming to enact similar deliberative forums as well as communications lessons for wider efforts to deepen public engagement on the climate crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years' time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDFs) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed, and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments/plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate science has become more ambitious in recent years as global awareness about the environment has grown. To better understand climate, historical climate(e.g. archived meteorological variables such as temperature, wind, water, etc.) and climate-related data (e.g. geographical features and human activities) are widely used by today's climate research to derive models for an explainable climate change and its effects. However, such data sources are often dispersed across a multitude of disconnected data silos on the Web. Moreover, there is a lack of advanced climate data platforms to enable multi-source heterogeneous climate data analysis, therefore, researchers must face a stern challenge in collecting and analyzing multi-source data. In this paper, we address this problem by proposing a climate knowledge graph for the integration of multiple climate data and other data sources into one service, leveraging Web technologies (e.g. HTTP) for multi-source climate data analysis. The proposed knowledge graph is primarily composed of data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's daily climate summaries, OpenStreetMap, and Wikidata, and it supports joint data queries on these widely used databases. This paper shows, with a use case in Ireland and the United Kingdom, how climate researchers could benefit from this platform as it allows them to easily integrate datasets from different domains and geographical locations. • Interoperable knowledge graphs advances integrating and updating multi-source data. • OpenStreetMap data enhance the geographical features of the knowledge graph data. • Exploring the knowledge graph structures visually is necessary for non-experts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture is responsible for the bulk of Ireland's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the potential to mitigate some of these emissions through the adoption of more efficient farm management practices may be hampered by farmers' awareness and attitude towards climate change and agriculture's role in contributing to GHG emissions. This paper presents results from a survey of 746 Irish farmers in 2014, with a view to understanding farmers' awareness of, and attitudes to, climate change and GHG emissions. Survey results show that there was a general uncertainty towards a number of questions related to agricultural GHG emissions, e.g. if tilling of land causes GHG emissions, and that farmers were reluctant to take action to reduce GHG emissions on their farm. To further explore farmers' attitudes towards climate change, a multinomial logit model was used to examine the socio-economic factors that affect farmers' willingness to adopt an advisory tool that would show the potential reduction in GHG emissions from the adoption of new technologies. Results show that farmers' awareness of human-induced global climate change was positively related to the tool's adoption. Key policy insights Irish farmers are generally not sufficiently aware of the impact of their activities on climate change. A quarter of farmers believed that climate change will only impact on their business in the long-term; such an attitude may lead to a reluctance amongst these farmers to adopt management practices that reduce GHG emissions. Awareness of climate change affects positively the adoption of new tools to reduce GHG emissions on farmers' farms. IT literacy affects willingness to adopt new tools to address GHG emissions. Reception of agri-environmental advice can have a positive influence on farmers' willingness to adopt new GHG emission abatement tools. Farmers in receipt of environmental subsidies are more likely to adopt new abatement tools, either because they are more environmentally conscious or because the subsidy raised their environmentally consciousness. Willingness to adopt differs between different farm enterprises; operating dairy enterprise increases the willingness to adopt new advisory mitigation tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are new, and increasing, pressures facing coastal communities, including socio-economic and environmental change, exploitation of resources, urban development and the predicted impacts of climate change. The cumulative and interacting effect of these challenges may result in socio-economic and physical decline. This paper responds to calls for more detailed investigation into coastal regeneration by providing empirical evidence (interviews, observations, policy analysis) on specific coastal resorts on the island of Ireland. In doing so it builds on an emerging area of research that suggests coastal regeneration may be theoretically and practically informed by "resilience thinking". The case study findings highlight differing, and sometimes competing values, perceptions and priorities at the local level and highlight the challenges facing striving resorts seeking to find their contemporary identity and enhance their resilience to future change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Road transport is a major source of CO 2 emissions in Ireland and accounts for almost 96% of the total CO 2 emissions from the transport sector. Following the recent adopted UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories [24/CP.19], this study applied the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006 IPCC GLs) tier 3 approach to estimate CO 2 emissions from road transport at the vehicle category level, for the first time in Ireland. For this, disaggregated datasets were prepared based on year of vehicle registration and mileage since registration of the vehicle. Such an approach provided a more realistic national scenario in comparison to the use of average mileage degradation in emission calculations. This investigation comprised a recalculation of previous emissions estimates (1990–2012) and an estimation of CO 2 emissions in 2013 using a previously unavailable level of data disaggregation for vehicle mileage as well as using vehicle class specific data and an improved bottom-up estimation methodology in COPERT. Historic vehicle fleet data were restructured, annual mileage data were estimated in relation to the fleet data and back extrapolated using a regression approach. The results showed that the mileage degradation was not only subject to fuel technology, engine size, and age but also the emissions class and vehicle category. It was also observed that the disaggregated level of data provided a different CO 2 emissions split among the vehicle categories than that of previous estimations which were based on an aggregated level of data. Previous emissions inventories (1990–2012) were shown to have underestimated the share from diesel fuelled passenger cars by more than 56% in 2012. Diesel fuelled passenger cars were also found to account for the majority of CO 2 emissions from road transport activities in Ireland in 2013. The level and trend assessment showed that emissions from Euro-II and Euro-III classed vehicles especially for passenger cars, which have a significant contribution to the total emission in 2013 have caused an increase in fleet level emissions in Ireland. In addition, the results also showed that the emissions share from Light Duty Vehicles and Heavy Duty Vehicles were overestimated by previous investigations. This paper highlights the importance of the resolution of data used in emissions inventory preparation which may impact upon future projections and policy formulation. The findings of this investigation are also discussed in relation their implications for road transport policy, including carbon taxation and future policy options aimed at achieving EU emissions target in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of the interactions between global environmental and socioeconomic changes in shaping vulnerability and exposure to hazards is now increasingly recognised. However, relatively little attention has been focused on the ways in which these interactions help to shape planning and policy in response to both processes. This paper examines how the intersections between the twin crises of economic recession and climate change are influencing hazards mitigation policy and climate change adaptation planning in three of Ireland's coastal cities. The cities of Dublin, Cork, and Galway are important case studies for this analysis due to the magnitude of socioeconomic and environmental changes they have witnessed in recent years. The paper begins by using the double-exposure framework to analyse how the interactions between global environmental and socioeconomic change have produced the contextual environment within which decision making and policy formation take place. This is followed by the presentation and analysis of the results of semistructured interviews with local decision makers and stakeholders. These illustrate that the interactions between environmental change and economic crisis have created the material and ideological conditions in which a neoliberal growth centred discourse of economic development dominates all areas of decision making and-policy. This has important implications for environmental policy and planning in cities, promoting a vision of a modern competitive city in which technological solutions are the preferred means of addressing flood risks. These decisions in turn reshape the exposures and vulnerabilities of local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mainstreaming of climate change through processes of media communication and political advocacy carries with it an imagined public. Drawing on qualitative data from 11 focus groups and 19 life history interviews carried out in the Republic of Ireland1in 2010, the paper reveals a significant mismatch between the perceived characteristics of this imagined audience, and the practices and experiences of a socially embedded Irish public. Moreover, we observe the emergence of restrictive forms of discourse around climate change that leave little room for connecting with the topic, thereby serving to delegitimise it as a matter of public interest. Given the necessity for climate action and decarbonisation efforts that reach across diverse social and cultural arenas, we see potential for a broadening of public debate in line with key principles of deliberative democracy, with a view to achieving a more open and inclusive politics of climate change. Although we recognise the limitations of mainstream deliberative democracy thinking, including its inherent rationalism, we believe that its explicit commitment to inclusiveness and transparency offers a viable alternative to current disengagement and exclusion of citizens from meaningful climate change debate and action. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Salt marshes typically develop on low-energy coasts under the influence of the tide. However, there are peat salt-marshes along the west coast of Ireland that formed in an inherently different way. This paper examines the ontogeny of these salt- marshes and highlights their uniqueness both in an Irish and global context. The peat of these marshes formed in postglacial times when climatic conditions were such that ombrogenic blanket bogs formed along the western Atlantic coast of Ireland. A subsequent marine transgression caused a shift from freshwater to saline conditions, and these bogs now support salt-marsh vegetation. These systems have been termed "Fringe" marshes in the Irish salt-marsh inventory. Unlike other organogenic salt-marshes in Europe, they formed under predominantly freshwater conditions, thus making them unique in geological foundation. This paper examines the complexity of natural controls on salt-marsh systems and relates this to the ecological character of fringe marshes. It emphasises that their position on the western Atlantic seaboard, coupled with peat substrate and its inherent properties, could drive a unique ecological character. Ongoing and future threats to these habitats are discussed. The term "Fringe" is used internationally in many other contexts and therefore does not specifically describe these peat substrate marshes. In order to distinguish the peat salt-marshes of the west coast of Ireland from those formed under different conditions, the term "Ombrogenic Atlantic Salt-Marsh" is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper assesses the impacts of a targeted policy designed to influence car purchasing trends towards lower CO2 emitting vehicles. Vehicle registration tax and annual motor tax rates in Ireland changed in July 2008 from being based on engine size to emissions performance of cars. This paper provides a one year ex-post analysis of the first year of the tax change, tracking the change in purchasing trends arising from the measure related to specific CO2 emissions, engine size and fuel, and the implications for car prices, CO2 emissions abatement, and revenue gathered. While engine efficiency improvements had been offset by purchasing trends towards larger and generally less efficient cars in the past, with the average MJ/km remaining constant from 2000 to 2007, this analysis shows that in the first year of the new taxation system the average specific emissions of new cars fell by 13% to 145g/km. This was brought about, not by a reduction in engine size, but rather through a significant shift to diesel cars. Despite an unexpected reduction in car sales due to a recession in 2008, the policy measure has had a larger than anticipated impact on CO2 emissions, calculated to be 5.9ktCO2 in the first year of the measure. The strong price signal did however result in a 33% reduction in tax revenue from VRT, in financial terms amounting to a drop of €166 million compared to a baseline situation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Interest in renewable energy in Ireland has increased continually over the past decade. This interest is due primarily to security of supply issues and the effects of climate change. Ireland imports over 90% of its primary energy consumption, mostly in the form of fossil fuels. The exploitation of Ireland''s vast indigenous renewable energy resources is required in order to reduce this over-dependence on fossil fuel imports to meet energy demand. Various targets have been set by the Irish government to incorporate renewable energy technologies into Ireland''s energy market. As a result of these targets, the development in wind energy has increased substantially over the past decade; however this method of energy extraction is intermittent and unpredictable. Ireland has an excellent tidal current energy resource and the use of this resource will assist in the development of a sustainable energy future. Energy extraction using tidal current energy technologies offers a vast and predictable energy resource. This paper reviews the currently accepted tidal current energy resource assessment for Ireland. This assessment was compiled by Sustainable Energy Ireland in a report in 2004. The assessment employed a 2-dimensional numerical model of the tidal current velocities around Ireland, and from this numerical model the theoretical tidal current energy resource was identified. With the introduction of constraints and limitations, the technical, practical, accessible and viable tidal current energy resources were obtained. The paper discusses why the assessment needs updating including the effect on the assessment of the current stage of development of tidal current turbines and their deployment technology. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A computable general equilibrium model with specific detail in taxation and energy use is developed in this paper to quantify the impact of the implementation of energy taxation to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland. Benchmark data combining physical energy and emissions data and economic data in the form of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) had to be compiled from various data sources, because energy and pollution accounts from the SEEA are not available for Ireland. We find that the reduction target for energy related CO2 emissions in Ireland of 25.8% compared to 1998 levels can be achieved with a carbon energy tax of 10–15 euros per tonne of CO2. Though fuel switching is important in meeting the target, this result is more sensitive to the possibilities for producers to substitute away from energy use. Welfare would fall but only by small percentages. Production and consumption patterns would change more significantly, with a shift in demand from fuels with a high emission factor to energy sources with a lower carbon-intensity and from energy to other commodities. This paper confirms that a carbon energy tax leads to greater emission reductions than an equivalent uniform energy tax. The latter has a stronger negative impact on the less polluting energy sectors whereas the carbon tax greatly stimulates the use of renewable energy and reduces the use of peat and coal. The new SAM, the model and the application to energy taxes contribute to a better informed debate on environmental policy in Ireland. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The utilisation of renewable energy resources for power generation is extremely important for Ireland due to the lack of indigenous fossil fuel resources. A micro-wind turbine is by far the most commonly used grid-connected micro-renewable electricity generation system for domestic applications in Ireland, followed by solar PV. Unfortunately, neither a single micro-wind turbine nor a single solar PV system can provide a continuous power supply due to variations in weather and climate conditions. The coupling of these two systems however can improve the power supply reliability by using the complementary characteristics of wind and solar energy. In this paper, a micro-renewable electricity-generation-system integration technique, tailored for applications in Ireland but generally applicable, is presented. Net present value is the parameter used to identify the optimal system. The optimal system can be a mono system, formed from a single micro-wind turbine or a single solar PV system, or a hybrid system formed from a combination of both. A renewable energy requirement is a constraint used in the integration to eliminate systems that cannot provide sufficient energy from renewable energy resources. The integration technique is applied to find the optimal system, under current Irish conditions, that can be formed from six sample micro-wind turbines and/or solar PV systems assembled from three sample solar PV modules. The analyses show that, with a 50% renewable energy requirement, the optimal system is a mono system containing a 2.4 kW micro-wind turbine; however, critically, the system is not economically viable. Four parameter studies assessing the effect of household electrical load, imported electricity price, exported electricity tariff and wind speed have also been conducted. From these studies it is seen that the most effective way to improve the financial performance of all systems is to offer a higher exported electricity tariff; installing a mono/hybrid system containing a micro-wind turbine in a location with a good wind resource can also have a significant effect. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The vegetation of Europe has undergone substantial changes during the course of the Holocene epoch, resulting from range expansion of plants following climate amelioration, competition between taxa and disturbance through anthropogenic activities. Much of the detail of this pattern is understood from decades of pollen analytical work across Europe, and this understanding has been used to address questions relating to vegetation-climate feedback, biogeography and human impact. Recent advances in modelling the relationship between pollen and vegetation now make it possible to transform pollen proportions into estimates of vegetation cover at both regional and local spatial scales, using the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA), i.e. the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites) and the LOVE (LOcal VEgetation) models. This paper presents the compilation and analysis of 73 pollen stratigraphies from the British Isles, to assess the application of the LRA and describe the pattern of landscape/woodland openness (i.e. the cover of low herb and bushy vegetation) through the Holocene. The results show that multiple small sites can be used as an effective replacement for a single large site for the reconstruction of regional vegetation cover. The REVEALS vegetation estimates imply that the British Isles had a greater degree of landscape/woodland openness at the regional scale than areas on the European mainland. There is considerable spatial bias in the British Isles dataset towards wetland areas and uplands, which may explain higher estimates of landscape openness compared with Europe. Where multiple estimates of regional vegetation are available from within the same region inter-regional differences are greater than intra-regional differences, supporting the use of the REVEALS model to the estimation of regional vegetation from pollen data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper introduces a reference hydrometric network for Ireland and examines the derived flow archive for evidence of climate-driven trends in mean and high river flows. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen tests are applied to eight hydroclimatic indicators for fixed and variable (start and end date) records. Spatial coherence and similarities of trends with rainfall suggest they are climate driven; however, large temporal variability makes it difficult to discern widely-expected anthropogenic climate change signals at this point in time. Trends in summer mean flows and recent winter means are at odds with those expected for anthropogenic climate change. High-flow indicators show strong and persistent positive trends, are less affected by variability and may provide earlier climate change signals than mean flows. The results highlight the caution required in using fixed periods of record for trend analysis, recognizing the trade-off between record length, network density and geographic coverage. EditorZ.W. Kundzewicz;Associate editorH. Lins CitationMurphy, C., Harrigan, S., Hall, J., and Wilby, R.L., 2013. Climate-driven trends in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland.Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 755–772. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Petrodiesel fuels are complex mixtures whose composition differ from refinery to refinery and according to the type of crude oil processed. They are prepared by blending two types of streams viz. straight run distillate and distillates from upgrading of residues. In order to make diesel fuels to work over a wide variety of working conditions, its properties are fixed to a standard value, which may differ in different countries according to their climate conditions. Also, to reduce pollution, some rules and regulations have been framed so as to limit the amount of harmful components as sulfur, nitrogen in the fuel. Till 1990s, sulfur was accepted up to a maximum value of 500ppm. But keeping the green environment in view, the regulations have been made more stringent and presently sulfur should not be present beyond 50ppm or even less in some countries. So, it is required to be removed through different processes. But during those processes many components responsible for lubricity also get removed, leading to the breakdown of fuel distribution pump, engine failure, etc. So, the lubricity is required to be regained with the help of anti-wear additives. The paper reflects light on different types of bio as well as chemical anti-wear additives as lubricity enhancement in ULSD fuels, is still a challenging task for researchers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: At the millennial scale bog surface wetness (BSW) records show a clear Holocene climate event stratigraphy, with major phases comparable with other regional climate proxies such as chironomid inferred temperature records. Moving towards the centennial scale, however, and towards the limits of chronological certainty within the records, regional differences are apparent which likely reflect the more heterogeneous precipitation patterns which occur on shorter timescales. The BSW data presented in this paper are reconstructed from testate amoebae assemblages from central Ireland and are compared with other regional records. The results suggest that this region is in phase with the North of Ireland in terms of timings and durations of climate change, but the comparisons are less clear with a stacked and tuned record from Northern Britain that shows an apparent offset compared to the Irish records. This may reflect variations in past regional precipitation or be a function of the tuning and stacking process. The broad phases of comparison between the Irish records, and the extension of the central Irish record back to 6000 cal BP, allow comparisons with low frequency temperature reconstructions from chironomids, which also show a broad level of correlation, with cooler temperatures relating to wetter BSW at centennial to millennial timescales. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Irish government has outlined plans for 10% of the national road fleet to be powered by electricity by 2020. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential reduction in road traffic related emissions due to commuting in the Greater Dublin Area under different electric vehicle market penetration scenarios. The results indicate that the introduction of electric vehicles offers the potential for reductions in all road traffic related emissions. However, the time required for electric vehicles to acquire a significant share of the fleet, suggests that they will have a limited impact on climate change and urban air quality for at least the next decade. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Although northern peatlands cover only 3% of the land surface, their thick peat deposits contain an estimated one-third of the world's soil organic carbon (SOC). Under a changing climate the potential of peatlands to continue sequestering carbon is unknown. This paper presents an analysis of 6 years of total carbon balance of an almost intact Atlantic blanket bog in Glencar, County Kerry, Ireland. The three components of the measured carbon balance were: the land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO) and methane (CH) and the flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported in a stream draining the peatland. The 6 years C balance was computed from 6 years (2003-2008) of measurements of meteorological and eddy-covariance CO fluxes, periodic chamber measurements of CH fluxes over 3.5 years, and 2 years of continuous DOC flux measurements. Over the 6 years, the mean annual carbon was −29.7±30.6 (±1 SD) g C m yr with its components as follows: carbon in CO was a sink of −47.8±30.0 g C m yr; carbon in CH was a source of 4.1±0.5 g C m yr and the carbon exported as stream DOC was a source of 14.0±1.6 g C m yr. For 2 out of the 6 years, the site was a source of carbon with the sum of CH and DOC flux exceeding the carbon sequestered as CO. The average C balance for the 6 years corresponds to an average annual growth rate of the peatland surface of 1.3 mm yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Early Medieval period in Ireland (c. A.D. 400–1150) has been the subject of much archaeological and historical study. The recent application of various forms of archaeological sciences, as well as palaeoenvironmental studies, to the archaeological record have, however, added fresh impetus to this study area. It seems increasingly evident that significant changes to economy and society occurred during this period and were not recorded in detail in the contemporary documentary sources. This paper will attempt to outline those changes and to assess whether, or to what extent, they were influenced by climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Models are increasingly used to examine the potential impacts of management and climate change in agriculture. Our aim in this paper was to assess the applicability of the field-DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC) model in Irish agriculture. This study provides the results of that evaluation, which is a prerequisite for using the model for assessing management impacts in the future. The DNDC model was tested against seasonal and annual data sets of nitrous oxide flux from a spring barley field and a cut and grazed pasture at the Teagasc Oak Park Research Centre, Co. Carlow, Ireland. In the case of the arable field, predicted fluxes of N2O agreed well with measured fluxes for medium to high fertilizer input (70–160 kg N ha−1) but poorly described those fluxes from zero fertilizer treatments. In terms of cumulative flux values, the relative deviation of the predicted fluxes from the measured values was a maximum of 6% for the highest N fertilizer inputs but increased to 30% for the medium N and more than 100% for the zero N fertilizer treatments. There is a linear correlation of predicted against measured flux values for all fertilizer treatments (r 2 =0.85) but the model underestimated the seasonal flux by 24%. Incorporation of literature values from a range of different studies on arable and pasture land did not significantly improve the regression. The description by DNDC for measured fluxes of N2O from reduced tillage plots was poor with underestimation of up to 55%. For the cut and grazed pasture the relative deviations of predicted to measured fluxes were 150 and 360% for fertilized and unfertilized plots. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the poor model fit is due to DNDC overestimating WFPS and the effect of initial soil organic carbon (SOC) on N2O flux. As the arable and grassland soils differed only in SOC content, reducing SOC of the grassland field to that of the arable field value significantly improved the fit of the model to measured data such that the relative deviations decreased to 9 and 5% respectively. Sensitivity analysis highlighted air temperature as the main determinant of N2O flux, an increase in mean daily air temperature of 1.5 °C resulting in almost a 65% increase in the annual cumulative flux. This is interesting as with future global warming, N2O flux from the soil will have a strong positive feedback. It can be concluded that DNDC is unsuitable for predicting N2O from Irish grassland due to its overestimation of WFPS and effect of SOC on the flux. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper builds on existing theory and proposes a framework to identify vulnerability to climate change in food systems by examining historic cases where common environmental problems caused famine. Cases presented are (1) Ireland's Potato Famine, (2) El Niño induced famines during the Colonial period, and (3) Ethiopia between 1965 and 1997. Three factors stand out as common in each. Prior to each famine: (1) there were very few ways that people could obtain a living in the worst affected regions; (2) livelihoods in famine stricken communities came to depend on highly specialized agro-ecosystems that were sensitive to environmental change; (3) institutions failed to provide adequate safety nets to protect livelihoods from failure. This analysis suggests that vulnerability to climate change in food systems can be assessed by looking at agro-ecosystems, livelihoods and institutions. Local conditions, however, mean that ways of measuring these three factors will vary from place to place. As a result, direct comparisons are difficult. By conceptualizing these three variables as the axes of a three dimensional "vulnerability" space, it is possible to compare regions and look at trends over time by studying the paths through this "space" as traced by changes at the agroecosystem, livelihood, and institutional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

River basins in Great Britain and Ireland have been characterized by periods of hillslope and valley floor instability during the Holocene, reflecting sensitivity to both climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast to climatic controls, which have been relatively well documented, human impacts on and interactions with river basins remain unclear. There is now, however, a growing impetus to elucidate more fully the impact of anthropogenic activity on sediment supply and runoff, given that land-use change is thought to have exacerbated recent flooding in the UK (eg, the 'Millennium' floods of 2000). The aim of this paper is to critically review the significance of Holocene land use on hillslope and valley floor stability in Great Britain and Ireland. The most widely reported impacts of land-use change on geomorphic activity include hillslope erosion and gully development, valley floor alluviation, river channel incision and elevated water tables. In the majority of cases, however, causal relationships are difficult to establish, due primarily to inadequate dating control. Even where geomorphic instability can be linked to land-use change, it is apparent that eroded material is often stored as colluvium, which together with evidence of diachronus hillslope and valley floor instability, raises important questions and identifies uncertainties regarding the dynamics and extent of sediment transfer within river basins. Such uncertainty has important implications for understanding how river basins will behave in response to future environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much uncertainty is derived from the application of conceptual rainfall runoff models. In this paper, HYSIM, an ‘off-the-shelf’ conceptual rainfall runoff model, is applied to a suite of catchments throughout Ireland in preparation for use in climate impact assessment. Parameter uncertainty is assessed using the GLUE methodology. Given the lack of source code available for the model, parameter sampling is carried out using Latin hypercube sampling. Uncertainty bounds are constructed for model output. These bounds will be used to quantify uncertainty in future simulations as they include error derived from data measurement, model structure and parameterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change policies are informed by contributions from public, private and civil society organisations at a range of scales from the local to the global. Such policy formation has come to be termed multilevel governance. Transnational networks of local authorities are an emerging feature of multilevel governance and they have been heralded as a means to improve the implementation of climate change policy on the ground. However empirical evaluation of these transnational climate change networks is geographically limited and no research examining their impact in Ireland has been conducted. In response this paper considers the significance of European climate change networks within Ireland's climate change strategy. It concludes that these formal transnational networks have had limited impact to date due to ongoing negotiations about the politics of scale and responsibility with respect to climate change policies in Ireland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cronin, K.M.; Devoy, R.J.N., and Gault, J., 2007. Modelling estuarine morphodynamics on the south coast of Ireland, Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50 (Proceedings of the 9th International Coastal Symposium), 474 – 479. Gold Coast, Australia, ISSN 0749.0208 Several important studies of coastal processes in Ireland exist, establishing the patterns of sea-level change, the impacts of storminess, erosion and sedimentation rates. Approximately half of Ireland's coastline is deemed sensitive to erosion under climate change. This paper presents work on the collection of field data and the setting up of a process-based model (Delft3D) to study morphological change in Courtmacsherry estuary on the south-coast of Ireland. Bathymetric and topographic surveys have been carried out and monitoring of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport regimes is being undertaken to validate and calibrate the models. Results from the hydrodynamic model simulations agree well with field measurements. The outputs from this modelling work shall be used to run an abstracted model (Asmita). Results from this study will be used to examine the drivers and processes responsible for changes occurring in Courtmacsherry and as example of estuarine-bay functioning in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]